When to Quit Under Uncertainty? A real options approach to smoking cessation

This paper models the decision to quit smoking like an investment decision where the quitter incurs a sunk withdrawal cost today and forgoes their consumer surplus from cigarettes (invests) and hopes to reap an uncertain reward of better health and therefore higher utility in the future (return). We show that a risk-averse mature smoker who expects to benefit from quitting may still rationally choose to delay quitting until they are more confident that quitting is the right decision for them. Such a decision by the smoker is due to the value associated with keeping their option of whether or not to quit open as they learn more about the damage that smoking will have on their future utility. Policies which reduce a smoker’s uncertainty about the damage that smoking with have on their future utility is likely to make them quit earlier.

Auditoria ambiental de l'edifici de l'Àrea de Territori, Medi Ambient, Paisatge i Espai Urbà de l'Ajuntament de Sitges

Aquest projecte realitza una auditoria ambiental de l’edifici de l’Àrea de Territori, Medi Ambient, Paisatge i Espai Urbà de l’Ajuntament de Sitges, com a primer pas per a la implantació d’un sistema de gestió ambiental (SGA), en acord amb el Reglament (CE) nº 761/2001, i la posterior obtenció d’un certificat de gestió i auditories ambientals (EMAS). L’auditoria s’inicia amb la identificació dels aspectes ambientals de l’edifici, mitjançant la recopilació de dades sobre consums energètics i hídrics, la estimació de la generació de residus i enquestes de mobilitat als treballadors. Aquestes dades són utilitzades per determinar els aspectes ambientals significatius i posteriorment, exposar una sèrie de propostes de millora per tal de corregir-los o minimitzar-los, com ara sistemes d’estalvi d’aigua, d’enllumenat, de producció d’electricitat i l’educació ambiental dels treballadors. Per a la implantació d’un SGA en la situació actual de l’edifici, es necessària, entre altres coses, la implantació d’un sistema de registre que arxivi els consums d’aigua, energia i generació de residus, per tal de dur un control de les despeses de cadascun dels vectors. A més, caldrà implementar un Programa de bones pràctiques ambientals en l’oficina per tal de reduir el consum elèctric, d’aigua i generació de residus, i la seva classificació per part dels treballadors.

Decision making in a human population living sustainably

The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000-8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision-making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long-term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision-making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes.

Information systems for water resources management improvement in developing countries

Water resources management, as also water service provision projects in developing countries have difficulties to take adequate decisions due to scarce reliable information, and a lack of proper information managing. Some appropriate tools need to be developed in order to improve decision making to improve water management and access of the poorest, through the design of Decision Support Systems (DSS). On the one side, a DSS for developing co-operation projects on water access improvement has been developed. Such a tool has specific context constrains (structure of the system, software requirements) and needs (Logical Framework Approach monitoring, organizational-learning, accountability and evaluation) that shall be considered for its design. Key aspects for its successful implementation have appeared to be a participatory design of the system and support of the managerial positions at the inception phase. A case study in Tanzania was conducted, together with the Spanish NGO ONGAWA – Ingeniería para el Desarrollo. On the other side, DSS are required also to improve decision making on water management resources in order to achieve a sustainable development that not only improves the living conditions of the population in developing countries, but that also does not hinder opportunities of the poorest on those context. A DSS made to fulfil these requirements shall be using information from water resources modelling, as also on the environment and the social context. Through the research, a case study has been conducted in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, an endhorreic basin 160 km south of Addis Ababa. There, water has been modelled using ArcSWAT, a physically based model which can assess the impact of land management practices on large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. Moreover, governance on water and environment as also the socioeconomic context have been studied.

Aplicación para la situación geográfica del observador mediante posicionamiento astronómico

Proyecto en el que se realiza una aplicación informática, tanto para escritorio de Windows como para Windows Mobile, que permite la orientación y posicionamiento terrestre del usuario mediante el uso de la astronomía. Todo el proyecto se ha realizado haciendo uso de las tecnologías ofrecidas por Microsoft .NET Framework.

PFC : Analitzador de models UML

Aquest projecte descriu la construcció d'una aplicació encarregada de realitzar l'anàlisis d'un model UML. Està encabit dins el marc d'un aplicatiu de gestió de models en un repositori centralitzat de la àrea de Tècniques Avançades d'Enginyeria de Programari de la carrera d'Enginyeria Informàtica de la UOC.

Hepatitis C - Quick reference guide for primary care

This factsheet provides information in the form of FAQs in relation to hepatitis C: the condition, risks, testing, treatment and management.

