819 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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Background Relatively little international work has examined whether mental health resource allocation matches need. This study aimed to determine whether adult mental health resources in Australia are being distributed equitably. Method Individual measures of need were extrapolated to Australian Areas, and Area-based proxies of need were considered. Particular attention was paid to the prevalence of mental health problems, since this is arguably the most objective measure of need. The extent to which these measures predicted public sector, private sector and total adult mental health expenditure at an Area level was examined. Results In the public sector, 41.6% of expenditure variation was explained by the prevalence of affective disorders, personality disorders, cognitive impairment and psychosis, as well as the Area's level of economic resources and State/Territory effects. In the private sector, 72.4% of expenditure variation was explained by service use and State/Territory effects (with an alternative model incorporating service use and State/Territory supply of private psychiatrists explaining 69.4% of expenditure variation). A relatively high proportion (58.7%) of total expenditure variation could be explained by service utilisation and State/Territory effects. Conclusions For services to be delivered equitably, the majority of variation in expenditure would have to be accounted for by appropriate measures of need. The best model for public sector expenditure included an appropriate measure of need but had relatively poor explanatory power. The models for private sector and total expenditure had greater explanatory power, but relied on less appropriate measures of need. It is concluded that mental health services in Australia are not yet being delivered equitably.

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A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

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Objectives The aims of the study were to describe the prevalence and associations of mental health disorder (MHD) among a cohort of HIV-infected patients attending the Victorian HIV/AIDS Service between 1984 and 2000, and to examine whether antiretroviral therapy use or mortality was influenced by MHD (defined as a record of service provision by psychiatric services on the Victorian Psychiatric Case Register). It was hypothesized that HIV-positive individuals with MHD would have poorer treatment outcomes, reduced responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and increased mortality compared with those without MHD. Methods This is a retrospective cohort of 2981 individuals (73% of the Victorian population diagnosed with HIV infection) captured on an HIV database which was electronically matched with the public Victorian Psychiatric Case Register (VPCR) (accounting for 95% of public system psychiatry service provision). The prevalence, dates and recorded specifics of mental health disorders at the time of the electronic match on 1 June 2000 are described. The association with recorded MHD, gender, age, AIDS illness, HIV exposure category, duration and type of antiviral therapy, treatment era (prior to 1986, post-1987 and pre-HAART, and post-HAART) on hospitalization and mortality at 1 September 2001 was assessed. Results Five hundred and twenty-five individuals (17.6% of the Victorian HIV-positive population) were recorded with MHD, most frequently coded as attributable to substance dependence/abuse or affective disorder. MHD was diagnosed prior to HIV in 33% and, of those diagnosed after HIV, 93.8% were recorded more than 1 year after the HIV diagnosis. Schizophrenia was recorded in 6% of the population with MHD. Hospitalizations for both psychiatric and nonpsychiatric illness were more frequent in those with MHD (relative risk 5.4; 95% confidence interval 3.7, 8.2). The total number of antiretrovirals used (median 6.4 agents vs 5.5 agents) was greater in those with MHD. When adjusted for antiretroviral treatment era, HIV exposure category, CD4 cell count and antiretroviral therapy, survival was not affected by MHD. Conclusions MHD is frequent in this population with HIV infection and is associated with increased healthcare utilization but not with reduced survival.

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Benchmarking of the performance of states, provinces, or districts in a decentralised health system is important for fostering of accountability, monitoring of progress, identification of determinants of success and failure, and creation of a culture of evidence. The Mexican Ministry of Health has, since 2001, used a benchmarking approach based on the World Health Organization (WHO) concept of effective coverage of an intervention, which is defined as the proportion of potential health gain that could be delivered by the health system to that which is actually delivered. Using data collection systems, including state representative examination surveys, vital registration, and hospital discharge registries, we have monitored the delivery of 14 interventions for 2005-06. Overall effective coverage ranges from 54.0% in Chiapas, a poor state, to 65.1% in the Federal District. Effective coverage for maternal and child health interventions is substantially higher than that for interventions that target other health problems. Effective coverage for the lowest wealth quintile is 52% compared with 61% for the highest quintile. Effective coverage is closely related to public-health spending per head across states; this relation is stronger for interventions that are not related to maternal and child health than those for maternal and child health. Considerable variation also exists in effective coverage at similar amounts of spending. We discuss the implications of these issues for the further development of the Mexican health-information system. Benchmarking of performance by measuring effective coverage encourages decision-makers to focus on quality service provision, not only service availability. The effective coverage calculation is an important device for health-system stewardship. In adopting this approach, other countries should select interventions to be measured on the basis of the criteria of affordability, effect on population health, effect on health inequalities, and capacity to measure the effects of the intervention. The national institutions undertaking this benchmarking must have the mandate, skills, resources, and independence to succeed.

