Signals of resilience to ocean change: high thermal tolerance of early stage Antarctic sea urchins (Sterechinus neumayeri) reared under present-day and future pCO2 and temperature

We tested the hypothesis that development of the Antarctic urchin Sterechinus neumayeri under future ocean conditions of warming and acidification would incur physiological costs, reducing the tolerance of a secondary stressor. The aim of this study is twofold: (1) quantify current austral spring temperature and pH near sea urchin habitat at Cape Evans in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica and (2) spawn S. neumayeri in the laboratory and raise early developmental stages (EDSs) under ambient (-0.7 °C; 400 µatm pCO2) and future (+2.6 °C; 650 and 1,000 µatm pCO2) ocean conditions and expose four EDSs (blastula, gastrula, prism, and 4-arm echinopluteus) to a one hour acute heat stress and assess survivorship. Results of field data from 2011 to 2012 show extremely stable inter-annual pH conditions ranging from 7.99 to 8.08, suggesting that future ocean acidification will drastically alter the pH-seascape for S. neumayeri. In the laboratory, S. neumayeri EDSs appear to be tolerant of temperatures and pCO2 levels above their current habitat conditions. EDSs survived acute heat exposures >20 °C above habitat temperatures of -1.9 °C. No pCO2 effect was observed for EDSs reared at -0.7 °C. When reared at +2.6 °C, small but significant pCO2 effects were observed at the blastula and prism stage, suggesting that multiple stressors are more detrimental than single stressors. While surprisingly tolerant overall, blastulae were the most sensitive stage to ocean warming and acidification. We conclude that S. neumayeri may be unexpectedly physiologically tolerant of future ocean conditions.

Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8 °C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by 20-50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20-37% compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.

Could the acid-base status of Antarctic sea urchins indicate a better-than-expected resilience to near-future ocean acidification?

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration alters the chemistry of the oceans towards more acidic conditions. Polar oceans are particularly affected due to their low temperature, low carbonate content and mixing patterns, for instance upwellings. Calcifying organisms are expected to be highly impacted by the decrease in the oceans' pH and carbonate ions concentration. In particular, sea urchins, members of the phylum Echinodermata, are hypothesized to be at risk due to their high-magnesium calcite skeleton. However, tolerance to ocean acidification in metazoans is first linked to acid-base regulation capacities of the extracellular fluids. No information on this is available to date for Antarctic echinoderms and inference from temperate and tropical studies needs support. In this study, we investigated the acid-base status of 9 species of sea urchins (3 cidaroids, 2 regular euechinoids and 4 irregular echinoids). It appears that Antarctic regular euechinoids seem equipped with similar acid-base regulation systems as tropical and temperate regular euechinoids but could rely on more passive ion transfer systems, minimizing energy requirements. Cidaroids have an acid-base status similar to that of tropical cidaroids. Therefore Antarctic cidaroids will most probably not be affected by decreasing seawater pH, the pH drop linked to ocean acidification being negligible in comparison of the naturally low pH of the coelomic fluid. Irregular echinoids might not suffer from reduced seawater pH if acidosis of the coelomic fluid pH does not occur but more data on their acid-base regulation are needed. Combining these results with the resilience of Antarctic sea urchin larvae strongly suggests that these organisms might not be the expected victims of ocean acidification. However, data on the impact of other global stressors such as temperature and of the combination of the different stressors needs to be acquired to assess the sensitivity of these organisms to global change.

Computationally efficient method to construct scar functions

Phys. Rev. E 85, 026214-026219 (2012) Desarrollo de un nuevo y eficiente método para la construcción de funciones de scar a lo largo de las órtbitas periódicas inestables de sistemas clásicamente caóticos

Infrastructure (Resilience-oriented) Modelling Language: I®ML A proposal for modelling infrastructures and their connections

