'Score it upon my taille': the use (and abuse) of tallies by the medieval Exchequer

The paper traces the evolution of the tally from a receipt for cash payments into the treasury, to proof of payments made by royal officials outside of the treasury and finally to an assignment of revenue to be paid out by royal officials. Each of these processes is illustrated by examples drawn from the Exchequer records and explains their significance for royal finance and for historians working on the Exchequer records.

How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in Hydrological ensemble prediction

The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are ‘toughest to beat’ and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all catchment sizes. Simpler meteorological benchmarks are particularly useful for high flows. Recommendations for EFAS are to move to routine use of meteorological persistency, an advanced meteorological benchmark and a simple meteorological benchmark in order to provide a robust evaluation of forecast skill. This work provides the first comprehensive evidence on how benchmarks can be used in evaluation of skill in probabilistic hydrological forecasts and which benchmarks are most useful for skill discrimination and avoidance of naïve skill in a large scale HEPS. It is recommended that all HEPS use the evidence and methodology provided here to evaluate which benchmarks to employ; so forecasters can have trust in their skill evaluation and will have confidence that their forecasts are indeed better.

‘I like playing on my trampoline; it makes me feel alive’ valuing physical activity: perceptions and meanings for children and implications for primary schools

This study investigated perceptions that children aged 6–10 years (n = 83) have of what it means to be physically active. Ideographic research was conducted utilising drawings and interviews to understand values that are placed on participating in physical activity (PA). The article questions the idea that whilst it may be commonly accepted by academics that there is a need to be active for health, little research has considered what this may actually mean for the child. Drawing on Bourdieu, the article utilises key concepts within the analysis of ‘capital' to frame an understanding of how children experience PA. Findings suggest that central to children's experiences is the place of social interaction and reciprocation. The article investigated the production and transference of forms of capital: physical, cultural and social. The potential for such concepts to be exploited by schools is discussed with reference to physical education and opportunities offered during free play.

‘It Was All My Fault’: negative interpretation bias in depressed adolescents

The extent to which cognitive models of development and maintenance of depression apply to adolescents is largely untested, despite the widespread application of Cognitive Behavior Therapy (CBT) for depressed adolescents. Cognitive models suggest that negative cognitions, including interpretation bias, play a role in etiology and maintenance of depression. Given that cognitive development is incomplete by the teenage years and that CBT is not superior to non-cognitive treatments in the treatment of adolescent depression, it is important to test the underlying model. The primary aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that interpretation biases are exhibited by depressed adolescents. Four groups of adolescents were recruited: clinically-referred depressed (n = 27), clinically-referred non-depressed (n = 24), community with elevated depression symptoms (n = 42) and healthy community (n = 150). Participants completed a 20 item ambiguous scenarios questionnaire. Clinically-referred depressed adolescents made significantly more negative interpretations and rated scenarios as less pleasant than all other groups. The results suggest that this element of the cognitive model of depression is applicable to adolescents. Other aspects of the model should be tested so that cognitive treatment can be modified or adapted if necessary.

My generation(s): cycles, branding and renewal in E4’s 'Skins'

In an era of fragmenting audience and diversified viewing platforms, youth television needs to move fast and make a lot of noise in order to capture and maintain the attention of the teenage viewer. British ensemble youth drama Skins (E4, 2007-2013) calls attention to itself with its high doses of drugs, chaotic parties and casual attitudes towards sexuality. It also moves quickly, shedding its cast every two seasons as they graduate from school, then renewing itself with a fresh generation of 16 year old characters - three cycles in total. This essay will explore the challenges of maintaining audience connections whilst resetting the narrative clock with each cycle. I suggest that the development of the Skins brand was key to the programme’s success. Branding is particularly important for an audience demographic who increasingly consume their television outside of broadcast flow and essential for a programme which renews its cast every two years. The Skins brand operate as a framework, as the central audience draw, have the strength to maintain audience connections when it ‘graduates’ those characters they identify with at the close of each cycle and starts again from scratch. This essay will explore how the Skins brand constructs a cohesive identity across its multiple generations, yet also consider how the cyclic form poses challenges for the programme’s representations and narratives. This cyclic form allows Skins to repeatedly reach out to a new audience who comes of age alongside each new generation and to reflect shifts in British youth culture. Thus Skins remains ever-youthful, seeking to maintain an at times painfully hip identity. Yet the programme has a somewhat schizophrenic identity, torn between its roots in British realist drama and surrealist comedy and an escapist aspirational glamour that shows the influence of US Teen TV. This combination results in a tendency towards a heightened melodrama at odds with Skins claims for authenticity - its much vaunted teenage advisors and young writers - with the cyclic structure serving to amplify the programme’s excessive tendencies. Each cycle wrestles with a need for continuity and familiarity - partly maintained through brand, aesthetic and setting - yet a desire for freshness and originality, to assert difference from what has gone before. I suggest that the inevitable need for each cycle to ‘top’ what has gone before results in a move away from character-based intimacy and the everyday to high-stakes drama and violence which sits uncomfortably within British youth television.

Inflame my heart (by p38-MAPK).

Although many studies have explored the stimuli which promote hypertrophic growth or death in cardiac myocytes and the signaling pathways which they activate, the mechanisms by which these pathways promote the pathophysiological responses are still obscure. The mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascades (in which MAPKs are phosphorylated and activated by upstream MAPK kinases [MKKs] which are, in turn, phosphorylated and activated by MKK kinases [MKKKs]) were identified in the early- to mid-1990s as potentially key regulatory pathways in cardiac myocyte pathophysiology.1,2 The principal MAPKs investigated in cardiac myocytes are the extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1/2 (ERK1/2), c-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNKs), and p38-MAPKs. ERK1/2 are potently activated by hypertrophic stimuli, whereas JNKs and p38-MAPKs are potently activated by cellular stresses (eg, oxidative stress). However, there is cross-talk such that JNKs and p38-MAPKs are activated by hypertrophic stimuli and ERK1/2 are activated by cellular stresses, and the contribution of each pathway to the overall cardiac myocyte response is not entirely clear. MAPKs phosphorylate a number of known transcription factors to alter their transactivating activities thus, presumably, influencing gene expression to elicit the cellular response.3 Nevertheless, the immediate consequences (ie, the transcription factors which are phosphorylated) and downstream consequences (ie, genes with altered expression) of MAPK signaling in the heart or specifically in cardiac myocytes are still largely unknown. To start to address this issue for the p38-MAPK pathway in the (rat) heart (Figure), Tenhunen et al4 directly injected adenoviruses encoding wild-type (WT) p38-MAPKα together …