History of diabetes and risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis from the international head and neck cancer epidemiology consortium.

BACKGROUND: A history of diabetes is associated with an increased risk of several types of cancers. Whether diabetes is a risk factor for head and neck cancer (HNC) has received little attention. METHODS: We pooled data from 12 case-control studies including 6,448 cases and 13,747 controls, and estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between diabetes and HNC, adjusted for age, education level, sex, race/ethnicity, study center, cigarette smoking, alcohol use and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: We observed a weak association between diabetes and the incidence of HNC overall (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.95-1.24). However, we observed a modest association among never smokers (OR, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.22-2.07), and no association among ever smokers (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.83-1.11); likelihood ratio test for interaction p=0.001. CONCLUSIONS: A history of diabetes was weakly associated with HNC overall, but we observed evidence of effect modification by smoking status, with a positive association among those who never smoked cigarettes. Impact: This study suggests that glucose metabolism abnormalities may be a HNC risk factor in subgroups of the population. Prospective studies incorporating biomarkers are needed to improve our understanding of the relationship between diabetes and HNC risk, possibly providing new strategies in the prevention of HNC.

Perception et communication du risque: du diabète à la maladie cardiovasculaire [Risk perception and communication: from diabetes to cardiovascular diseases].

Evidence-based medicine has enabled to approach disease in a more rational and scientific way. Clinical research has identified behaviours and risk factors that could cause disease often "silent" at the beginning, such as diabetes. Despite the clear impact of these evidences on public health, it seems that the individual risk perception level remains weak. To mention as well, the health professionals very often have a different views, which makes it difficult to communicate the risk with patients. In this article we describe the principles of risk perception, the diabetes related risk perception concerning cardiovascular complications, and suggest some practical strategies and tools which could improve risk communication in the everyday practice.

Three essays on liquidity risk

Preface In this thesis we study several questions related to transaction data measured at an individual level. The questions are addressed in three essays that will constitute this thesis. In the first essay we use tick-by-tick data to estimate non-parametrically the jump process of 37 big stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange, and of the CAC 40 index. We separate the total daily returns in three components (trading continuous, trading jump, and overnight), and we characterize each one of them. We estimate at the individual and index levels the contribution of each return component to the total daily variability. For the index, the contribution of jumps is smaller and it is compensated by the larger contribution of overnight returns. We test formally that individual stocks jump more frequently than the index, and that they do not respond independently to the arrive of news. Finally, we find that daily jumps are larger when their arrival rates are larger. At the contemporaneous level there is a strong negative correlation between the jump frequency and the trading activity measures. The second essay study the general properties of the trade- and volume-duration processes for two stocks traded on the Paris Stock Exchange. These two stocks correspond to a very illiquid stock and to a relatively liquid stock. We estimate a class of autoregressive gamma process with conditional distribution from the family of non-central gamma (up to a scale factor). This process was introduced by Gouriéroux and Jasiak and it is known as Autoregressive gamma process. We also evaluate the ability of the process to fit the data. For this purpose we use the Diebold, Gunther and Tay (1998) test; and the capacity of the model to reproduce the moments of the observed data, and the empirical serial correlation and the partial serial correlation functions. We establish that the model describes correctly the trade duration process of illiquid stocks, but have problems to adjust correctly the trade duration process of liquid stocks which present long-memory characteristics. When the model is adjusted to volume duration, it successfully fit the data. In the third essay we study the economic relevance of optimal liquidation strategies by calibrating a recent and realistic microstructure model with data from the Paris Stock Exchange. We distinguish the case of parameters which are constant through the day from time-varying ones. An optimization problem incorporating this realistic microstructure model is presented and solved. Our model endogenizes the number of trades required before the position is liquidated. A comparative static exercise demonstrates the realism of our model. We find that a sell decision taken in the morning will be liquidated by the early afternoon. If price impacts increase over the day, the liquidation will take place more rapidly.