The modelling of critical infrastructures (CIs) is an important issue that needs to be properly addressed, for several reasons. It is a basic support for making decisions about operation and risk reduction. It might help in understanding high-level states at the system-of-systems layer, which are not ready evident to the organisations that manage the lower level technical systems. Moreover, it is also indispensable for setting a common reference between operator and authorities, for agreeing on the incident scenarios that might affect those infrastructures. So far, critical infrastructures have been modelled ad-hoc, on the basis of knowledge and practice derived from less complex systems. As there is no theoretical framework, most of these efforts proceed without clear guides and goals and using informally defined schemas based mostly on boxes and arrows. Different CIs (electricity grid, telecommunications networks, emergency support, etc) have been modelled using particular schemas that were not directly translatable from one CI to another. If there is a desire to build a science of CIs it is because there are some observable commonalities that different CIs share. Up until now, however, those commonalities were not adequately compiled or categorized, so building models of CIs that are rooted on such commonalities was not possible. This report explores the issue of which elements underlie every CI and how those elements can be used to develop a modelling language that will enable CI modelling and, subsequently, analysis of CI interactions, with a special focus on resilience

A modelling language for the resilience assessment of networked systems of systems

Systems of Systems (SoS) present challenging features and existing tools result often inadequate for their analysis, especially for heteregeneous networked infrastructures. Most accident scenarios in networked systems cannot be addressed by a simplistic black or white (i.e. functioning or failed) approach. Slow deviations from nominal operation conditions may cause degraded behaviours that suddenly end up into unexpected malfunctioning, with large portions of the network affected. In this paper,we present a language for modelling networked SoS. The language makes it possible to represent interdependencies of various natures, e.g. technical, organizational and human. The representation of interdependencies is based on control relationships that exchange physical quantities and related information. The language also makes it possible the identification of accident scenarios, by representing the propagation of failure events throughout the network. The results can be used for assessing the effectiveness of those mechanisms and measures that contribute to the overall resilience, both in qualitative and quantitative terms. The presented modelling methodology is general enough to be applied in combination with already existing system analysis techniques, such as risk assessment, dependability and performance evaluation

Resilience analysis of networked systems-of-systems based on structural and dynamic interdependencies

Critical infrastructures support everyday activities in modern societies, facilitating the exchange of services and quantities of various nature. Their functioning is the result of the integration of diverse technologies, systems and organizations into a complex network of interconnections. Benefits from networking are accompanied by new threats and risks. In particular, because of the increased interdependency, disturbances and failures may propagate and render unstable the whole infrastructure network. This paper presents a methodology of resilience analysis of networked systems of systems. Resilience generalizes the concept of stability of a system around a state of equilibrium, with respect to a disturbance and its ability of preventing, resisting and recovery. The methodology provides a tool for the analysis of off-equilibrium conditions that may occur in a single system and propagate through the network of dependencies. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage of the analysis is qualitative. It identifies the resilience scenarios, i.e. the sequence of events, triggered by an initial disturbance, which include failures and the system response. The second stage is quantitative. The most critical scenarios can be simulated, for the desired parameter settings, in order to check if they are successfully handled, i.e recovered to nominal conditions, or they end into the network failure. The proposed methodology aims at providing an effective support to resilience-informed design.

Resilience in Cloud Computing for Critical Systems. Resilience, Dependability, Reliability in the use of Cloud Computing in Critical Systems in Public Organizations.

