Echocardiographic Predictors of Worse Outcome After Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Abstract Background: Cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is the recommended treatment by leading global guidelines. However, 30%-40% of selected patients are non-responders. Objective: To develop an echocardiographic model to predict cardiac death or transplantation (Tx) 1 year after CRT. Method: Observational, prospective study, with the inclusion of 116 patients, aged 64.89 ± 11.18 years, 69.8% male, 68,1% in NYHA FC III and 31,9% in FC IV, 71.55% with left bundle-branch block, and median ejection fraction (EF) of 29%. Evaluations were made in the pre‑implantation period and 6-12 months after that, and correlated with cardiac mortality/Tx at the end of follow-up. Cox and logistic regression analyses were performed with ROC and Kaplan-Meier curves. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. Results: There were 29 (25%) deaths/Tx during follow-up of 34.09 ± 17.9 months. Cardiac mortality/Tx was 16.3%. In the multivariate Cox model, EF < 30%, grade III/IV diastolic dysfunction and grade III mitral regurgitation at 6‑12 months were independently related to increased cardiac mortality or Tx, with hazard ratios of 3.1, 4.63 and 7.11, respectively. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78. Conclusion: EF lower than 30%, severe diastolic dysfunction and severe mitral regurgitation indicate poor prognosis 1 year after CRT. The combination of two of those variables indicate the need for other treatment options.

Predictors of Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence in Hyperthyroid and Euthyroid Patients

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in adults, and is encountered in 10-15% of the patients with hyperthyroidism. Unless euthyroidism is restored, pharmacological or electrical cardioversion is controversial in patients with AF who remain hyperthyroid. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy of electrical cardioversion and predictors of AF recurrence in hyperthyroid and euthyroid patients. Methods: The study included 33 hyperthyroid (21 males) and 48 euthyroid (17 males) patients with persistent AF. The patients were sedated with intravenous midazolam before undergoing electrical cardioversion delivered by synchronized biphasic shocks. Rates of AF recurrence were recorded. Results: Mean follow-up was 23.63 ± 3.74 months in the hyperthyroid group and 22.78 ± 3.15 months in the euthyroid group (p = 0.51). AF recurred in 14 (43.8%) and 21 (44.7%) patients in each group, respectively (p = 0.93). Multivariate regression analysis in each group showed that AF duration was the only predictor of AF recurrence, with odds ratios of 1.38 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.05 - 1.82, p = 0.02) in the hyperthyroid group and 1.42 (95% CI = 1.05 - 1.91, p= 0.02) in the euthyroid group. Conclusion: Rates of long-term AF recurrence were similar in successfully cardioverted hyperthyroid and euthyroid patients. The only predictor of AF recurrence in both groups was AF duration.

Prognostic Value of Pulmonary Vascular Resistance by Magnetic Resonance in Systolic Heart Failure

Abstract Background: Pulmonary hypertension is associated with poor prognosis in heart failure. However, non-invasive diagnosis is still challenging in clinical practice. Objective: We sought to assess the prognostic utility of non-invasive estimation of pulmonary vascular resistances (PVR) by cardiovascular magnetic resonance to predict adverse cardiovascular outcomes in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: Prospective registry of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 40% and recently admitted for decompensated heart failure during three years. PVRwere calculated based on right ventricular ejection fraction and average velocity of the pulmonary artery estimated during cardiac magnetic resonance. Readmission for heart failure and all-cause mortality were considered as adverse events at follow-up. Results: 105 patients (average LVEF 26.0 ±7.7%, ischemic etiology 43%) were included. Patients with adverse events at long-term follow-up had higher values of PVR (6.93 ± 1.9 vs. 4.6 ± 1.7estimated Wood Units (eWu), p < 0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, PVR ≥ 5 eWu(cutoff value according to ROC curve) was independently associated with increased risk of adverse events at 9 months follow-up (HR2.98; 95% CI 1.12-7.88; p < 0.03). Conclusions: In patients with HFrEF, the presence of PVR ≥ 5.0 Wu is associated with significantly worse clinical outcome at follow-up. Non-invasive estimation of PVR by cardiac magnetic resonance might be useful for risk stratification in HFrEF, irrespective of etiology, presence of late gadolinium enhancement or LVEF.

