Predictive factors for voiding dysfunction after transobturator slings

PURPOSE: To identify the predictive factors for voiding dysfunction after transobturator slings. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the records of all patients who underwent a transobturator sling between March 2003 and December 2008. A total of 514 women had available data with at least a six-week follow-up. Patients' demographics, preoperative symptoms, urodynamic testing including multichannel voiding studies and surgical variables were tabulated. Voiding dysfunction was defined by a catheterized or ultrasonographic postvoid residual greater than 100 cc (≥six weeks after the procedure) associated with any complaints of abnormal voiding. Univariate logistic regression analysis was performed with respect to postoperative voiding dysfunction. RESULTS: The patient population had a mean age of 58.5±12.9 years. Thirty-three out of 514 patients (6.4%) had postoperative voiding dysfunction according to our definition, and 4 (0.78%) required sling transection. No differences were observed between normal and dysfunctional voiders in age, associated prolapse surgery, preoperative postvoid residual, preoperative urinary flow rate, prior pelvic surgery, and menopausal status. Valsalva efforts during the preoperative pressure flow study was the only predictive factor for postoperative voiding dysfunction, 72.4% dysfunctional versus 27.6% normal (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative Valsalva maneuver during the micturition could identify those at risk for voiding dysfunction after transobturator sling, and it should be noted during preoperative counseling.

Predictive Capability of HPV and Pap Tests in Screening for Cervical Cancer over a Three-Year Follow-up

Purpose To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). Methods This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture,made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2ş). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. Results A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2ş (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. Conclusions These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.

The prognostic and predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer

Tissue-based biomarkers are studied to receive information about the pathologic processes and cancer outcome, and to enable development of patient-tailored treatments. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential prognostic and/or predictive value of selected biomarkers in colorectal cancer (CRC). Group IIA secretory phospholipase A2 (IIA PLA2) expression was assessed in 114 samples presenting different phases of human colorectal carcinogenesis. Securin, Ki-67, CD44 variant 6 (CD44v6), aldehyde dehydrogenase 1 (ALDH1) and β-catenin were studied in a material including 227 rectal carcinoma patients treated with short-course preoperative radiotherapy (RT), long-course preoperative (chemo)RT (CRT) or surgery only. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene copy number (GCN), its heterogeneity in CRC tissue, and association with response to EGFR-targeted antibodies cetuximab and panitumumab were analyzed in a cohort of 76 metastatic CRC. IIA PLA2 expression was decreased in invasive carcinomas compared to adenomas, but did not relate to patient survival. High securin expression after long-course (C)RT and high ALDH1 expression in node-negative rectal cancer were independent adverse prognostic factors, ALDH1 specifically in patients treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. The lack of membranous CD44v6 in the rectal cancer invasive front associated with infiltrative growth pattern and the risk of disease recurrence. Heterogeneous EGFR GCN increase predicted benefit from EGFR-targeted antibodies, also in the chemorefractory patient population. In summary, high securin and ALDH1 protein expression independently relate to poor outcome in subgroups of rectal cancer patients, potentially because of resistance to conventional chemotherapeutics. Heterogeneous increase in EGFR GCN was validated to be a promising predictive factor in the treatment of metastatic CRC.

On Bayesian predictive modeling : with applications on the analysis of chromatography data in forensic investigations

Med prediktion avses att man skattar det framtida värdet på en observerbar storhet. Kännetecknande för det bayesianska paradigmet är att osäkerhet gällande okända storheter uttrycks i form av sannolikheter. En bayesiansk prediktiv modell är således en sannolikhetsfördelning över de möjliga värden som en observerbar, men ännu inte observerad storhet kan anta. I de artiklar som ingår i avhandlingen utvecklas metoder, vilka bl.a. tillämpas i analys av kromatografiska data i brottsutredningar. Med undantag för den första artikeln, bygger samtliga metoder på bayesiansk prediktiv modellering. I artiklarna betraktas i huvudsak tre olika typer av problem relaterade till kromatografiska data: kvantifiering, parvis matchning och klustring. I den första artikeln utvecklas en icke-parametrisk modell för mätfel av kromatografiska analyser av alkoholhalt i blodet. I den andra artikeln utvecklas en prediktiv inferensmetod för jämförelse av två stickprov. Metoden tillämpas i den tredje artik eln för jämförelse av oljeprover i syfte att kunna identifiera den förorenande källan i samband med oljeutsläpp. I den fjärde artikeln härleds en prediktiv modell för klustring av data av blandad diskret och kontinuerlig typ, vilken bl.a. tillämpas i klassificering av amfetaminprover med avseende på produktionsomgångar.

