Filling the gap: open economy considerations for more reliable potential output estimates. Bruegel Working Paper 2015/11, October 2015

This paper argues that the Phillips curve relationship is not sufficient to trace back the output gap, because the effect of excess demand is not symmetric across tradeable and non-tradeable sectors. In the non-tradeable sector, excess demand creates excess employment and inflation via the Phillips curve, while in the tradeable sector much of the excess demand is absorbed by the trade balance. We set up an unobserved-components model including both a Phillips curve and a current account equation to estimate ‘sustainable output’ for 45 countries. Our estimates for many countries differ substantially from the potential output estimates of the European Commission, IMF and OECD. We assemble a comprehensive real-time dataset to estimate our model on data which was available in each year from 2004-15. Our model was able to identify correctly the sign of pre-crisis output gaps using real time data for countries such as the United States, Spain and Ireland, in contrast to the estimates of the three institutions, which estimated negative output gaps real-time, while their current estimates for the pre-crisis period suggest positive gaps. In the past five years the annual output gap estimate revisions of our model, the European Commission, IMF, OECD and the Hodrick-Prescott filter were broadly similar in the range of 0.5-1.0 percent of GDP for advanced countries. Such large revisions are worrisome, because the European fiscal framework can translate the imprecision in output gap estimates into poorly grounded fiscal policymaking in the EU.

What role for social investment in the new economic governance of the Eurozone? EPC Policy Brief, 10 November 2015

The EU, and the Eurozone in particular, has been going through a period of prolonged economic difficulty. While there are some signs of recovery, growth rates remain too low, only returning to the already modest growth rates of the pre-crisis period. This not only affects the creation of jobs, but also, through lower tax revenues and stagnant GDP levels, the consolidation of public finances.

Desempenho de longo prazo de IPOs no Brasil: um estudo para o período de 2004 a 2015

O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar o desempenho de longo prazo das empresas que abrem o capital no Brasil. Os fenômenos de (1) valorização no primeiro dia de negócios pós-IPO (underpricing) seguido de (2) desempenho inferior ao mercado no longo prazo (long-run underperformance) foram amplamente documentados em trabalhos de outros autores. O foco do estudo está em verificar a persistência dessa baixa performance quando alongamos o período de avaliação para 5 anos. Adicionalmente, o estudo pretende entender que fatores são determinantes no desempenho destas ações no longo prazo. O trabalho analisa 128 IPOs ocorridos no período de 2004 a 2012 na Bovespa. Os resultados apontam para evidências estatisticamente significantes de underpricing. Este underpricing foi mais acentuado entre os anos de 2004 a 2008, período precursor da crise financeira do subprime. Quando se analisa a performance de longo prazo os resultados apontam que a carteira de IPOs apresentou performance abaixo do mercado até o 29° mês. Os IPOs lançados no período pré-crise do subprime tiveram performance abaixo do mercado após 3 anos, enquanto que os IPOs lançados no pós-crise tiveram retorno acima do mercado para 3 e 5 anos. Não foi identificada a persistência da baixa performance dos IPOs além do 29° mês. Três variáveis principais mostraram significância na explicação dos retornos de longo prazo: (1) o período de lançamento das ações, (2) o percentual de alocação de investidores estrangeiros, (3) e a reputação do coordenador da oferta. Os IPOs lançados no período pós-crise do subprime observaram melhor performance no longo prazo. Também apresentaram melhor performance os IPOs com maior presença de investidor estrangeiro. Adicionalmente, existe uma relação inversa entre a reputação do coordenador líder da oferta e a performance de longo prazo.

Tropical climate and vegetation simulations during the Heinrich event 1 using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) - the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM)

Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under a glacial climate background.

Evaluation of a Quality Improvement Intervention for Anesthetic Management of Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients Undergoing Endovascular Therapy

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Life history parameters and biocontrol potential of the mealybug parasitoid Coccidoxenoides peregrinus (Timberlake) (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae): Asexuality, fecundity and ovipositional patterns