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The Post-Fordist welfare state thesis locates contemporary social welfare change within a wider analysis of the transformation of capitalist accumulation regimes. Whilst this analysis is useful in directing attention to macro socio-economic change, it has for the most part contained three shortcomings. First, the Post-Fordist thesis has overemphasized the role of historical 'breaks' in the development of social welfare as it purportedly passes from Fordism to Post-Fordism. Second, the thesis has assumed a degree of convergence between welfare states as a result of global economic forces. In doing so, it has underemphasized the mediating impact of existing institutional arrangements within nations. Third, the thesis has assumed, rather than demonstrated, the specific changes which are alleged to be taking place in various fields of social welfare. As a consequence, aspects of continuity in social welfare have been neglected. These three lacunae are addressed through a comparative analysis of developments in the personal social services in Australia and Britain. Services to older people are employed as the specific context of comparison in relation to three dimensions of measuring transformation along a Post-Fordist trajectory: a shift from a unitary economy to a mixed economy of service provision; changes in the model of service delivery and consumption; and strengthening the governance function of the central state. This comparative analysis suggests the need for refinement of the Post-Fordist welfare state thesis concerning the restructuring of social welfare and its impact on the personal social services.

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This paper extends the original service profit chain by examining the role of relational capabilities with employees, customers and strategic partners on process and performance outcomes in a business-to-business context. More specifically, we demonstrate how satisfied and loyal employees are better in developing relationships with customers and strategic partners. These relationships enable firms to be more responsive towards customers and become more innovative, which increase customer satisfaction and loyalty and, ultimately, financial performance. Our results provide support for the development of relational capabilities in a business-to-business environment by extending the service profit chain (SPC) model. However, we find that while the development of strong customer relationships contributes to an improved service responsiveness of the firm, strategic partners do not.

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This study is about the role and operation of ‘third sector’ organisations (TSOs) within the Taiwanese social welfare context. TSOs have increased dramatically and become actively involved in social service provision. This phenomenon has not only had significant impact on the development and operation of TSOs in Taiwan but it is also of increasing interest to public policy academics. The latter are especially interested in the implications for the government-third sector relationship. This research examines the reasons why TSOs have been established, why they actively participate in social service provision, and their role and operation within the social welfare context of Taiwan. The study has both quantitative and qualitative data. It sampled ‘social service’ and ‘charitable’ organisations (SSCOs), which are the main type of TSOs in Taiwan, to examine their role, operation and interaction with government. Questionnaires were mailed to collect quantitative data first. After the quantitative data were collected and analysed, semi-structured interviews were undertaken to collect qualitative data. The study found that TSOs in Taiwan exist in a highly institutionalised environment, which is affected by traditional Confucian ideas and contemporary Western ideas such as social justice and civil rights. The rapid growth of TSOs has a strong connection with the desire to fill social service gaps left by government and family. TSOs mainly play the role of service provider rather than that of advocate. They cooperate with government in social service provision and have developed different types of symbiotic relationships with government. A ‘resonance effect’ between government and TSOs was also found as they implement social policy.

