The hourglass and the early conservation models--co-existing patterns of developmental constraints in vertebrates.

Developmental constraints have been postulated to limit the space of feasible phenotypes and thus shape animal evolution. These constraints have been suggested to be the strongest during either early or mid-embryogenesis, which corresponds to the early conservation model or the hourglass model, respectively. Conflicting results have been reported, but in recent studies of animal transcriptomes the hourglass model has been favored. Studies usually report descriptive statistics calculated for all genes over all developmental time points. This introduces dependencies between the sets of compared genes and may lead to biased results. Here we overcome this problem using an alternative modular analysis. We used the Iterative Signature Algorithm to identify distinct modules of genes co-expressed specifically in consecutive stages of zebrafish development. We then performed a detailed comparison of several gene properties between modules, allowing for a less biased and more powerful analysis. Notably, our analysis corroborated the hourglass pattern at the regulatory level, with sequences of regulatory regions being most conserved for genes expressed in mid-development but not at the level of gene sequence, age, or expression, in contrast to some previous studies. The early conservation model was supported with gene duplication and birth that were the most rare for genes expressed in early development. Finally, for all gene properties, we observed the least conservation for genes expressed in late development or adult, consistent with both models. Overall, with the modular approach, we showed that different levels of molecular evolution follow different patterns of developmental constraints. Thus both models are valid, but with respect to different genomic features.

A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Juxtaposition of melt impregnation and high-temperature shear zones in the upper mantle; field and petrological constraints from the Lanzo peridotite (Northern Italy)

Results of a field and microstructural study between the northern and the central bodies of the Lanzo plagioclase peridotite massif (NW Italy) indicate that the spatial distribution of deformation is asymmetric across kilometre-scale mantle shear zones. The southwestern part of the shear zone (footwall) shows a gradually increasing degree of deformation from porphyroclastic peridotites to mylonite, whereas the northeastern part (hanging wall) quickly grades into weakly deformed peridotites. Discordant gabbroic and basaltic dykes are asymmetrically distributed and far more abundant in the footwall of the shear zone. The porphyroclastic peridotite displays porphyroclastic zones and domains of igneous crystallization whereas mylonites are characterized by elongated porphyroclasts, embedded between fine-grained, polycrystalline bands of olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene, spinel, rare titanian pargasite, and domains of recrystallized olivine. Two types of melt impregnation textures have been found: (1) clinopyroxene porphyroclasts incongruently reacted with migrating melt to form orthopyroxene plagioclase; (2) olivine porphyroclasts are partially replaced by interstitial orthopyroxene. The meltrock reaction textures tend to disappear in the mylonites, indicating that deformation in the mylonite continued under subsolidus conditions. The pyroxene chemistry is correlated with grain size. High-Al pyroxene cores indicate high temperatures (11001030C), whereas low-Al neoblasts display lower final equilibration temperatures (860C). The spinel Cr-number [molar Cr/(Cr Al)] and TiO2 concentrations show extreme variability covering almost the entire range known from abyssal peridotites. The spinel compositions of porphyroclastic peridotites from the central body are more variable than spinel from mylonite, mylonite with ultra-mylonite bands, and porphyroclastic rocks of the northern body. The spinel compositions probably indicate disequilibrium and would favour rapid cooling, and a faster exhumation of the central peridotite body, relative to the northern one. Our results indicate that melt migration and high-temperature deformation are juxtaposed both in time and space. Meltrock reaction may have caused grain-size reduction, which in turn led to localization of deformation. It is likely that melt-lubricated, actively deforming peridotites acted as melt focusing zones, with permeabilities higher than the surrounding, less deformed peridotites. Later, under subsolidus conditions, pinning in polycrystalline bands in the mylonites inhibited substantial grain growth and led to permanent weak zones in the upper mantle peridotite, with a permeability that is lower than in the weakly deformed peridotites. Such an inversion in permeability might explain why actively deforming, fine-grained peridotite mylonite acted as a permeability barrier and why ascending mafic melts might terminate and crystallize as gabbros along actively deforming shear zones. Melt-lubricated mantle shear zones provide a mechanism for explaining the discontinuous distribution of gabbros in oceancontinent transition zones, oceanic core complexes and ultraslow-spreading ridges.