Properties relevant to the ovipositional activity and lifetime productivity of Coccidoxenoides peregrinus (Timberlake) were assessed in the laboratory, to determine the potential of this species as a biocontrol agent against the citrus mealybug, Planococcus citri (Risso). In general, this species has not performed well in orchards, except for a few localities on different continents. The mode of reproduction of C peregrinus is almost entirely thelytokous, with males produced sporadically and at low frequency. The females have both pro-ovigenic and synovigenic traits, which raises questions of the utility of this distinction. The females have a high reproductive potential with 10-20 eggs per day available within the first two days (after a short (12 h) pre-oviposition period), and 80-150 eggs per day thereafter until death at about eight days. Mean lifetime fecundity was 239.2 +/- 34.3 eggs. C peregrinus oviposits across a range of P. citri instars, but productivity relies predominantly on second instar hosts. Second stage (N2) hosts received most eggs in choice (about 52%) and no-choice (about 50%) tests. Most eggs deposited into N2 hosts (82%) reached adult stage whereas only a few of those deposited into N1 and N3 (about 5% each) developed successfully. The haemolymph of parasitised reproductive mealybugs contained granular structures and no parasitoid eggs were found 24 h after exposure to ovipositing wasps. Also, no wasps emerged from parasitised adult hosts that were kept alive. Parasitoid eggs deposited into adult hosts were presumed encapsulated and destroyed, as control mealybugs (not exposed to female wasps) had no granular structures in their haemolymph. Wasps exposed to an abundance of hosts soon started ovipositing, but only for a relatively short time each day (about 2.5 h out of a 7 h exposure). They stopped ovipositing despite eggs judged to be mature in their ovaries. The reproductive output of C peregrinus is discussed in relation to the ecological factors that could influence this output, and the implications for biocontrol are discussed. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A VIOLÊNCIA CONTRA AS MULHERES NA VIDA COTIDIANA Um estudo do Livro da Aliança a partir de Êxodo 20,22-23,19

O espaço social subjacente à unidade literária de Êxodo 20,22-23,19 pressupõe uma sociedade agrária. Aparentemente é monótona, marcada por inúmeros conflitos sociais. O contexto social é de empobrecimento das famílias clânico-tribais israelitas. A nova economia se organiza em torno do santuário. Na pesquisa, há bastante consenso quanto à origem desta unidade literária conhecida como Livro da Aliança. É literatura jurídica de caráter religioso. Uma prescrição jurídica não precede as condições da realidade a que vai se referir, mas prescreve sobre as condições e situações já existentes. Na pesquisa clássica atual, encontram-se duas grandes correntes sobre a origem e a época desta literatura. Uma defende que o Livro da Aliança remonta à época pré-estatal, passagem do tribalismo para a monarquia; a outra argumenta que o Livro da Aliança, enquanto corpus codificado de leis, é um produto tardio , possivelmente surgido no final do século VIII ou início do século VII a.C. O Livro da Aliança é a base literária da presente pesquisa. Quanto à origem e à época do Livro da Aliança, sigo a corrente que defende ser o texto da época final do período tribal, anterior à monarquia. Esta época foi marcada por grandes mudanças econômicas: passagem de uma economia solidária de subsistência para uma economia de concentração do produto. A tese consiste em analisar a violência contra as mulheres, estruturada no discurso jurídico do Livro da Aliança. Busca-se desvendar os mecanismos que justificam e naturalizam as práticas de violência. O destaque é a violência contra as mulheres escravas, contra as filhas e, de modo especial, enfatizo as violências contra as mulheres feiticeiras. Evidencio três categorias de escravas prescritas no texto: as escravas domésticas, que sofrem violências físicas, podendo chegar até à morte debaixo do castigo da vara; as escravas temporárias, que têm seus olhos destruídos e os seus dentes quebrados; e as filhas que são vendidas como escravas. Sua sexualidade é transformada em mercadoria. Há filhas que são seduzidas, violadas e submetidas como mulher ao seu estuprador. O único grupo social descrito a partir da sua função pública são as feiticeiras. As violências são institucionais e sexistas. O patriarcado é o princípio organizador da sociedade. A característica do Livro da Aliança é marcadamente androcêntrica.(AU)

Do external funds yield lower returns? Recent evidence from East Asian economies

One of the central explanations of the recent Asian Crisis has been the problem of moral hazard as the source of over-investment and excessive external borrowing. There is however rather limited firm-level empirical evidence to characterise inefficient use of internal and external finances. Using a large firm-level panel data-set from four badly affected Asian countries, this paper compares the rates of return to various internal and external funds among firms with low and high debt financing (relative to equity) among financially constrained and other firms. Selectivity-corrected estimates obtained from random effects panel data model do suggest evidence of significantly lower rates of return to long-term debt, even among firms relying more on debt relative to equity in our sample. There is also evidence that average effective interest rates often significantly exceeded the average returns to long-term debt in the sample countries in the pre-crisis period. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dispensing activity in a community pharmacy-based repeat dispensing pilot project