Automatic low baseline stereo in urban areas

In this work we propose a new automatic methodology for computing accurate digital elevation models (DEMs) in urban environments from low baseline stereo pairs that shall be available in the future from a new kind of earth observation satellite. This setting makes both views of the scene similarly, thus avoiding occlusions and illumination changes, which are the main disadvantages of the commonly accepted large-baseline configuration. There still remain two crucial technological challenges: (i) precisely estimating DEMs with strong discontinuities and (ii) providing a statistically proven result, automatically. The first one is solved here by a piecewise affine representation that is well adapted to man-made landscapes, whereas the application of computational Gestalt theory introduces reliability and automation. In fact this theory allows us to reduce the number of parameters to be adjusted, and tocontrol the number of false detections. This leads to the selection of a suitable segmentation into affine regions (whenever possible) by a novel and completely automatic perceptual grouping method. It also allows us to discriminate e.g. vegetation-dominated regions, where such an affine model does not apply anda more classical correlation technique should be preferred. In addition we propose here an extension of the classical ”quantized” Gestalt theory to continuous measurements, thus combining its reliability with the precision of variational robust estimation and fine interpolation methods that are necessary in the low baseline case. Such an extension is very general and will be useful for many other applications as well.

The politics of contaminated sites management : institutional regime change and actor's mode of participation in the environmental management of the Bonfol Chemical Waste Landfill in Switzerland

By the end of the 1970s, contaminated sites had emerged as one of the most complex and urgent environmental issues affecting industrialized countries. The authors show that small and prosperous Switzerland is no exception to the pervasive problem of sites contamination, the legacy of past practices in waste management having left some 38,000 contaminated sites throughout the country. This book outlines the problem, offering evidence that open and polycentric environmental decision-making that includes civil society actors is valuable. They propose an understanding of environmental management of contaminated sites as a political process in which institutions frame interactions between strategic actors pursuing sometimes conflicting interests. In the opening chapter, the authors describe the influences of politics and the power relationships between actors involved in decision-making in contaminated sites management, which they term a "wicked problem." Chapter Two offers a theoretical framework for understanding institutions and the environmental management of contaminated sites. The next five chapters present a detailed case study on environmental management and contaminated sites in Switzerland, focused on the Bonfol Chemical Landfill. The study and analysis covers the establishment of the landfill under the first generation of environmental regulations, its closure and early remediation efforts, and the gambling on the remediation objectives, methods and funding in the first decade of the 21st Century. The concluding chapter discusses the question of whether the strength of environmental regulations, and the type of interactions between public, private, and civil society actors can explain the environmental choices in contaminated sites management. Drawing lessons from research, the authors debate the value of institutional flexibility for dealing with environmental issues such as contaminated sites.

Indicadores morfométricos em cabeças de espécies brasileiras de Chrysoperla (Neuroptera, Chrysopidae)

As espécies do gênero Chrysoperla que ocorrem no Brasil -C. externa (Hagen, 1861), C. defreitasi (Brooks, 1994), C. raimundoi (Freitas & Penny, 2001) e C. genanigra (Freitas, 2003)-, que apresentam as principais diferenças nas genitálias, foram estudadas morfometricamente através das distâncias entre pontos da cabeça (oito medidas lineares) a fim de melhor identificá-las. Os resultados, analisados através da estatística multivariada, mostraram que é possível se identificarem medidas que as distinguem individualmente, muito embora algumas espécies sejam mais distinguíves através da morfometria. A análise canônica mostrou que três das quatro espécies, C. raimundoi; C. genanigra e C. externa, não apresentaram grandes sobreposições entre si, sendo possível sua discriminação dentro do grupo, somente C. defreitasi apresentou uma baixa resolução de acordo com esta análise, ficando sobreposta com C. externa e C. genanigra, no entanto, ela é totalmente discriminada de C. raimundoi. As medidas que mais contribuíram para a diferenciação estão relacionadas ao tamanho da cabeça e em especial ao comprimento do labro, na extremidade da cabeça, até o nível dos olhos e antena.

Inflation and output dynamics with firm-owned capital

We model firm-owned capital in a stochastic dynamic New-Keynesian generalequilibrium model à la Calvo. We find that this structure impliesequilibrium dynamics which are quantitatively di¤erent from the onesassociated with a benchmark case where households accumulate capital andrent it to firms. Our findings therefore stress the importance ofmodeling an investment decision at the firm level in addition to ameaningful price setting decision. Along the way we argue that the problemof modeling firm-owned capital with Calvo price-setting has not been solvedin a correct way in the previous literature.

Multinationals, technology networks and international takeovers

We formulate a knowlegde--based model of direct investment through mergers and acquisitions. M&As are realized to create comparative advantages by exploiting international synergies and appropriating local technology spillovers requiring geographical proximity, but can also represent a strategic response to the presence of a multinational rival. The takeover fee paid tends to increase with the strength of local spillovers which can thus work against multinationalization. Seller's bargaining power increases the takeover fee, but does not influence the investment decision. We characterize losers and winners from multinationalization, and show that foreign investment stimulates research but could result in a synergy trap reducing multinationals' profits.