Constraints on the permeability structure of alluvial aquifers from the poro-elastic inversion of multi-frequency P-wave velocity logs

We have explored the possibility of obtaining first-order permeability estimates for saturated alluvial sediments based on the poro-elastic interpretation of the P-wave velocity dispersion inferred from sonic logs. Modern sonic logging tools designed for environmental and engineering applications allow one for P-wave velocity measurements at multiple emitter frequencies over a bandwidth covering 5 to 10 octaves. Methodological considerations indicate that, for saturated unconsolidated sediments in the silt to sand range and typical emitter frequencies ranging from approximately 1 to 30 kHz, the observable velocity dispersion should be sufficiently pronounced to allow one for reliable first-order estimations of the permeability structure. The corresponding predictions have been tested on and verified for a borehole penetrating a typical surficial alluvial aquifer. In addition to multifrequency sonic logs, a comprehensive suite of nuclear and electrical logs, an S-wave log, a litholog, and a limited number laboratory measurements of the permeability from retrieved core material were also available. This complementary information was found to be essential for parameterizing the poro-elastic inversion procedure and for assessing the uncertainty and internal consistency of corresponding permeability estimates. Our results indicate that the thus obtained permeability estimates are largely consistent with those expected based on the corresponding granulometric characteristics, as well as with the available evidence form laboratory measurements. These findings are also consistent with evidence from ocean acoustics, which indicate that, over a frequency range of several orders-of-magnitude, the classical theory of poro-elasticity is generally capable of explaining the observed P-wave velocity dispersion in medium- to fine-grained seabed sediments

The Upper Oligocene of Montgat (Catalan Coastal Ranges, Spain): new age constraints to the western Mediterranean Basin opening

The Oligocene deposits of Montgat are integrated in a small outcrop made up of Cenozoic and Mesozoic rocks located in the Garraf-Montnegre horst, close to the major Barcelona fault. The Oligocene of Montgat consists of detrital sediments of continental origin mainly deposited in alluvial fan environments; these deposits are folded and affected by thrusts and strike-slip faults. They can be divided in two lithostratigraphic units separated by a minor southwest-directed thrust: (i) the Turó de Montgat Unit composed of litharenites and lithorudites with high contents of quartz, feldspar, plutonic and limestone rock fragments; and (ii) the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit composed of calcilitharenites and calcilithorudites with high contents of dolosparite and dolomicrite rock fragments. The petrological composition of both units indicates that sediments were derived from the erosion of Triassic (Buntsandstein, Muschelkalk and Keuper facies), Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous rocks (Barremian to Aptian in age). Stratigraphic and petrological data suggest that these units correspond to two coalescent alluvial fans with a source area located northwestwards in the adjoining Collserola and Montnegre inner areas. Micromammal fossils (Archaeomys sp.) found in a mudstone layer of the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit assign a Chattian age (Late Oligocene) to the studied materials. Thus, the Montgat deposits are the youngest dated deposits affected by the contractional deformation that led to the development of the Catalan Intraplate Chain. Taking into account that the oldest syn-rift deposits in the Catalan Coastal Ranges are Aquitanian in age, this allows to precise that the change from a compressive to an extensional regime in this area took place during latest Oligocene-earliest Aquitanian times. This age indicates that the onset of crustal extension related to the opening of the western Mediterranean Basin started in southern France during latest Eocene-early Oligocene and propagated southwestward, affecting the Catalan Coastal Ranges and the northeastern part of the Valencia trough during the latest Chattian-earliest Aquitanian times.