Objective: To measure changes in dispensing activity in a UK repeat dispensing pilot study and to estimate any associated cost savings. Method: Patients were provided with two successive three-monthly repeat prescriptions containing all of the items on their "repeat medicines list" and valid at a study pharmacy. Pharmacists consulted with patients at the time of supply and completed a patient-monitoring form. Prescriptions with pricing data were returned by the UK Prescription Pricing Authority. These data were used to calculate dispensing activity, the cost of dispensed items and an estimate of cost savings on non-dispensed items. A retrospective identification of items prescribed during the six months prior to the project was used to provide a comparison with those dispensed during the project and thus a more realistic estimate of changes. Setting: 350 patients from two medical practices in a large English City, with inner city and suburban locations, and served by seven pharmacies. Key findings: There were methodological challenges in establishing a robust framework for calculating changes. Based on all of the items that patients could have obtained from their repeat list, 23.8% were not dispensed during the intervention period. A correction was then made to allow for a comparison with usage in the six months prior to the study. Based on the corrected data, there was an estimated 11.3% savings in drug costs compared with the pre-intervention period. There was a marked difference in changes between the two practices, the pharmacies and individual patients. The capitation-based remuneration method was acceptable to all but one of the community pharmacists. Conclusion: The repeat dispensing system reduced dispensing volume in comparison with the control period. A repeat dispensing system with a focus on patients' needs and their use of medicines might be cost neutral.

Price synchronicity:the closing call auction and the London Stock Market

In this paper, we consider the impact of the introduction of a closing call auction on market quality of the London Stock Exchange. We employ the market model, RDD and MEC metrics of market quality. These signify substantial improvements to market quality at both the close and open for migrating stocks.We note that these improvements are larger at the open than the close. An important contribution of our paper is that we show that changes to market quality are stronger in those securities that have the lowest liquidity in the pre-call period. In contrast, market quality changes following the introduction of a closing call auction are approximately neutral for high-liquidity securities. We conclude that the implementation of a closing call auction, for high-liquidity securities may not enhance market quality.

The effect of universal futures on opening and closing stock market price discovery

Purpose – On 29 January 2001, Euronext LIFFE introduced single security futures contracts on a range of global companies. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that the introduction of these futures contracts had on the behaviour of opening and closing UK equity returns. Design/methodology/approach – The paper models the price discovery process using the Amihud and Mendelson partial adjustment model which can be estimated using a Kalman filter. Findings – Empirical results show that during the pre-futures period both opening and closing returns under-react to new information. After the introduction of futures contracts opening returns over-react. A rise in the partial adjustment coefficient also takes place for closing returns but this is not large enough to cause over-reaction. Originality/value – This is the first study to examine the impact of a single security futures contract on the speed of spot market price discovery.

The antecedents and consequences of anticipatory identification

The aim of this thesis was to investigate anticipatory identification: newcomers’ identification with an organisation prior to entry; in particular by exploring the antecedents and consequences of the construct. Although organisational identification has been frequently investigated over the past 25 years, surprisingly little is known about what causes an individual to identify with a new organisation before entry and whether this has an impact on their relationship with the organisation after formally taking up membership. Drawing on a Social Identity approach to organisational identification, it was hypothesised that newcomers would more closely identify with an organisation prior to entry when the organisation was seen as a source of positive social identity and was situationally relevant and meaningful to the newcomer, i.e. salient, during the pre-entry period. It was also hypothesised that anticipatory identification would have post-entry consequences and would predict newcomers’ post-entry identification, turnover intentions and job satisfaction. An indirect relationship between anticipatory identification and post-entry identification through post-entry social identity judgements (termed a “feedback loop” mechanism) was additionally proposed. Finally anticipatory identification was also predicted to moderate the relationship between post-entry social identity judgements and post-entry identification (termed a “buffering” mechanism). Four studies were conducted to test these hypotheses. Study One served as a pilot study, using a retrospective self-report design with s sample of 124 university students to initially test the proposed conceptual model. Studies Two and Three adopted experimental designs. Each used a unique sample of 72 staff and students from Aston University to respectively test the hypothesised positive social identity motive and salience antecedents of anticipatory identification. Study Four explored the relationship between anticipatory identification, its antecedents and consequences longitudinally, using an organisational sample of 45 employees. Overall, these studies found support for a social identity motive antecedent of anticipatory identification, as well as more limited evidence that anticipatory identification was associated with the salience of an organisation prior to entry. Support was inconsistent for a direct relationship between anticipatory identification and post-entry identification and there was no evidence that anticipatory identification was a significant direct predictor of turnover intention and job satisfaction. Anticipatory identification was however found to act as a buffer in the relationship between post-entry social identity judgements and post-entry identification in all but one of the four samples measured. A feedback loop mechanism was observed within the experimental designs of Studies Two and Three, but not within the organisational samples of Studies One and Four. Overall the findings of these four studies highlight key ways through which anticipatory identification can develop prior to entry into an organisation. Moreover, the research observed several important post-entry consequences of anticipatory identification, indicating that an understanding of post-entry identification may be enriched by attending more closely to the extent to which newcomers identify with an organisation prior to entry.