Strategies de traitement dans l'hypertension arterielle essentielle. [Treatment strategies in essential arterial hypertension]

Essential hypertension is a very heterogeneous disease. The availability of antihypertensive drugs lowering blood pressure by various mechanisms allows most often to tailor the treatment, i.e. to find for each patient a drug regimen that is both efficient and well tolerated. Frequently medications given as monotherapy are not effective enough so that the use of drug combinations is required. When combined, low doses of antihypertensive agents are generally sufficient, so that tolerability is optimally preserved. Unfortunately many patients do not have their blood pressure controlled during antihypertensive therapy. These patients therefore do not benefit maximally from the cardiovascular protection afforded by blood pressure lowering. It is also imperative to correct all cardiovascular risk factors in each hypertensive patient. Such a multifactorial approach is known to improve effectively the prevention of cardiovascular diseases.

Therapeutic strategies to improve control of hypertension.

Blood pressure is poorly controlled in most European countries and the control rate is even lower in high-risk patients such as patients with chronic kidney disease, diabetic patients or previous coronary heart disease. Several factors have been associated with poor control, some of which involve the characteristic of the patients themselves, such as socioeconomic factors, or unsuitable life-styles, other factors related to hypertension or to associated comorbidity, but there are also factors directly associated with antihypertensive therapy, mainly involving adherence problems, therapeutic inertia and therapeutic strategies unsuited to difficult-to-control hypertensive patients.It is common knowledge that only 30% of hypertensive patients can be controlled using monotherapy; all the rest require a combination of two or more antihypertensive drugs, and this can be a barrier to good adherence and log-term persistence in patients who also often need to use other drugs, such as antidiabetic agents, statins or antiplatelet agents. The fixed combinations of three antihypertensive agents currently available can facilitate long-term control of these patients in clinical practice. If well tolerated, a long-term therapeutic regimen that includes a diuretic, an ACE inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker, and a calcium channel blocker is the recommended optimal triple therapy.

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a middle-income country and estimated cost of a treatment strategy.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a middle-income country in rapid epidemiological transition and estimated direct costs for treating all individuals at increased cardiovascular risk, i.e. following the so-called "high risk strategy". METHODS: Survey of risk factors using an age- and sex-stratified random sample of the population of Seychelles aged 25-64 in 2004. Assessment of CVD risk and treatment modalities were in line with international guidelines. Costs are expressed as USD per capita per year. RESULTS: 1255 persons took part in the survey (participation rate of 80.2%). Prevalence of main risk factors was: 39.6% for high blood pressure (> or =140/90 mmHg or treatment) of which 59% were under treatment; 24.2% for high cholesterol (> or =6.2 mmol/l); 20.8% for low HDL-cholesterol (<1.0 mmol/l); 9.3% for diabetes (fasting glucose > or =7.0 mmol/l); 17.5% for smoking; 25.1% for obesity (body mass index > or =30 kg/m2) and 22.1% for the metabolic syndrome. Overall, 43% had HBP, high cholesterol or diabetes and substantially increased CVD risk. The cost for medications needed to treat all high-risk individuals amounted to USD 45.6, i.e. 11.2 dollars for high blood pressure, 3.8 dollars for diabetes, and 30.6 dollars for dyslipidemia (using generic drugs except for hypercholesterolemia). Cost for minimal follow-up medical care and laboratory tests amounted to 22.6 dollars. CONCLUSION: High prevalence of major risk factors was found in a rapidly developing country and costs for treatment needed to reduce risk factors in all high-risk individuals exceeded resources generally available in low or middle income countries. Our findings emphasize the need for affordable cost-effective treatment strategies and the critical importance of population strategies aimed at reducing risk factors in the entire population.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Changes over time in risk factors for cardiovascular disease and use of lipid-lowering drugs in HIV-infected individuals and impact on myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: Because of the known relationship between exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy and cardiovascular disease (CVD), it has become increasingly important to intervene against risk of CVD in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. We evaluated changes in risk factors for CVD and the use of lipid-lowering therapy in HIV-infected individuals and assessed the impact of any changes on the incidence of myocardial infarction. METHODS: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study is a collaboration of 11 cohorts of HIV-infected patients that included follow-up for 33,389 HIV-infected patients from December 1999 through February 2006. RESULTS: The proportion of patients at high risk of CVD increased from 35.3% during 1999-2000 to 41.3% during 2005-2006. Of 28,985 patients, 2801 (9.7%) initiated lipid-lowering therapy; initiation of lipid-lowering therapy was more common for those with abnormal lipid values and those with traditional risk factors for CVD (male sex, older age, higher body mass index [calculated as the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], family and personal history of CVD, and diabetes mellitus). After controlling for these, use of lipid-lowering drugs became relatively less common over time. The incidence of myocardial infarction (0.32 cases per 100 person-years [PY]; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.35 cases per 100 PY) appeared to remain stable. However, after controlling for changes in risk factors for CVD, the rate decreased over time (relative rate in 2003 [compared with 1999-2000], 0.73 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.50-1.05 cases per 100 PY]; in 2004, 0.64 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.44-0.94 cases per 100 PY]; in 2005-2006, 0.36 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.24-0.56 cases per 100 PY]). Further adjustment for lipid levels attenuated the relative rates towards unity (relative rate in 2003 [compared with 1999-2000], 1.06 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.63-1.77 cases per 100 PY]; in 2004, 1.02 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.61-1.71 cases per 100 PY]; in 2005-2006, 0.63 cases per 100 PY [95% CI, 0.36-1.09 cases per 100 PY]). CONCLUSIONS: Although the CVD risk profile among patients in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study has decreased since 1999, rates have remained relatively stable, possibly as a result of a more aggressive approach towards managing the risk of CVD.

