A Gestão dos Recursos Hídricos Transfronteiriços: um desafio para a cooperação regional na África Ocidental – o caso da OMVS

A redução flagrante da disponibilidade hídrica no mundo, resultante de fenómenos naturais e antropogénicos, tem provocado intensos debates nos últimos anos, em torno da importância da água como instrumento de cooperação e conflito entre os países. Este recurso pela sua característica transversal representa um desafio constante e cada vez maior à soberania dos Estados e à forma como estes lidam com o actual cenário de escassez. Este trabalho elegeu como objecto de estudo a região da África Ocidental, onde é possível identificar vários factores que contribuem para o cenário de conflito como as alterações climáticas, forte crescimento demográfico, escassez hídrica crónica e grande interdependência dos países no que toca à partilha de recursos hídricos. Contudo, os esforços de cooperação levados a cabo têm sido notáveis, principalmente pelas organizações responsáveis pela gestão dos rios transfronteiriços da região. No final, a análise do desempenho da Organização da Bacia do Rio Senegal (OMVS), permitiu-nos concluir que a capacidade institucional é vital para a gestão integrada dos recursos hídricos e prevenção de conflitos nesta região.

Why ethnic fractionalization? Polarization, ethnic conflict and growth

This paper ia an attempt to clarify the relationship between fractionalization,polarization and conflict. The literature on the measurement of ethnic diversityhas taken as given that the proper measure for heterogeneity can be calculatedby using the fractionalization index. This index is widely used in industrialeconomics and, for empirical purposes, the ethnolinguistic fragmentation isready available for regression exercises. Nevertheless the adequacy of asynthetic index of hetergeneity depends on the intrinsic characteristicsof the heterogeneous dimension to be measured. In the case of ethnicdiversity there is a very strong conflictive dimension. For this reasonwe argue that the measure of heterogeneity should be one of the class ofpolarization measures. In fact the intuition of the relationship betweenconflict and fractionalization do not hold for more than two groups. Incontrast with the usual problem of polarization indices, which are ofdifficult empirical implementation without making some arbitrary choiceof parameters, we show that the RQ index, proposed by Reynal-Querol (2002),is the only discrete polarization measure that satisfies the basic propertiesof polarization. Additionally we present a derivation of the RQ index froma simple rent seeking model. In the empirical section we show that whileethnic polarization has a positive effect on civil wars and, indirectly ongrowth, this effect is not present when we use ethnic fractionalization.

Gangues, Novíssimas Guerras e (Sub)Cultura da Violência/Delinquência

This paper aims to reflect the problem of gangs and their relationship with urban space in the urban wars scenery that emerged in the 1980s and 1990s in densely populated cities, as well as discuss the adequacy of explanations on the phenomenon of violence and delinquency, in some contexts, from the concept of subculture. Starts with the conceptualization and characterization of gangs, presenting them as one of the central figures in the new type of violent conflict that erupts in the urban centers around the world and relate their institutionalization in neighbourhood with the idea of ‘Retreat of the State’ in poorest urban zones, as well as presenting the position of some families in relation to their activities.

The aftermath of Civil War

Using an event-study methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. It conducts this analysis both in absolute and relative terms, the latter in relation to control groups of otherwise similar countries. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved.

The colonial origins of Civil War

The dominant hypothesis in the literature that studies conflict is that poverty is the main cause of civil wars. We instead analyze the effect of institutions on civil war, controlling for income per capita. In our set up, institutions are endogenous and colonial origins affect civil wars through their legacy on institutions. Our results indicate that institutions, proxied by the protection of property rights, rule of law and the efficiency of the legal system, are a fundamental cause of civil war. In particular, an improvement in institutions from the median value in the sample to the 75th percentile is associated with a 38 percentage points reduction in the incidence of civil wars. Moreover, once institutions are included as explaining civil wars, income does not have any effect on civil war, either directly or indirectly.