B2B Integration in Global Supply Chains: An Identification of Technical Integration Scenarios

The competitiveness of businesses is increasingly dependent on their electronic networks with customers, suppliers, and partners. While the strategic and operational impact of external integration and IOS adoption has been extensively studied, much less attention has been paid to the organizational and technical design of electronic relationships. The objective of our longitudinal research project is the development of a framework for understanding and explaining B2B integration. Drawing on existing literature and empirical cases we present a reference model (a classification scheme for B2B Integration). The reference model comprises technical, organizational, and institutional levels to reflect the multiple facets of B2B integration. In this paper we onvestigate the current state of electronic collaboration in global supply chains focussing on the technical view. Using an indepth case analysis we identify five integration scenarios. In the subsequent confirmatory phase of the research we analyse 112 real-world company cases to validate these five integration scenarios. Our research advances and deepens existing studies by developing a B2B reference model, which reflects the current state of practice and is independent of specific implementation technologies. In the next stage of the research the emerging reference model will be extended to create an assessment model for analysing the maturity level of a given company in a specific supply chain.

Pretherapeutic gamma-glutamyltransferase is an independent prognostic factor for patients with renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) regulates apoptotic balance and promotes cancer progression and invasion. Higher pretherapeutic GGT serum levels have been associated with worse outcomes in various malignancies, but there are no data for renal cell carcinoma (RCC). METHODS: Pretherapeutic GGT serum levels and clinicopathological parameters were retrospectively evaluated in 921 consecutive RCC patients treated with nephrectomy at a single institution between 1998 and 2013. Gamma-glutamyltransferase was analysed as continuous and categorical variable. Associations with RCC-specific survival were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models. Discrimination was measured with the C-index. Decision-curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical net benefit. The median postoperative follow-up was 45 months. RESULTS: Median pretherapeutic serum GGT level was 25 U l(-1). Gamma-glutamyltransferase levels increased with advancing T (P<0.001), N (P=0.006) and M stages (P<0.001), higher grades (P<0.001), and presence of tumour necrosis (P<0.001). An increase of GGT by 10 U l(-1) was associated with an increase in the risk of death from RCC by 4% (HR 1.04, P<0.001). Based on recursive partitioning-based survival tree analysis, we defined four prognostic categories of GGT: normal low (<17.5 U l(-1)), normal high (17.5 to <34.5 U l(-1)), elevated (34.5 to <181.5 U l(-1)), and highly elevated (⩾181.5 U l(-1)). In multivariable analyses that adjusted for the effect of standard features, both continuously and categorically coded GGT were independent prognostic factors. Adding GGT to a model that included standard features increased the discrimination by 0.9% to 1.8% and improved the clinical net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Pretherapeutic serum GGT is a novel and independent prognostic factor for patients with RCC. Stratifying patients into prognostic subgroups according to GGT may be used for patient counselling, tailoring surveillance, individualised treatment planning, and clinical trial design.

Long-term C-CO2 emissions and carbon crop residue mineralization in an oxisol under different tillage and crop rotation systems

Soil C-CO2 emissions are sensitive indicators of management system impacts on soil organic matter (SOM). The main soil C-CO2 sources at the soil-plant interface are the decomposition of crop residues, SOM turnover, and respiration of roots and soil biota. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the impacts of tillage and cropping systems on long-term soil C-CO2 emissions and their relationship with carbon (C) mineralization of crop residues. A long-term experiment was conducted in a Red Oxisol in Cruz Alta, RS, Brazil, with subtropical climate Cfa (Köppen classification), mean annual precipitation of 1,774 mm and mean annual temperature of 19.2 ºC. Treatments consisted of two tillage systems: (a) conventional tillage (CT) and (b) no tillage (NT) in combination with three cropping systems: (a) R0- monoculture system (soybean/wheat), (b) R1- winter crop rotation (soybean/wheat/soybean/black oat), and (c) R2- intensive crop rotation (soybean/ black oat/soybean/black oat + common vetch/maize/oilseed radish/wheat). The soil C-CO2 efflux was measured every 14 days for two years (48 measurements), by trapping the CO2 in an alkaline solution. The soil gravimetric moisture in the 0-0.05 m layer was determined concomitantly with the C-CO2 efflux measurements. The crop residue C mineralization was evaluated with the mesh-bag method, with sampling 14, 28, 56, 84, 112, and 140 days after the beginning of the evaluation period for C measurements. Four C conservation indexes were used to assess the relation between C-CO2 efflux and soil C stock and its compartments. The crop residue C mineralization fit an exponential model in time. For black oat, wheat and maize residues, C mineralization was higher in CT than NT, while for soybean it was similar. Soil moisture was higher in NT than CT, mainly in the second year of evaluation. There was no difference in tillage systems for annual average C-CO2 emissions, but in some individual evaluations, differences between tillage systems were noticed for C-CO2 evolution. Soil C-CO2 effluxes followed a bi-modal pattern, with peaks in October/November and February/March. The highest emission was recorded in the summer and the lowest in the winter. The C-CO2 effluxes were weakly correlated to air temperature and not correlated to soil moisture. Based on the soil C conservation indexes investigated, NT associated to intensive crop rotation was more C conserving than CT with monoculture.