La informática se está convirtiendo en la quinta utilidad (gas, agua, luz, teléfono) en parte debido al impacto de Cloud Computing en las mayorías de las organizaciones. Este uso de informática es usada por cada vez más tipos de sistemas, incluidos Sistemas Críticos. Esto tiene un impacto en la complejidad internad y la fiabilidad de los sistemas de la organización y los que se ofrecen a los clientes. Este trabajo investiga el uso de Cloud Computing por sistemas críticos, centrándose en las dependencias y especialmente en la fiabilidad de estos sistemas. Se han presentado algunos ejemplos de su uso, y aunque su utilización en sistemas críticos no está extendido, se presenta cual puede llegar a ser su impacto. El objetivo de este trabajo es primero definir un modelo que pueda representar de una forma cuantitativa las interdependencias en fiabilidad y interdependencia para las organizaciones que utilicen estos sistemas, y aplicar este modelo en un sistema crítico del campo de sanidad y mostrar sus resultados. Los conceptos de “macro-dependability” y “micro-dependability” son introducidos en el modelo para la definición de interdependencia y para analizar la fiabilidad de sistemas que dependen de otros sistemas. ABSTRACT With the increasing utilization of Internet services and cloud computing by most organizations (both private and public), it is clear that computing is becoming the 5th utility (along with water, electricity, telephony and gas). These technologies are used for almost all types of systems, and the number is increasing, including Critical Infrastructure systems. Even if Critical Infrastructure systems appear not to rely directly on cloud services, there may be hidden inter-dependencies. This is true even for private cloud computing, which seems more secure and reliable. The critical systems can began in some cases with a clear and simple design, but evolved as described by Egan to "rafted" networks. Because they are usually controlled by one or few organizations, even when they are complex systems, their dependencies can be understood. The organization oversees and manages changes. These CI systems have been affected by the introduction of new ICT models like global communications, PCs and the Internet. Even virtualization took more time to be adopted by Critical systems, due to their strategic nature, but once that these technologies have been proven in other areas, at the end they are adopted as well, for different reasons such as costs. A new technology model is happening now based on some previous technologies (virtualization, distributing and utility computing, web and software services) that are offered in new ways and is called cloud computing. The organizations are migrating more services to the cloud; this will have impact in their internal complexity and in the reliability of the systems they are offering to the organization itself and their clients. Not always this added complexity and associated risks to their reliability are seen. As well, when two or more CI systems are interacting, the risks of one can affect the rest, sharing the risks. This work investigates the use of cloud computing by critical systems, and is focused in the dependencies and reliability of these systems. Some examples are presented together with the associated risks. A framework is introduced for analysing the dependability and resilience of a system that relies on cloud services and how to improve them. As part of the framework, the concepts of micro and macro dependability are introduced to explain the internal and external dependability on services supplied by an external cloud. A pharmacovigilance model system has been used for framework validation.

Desarrollo de capacidades para el liderazgo en proyectos de desarrollo rural. Aplicación a comunidades Aymaras