Stochastic delay equations with non-negativity constraints driven by fractional Brownian motion

In this note we prove an existence and uniqueness result for the solution of multidimensional stochastic delay differential equations with normal reflection. The equations are driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H > 1/2. The stochastic integral with respect to the fractional Brownian motion is a pathwise Riemann¿Stieltjes integral.

The Upper Oligocene of Montgat (Catalan Coastal Ranges, Spain): new age constraints to the western Mediterranean Basin opening

The Oligocene deposits of Montgat are integrated in a small outcrop made up of Cenozoic and Mesozoic rocks located in the Garraf-Montnegre horst, close to the major Barcelona fault. The Oligocene of Montgat consists of detrital sediments of continental origin mainly deposited in alluvial fan environments; these deposits are folded and affected by thrusts and strike-slip faults. They can be divided in two lithostratigraphic units separated by a minor southwest-directed thrust: (i) the Turó de Montgat Unit composed of litharenites and lithorudites with high contents of quartz, feldspar, plutonic and limestone rock fragments; and (ii) the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit composed of calcilitharenites and calcilithorudites with high contents of dolosparite and dolomicrite rock fragments. The petrological composition of both units indicates that sediments were derived from the erosion of Triassic (Buntsandstein, Muschelkalk and Keuper facies), Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous rocks (Barremian to Aptian in age). Stratigraphic and petrological data suggest that these units correspond to two coalescent alluvial fans with a source area located northwestwards in the adjoining Collserola and Montnegre inner areas. Micromammal fossils (Archaeomys sp.) found in a mudstone layer of the Pla de la Concòrdia Unit assign a Chattian age (Late Oligocene) to the studied materials. Thus, the Montgat deposits are the youngest dated deposits affected by the contractional deformation that led to the development of the Catalan Intraplate Chain. Taking into account that the oldest syn-rift deposits in the Catalan Coastal Ranges are Aquitanian in age, this allows to precise that the change from a compressive to an extensional regime in this area took place during latest Oligocene-earliest Aquitanian times. This age indicates that the onset of crustal extension related to the opening of the western Mediterranean Basin started in southern France during latest Eocene-early Oligocene and propagated southwestward, affecting the Catalan Coastal Ranges and the northeastern part of the Valencia trough during the latest Chattian-earliest Aquitanian times.

Radiometric age constraints on mineral growth, metamorphism, and tectonism of the Gummfluh klippe, Brianconnais domain of the Prealpes, Switzerland

A combined Ar-40/Ar-39, K/Ar, Rb/Sr and stable isotope study has been made of white micas from the Gummfluh klippe (Brianconnais domain of the Prealpes), Switzerland. The klippe consists mainly of Mesozoic to early Tertiary carbonate rocks metamorphosed from anchizonal to epizonal conditions. At the base of the klippe is a 10-50 m thick, ductilely deformed marble mylonite containing deformed authigenic quartz segregations. Stable isotope measurements of the coexisting calcite (deltaO-18SMOW=24.5) and quartz (deltaO-18SMOW=28.4) from the mylonite indicate relatively low temperatures (< 300-degreesC) during mylonitization. Analyses of white mica separates of varying size fractions from the mylonitic rocks by K/Ar and Rb/Sr techniques yield ages between 57 and 103 Ma. This variation is correlated with two parameters, the size of the mineral fraction, and the proportion of 2M1 (more phengitic) to 1M (more muscovitic) polytype in the sample. The K/Ar and Rb/Sr ages are generally younger in the smaller size fractions, which also containless 2M1 phengite. High precision Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectra from different size fractions of these micas record three distinct components, a small Hercynian component (ca. 200-300 Ma), a significant Eoalpine component (64-80 Ma) forming Ar-40/Ar-39 age plateaus, and a very minor Tertiary component (ca. 20-40 Ma). Characterization of the samples by SEM indicates the presence of two white mica populations, a coarser grained, deformed, detrital mica that probably corresponds to the 2M1 phengite and a finer grained neoformed 1M mica. Collectively these observations suggest that the Gummfluh samples contain a mixture of detrital phengites of Hercynian age together with neocrystallized muscovites grown during the late Eoalpine metamorphic event followed by minor argon loss during the Tertiary. The main geologic episode recorded in the Ar-40/Ar-39 age spectra of white micas in the mylonite is of Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary age (64-80 Ma), representing the first reliable Eoalpine ages ever to be reported from the Prealpes. Contrary to tectonic models, the marble mylonite at the base of the Gummfluh klippe appears to be a Cretaceous thrust plane and not the thrust surface formed during transport of the klippe into its present position from the Penninic Alps during the Tertiary. The late Cretaceous thrust developed during marine sedimentation at a depth of 800 m below the seafloor at temperatures of approximately 280-degrees-C, facilitated by warm fluids along the tectonic discontinuity.

