960 resultados para Probabilidade de default
Resumo:
Purpose : Effective flow of data and communication at every stage of a construction project is essential for achieving required coordination and collaboration between the project participants, leading to successful management of the projects. In present scenario, when project participants are geographically separated, adoption of information communication technology (ICT) enables such effective communication. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to focus on ICT adoption for building project management.---------- Design/methodology/approach : It is difficult to quantitatively evaluate the benefits of ICT adoption in the multiple enterprise scenario of building project management. It requires qualitative analysis based on the perceptions of the construction professionals. The paper utilizes interpretive structural modeling (ISM) technique to assess importance of perceived benefits and their driving power and dependence on other benefits.---------- Findings : The developed ISM model shows that all the categories of benefits, i.e. benefits related to projects, team management, technology, and organization are inter-related and cannot be achieved in isolation. But, organization- and technology-related benefits have high-driving power and these are “strategic benefits” for the project team organizations. Thus, organizations are required to give more attention on strategically increasing these benefits from application of ICT. Originality/value – This analysis provides a road map to managers or project management organizations to decide that if they are planning ICT adoption for achieving certain benefits then which are the other driving benefits that should be achieved prior to that and also which are the dependent benefits that would be achieved by default.
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The middle years of schooling are increasingly recognised as a crucial stage in students' lives, one that has significant consequences for ongoing educational success. International research indicates that young adolescents benefit from programs designed especially for their needs. Teaching Middle Years offers a systematic overview of the philosophy, principles and issues in middle schooling. It includes contributions from academics and school-based practitioners on intellectual and emotional development in early adolescence, pedagogy, curriculum and assessment of middle years students. This second edition is fully revised to reflect the latest research findings. It includes new chapters on students with diverse needs, school partnerships with families and community, and effective team teaching. Also new to this edition is a chapter that brings middle schooling concepts to life by providing real examples of reform in action.
Resumo:
The middle years of schooling are increasingly recognised as a crucial stage in students' lives, one that has significant consequences for ongoing educational success. International research indicates that young adolescents benefit from programs designed especially for their needs, and the middle years have become an important reform issue for education systems. Teaching Middle Years offers a systematic overview of the philosophy, principles and issues in middle schooling. It includes contributions from academics and school-based practitioners on intellectual and emotional development in early adolescence, pedagogy, curriculum and assessment of middle years students. Written for teachers, student teachers, education leaders and policy makers, Teaching Middle Years is an essential resource for anyone involved in educating young adolescents. Teaching Middle Years is the first comprehensive Australian book to match and surpass the quality of many overseas publications.'
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In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.
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A conversation over a cup of coffee in late 2005 between Australasian Compliance Institute members Bill Dee and Dr Len Gainsford quickly turned to previously unsuccessful attempts to start a professional journal about compliance. There were two main issue - the difficultly in getting a professional journal off the ground and then sustaining a continuous flow of quality contributions. As practitioners, Bill and Len knew there was a considerable amount of 'thought and practice leadership' compliance material out there but they also knew that such material had not been presented in a relevant and interesting way. A foolish thought arose - could we start a professional journal that practitioners might actually read and use?
Resumo:
In discussions of educational administration theory, school culture has emerged as a contentious construct characterized by polarized positions. The underlying tensions are between conflicting structuralist and post-structuralist perspectives. These have led to views of Christian school culture and school organization as being either, on the one hand, static, positivist, hierarchical, individualistic and capitalistic or, on the other, dynamic, coherentist, communally interdependent, service oriented and Christ-centered. All schools demonstrate an ethos or organizational culture by default if not by design. It is therefore imperative for Christian school administrators, educators, and the community to consciously define the aspects of school culture that reflect the shared biblical values of the Christian school community.
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In this paper, the optimal design of an active flow control device; Shock Control Bump (SCB) on suction and pressure sides of transonic aerofoil to reduce transonic total drag is investigated. Two optimisation test cases are conducted using different advanced Evolutionary Algorithms (EAs); the first optimiser is the Hierarchical Asynchronous Parallel Evolutionary Algorithm (HAPMOEA) based on canonical Evolutionary Strategies (ES). The second optimiser is the HAPMOEA is hybridised with one of well-known Game Strategies; Nash-Game. Numerical results show that SCB significantly reduces the drag by 30% when compared to the baseline design. In addition, the use of a Nash-Game strategy as a pre-conditioner of global control saves computational cost up to 90% when compared to the first optimiser HAPMOEA.
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Objective: The evidence was reviewed on how physical activity could influence the regulation of food intake by either adjusting the sensitivity of appetite control mechanisms or by generating an energy deficit that could adjust the drive to eat. Design: Interventionist and correlational studies that had a significant influence on the relationship between physical activity and food intake were reviewed. Interventionist studies involve a deliberate imposition of physical activity with subsequent monitoring of the eating response. Correlational studies make use of naturally occurring differences in the levels of physical activity (between and within subjects) with simultaneous assessment of energy expenditure and intake. Subjects: Studies using lean, overweight, and obese men and women were included. Results: Only 19% of interventionist studies report an increase in energy intake after exercise; 65% show no change and 16% show a decrease in appetite. Of the correlational studies, approximately half show no relationship between energy expenditure and intake. These data indicate a rather loose coupling between energy expenditure and intake. A common sense view is that exercise is futile as a form of weight control because the energy deficit drives a compensatory increase in food intake. However, evidence shows that this is not generally true. One positive aspect of this is that raising energy expenditure through physical activity (or maintaining an active life style) can cause weight loss or prevent weight gain. A negative feature is that when people become sedentary after a period of high activity, food intake is not “down-regulated” to balance a reduced energy expenditure. Conclusion: Evidence suggests that a high level of physical activity can aid weight control either by improving the matching of food intake to energy expenditure (regulation) or by raising expenditure so that it is difficult for people to eat themselves into a positive energy balance.
