Risk assessment in life-cycle costing for road asset management

Queensland Department of Main Roads, Australia, spends approximately A$ 1 billion annually for road infrastructure asset management. To effectively manage road infrastructure, firstly road agencies not only need to optimise the expenditure for data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. This paper presents the results of case studies in using the probability-based method for an integrated approach (i.e. assessing optimal costs of pavement strength data collection; calibrating deterioration prediction models that suit local condition and assessing risk-adjusted budget estimates for road maintenance and rehabilitation for assessing life-cycle budget estimates). The probability concept is opening the path to having the means to predict life-cycle maintenance and rehabilitation budget estimates that have a known probability of success (e.g. produce budget estimates for a project life-cycle cost with 5% probability of exceeding). The paper also presents a conceptual decision-making framework in the form of risk mapping in which the life-cycle budget/cost investment could be considered in conjunction with social, environmental and political issues.

Prediction of adjacent vertebral fracture risk associated with vertebroplasty : a computer-based simulation study

Vertebrplasty involved injecting cement into a fractured vertebra to provide stabilisation. There is clinical evidence to suggest however that vertebroplasty may be assocated with a higher risk of adjacent vertebral fracture; which may be due to the change in material properties of the post-procedure vertebra modifying the transmission of mechanical stresses to adjacent vertebrae.

Biosecurity threats : the design of surveillance systems, based on power and risk

We consider the problem of designing a surveillance system to detect a broad range of invasive species across a heterogeneous sampling frame. We present a model to detect a range of invertebrate invasives whilst addressing the challenges of multiple data sources, stratifying for differential risk, managing labour costs and providing sufficient power of detection.We determine the number of detection devices required and their allocation across the landscape within limiting resource constraints. The resulting plan will lead to reduced financial and ecological costs and an optimal surveillance system.

Determination of optimal preventive maintenance strategy for serial production lines

A Split System Approach (SSA) based methodology is presented to assist in making optimal Preventive Maintenance decisions for serial production lines. The methodology treats a production line as a complex series system with multiple PM actions over multiple intervals. Both risk related cost and maintenance related cost are factored into the methodology as either deterministic or random variables. This SSA based methodology enables Asset Management (AM) decisions to be optimized considering a variety of factors including failure probability, failure cost, maintenance cost, PM performance, and the type of PM strategy. The application of this new methodology and an evaluation of the effects of these factors on PM decisions are demonstrated using an example. The results of this work show that the performance of a PM strategy can be measured by its Total Expected Cost Index (TECI). The optimal PM interval is dependent on TECI, PM performance and types of PM strategies. These factors are interrelated. Generally it was found that a trade-off between reliability and the number of PM actions needs to be made so that one can minimize Total Expected Cost (TEC) for asset maintenance.

Testing a belief-based intervention encouraging sun safety among adolescents in a high risk area

Objective. To provide a preliminary test of a Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) belief-based intervention to increase adolescents’ sun protective behaviors in a high risk area, Queensland, Australia. Methods. In the period of October-November, 2007 and May-June, 2008, 80 adolescents (14.53 ± 0.69 years) were recruited from two secondary schools (one government and one private) in Queensland after obtaining student, parental, and school informed consent. Adolescents were allocated to either a control or intervention condition based on the class they attended. The intervention comprised three, one hour in-school sessions facilitated by Cancer Council Queensland employees with sessions covering the belief basis of the TPB (i.e., behavioral, normative, and control [barrier and motivator] sun-safe beliefs). Participants completed questionnaires assessing sun-safety beliefs, intentions, and behavior pre- and post-intervention. Repeated Measures Multivariate Analysis of Variance was used to test the effect of the intervention across time on these constructs. Results. Students completing the intervention reported stronger sun-safe normative and motivator beliefs and intentions and the performance of more sun-safe behaviors across time than those in the control condition. Conclusion. Strengthening beliefs about the approval of others and motivators for sun protection may encourage sun-safe cognitions and actions among adolescents.

Systems-based accident analysis in the led outdoor activity domain : application and evaluation of a risk management framework

Safety-compromising accidents occur regularly in the led outdoor activity domain. Formal accident analysis is an accepted means of understanding such events and improving safety. Despite this, there remains no universally accepted framework for collecting and analysing accident data in the led outdoor activity domain. This article presents an application of Rasmussen's risk management framework to the analysis of the Lyme Bay sea canoeing incident. This involved the development of an Accimap, the outputs of which were used to evaluate seven predictions made by the framework. The Accimap output was also compared to an analysis using an existing model from the led outdoor activity domain. In conclusion, the Accimap output was found to be more comprehensive and supported all seven of the risk management framework's predictions, suggesting that it shows promise as a theoretically underpinned approach for analysing, and learning from, accidents in the led outdoor activity domain.

The role of nature-based experiences in the development and maintenance of wellness

Wellness is now seen as central to redefining the National Health agenda. There is growing evidence that contact with nature and physical activity in nature has considerable positive effects on human health. At the most basic level humanity is reliant on the natural world for resources such as air and water. However, a growing body of research is finding that beyond this fundamental relationship exposure to the non-human natural world can also positively enhance perceptions of physiological, emotional, psychological and spiritual health in ways that cannot be satisfied by alternate means. Theoretical explanations for this have posited that non-human nature might 1) restore mental fatigue, 2) trigger deep reflections, 3) provide an opportunity for nurturing and 4) rekindle innate connections. In this paper the authors show how human wellness is strongly connected to their relationship with the natural world. This paper points to how non-human nature could be better utilised for enhancing human health and wellness.

