Dispersal of seeds of Hymenaea courbaril (Fabaceae) in a logged rain forest in the Peruvian Amazonian

Seed dispersal of Hymenaea courbaril was studied by following the fate of 585 seeds embedded with small magnets and set in displays in and near a logged strip in rain forest in the Peruvian Amazonian. Mammals took fruits from all displays, which were located in the forest, edge, and cleared strip. Overall removal rates were low - a median of 8.1 fruits / month from displays maintained with 8-10 fruits - but were higher in August than in earlier months. Most fruits were dropped near the display or had their seeds eaten, but > 13% were successfully dispersed. Most of the dispersed seeds were buried, which increases probability of germination. Maximum dispersal distance of live seeds was 12.1 m (median 3.1 m), but other magnets were transported up to 34 m, indicating seeds were dispersed further, but then eaten. Acouchies (most likely Myoprocta pratti) and agoutis (Dasyprocta fuliginosa) were apparently the main dispersal agents. Dispersal of seeds from the forest into the logged strip was rare, suggesting that although rodents disperse H. courbaril, they cannot be relied on for the reseeding this and similar species in recent clearings.

On the Hill estimator: a comparison of methods

Extreme value theory (EVT) deals with the occurrence of extreme phenomena. The tail index is a very important parameter appearing in the estimation of the probability of rare events. Under a semiparametric framework, inference requires the choice of a number k of upper order statistics to be considered. This is the crux of the matter and there is no definite formula to do it, since a small k leads to high variance and large values of k tend to increase the bias. Several methodologies have emerged in literature, specially concerning the most popular Hill estimator (Hill, 1975). In this work we compare through simulation well-known procedures presented in Drees and Kaufmann (1998), Matthys and Beirlant (2000), Beirlant et al. (2002) and de Sousa and Michailidis (2004), with a heuristic scheme considered in Frahm et al. (2005) within the estimation of a different tail measure but with a similar context. We will see that the new method may be an interesting alternative.

Identification of duplicates of cassava accessions sampled on the North Region of Brazil using microsatellite markers

Duplicates are common in germplasm banks and their identification is needed to facilitate germplasm bank management and to reduce maintenance costs. The aim of this work was to identify duplicates of cassava from a germplasm bank in Eastern Amazon, which had been previously characterized both morphological and agronomically. In order to be genotyped with 15 microsatellite loci, 36 accessions were selected. These accessions were classified into 13 groups of similar morpho-agronomical characteristics. All loci were polymorphic, and 75 alleles were identified, with an average of five alleles per loci and H E = 0.66. There were determined 34 pairs of genotypes with identical multiloci profiles and the probability of genetic identity was 1.1x10-12 with probability of exclusion of 99.9999%. Among these duplicates, there are accessions sampled on different years and places, but with different names and accessions with the same name sampled in different places and years. The study identified genotypes that are grown in different places and that have been maintained over the years by local farmers.

Analysis of exploratory eye movements in patients with schizophrenia during visual scanning of projective tests' figures

OBJECTIVE: Compare pattern of exploratory eye movements during visual scanning of the Rorschach and TAT test cards in people with schizophrenia and controls. METHOD: 10 participants with schizophrenia and 10 controls matched by age, schooling and intellectual level participated in the study. Severity of symptoms was evaluated with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Test cards were divided into three groups: TAT cards with scenes content, TAT cards with interaction content (TAT-faces), and Rorschach cards with abstract images. Eye movements were analyzed for: total number, duration and location of fixation; and length of saccadic movements. RESULTS: Different pattern of eye movement was found, with schizophrenia participants showing lower number of fixations but longer fixation duration in Rorschach cards and TAT-faces. The biggest difference was observed in Rorschach, followed by TAT-faces and TAT-scene cards. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest alteration in visual exploration mechanisms possibly related to integration of abstract visual information.

Joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data on breast cancer

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências (Especialidade em Matemática)

Systems biology approaches for the design of novel Saccharomyces cerevisiae winemaking strains for enhanced flavour compounds synthesis

Tese de Doutoramento em Biologia Ambiental e Molecular

High-level of viral genomic diversity in cervical cancers: a Brazilian study on human papillomavirus type 16

Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is the third most frequent cancer among women worldwide and is associated with persistent infection by carcinogenic human papillomaviruses (HPVs). The combination of large populations of viral progeny and decades of sustained infection may allow for the generation of intra-patient diversity, in spite of the assumedly low mutation rates of PVs. While the natural history of chronic HPVs infections has been comprehensively described, within-host viral diversity remains largely unexplored. In this study we have applied next generation sequencing to the analysis of intra-host genetic diversity in ten ICC and one condyloma cases associated to single HPV16 infection. We retrieved from all cases near full-length genomic sequences. All samples analyzed contained polymorphic sites, ranging from 3 to 125 polymorphic positions per genome, and the median probability of a viral genome picked at random to be identical to the consensus sequence in the lesion was only 40%. We have also identified two independent putative duplication events in two samples, spanning the L2 and the L1 gene, respectively. Finally, we have identified with good support a chimera of human and viral DNA. We propose that viral diversity generated during HPVs chronic infection may be fueled by innate and adaptive immune pressures. Further research will be needed to understand the dynamics of viral DNA variability, differentially in benign and malignant lesions, as well as in tissues with differential intensity of immune surveillance. Finally, the impact of intralesion viral diversity on the long-term oncogenic potential may deserve closer attention.

Chest pain in the emergency room. Importance of a systematic approach

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficiency of a systematic diagnostic approach in patients with chest pain in the emergency room in relation to the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and the rate of hospitalization in high-cost units. METHODS: One thousand and three consecutive patients with chest pain were screened according to a pre-established process of diagnostic investigation based on the pre-test probability of ACS determinate by chest pain type and ECG changes. RESULTS: Of the 1003 patients, 224 were immediately discharged home because of no suspicion of ACS (route 5) and 119 were immediately transferred to the coronary care united because of ST elevation or left bundle-branch block (LBBB) (route 1) (74% of these had a final diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction [AMI]). Of the 660 patients that remained in the emergency room under observation, 77 (12%) had AMI without ST segment elevation and 202 (31%) had unstable angina (UA). In route 2 (high probability of ACS) 17% of patients had AMI and 43% had UA, whereas in route 3 (low probability) 2% had AMI and 7 % had UA. The admission ECG has been confirmed as a poor sensitivity test for the diagnosis of AMI ( 49%), with a positive predictive value considered only satisfactory (79%). CONCLUSION: A systematic diagnostic strategy, as used in this study, is essential in managing patients with chest pain in the emergency room in order to obtain high diagnostic accuracy, lower cost, and optimization of the use of coronary care unit beds.

Efficacy of a diagnostic strategy for patients with chest pain and no ST-segment elevation in the emergency room

PURPOSE: To evaluate the efficacy of a systematic model of care for patients with chest pain and no ST segment elevation in the emergency room. METHODS: From 1003 patients submitted to an algorithm diagnostic investigation by probability of acute ischemic syndrome. We analyzed 600 ones with no elevation of ST segment, then enrolled to diagnostic routes of median (route 2) and low probability (route 3) to ischemic syndrome. RESULTS: In route 2 we found 17% acute myocardial infarction and 43% unstable angina, whereas in route 3 the rates were 2% and 7%, respectively. Patients with normal/non--specific ECG had 6% probability of AMI whereas in those with negative first CKMB it was 7%; the association of the 2 data only reduced it to 4%. In patients in route 2 the diagnosis of AMI could only be ruled out with serial CKMB measurement up to 9 hours, while in route 3 it could be done in up to 3 hours. Thus, sensitivity and negative predictive value of admission CKMB for AMI were 52% and 93%, respectively. About one-half of patients with unstable angina did not disclose objective ischemic changes on admission. CONCLUSION: The use of a systematic model of care in patients with chest pain offers the opportunity of hindering inappropriate release of patients with ACI and reduces unnecessary admissions. However some patients even with normal ECG should not be released based on a negative first CKMB. Serial measurement of CKMB up to 9 hours is necessary in patients with medium probability of AMI.