Hypomagnesemia in critically ill cancer patients: a prospective study of predictive factors

Hypomagnesemia is the most common electrolyte disturbance seen upon admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Reliable predictors of its occurrence are not described. The objective of this prospective study was to determine factors predictive of hypomagnesemia upon admission to the ICU. In a single tertiary cancer center, 226 patients with different diagnoses upon entering were studied. Hypomagnesemia was defined by serum levels <1.5 mg/dl. Demographic data, type of cancer, cause of admission, previous history of arrhythmia, cardiovascular disease, renal failure, drug administration (particularly diuretics, antiarrhythmics, chemotherapy and platinum compounds), previous nutrition intake and presence of hypovolemia were recorded for each patient. Blood was collected for determination of serum magnesium, potassium, sodium, calcium, phosphorus, blood urea nitrogen and creatinine levels. Upon admission, 103 (45.6%) patients had hypomagnesemia and 123 (54.4%) had normomagnesemia. A normal dietary habit prior to ICU admission was associated with normal Mg levels (P = 0.007) and higher average levels of serum Mg (P = 0.002). Postoperative patients (N = 182) had lower levels of serum Mg (0.60 ± 0.14 mmol/l compared with 0.66 ± 0.17 mmol/l, P = 0.006). A stepwise multiple linear regression disclosed that only normal dietary habits (OR = 0.45; CI = 0.26-0.79) and the fact of being a postoperative patient (OR = 2.42; CI = 1.17-4.98) were significantly correlated with serum Mg levels (overall model probability = 0.001). These findings should be used to identify patients at risk for such disturbance, even in other critically ill populations.

Correlation of serum leptin and insulin levels of pregnant protein-restricted rats with predictive obesity variables

During pregnancy and protein restriction, changes in serum insulin and leptin levels, food intake and several metabolic parameters normally result in enhanced adiposity. We evaluated serum leptin and insulin levels and their correlations with some predictive obesity variables in Wistar rats (90 days), up to the 14th day of pregnancy: control non-pregnant (N = 5) and pregnant (N = 7) groups (control diet: 17% protein), and low-protein non-pregnant (N = 5) and pregnant (N = 6) groups (low-protein diet: 6%). Independent of the protein content of the diet, pregnancy increased total (F1,19 = 22.28, P < 0.001) and relative (F1,19 = 5.57, P < 0.03) food intake, the variation of weight (F1,19 = 49.79, P < 0.000) and final body weight (F1,19 = 19.52, P < 0.001), but glycemia (F1,19 = 9.02, P = 0.01) and the relative weight of gonadal adipose tissue (F1,19 = 17.11, P < 0.001) were decreased. Pregnancy (F1,19 = 18.13, P < 0.001) and low-protein diet (F1,19 = 20.35, P < 0.001) increased the absolute weight of brown adipose tissue. However, the relative weight of this tissue was increased only by protein restriction (F1,19 = 15.20, P < 0.001) and the relative lipid in carcass was decreased in low-protein groups (F1,19 = 4.34, P = 0.05). Serum insulin and leptin levels were similar among groups and did not correlate with food intake. However, there was a positive relationship between serum insulin levels and carcass fat depots in low-protein groups (r = 0.37, P < 0.05), while in pregnancy serum leptin correlated with weight of gonadal (r = 0.39, P < 0.02) and retroperitoneal (r = 0.41, P < 0.01) adipose tissues. Unexpectedly, protein restriction during 14 days of pregnancy did not alter the serum profile of adiposity signals and their effects on food intake and adiposity, probably due to the short term of exposure to low-protein diet.

