Stochastic lattice gas model describing the dynamics of the SIRS epidemic process

We study a stochastic process describing the onset of spreading dynamics of an epidemic in a population composed of individuals of three classes: susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R). The stochastic process is defined by local rules and involves the following cyclic process: S -> I -> R -> S (SIRS). The open process S -> I -> R (SIR) is studied as a particular case of the SIRS process. The epidemic process is analyzed at different levels of description: by a stochastic lattice gas model and by a birth and death process. By means of Monte Carlo simulations and dynamical mean-field approximations we show that the SIRS stochastic lattice gas model exhibit a line of critical points separating the two phases: an absorbing phase where the lattice is completely full of S individuals and an active phase where S, I and R individuals coexist, which may or may not present population cycles. The critical line, that corresponds to the onset of epidemic spreading, is shown to belong in the directed percolation universality class. By considering the birth and death process we analyze the role of noise in stabilizing the oscillations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population structure of pond-raised Macrobrachium amazonicum with different stocking and harvesting strategies

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population Fluctuations of Formicidae (Hymenoptera) and Araneae (Arachnida) in Two Tillage Systems in the Region of Guaíra-SP

The objective of this study was to elucidate population fluctuations of spider and ant species in forest fragments and adjacent soybean and corn crops under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems, and their correlations with meteorological factors. From Nov 2004 to Apr 2007 sampling of these arthropods at Guaira, São Paulo state was done biweekly during the cropping season and monthly during the periods between crops. To obtain samples at each experimental site, pitfall traps were distributed in 2 transects of 200 m of which 100 m was in the crop, and 100 m was in the forest fragment. Temperature and rainfall were found to have major impacts on fluctuations in population densities of ants of the genus, Pheidole, in soybean and corn crops both grown with conventional tillage and no tillage systems.

Biomonitoramento da qualidade da água e ações em educação ambiental em dois açudes da bacia hidrográfica Apodi-Mossoró, RN

Water scarcity is a reality for the inhabitants of the Brazilian semiarid region. The problem, in quantitative terms , is caused due to local climatic conditions due mostly to a water deficit. Qualitatively, results of multiple uses and resulting contamination by human activities. Eutrophication is presented as a threat to the sustainable use of water resources, in order to favor the predominance of dense populations of cyanobacteria, which can be potentially harmful to human health. The aim of this study is to understand the population dynamics of phytoplankton and cyanobacteria to assess water quality of reservoirs Santa Cruz do Apodi and Pau dos Ferros belonging to bacia Apodi Mossoró-RN . Water samples were collected monthly between October 2011 and May 2012 in reservoirs Santa Cruz do Apodi and Pau dos Ferros, in this latter , in Jan/12 we performed a diel profile . The abiotic variables obtained in the field and in the laboratory were: water temperature , dissolved oxygen , pH , turbidity , transparency , total nitrogen and total phosphorus . Phytoplankton samples were collected with a plankton net and bottle of Van dorn . Were performed : identification , quantification , calculation of biovolume , classification into functional groups and index calculation phytoplankton assembly ( Q ) , cyanotoxins were quantified by ELISA . Statistical analyzes supported the evaluation of the dynamics between biotic and abiotic factors. A questionnaire was conducted to examine the conceptions of the population, education professionals and students. The reservoir of Pau dos Ferros, shallow , turbid and eutrophic showed dominance of the functional group SN throughout the sample period . The phytoplankton biomass ranged from 20 to 70 mm ³ . L - 1, the lowest values coincided with the increase of the mixing zone and transparency, which contributed to the occurrence of a change in species composition phytoplankton . The application of the index Q proved relevant, the reservoir of Pau dos Ferros , depending on the species present , was classified ecologically as bad for almost the entire sample period . The reservoir Santa Cruz do Apodi showed low biomass ( 0.04 and 4.31 mm ³ . L - 1 ) and greater diversity in the phytoplankton composition . According to the index assembly (Q ), it showed moderate condition during most of the period influenced by different functional groups of typical meso- eutrophic environment (K S0, H1, C, F , J , E, D and N) . Associations of diatoms and green algae D and X1 succeeded populations of cyanobacteria in periods marked by greater instability in the system , caused by wind or rain. In summary , the occurrence of drought has a direct influence on the hydrological conditions of the reservoirs , in general, these events, reducing the reservoir level is directly related to decreased water quality and increased density of phytoplankton occurring predominance of cyanobacteria , the index Q reflected well to changes in phytoplankton composition , being a good indicator for biomonitoring of reservoirs in this study and survey of previous conceptions showed the need to work on environmental awareness for the preservation of water resources by conducting workshops for Environmental Education