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This research investigates the contribution that Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can make to the land suitability process used to determine the effects of a climate change scenario. The research is intended to redress the severe under representation of Developing countries within the literature examining the impacts of climatic change upon crop productivity. The methodology adopts some of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates for regional climate variations, based upon General Circulation Model predictions (GCMs) and applies them to a baseline climate for Bangladesh. Utilising the United Nations Food & Agricultural Organisation's Agro-ecological Zones land suitability methodology and crop yield model, the effects of the scenario upon agricultural productivity on 14 crops are determined. A Geographic Information System (IDRISI) is adopted in order to facilitate the methodology, in conjunction with a specially designed spreadsheet, used to determine the yield and suitability rating for each crop. A simple optimisation routine using the GIS is incorporated to provide an indication of the 'maximum theoretical' yield available to the country, should the most calorifically significant crops be cultivated on each land unit both before and after the climate change scenario. This routine will provide an estimate of the theoretical population supporting capacity of the country, both now and in the future, to assist with planning strategies and research. The research evaluates the utility of this alternative GIS based methodology for the land evaluation process and determines the relative changes in crop yields that may result from changes in temperature, photosynthesis and flooding hazard frequency. In summary, the combination of a GIS and a spreadsheet was successful, the yield prediction model indicates that the application of the climate change scenario will have a deleterious effect upon the yields of the study crops. Any yield reductions will have severe implications for agricultural practices. The optimisation routine suggests that the 'theoretical maximum' population supporting capacity is well in excess of current and future population figures. If this agricultural potential could be realised however, it may provide some amelioration from the effects of climate change.

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A view has emerged within manufacturing and service organizations that the operations management function can hold the key to achieving competitive edge. This has recently been emphasized by the demands for greater variety and higher quality which must be set against a background of increasing cost of resources. As nations' trade barriers are progressively lowered and removed, so producers of goods and service products are becoming more exposed to competition that may come from virtually anywhere around the world. To simply survive in this climate many organizations have found it necessary to improve their manufacturing or service delivery systems. To become real ''winners'' some have adopted a strategic approach to operations and completely reviewed and restructured their approach to production system design and operations planning and control. The articles in this issue of the International journal of Operations & Production Management have been selected to illustrate current thinking and practice in relation to this situation. They are all based on papers presented to the Sixth International Conference of the Operations Management Association-UK which was held at Aston University in June 1991. The theme of the conference was "Achieving Competitive Edge" and authors from 15 countries around the world contributed to more than 80 presented papers. Within this special issue five topic areas are addressed with two articles relating to each. The topics are: strategic management of operations; managing change; production system design; production control; and service operations. Under strategic management of operations De Toni, Filippini and Forza propose a conceptual model which considers the performance of an operating system as a source of competitive advantage through the ''operation value chain'' of design, purchasing, production and distribution. Their model is set within the context of the tendency towards globalization. New's article is somewhat in contrast to the more fashionable literature on operations strategy. It challenges the validity of the current idea of ''world-class manufacturing'' and, instead, urges a reconsideration of the view that strategic ''trade-offs'' are necessary to achieve a competitive edge. The importance of managing change has for some time been recognized within the field of organization studies but its relevance in operations management is now being realized. Berger considers the use of "organization design", ''sociotechnical systems'' and change strategies and contrasts these with the more recent idea of the ''dialogue perspective''. A tentative model is suggested to improve the analysis of different strategies in a situation specific context. Neely and Wilson look at an essential prerequisite if change is to be effected in an efficient way, namely product goal congruence. Using a case study as its basis, their article suggests a method of measuring goal congruence as a means of identifying the extent to which key performance criteria relating to quality, time, cost and flexibility are understood within an organization. The two articles on production systems design represent important contributions to the debate on flexible production organization and autonomous group working. Rosander uses the results from cases to test the applicability of ''flow groups'' as the optimal way of organizing batch production. Schuring also examines cases to determine the reasons behind the adoption of ''autonomous work groups'' in The Netherlands and Sweden. Both these contributions help to provide a greater understanding of the production philosophies which have emerged as alternatives to more conventional systems -------for intermittent and continuous production. The production control articles are both concerned with the concepts of ''push'' and ''pull'' which are the two broad approaches to material planning and control. Hirakawa, Hoshino and Katayama have developed a hybrid model, suitable for multistage manufacturing processes, which combines the benefits of both systems. They discuss the theoretical arguments in support of the system and illustrate its performance with numerical studies. Slack and Correa's concern is with the flexibility characteristics of push and pull material planning and control systems. They use the case of two plants using the different systems to compare their performance within a number of predefined flexibility types. The two final contributions on service operations are complementary. The article by Voss really relates to manufacturing but examines the application of service industry concepts within the UK manufacturing sector. His studies in a number of companies support the idea of the ''service factory'' and offer a new perspective for manufacturing. Harvey's contribution by contrast, is concerned with the application of operations management principles in the delivery of professional services. Using the case of social-service provision in Canada, it demonstrates how concepts such as ''just-in-time'' can be used to improve service performance. The ten articles in this special issue of the journal address a wide range of issues and situations. Their common aspect is that, together, they demonstrate the extent to which competitiveness can be improved via the application of operations management concepts and techniques.