Predictive significance of standardized uptake value parameters of FDG-PET in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma

18F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) is widely used to diagnose and stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the predictive ability of different FDG standardized uptake values (SUVs) in 74 patients with newly diagnosed NSCLC. 18F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed and different SUV parameters (SUVmax, SUVavg, SUVT/L, and SUVT/A) obtained, and their relationship with clinical characteristics were investigated. Meanwhile, correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were performed to determine the primary predictor of SUVs for NSCLC. Age, gender, and tumor size significantly affected SUV parameters. The mean SUVs of squamous cell carcinoma were higher than those of adenocarcinoma. Poorly differentiated tumors exhibited higher SUVs than well-differentiated ones. Further analyses based on the pathologic type revealed that the SUVmax, SUVavg, and SUVT/L of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma tumors were higher than those of moderately or well-differentiated tumors. Among these four SUV parameters, SUVT/Lwas the primary predictor for tumor differentiation. However, in adenocarcinoma, SUVmax was the determining factor for tumor differentiation. Our results showed that these four SUV parameters had predictive significance related to NSCLC tumor differentiation; SUVT/L appeared to be most useful overall, but SUVmax was the best index for adenocarcinoma tumor differentiation.

Stability and predictive ability of beta

The purpose of this paper is to examine the stability and predictive abilities of the beta coefficients of individual equities in the Finnish stock market. As beta is widely used in several areas of finance, including risk management, asset pricing and performance evaluation among others, it is important to understand its characteristics and find out whether its estimates can be trusted and utilized.

Comparing Predictive Accuracy of Real Estate Pricing Models: An Applied Study for the City of Montreal.

Rapport de recherche

Strings of congruent primes in short intervals

Soit $p_1 = 2, p_2 = 3, p_3 = 5,\ldots$ la suite des nombres premiers, et soient $q \ge 3$ et $a$ des entiers premiers entre eux. R\'ecemment, Daniel Shiu a d\'emontr\'e une ancienne conjecture de Sarvadaman Chowla. Ce dernier a conjectur\'e qu'il existe une infinit\'e de couples $p_n,p_{n+1}$ de premiers cons\'ecutifs tels que $p_n \equiv p_{n+1} \equiv a \bmod q$. Fixons $\epsilon > 0$. Une r\'ecente perc\'ee majeure, de Daniel Goldston, J\`anos Pintz et Cem Y{\i}ld{\i}r{\i}m, a \'et\'e de d\'emontrer qu'il existe une suite de nombres r\'eels $x$ tendant vers l'infini, tels que l'intervalle $(x,x+\epsilon\log x]$ contienne au moins deux nombres premiers $\equiv a \bmod q$. \'Etant donn\'e un couple de nombres premiers $\equiv a \bmod q$ dans un tel intervalle, il pourrait exister un nombre premier compris entre les deux qui n'est pas $\equiv a \bmod q$. On peut d\'eduire que soit il existe une suite de r\'eels $x$ tendant vers l'infini, telle que $(x,x+\epsilon\log x]$ contienne un triplet $p_n,p_{n+1},p_{n+2}$ de nombres premiers cons\'ecutifs, soit il existe une suite de r\'eels $x$, tendant vers l'infini telle que l'intervalle $(x,x+\epsilon\log x]$ contienne un couple $p_n,p_{n+1}$ de nombres premiers tel que $p_n \equiv p_{n+1} \equiv a \bmod q$. On pense que les deux \'enonc\'es sont vrais, toutefois on peut seulement d\'eduire que l'un d'entre eux est vrai, sans savoir lequel. Dans la premi\`ere partie de cette th\`ese, nous d\'emontrons que le deuxi\`eme \'enonc\'e est vrai, ce qui fournit une nouvelle d\'emonstration de la conjecture de Chowla. La preuve combine des id\'ees de Shiu et de Goldston-Pintz-Y{\i}ld{\i}r{\i}m, donc on peut consid\'erer que ce r\'esultat est une application de leurs m\'thodes. Ensuite, nous fournirons des bornes inf\'erieures pour le nombre de couples $p_n,p_{n+1}$ tels que $p_n \equiv p_{n+1} \equiv a \bmod q$, $p_{n+1} - p_n < \epsilon\log p_n$, avec $p_{n+1} \le Y$. Sous l'hypoth\`ese que $\theta$, le \og niveau de distribution \fg{} des nombres premiers, est plus grand que $1/2$, Goldston-Pintz-Y{\i}ld{\i}r{\i}m ont r\'eussi \`a d\'emontrer que $p_{n+1} - p_n \ll_{\theta} 1$ pour une infinit\'e de couples $p_n,p_{n+1}$. Sous la meme hypoth\`ese, nous d\'emontrerons que $p_{n+1} - p_n \ll_{q,\theta} 1$ et $p_n \equiv p_{n+1} \equiv a \bmod q$ pour une infinit\'e de couples $p_n,p_{n+1}$, et nous prouverons \'egalement un r\'esultat quantitatif. Dans la deuxi\`eme partie, nous allons utiliser les techniques de Goldston-Pintz-Y{\i}ld{\i}r{\i}m pour d\'emontrer qu'il existe une infinit\'e de couples de nombres premiers $p,p'$ tels que $(p-1)(p'-1)$ est une carr\'e parfait. Ce resultat est une version approximative d'une ancienne conjecture qui stipule qu'il existe une infinit\'e de nombres premiers $p$ tels que $p-1$ est une carr\'e parfait. En effet, nous d\'emontrerons une borne inf\'erieure sur le nombre d'entiers naturels $n \le Y$ tels que $n = \ell_1\cdots \ell_r$, avec $\ell_1,\ldots,\ell_r$ des premiers distincts, et tels que $(\ell_1-1)\cdots (\ell_r-1)$ est une puissance $r$-i\`eme, avec $r \ge 2$ quelconque. \'Egalement, nous d\'emontrerons une borne inf\'erieure sur le nombre d'entiers naturels $n = \ell_1\cdots \ell_r \le Y$ tels que $(\ell_1+1)\cdots (\ell_r+1)$ est une puissance $r$-i\`eme. Finalement, \'etant donn\'e $A$ un ensemble fini d'entiers non-nuls, nous d\'emontrerons une borne inf\'erieure sur le nombre d'entiers naturels $n \le Y$ tels que $\prod_{p \mid n} (p+a)$ est une puissance $r$-i\`eme, simultan\'ement pour chaque $a \in A$.