Tracking rates of ecotone migration due to salt-water encroachment using fossil mollusks in coastal South Florida

We determined the rate of migration of coastal vegetation zones in response to salt-water encroachment through paleoecological analysis of mollusks in 36 sediment cores taken along transects perpendicular to the coast in a 5.5 km2 band of coastal wetlands in southeast Florida. Five vegetation zones, separated by distinct ecotones, included freshwater swamp forest, freshwater marsh, and dwarf, transitional and fringing mangrove forest. Vegetation composition, soil depth and organic matter content, porewater salinity and the contemporary mollusk community were determined at 226 sites to establish the salinity preferences of the mollusk fauna. Calibration models allowed accurate inference of salinity and vegetation type from fossil mollusk assemblages in chronologically calibrated sediments. Most sediments were shallow (20–130 cm) permitting coarse-scale temporal inferences for three zones: an upper peat layer (zone 1) representing the last 30–70 years, a mixed peat-marl layer (zone 2) representing the previous ca. 150–250 years and a basal section (zone 3) of ranging from 310 to 2990 YBP. Modern peat accretion rates averaged 3.1 mm yr)1 while subsurface marl accreted more slowly at 0.8 mm yr)1. Salinity and vegetation type for zone 1 show a steep gradient with freshwater communities being confined west of a north–south drainage canal constructed in 1960. Inferences for zone 2 (pre-drainage) suggest that freshwater marshes and associated forest units covered 90% of the area, with mangrove forests only present along the peripheral coastline. During the entire pre-drainage history, salinity in the entire area was maintained below a mean of 2 ppt and only small pockets of mangroves were present; currently, salinity averages 13.2 ppt and mangroves occupy 95% of the wetland. Over 3 km2 of freshwater wetland vegetation type have been lost from this basin due to salt-water encroachment, estimated from the mollusk-inferred migration rate of freshwater vegetation of 3.1 m yr)1 for the last 70 years (compared to 0.14 m yr)1 for the pre-drainage period). This rapid rate of encroachment is driven by sea-level rise and freshwater diversion. Plans for rehydrating these basins with freshwater will require high-magnitude re-diversion to counteract locally high rates of sea-level rise.

Microstructure Characteristics of U.S. Futures Markets

Prior finance literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of microstructure characteristics of U.S. futures markets due to the lack of data availability. Utilizing a unique data set for five different futures contract this dissertation fills this gap in the finance literature. In three essays price discovery, resiliency and the components of bid-ask spreads in electronic futures markets are examined. In order to provide comprehensive and robust analysis, both moderately volatile pre-crisis and volatile crisis periods are included in the analysis. The first essay entitled “Price Discovery and Liquidity Characteristics for U.S. Electronic Futures and ETF Markets” explores the price discovery process in U.S. futures and ETF markets. Hasbrouck’s information share method is applied to futures and ETF instruments. The information share results show that futures markets dominate the price discovery process. The results on the factors that affect the price discovery process show that when volatility increases, the price leadership of futures markets declines. Furthermore, when the relative size of bid-ask spread in one market increases, its information share decreases. The second essay, entitled “The Resiliency of Large Trades for U.S. Electronic Futures Markets,“ examines the effects of large trades in futures markets. How quickly prices and liquidity recovers after large trades is an important characteristic of financial markets. The price effects of large trades are greater during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Furthermore, relative to the pre-crisis period, during the crisis period it takes more trades until liquidity returns to the pre-block trade levels. The third essay, entitled “Components of Quoted Bid-Ask Spreads in U.S. Electronic Futures Markets,” investigates the bid-ask spread components in futures market. The components of bid-ask spreads is one of the most important subjects of microstructure studies. Utilizing Huang and Stoll’s (1997) method the third essay of this dissertation provides the first analysis of the components of quoted bid-ask spreads in U.S. electronic futures markets. The results show that order processing cost is the largest component of bid-ask spreads, followed by inventory holding costs. During the crisis period market makers increase bid-ask spreads due to increasing inventory holding and adverse selection risks.

Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Performance of European Acquisitions

This study looks at the impact of the recent financial crisis on the short-term performance of European acquisitions. We use institutional theory and transaction cost economic theory to study whether bidders derive lower or higher returns from acquisitions announced after 2008. We investigate shareholders’ stock price reaction to 2245 deals which occurred during 2004–12 across 22 European Union countries. Our results from both univariate and multivariate analysis show that the deals announced in the post-crisis period, corresponding to the period of economic recession, generate higher returns to shareholders as compared to acquisitions announced in the pre-crisis period. We also test the relevance of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), that is, the Eurozone, to this value accrual during the recessionary period. We observe that non-EMU transactions obtain significantly higher gains vis-à-vis EMU transactions in the post-crisis years. Overall, announcement returns of European acquisitions have been affected by the financial crisis and the global recession; and companies that target countries with different currency regimes are likely to generate better returns from their acquisitions.