Risk perception and emotional coping: a pathway for behavioural addiction?

This article summarizes current concepts of the working memory with regard to its role within emotional coping strategies. In particular, it focuses on the fact that the limited capacity of the working memory to process now-relevant information can be turned into an advantage, when the individual is occupied by dealing with unpleasant emotion. Based on a phenomenon known as dual-task interference (DTI), this emotion can be chased by intense arousal due to clearly identifiable external stressors. Thus, risk perception might be used as a 'DTI inductor' that allows avoidance of unpleasant emotion. Successful mastery of risk adds a highly relevant dopaminergic component to the overall experience. The resulting mechanism of implicit learning may contribute to the development of a behavioural addiction. Besides its putative effects in the development of a behavioural addiction, the use of DTI might be of a more general interest for the clinical practice, especially in the field of psychotherapy. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Startegy selection during exploratory behavior: sex differences, uncertainty and risk managment

This study deals with the psychological processes underlying the selection of appropriate strategy during exploratory behavior. A new device was used to assess sexual dimorphisms in spatial abilities that do not depend on spatial rotation, map reading or directional vector extraction capacities. Moreover, it makes it possible to investigate exploratory behavior as a specific response to novelty that trades off risk and reward. Risk management under uncertainty was assessed through both spontaneous searching strategies and signal detection capacities. The results of exploratory behavior, detection capacities, and decision-making strategies seem to indicate that women's exploratory behavior is based on risk-reducing behavior while men behavior does not appear to be influenced by this variable. This difference was interpreted as a difference in information processing modifying beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events, and therefore influencing risk evaluation.

Ammonia-induced toxicity in developing brain cells and strategies for neuroprotection

