Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Iran's domestic and foreign policies

Iran has a reputation of being a problematic country. Right now, it is proceeding with its nuclear program despite the opposition of the West and neighboring countries and the massive sanctions inflicted upon it. The country is also struggling with domestic issues. Half of Iran’s population belongs to different ethnic or religious minorities. They have poor rights to express their culture in the country, which is a cause of dissatisfaction among non-Shiite and non-Persian citizens. After the Arab Spring, the situation in Iran is getting more topical than ever. In the Syrian conflict, the Shiite Iran is constantly giving support to al-Assad’s regime. These are all factors that have aggravated the already irritated relations between Iran and the West.

Käsitteen pre-conflict käsiteanalyysi

Maailmassa on tälläkin hetkellä käynnissä useita sotaan rinnastettavia aseellisia selkkauksia. Käsite sota on kuitenkin menettänyt merkitystään ja sen on korvanneet käsitteet kuten aseellinen selkkaus ja konflikti. Kansainvälisessä ja humanitaarisessa oikeudessa on epäonnistuttu käsitteiden määrittelyssä, mikä on luonut haasteita lakien ja säädösten tulkintaan. Sodankuvan muutoksen ja kansainvälisen oikeuden kehittymisen myötä myös sodan julistus on menettänyt merkityksensä, mikä on johtanut siihen, että aseellisten selkkausten ja konfliktien alkuajankohtaa on hyvin vaikea määritellä. Tässä tutkimuksessa avataan ja selvennetään käsitteen pre-conflict merkitys käsiteanalyysin avulla. Päämääränä ei ole kääntää käsitettä suomeksi, vaan tuottaa lisää tietoa käsitteestä. Tutkimusaineistona käytetään EU:n, YK:n sekä Naton virallisia tiedotteita vuonna 2011 alkaneesta Syyrian tilanteesta. Analyysin avulla saavutetaan ymmärrys EU:n, YK:n sekä Naton käsitteiden käytölle, jonka avulla käsitteen pre-conflict ominaispiirteet, säännönmukaisuudet ja syysuhteet kyetään tunnistamaan. Analyysin ensimmäisessä osassa keskitytään käsitteen osien alkuperän tunnistamiseen ja analyysin tavoitteiden asettamiseen. Seuraavassa osassa Syyrian tilanteelle suoritetaan perusteellinen analyysi, jonka avulla käsitteen ominaispiirteet kyetään tunnistamaan. Pääkäsite erotetaan sen lähikäsitteistä sota, sisällissota sekä kriisi ja sen pohjalta käsitteelle luodaan ennakkoehdot ja seuraukset. Lopuksi pragmaattisuuden tavoittelemiseksi käsitteelle luodaan malliesimerkki Syyrian tilanteeseen sitoen. Tutkielma tiivistyy empiiriseen malliin, josta käsitteen tarkasteleminen yksinkertaistuu. Laajan kirjallisuuskatsauksen tuloksena voidaan käsitteen todeta tarkoittavan aikaa ennen konfliktia. Käsite konflikti on rinnastettavissa kansainvälisessä oikeuden tunnistamaan aseelliseen selkkaukseen. Keskeisimmät tutkimustulokset liittyvät käsitteen pre-conflict ajalliseen rajaukseen. Ajallisesti pre-conflict-ajan alku rajautuu yksittäiseen tapahtumaan, minkä jälkeen tilanne ei tule päättymään ennen kuin aseellinen selkkaus on saavuttanut ratkaisunsa. Pre-conflict-aika rajaa rauhanajan sekä erilaiset yhteiskunnalliset häiriötilanteet ajasta, jolloin häiriötilanteet eskaloituvat aseelliseksi selkkaukseksi sekä aikaan jolloin tilanne on jo eskaloitunut aseelliseksi selkkaukseksi. Kohdistettaessa tutkimusta aikaan ennen aseellisen selkkauksen alkua saadaan tietoa eskaloitumisen syistä, jolloin ennaltaehkäisevät toimenpiteet olisivat hyödynnettävissä alkavissa tilanteissa. Sotilaallisiin kriiseihin tai aseellisiin selkkauksiin liittyy voimakeinojen käyttö, joita säännellään kansallisessa lainsäädännössä. Voimankäyttö perustuu osittain kansainvälisen oikeuteen ja niiden sopimuksiin, joissa säädetään muun muassa suhteellisen voimankäytön periaate. Siinä missä rauhanaikana varaudutaan erinäisiin uhkatilanteisiin ja laaditaan suunnitelmia häiriötiloja ja poikkeusoloja varten, tulisi myös varautua poistamalla käsitteisiin liittyvät epäselvyydet. Laatimalla malleja, joiden avulla alkavat tilanteet tai aseelliset selkkaukset tunnistetaan ajoissa, mahdollistetaan oikeanaikainen päätöksenteko ja ennaltaehkäisevät toimenpiteet.