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This paper presents an InfoStation-based multi-agent system facilitating a Car Parking Locator service provision within a University Campus. The system network architecture is outlined, illustrating its functioning during the service provision. A detailed description of the Car Parking Locator service is given and the system entities’ interaction is described. System implementation approaches are also considered.

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This paper presents an adaptable InfoStation-based multi-agent system facilitating the mobile eLearning (mLearning) service provision within a University Campus. A horizontal view of the network architecture is presented. Main communications scenarios are considered by describing the detailed interaction of the system entities involved in the mLearning service provision. The mTest service is explored as a practical example. System implementation approaches are also considered.

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Background: The aim of this study was to describe bilateral visual outcomes and the effect of incomplete follow-up after 3 years of ranibizumab therapy for neovascular age-related macular degeneration. Secondarily, the demands on service provision over a 3-year period were described. Methods: Data on visual acuity, hospital visits, and injections were collected over 36 months on consecutive patients commencing treatment over a 9-month period. Visual outcome was determined for 1) all patients, using last observation carried forward for missed visits due to early discontinuation and 2) only those patients completing full 36-month follow-up. Results: Over 3 years, 120 patients cumulatively attended hospital for 1,823 noninjection visits and 1,365 injection visits. A visual acuity loss of <15 letters (L) was experienced by 78.2% of patients. For all patients (n=120), there was a mean loss of 1.68 L using last observation carried forward for missing values. Excluding five patients who died and 30 who discontinued follow-up, mean gain was 1.47 L. In bilateral cases, final acuity was on average 9 L better in second eyes compared to first eyes. Also, 91% of better-seeing eyes continued to be the better-seeing eye. Conclusion: We have demonstrated our approach to describing the long-term service provision and visual outcomes of ranibizumab therapy for neovascular age-related macular degeneration in a consecutive cohort of patients. Although there was a heavy burden with very frequent injections and clinic visits, patients can expect a good level of visual stability and a very high chance of maintaining their better-seeing eye for up to 3 years. © 2014 Chavan et al. This work is published by Dove Medical Press Limited.

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Neuropsychiatry services provide specialist input into the assessment and management of behavioral symptoms associated with a range of neurological conditions, including epilepsy. Despite the centrality of epilepsy to neuropsychiatry and the recent expansion of neuropsychiatry service provision, little is known about the clinical characteristics of patients with epilepsy who are routinely seen by a specialist neuropsychiatry service. This retrospective study filled this gap by retrospectively evaluating a naturalistic series of 60 consecutive patients with epilepsy referred to and assessed within a neuropsychiatry setting. Fifty-two patients (86.7%) had active epilepsy and were under the ongoing care of the referring neurologist for seizure management. The majority of patients (N = 42; 70.0%) had a diagnosis of localization-related epilepsy, with temporal lobe epilepsy as the most common epilepsy type (N = 37; 61.7%). Following clinical assessment, 39 patients (65.0%) fulfilled formal diagnostic criteria for at least one psychiatric disorder; nonepileptic attack disorder (N = 37; 61.7%), major depression (N = 23; 38.3%), and generalized anxiety disorder (N = 16; 26.7%) were the most commonly diagnosed comorbidities. The clinical characteristics of patients seen in specialist neuropsychiatry settings are in line with the results from previous studies in neurology clinics in terms of both epilepsy and psychiatric comorbidity. Our findings confirm the need for the development and implementation of structured care pathways for the neuropsychiatric aspects of epilepsy, with focus on comorbid nonepileptic attacks and affective and anxiety symptoms. This is of particular importance in consideration of the impact of behavioral symptoms on patients' health-related quality of life.