RESUME L'hyperammonémie est particulièrement toxique pour le cerveau des jeunes patients et entraîne une atrophie corticale, un élargissement des ventricules et des défauts de myélinisation, responsables de retards mentaux et développementaux. Les traitements actuels se limitent à diminuer le plus rapidement possible le taux d'ammoniaque dans l'organisme. L'utilisation de traitements neuroprotecteurs pendant les crises d'hyperammonémie permettrait de contrecarrer les effets neurologiques de l'ammoniaque et de prévenir l'apparition des troubles neurologiques. Au cours de cette thèse, nous avons testé trois stratégies de neuroprotection sur des cultures de cellules en agrégats issues du cortex d'embryons de rats et traitées à l'ammoniaque. - Nous avons tout d'abord testé si l'inhibition de protéines intracellulaires impliquées dans le déclenchement de la mort cellulaire pouvait protéger les cellules de la toxicité de l'ammoniaque. Nous avons montré que L'exposition à l'ammoniaque altérait la viabilité des neurones et des oligodendrocytes, et activait les caspases, la calpaïne et la kinase-5 dépendante des cyclines (cdk5) associée à son activateur p25. Alors que l'inhibition pharmacologique des caspases et de la calpaïne n'a pas permis de protéger les cellules cérébrales, un inhibiteur de la cdk5, appelé roscovitine, a réduit significativement la mort neuronale. L'inhibition de la cdk5 semble donc être une stratégie thérapeutique prometteuse pour prévenir 1es effets toxiques de 1'ammoniaque sur les neurones. - Nous avons ensuite étudié les mécanismes neuroprotecteurs déclenchés par le cerveau en réponse à la toxicité de l'ammoniaque. Nous avons montré que l'ammoniaque induisait la synthèse du facteur neurotrophique ciliaire (CNTF) par les astrocytes, via l'activation de la protéine kinase (MIAPK) p38. D'autre part, l'ajout de CNTF a permis de protéger les oligodendrocytes mais pas les neurones des cultures exposées à l'ammoniaque, via les voies de signalisations JAK/STAT, SAPK/JNK et c-jun. - Dans une dernière partie, nous avons voulu contrecarrer, par l'ajout de créatine, le déficit énergétique cérébral induit par l'ammoniaque. La créatine a permis de protéger des cellules de type astrocytaire mais pas les cellules cérébrales en agrégats. Cette thèse amis en évidence que les stratégies de neuroprotection chez les patients hyperammonémiques nécessiteront de cibler plusieurs voies de signalisation afin de protéger tous les types cellulaires du cerveau. Summary : In pediatric patients, hyperammonemia is mainly caused by urea cycle disorders or other inborn errors of metabolism, and leads to neurological injury with cortical atrophy, ventricular enlargement and demyelination. Children rescued from neonatal hyperammonemia show significant risk of mental retardation and developmental disabilities. The mainstay of therapy is limited to ammonia lowering through dietary restriction and alternative pathway treatments. However, the possibility of using treatments in a neuroprotective goal may be useful to improve the neurological outcome of patients. Thus, the main objective of this work was to investigate intracellular and extracellular signaling pathways altered by ammonia tonicity, so as to identify new potential therapeutic targets. Experiments were conducted in reaggregated developing brain cell cultures exposed to ammonia, as a model for the developing CNS of hyperammonemic young patients. Theses strategies of neuroprotection were tested: - The first strategy consisted in inhibiting intracellular proteins triggering cell death. Our data indicated that ammonia exposure altered the viability of neurons and oligodendrocytes. Apoptosis and proteins involved in the trigger of apoptosis, such as caspases, calpain and cyclin-dependent kinase-5 (cdk5) with its activator p25, were activated by ammonia exposure. While caspases and calpain inhibitors exhibited no protective effects, roscovitine, a cdk5 inhibitor, reduced ammonia-induced neuronal death. This work revealed that inhibition of cdk5 seems a promising strategy to prevent the toxic effects of ammonia on neurons. - The second strategy consisted in mimicking, the endogenous protective mechanisms triggered by ammonia in the brain. Ammonia exposure caused an increase of the ciliary neurotrophic factor (CNTF) expression, through the activation of the p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) in astrocytes. Treatment of cultures exposed to ammonia with exogenous CNTF demonstrated strong protective effects on oligodendrocytes but not on neurons. These protective effects seemed to involve JAK/STAT, SAPK/JNK and c-jun proteins. - The third strategy consisted in preventing the ammonia-induced cerebral energy deficit with creatine. Creatine treatment protected the survival of astrocyte-like cells through MAPKs pathways. In contrast, it had no protective effects in reaggregated developing brain cell cultures exposed to ammonia. The present study suggests that neuroprotective strategies should optimally be directed at multiple targets to prevent ammonia-induced alterations of the different brain cell types.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Buy-and-Hold Strategies and Comonotonic Approximations

[cat] En aquest article estudiem estratègies “comprar i mantenir” per a problemes d’optimitzar la riquesa final en un context multi-període. Com que la riquesa final és una suma de variables aleatòries dependents, on cadascuna d’aquestes correspon a una quantitat de capital que s’ha invertit en un actiu particular en una data determinada, en primer lloc considerem aproximacions que redueixen l’aleatorietat multivariant al cas univariant. A continuació, aquestes aproximacions es fan servir per determinar les estratègies “comprar i mantenir” que optimitzen, per a un nivell de probabilitat donat, el VaR i el CLTE de la funció de distribució de la riquesa final. Aquest article complementa el treball de Dhaene et al. (2005), on es van considerar estratègies de reequilibri constant.