Liminal Monster and the Conflict Between Human and Machine: The Shrike in Dan Simmons’ Hyperion and The Fall of Hyperion

Tarkastelen tutkielmassani Dan Simmonsin kaksiosaista tieteisfiktioteosta, joka koostuu romaaneista Hyperion ja The Fall of Hyperion. Keskityn teoksissa esiintyvään Shrike-hirviöön, joka edustaa ihmiskunnan pelkäämää potentiaalista konfliktia ihmisten ja koneiden välillä. Pelko ja konflikti ovat keskeisiä teemoja paitsi tieteisfiktiossa, myös hirviöteoksissa yleensä, ja näiden kahden käyttö samassa kertomuksessa luo otolliset edellytykset nyky-yhteiskunnan ahdistusten kuvaamiseen. Hirviöitä ja tieteisfiktiota on tätä nykyä tutkittu melko laajalti, mutta Shrike on aiemmin jäänyt vähälle huomiolle. Lähtökohtaisen teoreettisen viitekehyksen tutkimukselleni ovat luoneet Jeffrey Cohenin Monster Theory: Reading Culture, Stephen Asman On Monsters: An Unnatural History of Our Worst Fears sekä Holly Lynn Baumgartnerin ja Roger Davisin At the Interface: Hosting the Monster. Teoksista kokoamani hirviöteorian kautta tarkastelen sitä, miten Shriken puoliksi orgaaninen ja puoliksi keinotekoinen keho heijastaa niitä romaaneissa esiintyviä osa-alueita, joista tulevaisuudenpelko ja ihmisten ja koneiden väliseen konfliktin uhka koostuu. Koska Shrike on puoliksi orgaaninen ja puoliksi keinotekoinen, se on näiden ominaisuuksien kynnyksellä; tässä risteytyneessä kehossa yhdistyvät molemmat ääripäät, jolloin tämä keho myös symboloi osapuolten välistä konfliktia. Konfliktin lisäksi Shrike ilmentää niitä vastakkaisuuksia, joista ihmisten ja koneiden välisen konfliktin pelko rakentuu: itseyttä ja toiseutta, houkuttelevuutta ja luotaantyöntävyyttä, menneisyyttä ja tulevaisuutta sekä utopiaa ja dystopiaa.

Using classroom meetings to transfer conflict resolution skills /

This study examined whether daily classroom meetings resulted in the positive transfer of conflict resolution information and skills beyond the formal classroom setting and into the classroom. A control group of sixteen Grade five students received three weeks of conflict resolution training and an experimental group of nineteen Grade five students fi-om the same school received three weeks of conflict resolution training followed by three additional weeks of class meetings. Pretest measures were taken via a scaled questionnaire and short answer questions before the conflict resolution lessons began for the following skills: knowledge of conflict resolution; conflict resolution behaviour; and attitude about using conflict resolution to resolve problems with other people. Posttest measures examined conflict resolution skills following involvement in the study. Students chosen randomly and both teachers were interviewed following the study. The teachers were again interviewed three months after the study. Teacher journal notes rounded out the data. The results of the study indicated that the Grade five boys who participated in three weeks of conflict resolution training did not increase their conflict resolution skills in any of the areas examined. Girls who participated in three weeks of conflict resolution training did not improve in two areas (i.e., behaviour, knowledge) and became less positive about using verbal mediation to resolve conflicts. The Grade five students who participated in three weeks of training and three weeks of class meetings obtained different results. The boys improved significantly in their ability to use verbal mediation to resolve conflicts and were more positive about verbal mediation. They did not become more knowledgeable about verbal mediation. The girls who participated in three weeks of training and three weeks of class meetings were more knowledgeable of conflict resolution and used conflict resolution to solve problems with other people. However, they were significantly less positive about using these skills to resolve problems.