The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients.

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.

Early diagenesis of bone and tooth apatite in fluvial and marine settings: Constraints from combined oxygen isotope, nitrogen and REE analysis

Fossil bones and teeth of Late Pleistocene terrestrial mammals from Rhine River gravels (RS) and the North Sea (NS), that have been exposed to chemically and isotopically distinct diagenetic fluids (fresh water versus seawater), were investigated to study the effects of early diagenesis on biogenic apatite. Changes in phosphate oxygen isotopic composition (delta O-18(PO4)), nitrogen content (wt.% N) and rare earth element (REE) concentrations were measured along profiles within bones that have not been completely fossilized, and in skeletal tissues (bone, dentine, enamel) with different susceptibilities to diagenetic alteration. Early diagenetic changes of elemental and isotopic compositions of apatite in fossil bone are related to the loss of the stabilizing collagen matrix. The REE concentration is negatively correlated with the nitrogen content, and therefore the amount of collagen provides a sensitive proxy for early diagenetic alteration. REE patterns of RS and NS bones indicate initial fossilization in a fresh water fluid with similar REE compositions. Bones from both settings have nearly collagen-free, REE-, U-, F- and Sr-enriched altered outer rims, while the collagen-bearing bone compacta in the central part often display early diagenetic pyrite void-fillings. However, NS bones exposed to Holocene seawater have outer rim delta O-18(PO4) values that are 1.1 to 2.6 parts per thousand higher compared to the central part of the same bones (delta O-18(PO4) = 18.2 +/- 0.9 parts per thousand, n = 19). Surprisingly, even the collagen-rich bone compacta with low REE contents and apatite crystallinity seems altered, as NS tooth enamel (delta O-18(PO4) =15.0 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand, n=4) has about 3%. lower delta O-18(PO4) values, values that are also similar to those of enamel from RS teeth. Therefore, REE concentration, N content and apatite crystallinity are in this case only poor proxies for the alteration of delta O-18(PO4) values. Seawater exposure of a few years up to 8 kyr can change the delta O-18(PO4) values of the bone apatite by > 3 parts per thousand. Therefore, bones fossilized in marine settings must be treated with caution for palaeoclimatic reconstructions. However, enamel seems to preserve pristine delta O-18(PO4) values on this time scale. Using species-specific calibrations for modern mammals, a mean delta O-18(H2O) value can be reconstructed for Late Pleistocene mammalian drinking water of around -9.2 +/- 0.5 parts per thousand, which is similar to that of Late Pleistocene groundwater from central Europe. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mobile Robot Local Predictive Control under Perception Constraints

This research extends a previously developed work concerning about the use of local model predictive control in mobile robots. Hence, experimental results are presented as a way to improve the methodology by considering aspects as trajectory accuracy and time performance. In this sense, the cost function and the prediction horizon are important aspects to be considered. The platformused is a differential driven robot with a free rotating wheel. The aim of the present work is to test the control method by measuring trajectory tracking accuracy and time performance. Moreover, strategies for the integration with perception system and path planning are also introduced. In this sense, monocular image data provide an occupancy grid where safety trajectories are computed by using goal attraction potential fields