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As part of a development plan-in-progress spanning a total of 25 years(1996 to 2020), Malaysia’s Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) provides a unique opportunity to witness a brief and microcosmic unfolding of the reciprocally formative process between society and technology that Lewis Mumford lays out in exhaustive detail in Technics and Civilization (Mumford, 1963). The interlocking of national imagining, destiny and progress with a specific group of technologies, information and communication technologies (ICT) is, in itself, worthy of interest. However, what renders the MSC doubly remarkable is its introduction in Malaysia, one of the most well established of contemporary ethnocracies. This chapter reads the development and implementation of the MSC as the text through which the association between nation and ethnicity is examined. Broadly speaking I argue here that the MSC inflects the imagining(s) of Malaysia at two levels. At the first level where the MSC is understood to be the insertion of a new policy into Malaysia’s pre-existent ethnocratic climate, I contend the MSC inflects the nation through its incongruence with prevalent conditions. At the second level, where the MSC is viewed through the position of its Chinese populace, I suggest that the MSC inflects Malaysia (perhaps to a lesser degree) through the re-emphasis it lends to issues of transnationalism and belonging for the Malaysian Chinese.
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Undertaking empirical research on crime and violence can be a tricky enterprise fraught with ethical, methodological, intellectual and legal implications. This chapter takes readers on a reflective journey through the qualitative methodologies I used to research sex work in Kings Cross, miscarriages of justice, female delinquency, sexual violence, and violence in rural and regional settings over a period of nearly 30 years. Reflecting on these experiences, the chapter explores and analyses the reality of doing qualitative field research, the role of the researcher, the politics of subjectivity, the exercise of power, and the ‘muddiness’ of the research process, which is often overlooked in sanitised accounts of the research process (Byrne-Armstrong, Higgs and Horsfall, 2001; Davies, 2000).
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Fables of sovereignty / Wayne Hudson Sovereignty discourse and practice : past and future / Joseph Camilleri Guises of sovereignty / Gerry Simpson Westphalian and Islamic concepts of sovereignty in the Middle East / Amin Saikal Wither sovereignty in Southeast Asia today? / See Seng Tan Ambivalent sovereignty : China and re-imagining the Westphalian ideal / Yongjin Zhang Confronting terrorism : dilemmas of principle and practice regarding sovereignty / Brian L. Job Sovereignty in the 21st century : security, immigration, and refugees / Howard Adelman State sovereignty and international refugee protection / Robyn Lui Do no harm : towards a Hippocratic standard for international civilisation / Neil Arya Sovereignty and the global politics of the environment : beyond Westphalia? / Lorraine Elliott Westphalian sovereignty in the shadow of international justice? a fresh coat of paint for a tainted concept / Jackson Nyamuya Maogoto Development assistance and the hollow sovereignty of the weak / Roland Rich Corruption and transparency in governance and development : reinventing sovereignty for promoting good governance / C. Raj Kumar Re-envisioning economic sovereignty : developing countries and the International Monetary Fund / Ross P. Buckley Trust, legitimacy, and the sharing of sovereignty / William Maley Sovereignty as indirect rule / Barry Hindess Indigenous sovereignty / Paul Keal Civil society in a post-statist circumstance / Jan Aart Scholte.
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AfL practices observed in case studies in a North Queensland school were analysed from a sociocultural theoretical perspective. AfL practices of feedback, dialogue and peer assessment were viewed as an opportunity for students to learn the social expectations about being an autonomous learner, or central participant within the classroom community of practice. This process of becoming more expert and belonging within the community of practice involved students negotiating identities of participation that included knowing both academic skills and social expectations within the classroom. This paper argues that when AfL practices are viewed as ways of enhancing participation, there is potential for learners to negotiate identities as autonomous learners. AfL practices within the daily classroom interactions and pedagogy that enabled students to develop a shared repertoire, joint enterprise and mutual engagement in the classroom communities of practice are described. The challenges for teachers in shifting their gaze to patterns of participation are also briefly discussed.
Standards, teacher judgement and moderation in contexts of national curriculum and assessment reform
Resumo:
This paper puts forward a proposal for reviewing the role and purpose of standards in the context of national curriculum and assessment reform more generally. It seeks to commence the much-needed conversation about standards in the work of teachers as distinct from large-scale testing companies and the policy personnel responsible for reporting. Four key conditions that relate to the effective use of standards to measure improvement and support learning are analysed: clarity about purpose and function; understanding of the representation of standards; moderation practice; and the assessment community. The Queensland experience of the use of standards, teacher judgement and moderation is offered to identify what is educationally preferable in terms of their use and their relationships to curriculum, improvement and accountability. The article illustrates how these practices have recently been challenged by emerging political constraints related to the Australian Government’s implementation of national testing and national partnership funding arrangements tied to the performance of students at or below minimum standards.