Cidades pequenas, grandes problemas :perfil urbano do Agreste Potiguar

In view of the diversity and the heterogeneity of the existing cities in Brazil, our approach refers to the urban and non-metropolitan areas. Aiming to foment the studies on small cities e to apprehend the sociospatial configuration of the urban environment in such cities, this piece of work elaborates and analyzes the urban profile of the small cities of the Agreste Potiguar region, using as a theoretical reference landmark the production of the urban and regional space, from the decade of 1970 to 2000. Starting from this reference, this piece of work presents an urban sociospatial characterization of the small cities of the Agreste Potiguar region, with emphasis on the economic framework, on the population dynamics, on the main social data, culminating in the main characteristics of the local daily life. The study of the small cities of the Agreste Potiguar region makes it possible the comprehension of the problems that involve the cities of this size, above all, those inserted in economically fragile regions. In the analyzed period, the changes occurred in the productive structure of the State of Rio Grande do Norte triggered a great crisis in the economy of the Agreste Potiguar region. This aspect, allied to the insufficient performance of the public power, contributed to the sprouting of some sociospatial problems, amongst which may be distinguished: the economic fragility, the generalized unemployment, the lack of security and the urban infrastructure absence sufficient to take care of the social demand. Even facing the existing problems, the small cities must be seen as potential spaces, capable to promote the regional development. To do so, it is necessary a process of democratization of the public administration, an ample popular participation and the establishment of a new urban policy, that aims at the social promotion of the individuals, the guarantee of basic necessities and the access to the necessary services to a dignified life

Ecological modeling and pest population management: a possible and necessary connection in a changing world

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Stochastic dynamics in exotic and native blowflies: an analysis combining laboratory experiments and a two-patch metapopulation model

In this study we explored the stochastic population dynamics of three exotic blowfly species, Chrysomya albiceps, Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, and two native species, Cochliomyia macellaria and Lucilia eximia, by combining a density-dependent growth model with a two-patch metapopulation model. Stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were investigated by permitting random variations between predetermined demographic boundary values based on experimental data. Lucilia eximia and Chrysomya albiceps were the species most susceptible to the risk of local extinction. Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria exhibited lower risks of extinction when compared to the other species. The simultaneous analysis of stochastic fecundity and survival revealed an increase in the extinction risk for all species. When stochastic fecundity, survival and migration were simulated together, the coupled populations were synchronized in the five species. These results are discussed, emphasizing biological invasion and interspecific interaction dynamics.

Spatio-temporal dynamics and transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations in Chrysomya albiceps (Diptera, Calliphoridae)

The sensitivity of parameters that govern the stability of population size in Chrysomya albiceps and describe its spatial dynamics was evaluated in this study. The dynamics was modeled using a density-dependent model of population growth. Our simulations show that variation in fecundity and mainly in survival has marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations. C. albiceps exhibits a two-point limit cycle, but the introduction of diffusive dispersal induces an evident qualitative shift from two-point limit cycle to a one fixed-point dynamics. Population dynamics of C. albiceps is here compared to dynamics of Cochliomyia macellaria, C. megacephala and C. putoria.

Dynamics of extinction in coupled populations of the flour beetle Tribolium castaneum

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Population persistence in weakly-coupled sinks

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Population biology and reproduction of the hermit crab Clibanarius vittatus (Decapoda: Anomura) in an estuarine region of southern Brazil

The population dynamics and reproduction of the hermit crab Clibanarius vittatus were evaluated on Pescadores Beach, located on the estuarine channel of Sao Vicente (São Paulo), Brazil. The hermit crabs were captured by hand during low tide,from May 2001 to April 2003. A total of 2554 hermit crabs were captured, of which 701 were males, 1741 non-ovigerous females, 48 ovigerous females and 64 intersex individuals. The size-frequency distribution of the males was represented by a platykurtic bell-shaped curve, which differed from the leptokurtic bell-shaped curve of the females. The smaller and intermediate classes were composed mainly of females (modal size 6.5-7.5 mm carapace shield length (CSL)), and the larger classes only by males (modal size 9.5-10.5 mm CSL). The overall sex-ratio was skewed toward females (0.39:1/M:F), differing significantly from the expected 1:1. A seasonal reproductive pattern was recorded for C. vittatus in this location, with more intensive reproductive activity in the warmer months. The absence of juveniles suggests that their recruitment area is different than the area inhabited by adults, possibly another area with more protection and specialized or different resources for young.