Combinations of prognostic tools for identification of high-risk normotensive patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism.

Background: In haemodynamically stable patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism (PE), studies have not evaluated the usefulness of combining the measurement of cardiac troponin, transthoracic echocardiogram (TTE), and lower extremity complete compression ultrasound (CCUS) testing for predicting the risk of PE-related death. Methods: The study assessed the ability of three diagnostic tests (cardiac troponin I (cTnI), echocardiogram, and CCUS) to prognosticate the primary outcome of PE-related mortality during 30 days of follow-up after a diagnosis of PE by objective testing. Results: Of 591 normotensive patients diagnosed with PE, the primary outcome occurred in 37 patients (6.3%; 95% CI 4.3% to 8.2%). Patients with right ventricular dysfunction (RVD) by TTE and concomitant deep vein thrombosis (DVT) by CCUS had a PE-related mortality of 19.6%, compared with 17.1% of patients with elevated cTnI and concomitant DVT and 15.2% of patients with elevated cTnI and RVD. The use of any two-test strategy had a higher specificity and positive predictive value compared with the use of any test by itself. A combined three-test strategy did not further improve prognostication. For a subgroup analysis of high-risk patients, according to the pulmonary embolism severity index (classes IV and V), positive predictive values of the two-test strategies for PE-related mortality were 25.0%, 24.4% and 20.7%, respectively. Conclusions: In haemodynamically stable patients with acute symptomatic PE, a combination of echocardiography (or troponin testing) and CCUS improved prognostication compared with the use of any test by itself for the identification of those at high risk of PE-related death.

Three essays in risk management in financial institutions

The choice to adopt risk-sensitive measurement approaches for operational risks: the case of Advanced Measurement Approach under Basel II New Capital Accord This paper investigates the choice of the operational risk approach under Basel II requirements and whether the adoption of advanced risk measurement approaches allows banks to save capital. Among the three possible approaches for operational risk measurement, the Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) is the most sophisticated and requires the use of historical loss data, the application of statistical tools, and the engagement of a highly qualified staff. Our results provide evidence that the adoption of AMA is contingent on the availability of bank resources and prior experience in risk-sensitive operational risk measurement practices. Moreover, banks that choose AMA exhibit low requirements for capital and, as a result might gain a competitive advantage compared to banks that opt for less sophisticated approaches. - Internal Risk Controls and their Impact on Bank Solvency Recent cases in financial sector showed the importance of risk management controls on risk taking and firm performance. Despite advances in the design and implementation of risk management mechanisms, there is little research on their impact on behavior and performance of firms. Based on data from a sample of 88 banks covering the period between 2004 and 2010, we provide evidence that internal risk controls impact the solvency of banks. In addition, our results show that the level of internal risk controls leads to a higher degree of solvency in banks with a major shareholder in contrast to widely-held banks. However, the relationship between internal risk controls and bank solvency is negatively affected by BHC growth strategies and external restrictions on bank activities, while the higher regulatory requirements for bank capital moderates positively this relationship. - The Impact of the Sophistication of Risk Measurement Approaches under Basel II on Bank Holding Companies Value Previous research showed the importance of external regulation on banks' behavior. Some inefficient standards may accentuate risk-taking in banks and provoke a financial crisis. Despite the growing literature on the potential effects of Basel II rules, there is little empirical research on the efficiency of risk-sensitive capital measurement approaches and their impact on bank profitability and market valuation. Based on data from a sample of 66 banks covering the period between 2008 and 2010, we provide evidence that prudential ratios computed under Basel II standards predict the value of banks. However, this relation is contingent on the degree of sophistication of risk measurement approaches that banks apply. Capital ratios are effective in predicting bank market valuation when banks adopt the advanced approaches to compute the value of their risk-weighted assets.