Prenatal Representations of Family in Parents and Coparental Interactions as Predictors of Triadic Interactions During Infancy

In this study, we explored the predictive role of family interactions and family representations in mothers and fathers during pregnancy for postnatal motherfatherinfant interactions during the first 2 years after birth. Families (N = 42) were seen at the fifth month of pregnancy and at 3 and 18 months after birth. During pregnancy, parents were asked to play with their baby at the first meeting by using a doll in accordance with the procedure of the prenatal Lausanne Trilogue Play (LTP; A. Corboz-Warnery & E. Fivaz-Depeursinge, 2001; E. Fivaz-Depeursinge, F. Frascarolo-Moutinot, & A. Corboz-Warnery, 2010). Family representations were assessed by administering the Family System Test (T. Gehring, 1998). Marital satisfaction and the history of the couple were assessed through self-reported questionnaires. At 3 and 18 months, family interactions were assessed in the postnatal LTP. Infant temperament was assessed through parent reports. Results show that (a) prenatal interactions and child temperament are the most important predictors of family interactions and (b) paternal representations are predictive of family interactions at 3 months. These results show that observational assessment of nascent family interactions is possible during pregnancy, which would allow early screening of family maladjustment. The findings also highlight the necessity of taking into account paternal representations as a significant variable in the development of family interactions.

Neo/adjuvant chemotherapy does not improve outcome in resected primary synovial sarcoma: a study of the French Sarcoma Group.

BACKGROUND: There are only scarce data about the benefit of adjunctive chemotherapy in patients with localized synovial sarcoma (SS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data from 237 SS patients recorded in the database of the French Sarcoma Group were retrospectively analyzed. The respective impact of radiotherapy, neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and adjuvant chemotherapy on overall survival (OS), local recurrence-free survival (LRFS) and distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) were assessed after adjustment to prognostic factors. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 58 months (range 1-321). Adjuvant, neo-adjuvant chemotherapy and postoperative radiotherapy were administered in 112, 45 and 181 cases, respectively. In all, 59% of patients treated with chemotherapy received an ifosfamide-containing regimen. The 5-year OS, LRFS and DRFS rates were 64.0%, 70% and 57%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, age >35 years old, grade 3 and not-R0 margins were highly significant independent predictors of worse OS. After adjustment to prognostic factors, radiotherapy significantly improved LRFS but not DRFS or OS. Neither neo-adjuvant nor adjuvant chemotherapy had significant impact on OS, LRFS or DRFS. CONCLUSION: As for other high-grade soft-tissue sarcomas, well-planned wide surgical excision with adjuvant radiotherapy remains the cornerstone of treatment for SS. Neo-adjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy should not be delivered outside a clinical trial setting.

Prognostic value of sentinel node biopsy in 327 prospective melanoma patients from a single institution

AIM: To confirm the accuracy of sentinel node biopsy (SNB) procedure and its morbidity, and to investigate predictive factors for SN status and prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between October 1997 and December 2004, 327 consecutive patients in one centre with clinically node-negative primary skin melanoma underwent an SNB by the triple technique, i.e. lymphoscintigraphy, blue-dye and gamma-probe. Multivariate logistic regression analyses as well as the Kaplan-Meier were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent of the patients had at least one metastatic SN, which was significantly associated with Breslow thickness (p<0.001). The success rate of SNB was 99.1% and its morbidity was 7.6%. With a median follow-up of 33 months, the 5-year DFS/DSS were 43%/49% for patients with positive SN and 83.5%/87.4% for patients with negative SN, respectively. The false-negative rate of SNB was 8.6% and sensitivity 91.4%. On multivariate analysis, DFS was significantly worsened by Breslow thickness (RR=5.6, p<0.001), positive SN (RR=5.0, p<0.001) and male sex (RR=2.9, p=0.001). The presence of a metastatic SN (RR=8.4, p<0.001), male sex (RR=6.1, p<0.001), Breslow thickness (RR=3.2, p=0.013) and ulceration (RR=2.6, p=0.015) were significantly associated with a poorer DSS. CONCLUSION: SNB is a reliable procedure with high sensitivity (91.4%) and low morbidity. Breslow thickness was the only statistically significant parameter predictive of SN status. DFS was worsened in decreasing order by Breslow thickness, metastatic SN and male gender. Similarly DSS was significantly worsened by a metastatic SN, male gender, Breslow thickness and ulceration. These data reinforce the SN status as a powerful staging procedure

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting models as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output growth and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Embolization for multicompartmental bleeding in patients in hemodynamically unstable condition: prognostic factors and outcome.