Protective or counter-productive? Labor market institutions and the effect of immigration on EU natives

We estimate the effect of immigrant flows on native employment in WesternEurope, and then ask whether the employment consequences of immigrationvary with institutions that affect labor market flexibility. Reducedflexibility may protect natives from immigrant competition in the nearterm, but our theoretical framework suggests that reduced flexibility islikely to increase the negative impact of immigration on equilibriumemployment. In models without interactions, OLS estimates for a panel ofEuropean countries in the 1980s and 1990s show small, mostly negativeimmigration effects. To reduce bias from the possible endogeneity ofimmigration flows, we use the fact that many immigrants arriving after1991 were refugees from the Balkan wars. An IV strategy based onvariation in the number of immigrants from former Yugoslavia generateslarger though mostly insignificant negative estimates. We then estimatemodels allowing interactions between the employment response toimmigration and institutional characteristics including business entrycosts. These results, limited to the sample of native men, generallysuggest that reduced flexibility increases the negative impact ofimmigration. Many of the estimated interaction terms are significant,and imply a significant negative effect on employment in countrieswith restrictive institutions.

The three horsemen of riches: Plague, war and urbanization in early modern Europe

How did Europe escape the "Iron Law of Wages?" We construct a simple Malthusian model withtwo sectors and multiple steady states, and use it to explain why European per capita incomes andurbanization rates increased during the period 1350-1700. Productivity growth can only explain a smallfraction of the rise in output per capita. Population dynamics changes of the birth and death schedules were far more important determinants of steady states. We show how a major shock to population cantrigger a transition to a new steady state with higher per-capita income. The Black Death was such ashock, raising wages substantially. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, andurban centers grew in size. European cities were unhealthy, and rising urbanization pushed up aggregatedeath rates. This effect was reinforced by diseases spread through war, financed by higher tax revenues.In addition, rising trade also spread diseases. In this way higher wages themselves reduced populationpressure. We show in a calibration exercise that our model can account for the sustained rise in Europeanurbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes in 1700, without technological change.Wars contributed importantly to the "Rise of Europe", even if they had negative short-run effects. We thustrace Europe s precocious rise to economic riches to interactions of the plague shock with the belligerentpolitical environment and the nature of cities.

Lessons From the Swiss Medical Board Recommendation Against Mammography Screening Programs

When the US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) in 2009 recommended against universal breast cancer screening with mammography in women aged 40 to 49 years, some scientists, radiologists, politicians, and patients strongly objected. The controversy has been called the "mammography wars." The latest chapter in these wars comes from the Swiss Medical Board, which is mandated by the Conference of Health Ministers of the Swiss Cantons, the Swiss Medical Association, and the Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences to conduct health technology assessments. In a February 2014 report, the Swiss Medical Board stated that new systematic mammography screening programs should not be introduced, irrespective of the age of the women, and that existing programs should be discontinued. The board's main argument was that the absolute reduction in breast cancer mortality was low and that the adverse consequences of the screening were substantial. The absolute risk reduction in breast cancer mortality has been estimated by the board at 0.16% for women screened during 6.2 years and followed-up over 13 years, based on the results of a recent Cochrane Review. The adverse consequences include falsepositive test results, overdiagnosis and overtreatment of patients, and high costs, including the expense of follow-up testing and procedures.

Dots i llegats dels Baldrich de Valls (1768-1863)

Aquest article presenta les dificultats que van haver d’afrontar entre 1768 i 1863 els hereus de la casa Baldrich de Valls per liquidar els dots i les deixes testamentàries. Anton Baldrich Janer va nomenar hereu el fill gran del primer matrimoni amb l’obligació de pagar als seus germans i especialment als seus germanastres unes quantitats molt elevades de diners atorgats en un moment de grans expectatives econòmiques, gràcies al comerç amb Amèrica i el nord d’Europa. Durant la primera meitat del segle XIX, alguns anys de males collites, les contínues guerres i la independència de les colònies americanes feren minvar els recursos i van afeblir la hisenda familiar. Els successius hereus maldaven per pagar les contínues reclamacions dels cabalers i les cabaleres de les diferents generacions, fet que els impedia invertir en noves empreses per tal d’ampliar i modernitzar els seus negocis. L’any 1863, el darrer hereu Baldrich va morir sense descendència, havent pagat els darrers deutes familiars però sense haver creat nous horitzons per als seus successors.

