Mechanisms of ocean heat uptake in a coupled climate model and the implications for tracer based predictions of ocean heat uptake

The distribution of tracers in the ocean is often taken as an indication of the ventilation pathways for oceanic water masses. It has been suggested that under anthropogenic forcing heat will be taken up into the interior of the ocean along isopycnal ventilation pathways. This notion is investigated by examining distributions of potential temperature and a passive anomaly temperature tracer in a coupled climate experiment where CO2 is increased at a rate of 2% per year. We show that interior temperature changes cannot be explained solely by passive tracer transport along isopycnals. Heat uptake is strongly affected by changes in circulation and has a substantial diapycnal component.

Model catalyst studies of the strong metal-support interaction: Surface structure identified by STM on Pd nanoparticles on TiO2(110)

Model catalysts of Pd nanoparticles and films on TiO2 (I 10) were fabricated by metal vapour deposition (MVD). Molecular beam measurements show that the particles are active for CO adsorption, with a global sticking probability of 0.25, but that they are deactivated by annealing above 600 K, an effect indicative of SMSI. The Pd nanoparticles are single crystals oriented with their (I 11) plane parallel to the surface plane of the titania. Analysis of the surface by atomic resolution STM shows that new structures have formed at the surface of the Pd nanoparticles and films after annealing above 800 K. There are only two structures, a zigzag arrangement and a much more complex "pinwheel" structure. The former has a unit cell containing 7 atoms, and the latter is a bigger unit cell containing 25 atoms. These new structures are due to an overlayer of titania that has appeared on the surface of the Pd nanoparticles after annealing, and it is proposed that the surface layer that causes the SMSI effect is a mixed alloy of Pd and Ti, with only two discrete ratios of atoms: Pd/Ti of 1: 1 (pinwheel) and 1:2 (zigzag). We propose that it is these structures that cause the SMSI effect. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of satellite image-processing for national-scale estimates of gene flow from genetically modified crops: rapeseed in the UK as a model.

1. There is concern over the possibility of unwanted environmental change following transgene movement from genetically modified (GM) rapeseed Brassica napus to its wild and weedy relatives. 2. The aim of this research was to develop a remote sensing-assisted methodology to help quantify gene flow from crops to their wild relatives over wide areas. Emphasis was placed on locating sites of sympatry, where the frequency of gene flow is likely to be highest, and on measuring the size of rapeseed fields to allow spatially explicit modelling of wind-mediated pollen-dispersal patterns. 3. Remote sensing was used as a tool to locate rapeseed fields, and a variety of image-processing techniques was adopted to facilitate the compilation of a spatially explicit profile of sympatry between the crop and Brassica rapa. 4. Classified satellite images containing rapeseed fields were first used to infer the spatial relationship between donor rapeseed fields and recipient riverside B. rapa populations. Such images also have utility for improving the efficiency of ground surveys by identifying probable sites of sympatry. The same data were then also used for the calculation of mean field size. 5. This paper forms a companion paper to Wilkinson et al. (2003), in which these elements were combined to produce a spatially explicit profile of hybrid formation over the UK. The current paper demonstrates the value of remote sensing and image processing for large-scale studies of gene flow, and describes a generic method that could be applied to a variety of crops in many countries. 6. Synthesis and applications. The decision to approve or prevent the release of a GM cultivar is made at a national rather than regional level. It is highly desirable that data relating to the decision-making process are collected at the same scale, rather than relying on extrapolation from smaller experiments designed at the plot, field or even regional scale. It would be extremely difficult and labour intensive to attempt to carry out such large-scale investigations without the use of remote-sensing technology. This study used rapeseed in the UK as a model to demonstrate the value of remote sensing in assembling empirical information at a national level.

Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

The problem of modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important to both space weather research and forecasting, and yet it has seen relatively little progress. Most important SEP events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal and interplanetary shocks. These shocks can continuously produce accelerated particles from the ambient medium to well beyond 1 AU. This paper describes an effort to model real SEP events using a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) MHD solar wind simulation including a cone model of CMEs to initiate the related shocks. In addition to providing observation-inspired shock geometry and characteristics, this MHD simulation describes the time-dependent observer field line connections to the shock source. As a first approximation, we assume a shock jump-parameterized source strength and spectrum, and that scatter-free transport occurs outside of the shock source, thus emphasizing the role the shock evolution plays in determining the modeled SEP event profile. Three halo CME events on May 12, 1997, November 4, 1997 and December 13, 2006 are used to test the modeling approach. While challenges arise in the identification and characterization of the shocks in the MHD model results, this approach illustrates the importance to SEP event modeling of globally simulating the underlying heliospheric event. The results also suggest the potential utility of such a model for forcasting and for interpretation of separated multipoint measurements such as those expected from the STEREO mission.

Predicting magnetospheric dynamics with a coupled sun-to-Earth model: challenges and first results

Results from the first Sun-to-Earth coupled numerical model developed at the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling are presented. The model simulates physical processes occurring in space spanning from the corona of the Sun to the Earth's ionosphere, and it represents the first step toward creating a physics-based numerical tool for predicting space weather conditions in the near-Earth environment. Two 6- to 7-d intervals, representing different heliospheric conditions in terms of the three-dimensional configuration of the heliospheric current sheet, are chosen for simulations. These conditions lead to drastically different responses of the simulated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, emphasizing, on the one hand, challenges one encounters in building such forecasting tools, and on the other hand, emphasizing successes that can already be achieved even at this initial stage of Sun-to-Earth modeling.