A Study of role conflict, role ambiguity, locus of control, job satisfaction and participation in decision making among front-line vocational service workers for mentally retarded adults

This study was an investigation of individual and organizational factors, as perceived by front-line vocational service workers from Adult Rehabilitation Centres (ARC Industries) for mentally retarded adults. The specific variables which were measured included role conflict/role ambiguity (role factors), internal/external locus of control (individual differences), job satisfaction with work and supervision (job attitudes) and participation in deci~ion making (organizational factor). The exploration of these constructs was conducted by means of self-report questionnaires which were completed by sixty-nine out of a total of ninety front-line employees. The surveys were distributed in booklet form to nine distinct rehabilitation facilities from St. Catharines, West Lincoln, Greater Niagara, Port Colborne, WeIland, Fort Erie, Hamilton, Guelph and Brantford. The survey data was evaluated by the statisti.cal Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) which used the Pearson Product Moment Correlation procedure and a compar~son of means test. A comparison of correlation coefficients test was also conducted. This statistical procedure was calculated mathematically. The results obtained from the statistical evaluation confirmed the prediction that self-reported measures of participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision) would be negatively correlated with role conflict and role ambiguity. As well, the speculation that perceived satisfaction (work and supervision) would be positively correlated with participation in decision making was empirically supported. Internal and external locus of control did not contribute to a significant difference in r~sponses to role perceptions (conflict and ambiguity) , satisfaction (work and supervision) or the correlational relationship between participation in decision making and satisfaction (work and supervision). Overall, the findings from this study substantiated the importance of examining employee perceptions in the workplace and the interrelationships among individual and organizational variables. This research was considered a contribution to the general area of occupational stress and to the study of individuals in work organizations.

Broad reduction and adoption in ring-billed gulls (Larus Delaworensis): the potential for inergenerational conflict

Patterns of intra-clutch egg size variation and intra-clutch hatch intervals in the Ring-billed gull (Larus delawarensis) were documented during the peak nesting period of two consecutive breeding seasons, at a colony near Port Colborne, Ontario. Egg size decreased with laying order; third laid eggs were significantly smaller than first laid eggs. Hatching of the third egg was delayed from that of first and second eggs. Intraclutch egg size differences established initial size disparities among chicks at hatch. Hatch intervals further exaggerated size disparities during the early post brood completion period. Competitive asymmetries among chicks were associated with increased mortality rates among third hatched chicks despite the lack of evidence of a sibling feeding hierarchy. Fledging success in 1987 was greater than in 1988. A "brood reduction strategy" appears to have enabled parents in 1987, to obtain an extra unit of reproductive fitness, while in 1988 parents were often unable to raise the entire brood and third chicks likely represented insurance reproductive value. Experimental broods (1988) were created in which hatch intervals were double those of natural intervals. The size disparities among chicks were significantly greater than in control broods, and the pattern of mortality among chicks suggested that first chicks benefited at a cost to second and third chicks. Parents of peak experimental broods achieved a fledging success rate similar to that of control broods. Characteristics of chick adoptions were also recorded. In each study year, 9 chicks abandoned their natal territories, 6 of which were adopted. Chicks consistently established themselves into broods where they were older than resident chicks. No direct evidence of cost to foster parents, or benefits to adopted chicks was obtained, although fledging success of adopted chicks was high.