O6-Methylguanine-DNA-Methyltransferase methylation: prevalence and predictive value in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Introduction: Le gène O6-méthylguanine-ADN méthyltransferase (MGMT) code pour une enzyme spécifique réparatrice de l’ADN qui protège les cellules de la toxicité des agents alkylants. Ainsi, l’activité du MGMT est un mécanisme majeur de résistance aux agents alkylants. Il a été démontré qu’une diminution de l’expression du gène MGMT par une hyperméthylation du promoteur résulte en une amélioration de la survie chez les patients avec certains types de tumeurs qui sont traitées avec des agents chimiothérapeuthique alkylants. Objectifs: Déterminer la prévalence de la méthylation du gène MGMT chez des patients avec des cancers épidermoïdes localement avancés de la sphère ORL traités avec chimioradiothérapie et évaluer l’impact de cette méthylation sur la survie. Méthodes: Sur 428 patients consécutifs, traités avec chimioradiothérapie à notre institution et suivis pour un période médiane de 37 mois, 199 spécimens chirurgicaux paraffinés ont été récupérés. L’ADN était extrait et modifié par le traitement au bisulfite. Une réaction en chaîne de la polymérase, spécifique à la méthylation était entreprise pour évaluer l’état de méthylation du promoteur du gène du MGMT. Les résultats de laboratoire étaient corrélés avec la réponse clinique. L’analyse statistique était exécutée à l’aide du test de Fisher pour les données catégoriques et à l’aide des courbes de Kaplan-Meier pour les échecs au traitement. Résultats : Des 199 extraits d’ADN initiaux, 173 (87%) étaient modifiés au bisulfite avec succès. Des ces spécimens modifiés, 71 (41%) ont démontré une hyperméthylation du MGMT. Pour les cas de méthylation et nonméthylation du MGMT, les caractéristiques des patients n’étaient pas significativement différentes. Les taux de réponse étaient 71 et 73% (p=NS) respectivement. Le contrôle locorégional était respectivement 87 et 77% (p=0.26), la survie sans maladie était 80 et 60% (p=0.38), la survie sans métastase à distance était 92 et 78% (p=0.08) et la survie globale était 64 et 62% (p=0.99) à 3 ans. Conclusions : L’état de méthylation du MGMT est fortement prévalent (41%) et semble avoir un possible impact bénéfique sur la survie quand la chimioradiothérapie est administrée aux patients avec des stades avancés de cancers tête et cou.