A kinematically distorted flux rope model for magnetic clouds

Constant-α force-free magnetic flux rope models have proven to be a valuable first step toward understanding the global context of in situ observations of magnetic clouds. However, cylindrical symmetry is necessarily assumed when using such models, and it is apparent from both observations and modeling that magnetic clouds have highly noncircular cross sections. A number of approaches have been adopted to relax the circular cross section approximation: frequently, the cross-sectional shape is allowed to take an arbitrarily chosen shape (usually elliptical), increasing the number of free parameters that are fit between data and model. While a better “fit” may be achieved in terms of reducing the mean square error between the model and observed magnetic field time series, it is not always clear that this translates to a more accurate reconstruction of the global structure of the magnetic cloud. We develop a new, noncircular cross section flux rope model that is constrained by observations of CMEs/ICMEs and knowledge of the physical processes acting on the magnetic cloud: The magnetic cloud is assumed to initially take the form of a force-free flux rope in the low corona but to be subsequently deformed by a combination of axis-centered self-expansion and heliocentric radial expansion. The resulting analytical solution is validated by fitting to artificial time series produced by numerical MHD simulations of magnetic clouds and shown to accurately reproduce the global structure.

An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

The development of a new dust uplift scheme in the Met Office Unified Model

Aeolian mineral dust aerosol is an important consideration in the Earth's radiation budget as well as a source of nutrients to oceanic and land biota. The modelling of aeolian mineral dust has been improving consistently despite the relatively sparse observations to constrain them. This study documents the development of a new dust emissions scheme in the Met Office Unified ModelTM (MetUM) based on the Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) module. Four separate case studies are used to test and constrain the model output. Initial testing was undertaken on a large dust event over North Africa in March 2006 with the model constrained using AERONET data. The second case study involved testing the capability of the model to represent dust events in the Middle East without being re-tuned from the March 2006 case in the Sahara. While the model is unable to capture some of the daytime variation in AERONET AOD there is good agreement between the model and observed dust events. In the final two case studies new observations from in situ aircraft data during the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) campaigns in February and August 2006 were used. These recent observations provided further data on dust size distributions and vertical profiles to constrain the model. The modelled DODO cases were also compared to AERONET data to make sure the radiative properties of the dust were comparable to observations. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright

Global climate and ocean circulation on an aquaplanet ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

A low resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model OAGCM is used to study the characteristics of the large scale ocean circulation and its climatic impacts in a series of global coupled aquaplanet experiments. Three configurations, designed to produce fundamentally different ocean circulation regimes, are considered. The first has no obstruction to zonal flow, the second contains a low barrier that blocks zonal flow in the ocean at all latitudes, creating a single enclosed basin, whilst the third contains a gap in the barrier to allow circumglobal flow at high southern latitudes. Warm greenhouse climates with a global average air surface temperature of around 27C result in all cases. Equator to pole temperature gradients are shallower than that of a current climate simulation. Whilst changes in the land configuration cause regional changes in temperature, winds and rainfall, heat transports within the system are little affected. Inhibition of all ocean transport on the aquaplanet leads to a reduction in global mean surface temperature of 8C, along with a sharpening of the meridional temperature gradient. This results from a reduction in global atmospheric water vapour content and an increase in tropical albedo, both of which act to reduce global surface temperatures. Fitting a simple radiative model to the atmospheric characteristics of the OAGCM solutions suggests that a simpler atmosphere model, with radiative parameters chosen a priori based on the changing surface configuration, would have produced qualitatively different results. This implies that studies with reduced complexity atmospheres need to be guided by more complex OAGCM results on a case by case basis.

Key features of the IPSL ocean atmosphere model and its sensitivity to atmospheric resolution

This paper presents the major characteristics of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. The model components and the coupling methodology are described, as well as the main characteristics of the climatology and interannual variability. The model results of the standard version used for IPCC climate projections, and for intercomparison projects like the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP 2) are compared to those with a higher resolution in the atmosphere. A focus on the North Atlantic and on the tropics is used to address the impact of the atmosphere resolution on processes and feedbacks. In the North Atlantic, the resolution change leads to an improved representation of the storm-tracks and the North Atlantic oscillation. The better representation of the wind structure increases the northward salt transports, the deep-water formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In the tropics, the ocean–atmosphere dynamical coupling, or Bjerknes feedback, improves with the resolution. The amplitude of ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) consequently increases, as the damping processes are left unchanged.

ENSO at 6ka and 21ka from ocean–atmosphere coupled model simulations

We analyze how the characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are changed in coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) performed as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2). Comparison of the model results with present day observations show that most of the models reproduce the large scale features of the tropical Pacific like the SST gradient, the mean SST and the mean seasonal cycles. All models simulate the ENSO variability, although with different skill. Our analyses show that several relationships between El Niño amplitude and the mean state across the different control simulations are still valid for simulations of the MH and the LGM. Results for the MH show a consistent El Niño amplitude decrease. It can be related to the large scale atmospheric circulation changes. While the Northern Hemisphere receives more insolation during the summer time, the Asian summer monsoon system is strengthened which leads to the enhancement of the Walker circulation. Easterlies prevailing over the central eastern Pacific induce an equatorial upwelling that damps the El Niño development. Results are less conclusive for 21ka. Large scale dynamic competes with changes in local heat fluxes, so that model shows a wide range of responses, as it is the case in future climate projections.