Los proyectos de desarrollo en el medio rural han cambiado en las últimas décadas, desde un enfoque tecnocrático y descendente, que resultó insuficiente, a otro que otorga un papel principal a las personas locales. En este contexto, los nuevos modelos de planificación y gestión de los proyectos de desarrollo a menudo incluyen entre sus objetivos el desarrollo de las capacidades locales y el liderazgo, dedicándose a ellos anualmente billones de dólares. Ambos conceptos son considerados elementos indispensables para aumentar la sostenibilidad de las acciones desde un enfoque endógeno, lo que genera un gran interés tanto desde el ámbito científico como en los debates y objetivos de los organismos internacionales. Sin embargo no existe un consenso sobre el marco conceptual del desarrollo de capacidades ni sobre las metodologías adecuadas para evaluarlo. Por otra parte, en el caso del desarrollo de liderazgo, la mayoría de los estudios e investigaciones se han centrado en entornos empresariales, siendo escasos los trabajos centrados en el ámbito rural. En dicho contexto, la complejidad se incrementa debido a que a menudo la autoridad y poder de los líderes no están dados por puestos formales, sino por relaciones sociales y vínculos de confianza. Esta investigación presenta una primera fase conceptual, que aborda el marco teórico, analizando y clarificando los conceptos de desarrollo de capacidades, competencias y liderazgo en el contexto de los proyectos de desarrollo rural. Así mismo, en esta fase se clasifican los principales instrumentos para evaluar el desarrollo de capacidades, para así definir las variables que conforman el constructo de capacidades. Además se determina la multidimensionalidad del concepto de capacidades y por ello la conveniencia de abordarlo a nivel individual y colectivo. También se analizan los distintos estilos de liderazgo para llegar a una definición propia de desarrollo de capacidades y de liderazgo adaptadas al medio rural. El marco teórico anterior permite sentar, en una segunda fase de la investigación, las bases científicas del modelo que se propone: el modelo DCL de Desarrollo de Capacidades para el Liderazgo en los proyectos de desarrollo rural. Este modelo incorpora elementos del marco conceptual Working With People (Cazorla et al., 2013), fruto de 25 años de experiencia en el ámbito de la planificación de proyectos de desarrollo rural desde el grupo de investigación GESPLAN de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid. El modelo DCL integra metodologías cuantitativas y cualitativas y una doble escala de análisis para promover y evaluar el desarrollo de capacidades en la población local desde tres componentes: técnico-empresarial, relacional y contextual. Además el modelo DCL incorpora un proceso metodológico para poder integrar el seguimiento y la evaluación de las capacidades a lo largo del ciclo del proyecto. Finalmente, en una fase de aplicación, se acomete la validación del modelo DCL a través del caso de estudio de un proyecto de desarrollo con una organización de mujeres artesanas de comunidades aymaras de Puno (Perú). Este proyecto, que incorpora el marco conceptual WWP, integra 5 años de experiencia con comunidades aymaras desde el grupo de investigación GESPLAN. La aplicación muestra cómo el modelo DCL permite evaluar el desarrollo de capacidades para el liderazgo. Así mismo, la incorporación de los aprendizajes tras las evaluaciones de desarrollo de capacidades permite reorientar las acciones del proyecto para mejorar su planificación y gestión y producir un verdadero empoderamiento y liderazgo de la organización local. Lo anterior se traduce en un aumento de la sostenibilidad del proyecto y de la resiliencia social de la organización. ABSTRACT Development projects in rural areas have changed in recent decades, from a technocratic and top-down approach, which proved insufficient, to another that gives a major role to local people. In this context, the new models of planning and management of development projects often include among their objectives the development of local capacities and leadership and engage billions of dollars annually. Both concepts are considered essential for enhancing the sustainability of the actions from an endogenous approach, generating great interest both from the scientific field and in the debates and objectives of international organizations. However there is no consensus on the conceptual framework of capacity development and on appropriate methodologies to evaluate it. Moreover, in the case of leadership development, most of the studies and research have focused on business environments, with few studies focusing on rural areas. In this context, the complexity is increased because often the authority and power of the leaders are not given for formal positions, but by social relationships and bonds of trust. This research presents an initial conceptual phase, which addresses the theoretical framework, analyzing and clarifying the concepts of capacity development, competencies and leadership in the context of rural development projects. Also, at this stage the main instruments to assess capacity development are classified so as to define the variables that shape the capacity construct. Besides the multidimensionality of the concept of capacity is determined and therefore the convenience of addressing it at an individual and colective level. Different leadership styles are also analyzed to propose a definition of capacity development and leadership adapted to the rural environment. The above theoretical framework allows to set, in a second research phase, the scientific basis of the proposed model: the model DCL of Capacity Development for Leadership in rural development projects. This model incorporates elements of the conceptual framework Working With People (Cazorla et al., 2013), the result of 25 years of experience in the field of project planning for rural development from the research group GESPLAN of the Technical University of Madrid. The DCL model integrates quantitative and qualitative methodologies and a double scale of analysis to promote and evaluate capacity development in the local population from three components: technical-entrepreneurial, relational and contextual. Besides the DCL model incorporates a methodological process to integrate monitoring and evaluation of capacities throughout the project cycle. Finally, in an application phase, DCL model validation is undertaken through the case study of a development project with an organization of women artisans of Aymara communities in Puno (Peru). This project, that incorporates the WWP conceptual framework, integrates 5 years of experience with Aymara communities from GESPLAN research group. The application shows how the DCL model allows to assess the development of capacities for leadership. Also, the incorporation of lessons learned after monitoring and evaluation of capacity development allows to redirect actions to improve project planning and management and produce a true empowerment and leadership of the local organization. This translates into increased project sustainability and social resilience of the organization.

Building resilience to water scarcity in Southern Spain: A case study of rice farming in Doñana protected wetlands

Agricultural water management needs to evolve in view of increased water scarcity, especially when farming and natural protected areas are closely linked. In the study site of Don?ana (southern Spain), water is shared by rice producers and a world heritage biodiversity ecosystem. Our aim is to contribute to defining adaptation strategies that may build resilience to increasing water scarcity and minimize water conflicts among agricultural and natural systems. The analytical framework links a participatory process with quantitative methods to prioritize the adaptation options. Bottom-up proposed adaptation measures are evaluated by a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) that includes both socioeconomic criteria and criteria of the ecosystem services affected by the adaptation options. Criteria weights are estimated by three different methods?analytic hierarchy process, Likert scale and equal weights?that are then compared. Finally, scores from an MCA are input into an optimization model used to determine the optimal land-use distribution in order to maximize utility and land-use diversification according to different scenarios of funds and water availability. While our results show a spectrum of perceptions of priorities among stakeholders, there is one overriding theme that is to define a way to restore part of the rice fields to natural wetlands. These results hold true under the current climate scenario and evenmore so under an increased water scarcity scenario.