War and National Renewal: Civil Religion and Blood Sacrifice in American Culture

Wars are often associated with a rhetoric of renewal or new beginnings. This essay explores this claim through the lens of civil religion and a recent book by Carolyn Marvin and David Ingle, Blood Sacrifice and the Nation, which combines Emile Durkheim with Réné Girard in proposing that modern national cohesion depends on blood sacrifice. I unpack some of the paradoxes raised by this theory of national renewal in the context of 9/11, with a special focus on the sacred status of the flag and the special attention given to uniformed serviceman in the American body politic.

'Making Science Understandable'. Divulgació científica i mediació editorial: el cas de The Wisdom of the Body de Walter B. Cannon (1871-1945)

The present paper aims at an historical reconstruction, in the framework of the publishing industry in the years between the two World Wars, of the role played by the publisher William W. Norton in the genesis, published in 1932, and new edition in 1938, of Walter B. Cannon"s book The Wisdom of the Body. With the analysis of this case study, we aimed at contributing to the current criticism of the «dominant view», which tries, in an uncritical manner, that scientific popularization follows an ineluctable, continuous and linear evolution.

Cinema and the Work of Doré

According to Ray Harryhausen, a special effects expert in the film industry, "Gustave Doré would have made a great director of photography . . . He saw things from the point of view of the camera." Doré's work has had a permanent impact on the imaginative realm of film since its very early days. In return, the silver screen has etched Doré into the 20th century imagination. Almost every film about the Bible since The Life and Passion of Jesus Christ produced by Pathé in 1902 refers to his illustrations, and every film adaptation of Dante or Don Quixote has used him as a model, from Georg Wilhelm Pabst and Orson Welles to Terry Gilliam. All films dealing with life in London in the Victorian era by directors ranging from David Lean, to Roman Polanski and Tim Burton draw on the visions in London: a pilgrimage for their sets. A large number of dream fantastical or phantasmagorical scenes take their inspiration from Doré's graphic world, beginning with Georges Méliès' A Trip to the Moon in 1902. In the realm of cartoons and animation, Walt Disney owes a huge debt to Doré. Doré primal forests, from Atala in particular, were also used in the various versions of King Kong from 1933 to the 2005 film by Peter Jackson, who had already drawn on Doré for The Lord of the Rings. Jean Cocteau was also indebted to the illustrations for Perrault's Fairy Tales for his Beauty and the Beast (1945), as was George Lucas for the character Chewbacca in Star Wars (1977) and even the Harry Potter film series. Through his influence on film history, Doré shaped the mass culture imagination.

Teories de l’imperialisme. Un estat de la qüestió

El propòsit d’aquest treball és presentar i discutir les diferents teories sobre l’anomenat «imperialisme modern», delimitat cronològicament des de finals del segle XIX fins a l’inici de la Primera Guerra Mundial. A més a més, és també l’objectiu d’aquest article mostrar l’evolució de la discussió presentant aquestes teories en ordre cronològic i insistint en com els conceptes «imperialisme» i «colonialisme» han canviat de significat. Les teories marxistes i liberals de principis del segle XX consideraven l’imperialisme un procés fonamentalment econòmic mentre que la teoria sociològica de Schumpeter el veia com un atavisme. Algunes teories després de les guerres mundials han insistit en la importància de parar atenció en els territoris colonitzats i en com la seva relació amb Europa ha afectat la nova forma imperial. Les explicacions més recents n’han destacat aspectes molt diferents, des de la importància sobre com ha permès l’expansió del lliure-comerç fins a l’imperialisme com una perversió del nacionalisme.