Theoretical Dynamics of Experimental Populations of Introduced and Native Blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Equilibrium dynamics in experimental populations of Chrysomya megacephala (F.) and C. putoria (Wiedemann), which have recently invaded the Americas, and the native species Cochliomyia macellaria (F.), were investigated using nonlinear difference equations. A theoretical analysis of the mathematical model using bifurcation theory established the combination of demographic parameters responsible for producing shifts in blowfly population dynamics from stable equilibria to bounded cycles and aperiodic behavior. Mathematical modeling shows that the populations of the 2 introduced Chrysomya species will form stable oscillations with numbers fluctuating 3-4 times in successive generations. However, in the native species C. macellaria, the dynamics is characterized by damping oscillations in population size, leading to a stable population level.

Phenology of a dioecious population of Batrachospermum delicatulum (Batrachospermales, Rhodophyta) in a stream from southeastern Brazil

The seasonal dynamics of a dioecious population of Batrachospermum delicatulum (Skuja) Necchi and Entwisle was evaluated biweekly during the growth period of the macroscopic gametophyte, from late autumn (May) to early spring (October) in a third-order stream from the northeast region of Sao Paulo State, southeastern Brazil (20°43'S, 49°13'W). The population fluctuated throughout the study period in terms of percentage cover, frequency and chlorophyll content. Percent cover and frequency showed a clear pattern with the lowest values at the initial and final stages of the growth period and the highest in July-August (winter). Gametophyte growth was associated with high illumination and low temperature, which agrees with most observations on Batrachospermales in stream environments. Relatively wide variations in reproductive characteristics were observed during the growth period, which were not correlated with percentage cover, frequency and chlorophyll content. The phenologic pattern observed in this population was characterized by a synchronic development of female/male plant ratio with the number of spermatangia per plant resulting in. (i) a higher proportion of fertilized (carposporophytic) plants associated with more male plants; (ii) higher fertilization rates during the periods with higher production of spermatangia per plant; and (iii) higher production of spermatangia per plant when the population had more male plants. These characteristics were largely associated with water temperature and ion content. In terms of reproductive success, the population studied can be regarded as highly efficient, considering the relatively low proportion of male to female plants and high fertilization rates. These data are consistent with a hypothesis to explain high fertilization rates in dioecious species in lotic habitats consisting of outcrossing among adjacent plants with intermingled male and female branches within an algal cluster. Efficient reproductive strategies have been reported in dioecious, monoecious and even mixed populations of B. delicatulum and can be interpreted as adaptations to successfully colonize streams with different characteristics.

Snake assemblage in a disturbed grassland environment in Rio Grande do Sul State, southern Brazil: Population fluctuations of Liophis poecilogyrus and Pseudablabes agassizii

A mark-recapture study of a snake assemblage using pitfall traps with drift fences was carried out in a disturbed grassland environment (e.g. cattle breeding and cultivations), located in the Pampa Biome, in the central region of the Rio Grande do Sul State, southern Brazil. From February 2001 to January 2004 we caught 272 snakes belonging to 20 species from the following families: Elapidae (5%), Viperidae (10%), and Colubridae (85%). The assemblage had a unimodal seasonal pattern of activity, and the highest number of captures occurred between September and May. There was a positive and significant correlation between the number of captures and monthly minimum and maximum average temperatures. Recruitment was observed from January to April. During the study, the area was affected by human activities, which altered the community structure: Pseudablabes agassizii was negatively affected by habitat devastation while Liophis poecilogyrus took advantage of this. Our results reinforced the impression that Pseudablabes agassizii is a habitat specialist species. We extend the understanding of the susceptibility of this species to environmental destruction in open natural environments of South America, and propose its use as a potential bio-indicator of the Pampa biome. We also discuss the importance of conservation strategies for snakes in grasslands of southern Brazil. © Finnish Zoological and Botanical Publishing Board 2007.