Predictive value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in patients with chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy and nonsustained ventricular tachycardia

OBJECTIVE: Risk stratification of patients with nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy (CCC). METHODS: Seventy eight patients with CCC and NSVT were consecutively and prospectively studied. All patients underwent to 24-hour Holter monitoring, radioisotopic ventriculography, left ventricular angiography, and electrophysiologic study. With programmed ventricular stimulation. RESULTS: Sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) was induced in 25 patients (32%), NSVT in 20 (25.6%) and ventricular fibrillation in 4 (5.1%). In 29 patients (37.2%) no arrhythmia was inducible. During a 55.7-month-follow-up, 22 (28.2%) patients died, 16 due to sudden death, 2 due to nonsudden cardiac death and 4 due to noncardiac death. Logistic regression analysis showed that induction was the independent and main variable that predicted the occurrence of subsequent events and cardiac death (probability of 2.56 and 2.17, respectively). The Mantel-Haenszel chi-square test showed that survival probability was significantly lower in the inducible group than in the noninductible group. The percentage of patients free of events was significantly higher in the noninducible group. CONCLUSION: Induction of SMVT during programmed ventricular stimulation was a predictor of arrhythmia occurrence cardiac death and general mortality in patients with CCC and NSVT.

Hazard assessment of storm events for the battery, New York

The environmental and socio-economic importance of coastal areas is widely recognized, but at present these areas face severe weaknesses and high-risk situations. The increased demand and growing human occupation of coastal zones have greatly contributed to exacerbating such weaknesses. Today, throughout the world, in all countries with coastal regions, episodes of waves overtopping and coastal flooding are frequent. These episodes are usually responsible for property losses and often put human lives at risk. The floods are caused by coastal storms primarily due to the action of very strong winds. The propagation of these storms towards the coast induces high water levels. It is expected that climate change phenomena will contribute to the intensification of coastal storms. In this context, an estimation of coastal flooding hazards is of paramount importance for the planning and management of coastal zones. Consequently, carrying out a series of storm scenarios and analyzing their impacts through numerical modeling is of prime interest to coastal decision-makers. Firstly, throughout this work, historical storm tracks and intensities are characterized for the northeastern region of United States coast, in terms of probability of occurrence. Secondly, several storm events with high potential of occurrence are generated using a specific tool of DelftDashboard interface for Delft3D software. Hydrodynamic models are then used to generate ensemble simulations to assess storms' effects on coastal water levels. For the United States’ northeastern coast, a highly refined regional domain is considered surrounding the area of The Battery, New York, situated in New York Harbor. Based on statistical data of numerical modeling results, a review of the impact of coastal storms to different locations within the study area is performed.

Atrioventricular pacemaker. Incidence and causes of reprogramming in long-term follow-up

OBJECTIVE: To assess the incidence of problems requiring reprogramming of atrioventricular pacemakers in a long-term follow-up, and also the causes for this procedure. METHODS: During the period from May '98 to December '99, 657 patients were retrospectively studied, An actuarial curve for the event reprogramming of the stimulation mode was drawn. RESULTS: The follow-up period ranged from 12 to 178 months (mean = 81 months). Eighty-two (12.4%) patients underwent reprogramming of the stimulation mode as follows: 63 (9.5%) changed to VVI,(R/C); 10 (1.5%) changed to DVI,C; 6 (0.9%) changed to VDD,C; and 3 (0.5%) changed to DOO. The causes for the reprogramming were as follows: arrhythmia conducted by the pacemaker in 39 (37.6%) patients; loss of atrial sensitivity or capture, or both, in 39 (38.6%) patients; and microfracture of atrial electrode in 5 (4.9%) patients. The stimulation mode reprogramming free probability after 15 years was 58%. CONCLUSION: In a long-term follow-up, the atrioventricular pacemaker provided a low incidence of complications, a high probability of permanence in the DDD,C mode, and the most common cause of reprogramming was arrhythmia conducted by the pacemaker.