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Adoption of special needs children is now seen as a life long event whereby the adoptive child and family have unique needs. The need for postplacement resources throughout the life cycle of the adoption process is evident. This exploratory-descriptive research employed a random stratified cross-sectional design. The purpose of the study was to describe, identify, examine, and assess the relative influence of identified empirically and conceptually relevant variables of self-report experiences of adoptive parents of special needs children. Primary areas of exploration included: (1) adoptive children and families' characteristics, (2) postplacement service needs, utilization and satisfaction, and (3) adoptive parents' perceptions of their adoption experiences. A proportionate stratified random mail survey was used to obtain 474 families who had adopted special needs children from the 15 geographic districts which make up the state adoption social service agency in Florida. A 144-item survey questionnaire was used to collect basic information on demographic data, service provision, and adoption experiences. Four research questions were analyzed to test the effect the predictor variables had on willingness to adopt another special needs child, successful adoption, satisfying experience, and realism about problems. All four research questions revealed that the full model and the child's antecedent and the adoptive parents' intervening variable blocks were significant in explaining the variance in the dependent variables. The child's intervening variables alone were only significant in explaining the variance for one of the dependent variables. The results of the statistical analysis on the fifth research question and the three hypotheses determined that (1) only one postplacement service, crisis intervention, had a statistically significant impact on the adoptive parents' perceived level of satisfaction with the adoption experience; (2) adoptive parents who rate their adoption as successful are more likely to express a desire to adopt another special needs child; (3) the more adequate information on the child the adoptive parents perceived that they had prior to placement, the more they perceived they were realistic about the problems they would encounter; and (4) six specific postplacement services were found to be significant in predicting successful adoptions--crisis intervention, outpatient drug/alcohol treatment, maintenance subsidy, physical therapy, special medical equipment, and family counseling. Implications for the social work field and future research are discussed. ^

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The work motivation construct is central to the theory and practice of many social science disciplines. Yet, due to the novelty of validated measures appropriate for a deep cross-national comparison, studies that contrast different administrative regimes remain scarce. This study represents an initial empirical effort to validate the Public Service Motivation (PSM) instrument proposed by Kim and colleagues (2013) in a previously unstudied context. The two former communist countries analyzed in this dissertation—Belarus and Poland— followed diametrically opposite development strategies: a fully decentralized administrative regime in Poland and a highly centralized regime in Belarus. The employees (n = 677) of public and nonprofit organizations in the border regions of Podlaskie Wojewodstwo (Poland) and Hrodna Voblasc (Belarus) are the subjects of study. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed three dimensions of public service motivation in the two regions: compassion, self-sacrifice, and attraction to public service. The statistical models tested in this dissertation suggest that nonprofit sector employees exhibit higher levels of PSM than their public sector counterparts. Nonprofit sector employees also reveal a similar set of values and work attitudes across the countries. Thus, the study concludes that in terms of PSM, employees of nonprofit organizations constitute a homogenous group that exists atop the administrative regimes. However, the findings propose significant differences between public sector agencies across the two countries. Contrary to expectations, data suggest that organization centralization in Poland is equal to—or for some items even higher than—that of Belarus. We can conclude that the absence of administrative decentralization of service provision in a country does not necessarily undermine decentralized practices within organizations. Further analysis reveals strong correlations between organization centralization and PSM for the Polish sample. Meanwhile, in Belarus, correlations between organization centralization items and PSM are weak and mostly insignificant. The analysis indicates other factors beyond organization centralization that significantly impact PSM in both sectors. PSM of the employees in the studied region is highly correlated with their participation in religious practices, political parties, or labor unions as well as location of their organization in a capital and type of social service provided.