Using theory of change to achieve impact in AAS

The CGIAR Strategy and Results Framework sets out four system level outcomes (SLOs), namely: reducing rural poverty, improving food security, improving nutrition and health and sustainable management of natural resources. In pursuit of these objectives the CGIAR has developed a set of sixteen CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs), each of which is expected to make specific contributions to a range of intermediate development outcomes (IDOs) linked to the SLOs. As part of this work the CRPs are developing impact pathways and theories of change designed to explain how the programs will achieve IDOs. The purpose of the present paper is to explain the approach that the CRP on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is taking to using these programmatic tools to help achieve impact.

Prediction of sound emission from open turbulent premixed flames

The sound emission from open turbulent flames is dictated by the two-point spatial correlation of rate of change of fluctuating heat release rate and this correlation has not been investigated directly in the past studies. Turbulent premixed flame data from DNS and laser diagnostics are analyzed to study this correlation function and the two-point spatial correlation of the fluctuating heat release rate. This shows that the correlation functions have simple Gaussian forms whose integral length scale is related to the laminar flame thickness and amplitude depends on the spatial distribution of the time-mean rate of heat release. These results and RANS-CFD solution of open turbulent premixed flames are post-processed to obtain the far field SPL, which agrees well with measured values. © 2010 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

Sea surface temperature and the subsequent freshwater survival rate of some salmon stocks: a surprising link between the climate of land and sea

Previous consideration of the relationship between climate and the survival rate of Pacific salmon eggs and fry has been confined to effects of large variation in the ambient freshwater environment; e.g., stream discharge, temperature, turbidity. This analysis shows sea surface temperatures during the last year of life of maturing adult salmon are also strongly associated with the subsequent survival rate of salmon eggs and fry is fresh water, presumably through development of the future eggs or sperm. In several stocks of three species of North American salmon, the association between the "marine" climate and egg survival is stronger than, or additive to, any estimated climatic association in fresh water. This apparent and surprising link between fresh water and the distant ocean has some interesting and complex implications for management of future salmon production.

Estimating the emigration rate of fish stocks from marine sanctuaries using tag-recovery data

A critical process in assessing the impact of marine sanctuaries on fish stocks is the movement of fish out into surrounding fished areas. A method is presented for estimating the yearly rate of emigration of animals from a protected (“no-take”) zone. Movement rates for exploited populations are usually inferred from tag-recovery studies, where tagged individuals are released into the sea at known locations and their location of recapture is reported by fishermen. There are three drawbacks, however, with this method of estimating movement rates: 1) if animals are tagged and released into both protected and fished areas, movement rates will be overestimated if the prohibition on recapturing tagged fish later from within the protected area is not made explicit; 2) the times of recapture are random; and 3) an unknown proportion of tagged animals are recaptured but not reported back to researchers. An estimation method is proposed which addresses these three drawbacks of tag-recovery data. An analytic formula and an associated double-hypergeometric likelihood method were derived. These two estimators of emigration rate were applied to tag recoveries from southern rock lobsters (Jasus edwardsii) released into a sanctuary and into its surrounding fished area in South Australia.

Do fluctuations in the somatic growth rate of rock lobster (Jasus lalandii) encompass all size classes? A re-assessment of juvenile growth

Catch rates in the South African rock lobster (Jasus lalandii) fishery declined after 1989 in response to reduced adult somatic growth rates and a consequent reduction in recruitment to the fishable population. Although spatial and temporal trends in adult growth are well described, little is known about how juvenile growth rates have been affected. In our study, growth rates of juvenile rock lobster on Cape Town harbor wall were compared with those recorded at the same site more than 25 years prior to our study, and with those on a nearby natural nursery reef. We found that indices of somatic growth measured during 1996–97 at the harbor wall had declined significantly since 1971–72. Furthermore, growth was slower among juvenile J. lalandii at the harbor wall than those at the natural nursery reef. These results suggest that growth rates of juvenile and adult J. lalandii exhibit similar types of spatiotemporal patterns. Thus, the recent coastwide decline in adult somatic growth rates might also encompass smaller size classes.

Acute effect of sumithion on certain blood parameters and mortality rate of fish, Heteropneustes fossilis (Bloch)

The acute toxic effect of the toxicant sumithion (50% E.C.) on mortality rate (after 24, 48, 72, and 96 h), total RBC count and haemoglobin content (after 48 and 72 h) on Heteropneustes fossilis was investigated at four concentrations (9.7, 10.7 and 11.1 ppm). The sumithion treated fishes showed lower RBC and Hb levels than the untreated ones. A gradual decrease in the total RBC counts and Hb contents was recorded with increasing concentration of toxicant after 72 h but the blood showed fluctuating values after 48 h of treatment.

On the naturalness of change in marine populations

Based on a talk given before a meeting of the Society of Fisheries Technologists, India.