Problem children with and without communication delays : the changes in their parents' report of challenging behaviour, parental hassles and family conflict over a two -year period

The goal of this study was to examine the change, over a two year period, in mothers' reports of children's challenging behaviour and family conflict as they relate to change in parenting hassles (stress) among families who have preschool children with and without communication delays. Forty-four parent-child dyads participated in this Family Resource Project study that was funded by the Canadian Language and Literacy Research Network. Thirty-one ofthese families had preschool children with communication delays and 13 children were identified as not having communication delays. Child behaviour was evaluated using the Oppositional Subscale and ADHD Index of the Conners Parent Rating Scale (CPRS-R:S), the Conflict Subscale ofthe Family Environment Scale was used to examine family conflict, and the Parent Hassles Scale was used to examine parental stress. Results showed that change in mothers' daily hassles was influenced by change in their preschool children's ADHD behaviour and change in family conflict. Change in child oppositional behaviour did not predict change in mothers' hassles scores.

Predictors of shy children's coping with a social conflict : mediators and moderators

Shy children are at risk for later maladjustment due to ineffective coping with social conflicts through reliance on avoidance, rather than approach-focused, coping. The purpose of the present study was to explore whether the relation between shyness and children's coping was mediated by attributions and moderated by personality selftheories and gender. Participants included a classroom-based sample of 175 children (93 boys), aged 9-13 years (M = 10.11 years, SD = 0.92). Children completed self-report measures assessing shyness, attributions, personality self-theories and coping strategies. Results showed that negative attribution biases partially mediated the negative relations between shyness and social support seeking, as well as problem-solving, and the positive association between shyness and externalizing. Moreover, self-theories moderated the relation between shyness and internalizing coping at the trend level, such that the positive relation was exacerbated among entity-oriented children to a greater degree than incrementally-oriented children. In terms of gender differences, shyness was related to lower use of social support and problem-solving among incrementally-oriented boys and entity-oriented girls. Thus, shy children's perceptions of social conflicts as the outcome of an enduring trait (e.g., social incompetence) may partially explain why they do not act assertively and aggress as a means of social coping. Furthermore, entity-oriented beliefs may exacerbate shy children's reliance on internalizing actions, such as crying. Although an incrementally-oriented stance may enhance shy girls' reliance on approach strategies, it does not appear to serve the same protective role for shy boys. Therefore, copingoriented interventions may need to focus on restructuring shy children's social cognitions and implementing gender-specific programming for their personality biases.

Unveiling Shi’i Religious Identities: Case Studies of Hijab in Culturally Homogeneous Canadian Schools

This qualitative case study explored 10 young female Shi’i Muslim Arabic-Canadian students’ experiences associated with wearing the Hijab (headscarf) within their home, community, and predominantly White Canadian public elementary school environments. The study integrated several bodies of scholarly theories in order to examine the data under a set of comprehensive lenses that more fully articulates and theorizes on the diversity of female Shi’i Muslim Canadian students’ experiences. These theories are: identity theories with a focus on religious identity and negative stereotypes associated with Muslims; feminism and the Hijab discourses; research pertaining to Muslims in school settings; and critical race theory. In order to readdress the dearth of information about Shi’is’ experiences in schools, this study provides an in-depth case study analysis in which the methodology strategies included 10 semi-structured in-depth interviews, 2 focus-group meetings, and the incorporation of the researcher’s fieldnotes. Data analysis revealed the following themes corresponding to participants’ experiences and values in their social worlds of home, community, and schools: (a) martyrdom and self-sacrifice as a means for social justice; (b) transformational meaning of the Hijab; (c) intersectionality between culture, religion, and gender; and (d) effects of visits “back home” on participants’ religious identities. Additional themes related to participants’ school experiences included: (a) “us versus them” mentality; (b) religious and complex secular dialogues; (c) absence of Muslim representations in monocultural schools; (d) discrimination; (e) remaining silent versus speaking out; and (f) participants’ strategies for preserving their identities. Recommendations are made to integrate Shi’i Muslim females’ identity within the context of Islam and the West, most notably in relation to: (a) the role of Muslim community in nondiverse settings as a space that advances and nurtures Shi’i Muslim identity; and (b) holistic and culturally responsive teaching that fosters respect of others’ religiosity and spirituality. This study makes new inroads into feminist theorizing by drawing conceptual links between these previously unknown connections such as the impact of the historical female exemplary role model and the ritual stories on the experiences of Muslim females wearing the Hijab.