Identifying relationship between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes using probability-based risk approach

Road accidents are of great concerns for road and transport departments around world, which cause tremendous loss and dangers for public. Reducing accident rates and crash severity are imperative goals that governments, road and transport authorities, and researchers are aimed to achieve. In Australia, road crash trauma costs the nation A$ 15 billion annually. Five people are killed, and 550 are injured every day. Each fatality costs the taxpayer A$1.7 million. Serious injury cases can cost the taxpayer many times the cost of a fatality. Crashes are in general uncontrolled events and are dependent on a number of interrelated factors such as driver behaviour, traffic conditions, travel speed, road geometry and condition, and vehicle characteristics (e.g. tyre type pressure and condition, and suspension type and condition). Skid resistance is considered one of the most important surface characteristics as it has a direct impact on traffic safety. Attempts have been made worldwide to study the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Most of these studies used the statistical regression and correlation methods in analysing the relationships between skid resistance and road crashes. The outcomes from these studies provided mix results and not conclusive. The objective of this paper is to present a probability-based method of an ongoing study in identifying the relationship between skid resistance and road crashes. Historical skid resistance and crash data of a road network located in the tropical east coast of Queensland were analysed using the probability-based method. Analysis methodology and results of the relationships between skid resistance, road characteristics and crashes are presented.

A grouping model for distributed pipeline assets maintenance decision

Distributed pipeline assets systems are crucial to society. The deterioration of these assets and the optimal allocation of limited budget for their maintenance correspond to crucial challenges for water utility managers. Decision makers should be assisted with optimal solutions to select the best maintenance plan concerning available resources and management strategies. Much research effort has been dedicated to the development of optimal strategies for maintenance of water pipes. Most of the maintenance strategies are intended for scheduling individual water pipe. Consideration of optimal group scheduling replacement jobs for groups of pipes or other linear assets has so far not received much attention in literature. It is a common practice that replacement planners select two or three pipes manually with ambiguous criteria to group into one replacement job. This is obviously not the best solution for job grouping and may not be cost effective, especially when total cost can be up to multiple million dollars. In this paper, an optimal group scheduling scheme with three decision criteria for distributed pipeline assets maintenance decision is proposed. A Maintenance Grouping Optimization (MGO) model with multiple criteria is developed. An immediate challenge of such modeling is to deal with scalability of vast combinatorial solution space. To address this issue, a modified genetic algorithm is developed together with a Judgment Matrix. This Judgment Matrix is corresponding to various combinations of pipe replacement schedules. An industrial case study based on a section of a real water distribution network was conducted to test the new model. The results of the case study show that new schedule generated a significant cost reduction compared with the schedule without grouping pipes.

Image-based safety assessment : automated spatial safety risk identification of earthmoving and surface mining activities

This paper presents an automated image‐based safety assessment method for earthmoving and surface mining activities. The literature review revealed the possible causes of accidents on earthmoving operations, investigated the spatial risk factors of these types of accident, and identified spatial data needs for automated safety assessment based on current safety regulations. Image‐based data collection devices and algorithms for safety assessment were then evaluated. Analysis methods and rules for monitoring safety violations were also discussed. The experimental results showed that the safety assessment method collected spatial data using stereo vision cameras, applied object identification and tracking algorithms, and finally utilized identified and tracked object information for safety decision making.

Project-based organization as adaptation to risk and opportunity in small firms

Recent years have seen a rapid increase in SMEs working collaboratively in inter-organizational projects. But what drives the emergence of such projects, and what types of industries breed them the most? To address these questions, this paper extends the long running literature on the firm and industry antecedents of new venturing and alliance formation to the domain of project-based organization by SMEs. Based on survey data collected among 1,725 small and medium sized organizations and longitudinal industry data, we find an overall pattern that indicates that IOPV participation is primarily determined by a focal SME’s scope of innovative activities, and the munificence, dynamism and complexity of its environment. Unexpectedly, these variables have different effects on whether SMEs are likely to engage in IOPVs, compared to with how many there are in their portfolio at a time. Implications for theory development are discussed.

Tooth fracture risk analysis based on a new finite element dental structure models using micro-CT data

The finite element (FE) analysis is an effective method to study the strength and predict the fracture risk of endodontically-treated teeth. This paper presents a rapid method developed to generate a comprehensive tooth FE model using data retrieved from micro-computed tomography (μCT). With this method, the inhomogeneity of material properties of teeth was included into the model without dividing the tooth model into different regions. The material properties of the tooth were assumed to be related to the mineral density. The fracture risk at different tooth portions was assessed for root canal treatments. The micro-CT images of a tooth were processed by a Matlab software programme and the CT numbers were retrieved. The tooth contours were obtained with thresholding segmentation using Amira. The inner and outer surfaces of the tooth were imported into Solidworks and a three-dimensional (3D) tooth model was constructed. An assembly of the tooth model with the periodontal ligament (PDL) layer and surrounding bone was imported into ABAQUS. The material properties of the tooth were calculated from the retrieved CT numbers via ABAQUS user's subroutines. Three root canal geometries (original and two enlargements) were investigated. The proposed method in this study can generate detailed 3D finite element models of a tooth with different root canal enlargements and filling materials, and would be very useful for the assessment of the fracture risk at different tooth portions after root canal treatments.

Reaching high-risk adolescents : a process evaluation of a school based injury prevention program

High-risk adolescents are a population most vulnerable to harm from injury due to increased engagement in risk taking behaviour. There is a gap in the literature regarding how universal school based injury prevention programs apply to high-risk adolescents. This study involves a component of the process evaluation of a school based injury prevention program, as it relates to high-risk adolescents (13-14 years)...