Bundle branch and atrioventricular block as complications of acute myocardial infarction in the thrombolytic era

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the incidence of intraventricular and atrioventricular conduction defects associated with acute myocardial infarction and the degree of in hospital mortality resulting from this condition during the era of thrombolytic therapy. METHODS: Observational study of a cohort of 929 consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction. Multivariate analysis by logistic regression. Was used. RESULTS: Logistic regression showed a greater incidence of bundle branch block in male sex (odds ratio = 1.87, 95% CI = 1.02-3.42), age over 70 years (odds ratio = 2.31, 95% CI = 1.68-5.00), anterior localization of the infarction (odds ratio = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.03-3.65). There was a greater incidence of complete atrioventricular block in inferior infarcts (odds ratio = 2.59, 95% CI 1.30-5.18) and the presence of cardiogenic shock (odds ratio = 3.90, 95% CI = 1.43-10.65). Use of a thrombolytic agent was associated with a tendency toward a lower occurrence of bundle branch block (odds ratio = 0.68) and a greater occurrence of complete atrioventricular block (odds ratio = 1.44). The presence of bundle branch block (odds ratio = 2.45 95% , CI = 1.14-5.28) and of complete atrioventricular block (odds ratio = 13.59, 95% CI = 5.43-33.98) was associated with a high and independent probability of inhospital death. CONCLUSION: During the current era of thrombolytic therapy and in this population, intraventricular disturbances of electrical conduction and complete atrioventricular block were associated with a high and independent risk of inhospital death during acute myocardial infarction.

Characteristics associated with the dropout of hypertensive patients followed up in an outpatient referral clinic

OBJECTIVE: To determine the characteristics associated with the dropout of patients followed up in a Brazilian out patient clinic specializing in hypertension. METHODS: Planned prospective cohort study of patients who were prescribed an antihypertensive treatment after an extensive initial evaluation. The following parameters were analyzed: sex, age, educational level, duration of disease, pressure level used for classifying the patient, previous treatment, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, familial history of hypertension, and lesion in a target organ. RESULTS: We studied 945 hypertensive patients, 533 (56%) of whom dropped out of the follow-up. The mean age was 52.3±12.9 years. The highest probabilities of dropout of the follow-up were associated with current smoking, relative risk of 1.46 (1.04-2.06); educational level equal to or below 5 years of schooling, relative risk of 1.52 (1.11-2.08); and hypertension duration below 5 years, relative risk of 1.78 (1.28-2.48). Age increase was associated with a higher probability of follow-up with a relative risk of 0.98 (0.97-0.99). CONCLUSION: We identified a group at risk for dropping out the follow-up, which comprised patients with a lower educational level, a recent diagnosis of hypertension, and who were smokers. We think that measures assuring adherence to treatment should be directed to this group of patients.

Does a Role Exist for Tilting-Guided Therapy in the Management of Neurocardiogenic Syncope?

PURPOSE: Upright tilt-table testing (UTT) is an useful method for identifying patients with neurocardiogenic syncope, but its role in the evaluation of therapeutic efficacy is controversial. The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between negative UTT after therapy introduction (acute efficacy) and symptom recurrence during follow-up (chronic efficacy). METHODS: We studied 56 severely symptomatic patients (age 27±19 years) with recurrent (7±12 episodes) neurocardiogenic syncope (positive UTT). Once empirical pharmacological therapy was initiated, all patients underwent another UTT (therapeutic evaluation test - TET). Therapy was not modified after TET results. The probability of symptom recurrence was analyzed with the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test in patients with negative and positive TET. RESULTS: Negative UTT after therapy was related to a significantly lower probability of recurrence during follow-up (4.9 versus 52.4% in 12 months, P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: A good correlation exists between acute and long-term efficacy of pharmacological therapy for neurocardiogenic syncope, so that serial UTT may be considered a good method for identifying an effective therapeutic strategy.