PURPOSE: To determine prognostic factors and evaluate outcomes of transcatheter arterial embolization in severely injured patients in hemodynamically unstable condition with multicompartmental bleeding.¦MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between June 2000 and May 2008, 36 consecutive patients treated with transcatheter arterial embolization for major retroperitoneal bleeding associated with at least one additional source of bleeding were retrospectively reviewed. Mean Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 49.4 ± 15.8. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify parameters associated with failure of embolization, need for additional surgery to control bleeding, and fatal outcome at 30 d.¦RESULTS: Embolization was technically successful in 35 of 36 patients (97.2%) and resulted in immediate and sustained (> 24 h) hemodynamic improvement in 29 (80.5%). Additional hemostatic surgery was necessary after embolization in six patients (16.6%). Fifteen patients (41.6%) died within 30 d. Failure to restore hemodynamic stability was correlated with the rate of administration of packed red blood cells (P = .014), rate of administration of fresh frozen plasma (FFP; P = .031), and systolic blood pressure (SBP) immediately before embolization (P = .002). The need for additional surgery was correlated with FFP administration rate before embolization (P = .0002) and hemodynamic success (P = .003). Death was correlated with Glasgow Coma Scale score at admission (P = .001), ISS (P = .014), New Injury Severity Score (P = .016), number of injured sites (P = .012), SBP before embolization (P = .042), need for vasopressive drugs before embolization (P = .037), and hemodynamic success (P = .0004).¦CONCLUSIONS: In patients in hemodynamically unstable condition, transcatheter arterial embolization effectively controls bleeding and improves hemodynamic stability. Immediate survival is related to hemodynamic condition before embolization, and 30-d mortality is mainly related to associated brain trauma.

UK Macroeconomic Forecasting with Many Predictors: Which Models Forecast Best and When Do They Do So?

Block factor methods offer an attractive approach to forecasting with many predictors. These extract the information in these predictors into factors reflecting different blocks of variables (e.g. a price block, a housing block, a financial block, etc.). However, a forecasting model which simply includes all blocks as predictors risks being over-parameterized. Thus, it is desirable to use a methodology which allows for different parsimonious forecasting models to hold at different points in time. In this paper, we use dynamic model averaging and dynamic model selection to achieve this goal. These methods automatically alter the weights attached to different forecasting model as evidence comes in about which has forecast well in the recent past. In an empirical study involving forecasting output and inflation using 139 UK monthly time series variables, we find that the set of predictors changes substantially over time. Furthermore, our results show that dynamic model averaging and model selection can greatly improve forecast performance relative to traditional forecasting methods.

Predictors of temporary and permanent work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results of the swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. METHODS: A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. RESULTS: Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. CONCLUSIONS: We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

Bayesian forecasting with highly correlated predictors

This paper considers Bayesian variable selection in regressions with a large number of possibly highly correlated macroeconomic predictors. I show that by acknowledging the correlation structure in the predictors can improve forecasts over existing popular Bayesian variable selection algorithms.

Prognostic importance of hyponatremia in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Rapport de synthèse Enjeux et contexte: L'hyponatrémie est un trouble électrolytique fréquent et associé à un pronostic défavorable dans de nombreuses affections card iovascu lai res (1-5), pour lesquelles il est un marqueur de l'activation neurohumorale (6). Sa valeur pronostique chez les patients se présentant avec une emboîie pulmonaire était jusque là inconnue ; elle fait l'objet de la présente étude.Objectifs: Examiner chez les patients hospitalisés pour une embolie pulmonaire, les associations entre hyponatrémie et mortalité ainsi qu'avec le taux de réhospitalisation. Méthodes: Nous avons étudié les données de 13728 patients avec un diagnostic principal d'embolie pulmonaire provenant de 185 hôpitaux en Pennsylvanie (janvier 2000 à novembre 2002.) Nous avons utilisé un modèle de régression logistique afin d'établir l'association indépendante entre le niveau de sodium lors de la présentation aux urgences et la mortalité ainsi que le taux de ^hospitalisation durant 30 jours. Nous avons ajusté pour les caractéristiques du patient (race, assurance, sévérité de la maladie, usage de la thrombolyse) et de l'hôpital (région, taille, avec ou sans médecins en formation.)Résultats principaux: Une hyponatrémie (sodium £ 135 mmol/l) était présente chez 2907 patients (21.1%). Les patients avec un sodium >135, 130-135, et <130 mmol/l avaient une mortalité cumulée à 30 jours de 8.0%, 13.6%, et 28.5% (P <0.001), et un taux de réadmission de 11.8%, 15.6%, et 19.3% (P <0.001), respectivement. Comparés aux patients avec un sodium >135 mmol/l, les odd ratios ajustés concernant la mortalité étaient significativement plus important pour les patients avec un sodium compris entre 130 et 135 mmol/l (OR 1.53, 95% Cl: 1.33-1.76) ou <130 mmol/l (OR 3.26, 95% Cl: 2.48-4.29). Les odd ratios ajustés concernant la réhospitalisation étaient également augmentés pour les patients présentant un sodium entre 130 et 135 mmol/l (OR 1.28, 95% Cl: 1.12-1.46) ou <130 mmol/l (OR 1.44, 95% Cl: 1.02-2.02). Conclusions et perspectives: L'hyponatrémie est fréquente chez les patients se présentant avec une embolie pulmonaire, de plus elle est un prédicateur indépendant de la mortalité à court terme, ainsi que du taux de réhospitalisation. La natrémie est une information généralement disponible lors de l'établissement d'un pronostic. Bien que cette association soit compatible avec une activation neurohumorale, nous ne pouvons pas attester des mécanismes impliqués, du fait que notre étude ne donne pas d'informations sur d'autres étapes de la physiologie de cette association.

I want to quit education: a longitudinal study of stress and optimism as predictors of school dropout intention

Prior research on school dropout has often focused on stable person- and institution-level variables. In this research, we investigate longitudinally perceived stress and optimism as predictors of dropout intentions over a period of four years, and distinguish between stable and temporary predictors of dropout intentions. Findings based on a nationally representative sample of 16e20 year-olds in Switzerland (N ¼ 4312) show that both average levels of stress and optimism as well as annually varying levels of stress and optimism affect dropout intentions. Additionally, results show that optimism buffers the negative impact of annually varying stress (i.e., years with more stress than usual), but not of stable levels of stress (i.e., stress over four years). The implications of the results are discussed according to a dynamic and preventive approach of school dropout.

Effect of training-sample size and classification difficulty on the accuracy of genomic predictors.

Introduction: As part of the MicroArray Quality Control (MAQC)-II project, this analysis examines how the choice of univariate feature-selection methods and classification algorithms may influence the performance of genomic predictors under varying degrees of prediction difficulty represented by three clinically relevant endpoints. Methods: We used gene-expression data from 230 breast cancers (grouped into training and independent validation sets), and we examined 40 predictors (five univariate feature-selection methods combined with eight different classifiers) for each of the three endpoints. Their classification performance was estimated on the training set by using two different resampling methods and compared with the accuracy observed in the independent validation set. Results: A ranking of the three classification problems was obtained, and the performance of 120 models was estimated and assessed on an independent validation set. The bootstrapping estimates were closer to the validation performance than were the cross-validation estimates. The required sample size for each endpoint was estimated, and both gene-level and pathway-level analyses were performed on the obtained models. Conclusions: We showed that genomic predictor accuracy is determined largely by an interplay between sample size and classification difficulty. Variations on univariate feature-selection methods and choice of classification algorithm have only a modest impact on predictor performance, and several statistically equally good predictors can be developed for any given classification problem.