Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Wind power generation differs from conventional thermal generation due to the stochastic nature of wind. Thus wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of balancing supply and demand in any electricity system, given the uncertainty associated with the wind farm power output. Accurate wind power forecasting reduces the need for additional balancing energy and reserve power to integrate wind power. Wind power forecasting tools enable better dispatch, scheduling and unit commitment of thermal generators, hydro plant and energy storage plant and more competitive market trading as wind power ramps up and down on the grid. This paper presents an in-depth review of the current methods and advances in wind power forecasting and prediction. Firstly, numerical wind prediction methods from global to local scales, ensemble forecasting, upscaling and downscaling processes are discussed. Next the statistical and machine learning approach methods are detailed. Then the techniques used for benchmarking and uncertainty analysis of forecasts are overviewed, and the performance of various approaches over different forecast time horizons is examined. Finally, current research activities, challenges and potential future developments are appraised.

Oxidation-reduction potential and its influence on Cheddar cheese quality

Oxidation-reduction (redox) potential is a fundamental physicochemical parameter that affects the growth of microorganisms in dairy products and contributes to a balanced flavour development in cheese. Even though redox potential has an important impact on the quality of dairy products, it is not usually monitored in dairy industry. The aims of this thesis were to develop practical methods for measuring redox potential in cheese, to provide detailed information on changes in redox potential during the cheesemaking and cheese ripening and how this parameter is influenced by starter systems and to understand the relationship between redox potential and cheese quality. Methods were developed for monitoring redox potential during cheesemaking and early in ripening. Changes in redox potential during laboratory scale manufacture of Cheddar, Gouda, Emmental, and Camembert cheeses were determined. Distinctive kinetics of reduction in redox potential during cheesemakings were observed, and depended on the cheese technology and starter culture utilised. Redox potential was also measured early in ripening by embedding electrodes into Cheddar cheese at moulding together with the salted curd pieces. Using this approach it was possible to monitor redox potential during the pressing stage. The redox potential of Emmental cheese was also monitored during ripening. Moreover, since bacterial growth drives the reduction in redox potential during cheese manufacture and ripening, the ability of Lactococcus lactis strains to affect redox potential was studied. Redox potential of a Cheddar cheese extract was altered by bacterial growth and there were strain-specific differences in the nature of the redox potential/time curves obtained. Besides, strategies to control redox potential during cheesemaking and ripening were developed. Oxidizing or reducing agents were added to the salted curd before pressing and results confirmed that a negative redox potential is essential for the development of sulfur compounds in Cheddar cheese. Overall, the studies described in this thesis gave an evidence of the importance of the redox potential on the quality of dairy products. Redox potential could become an additional parameter used to select microorganisms candidate as starters in fermented dairy products. Moreover, it has been demonstrated that the redox potential influences the development of flavour component. Thus, measuring continuously changes in redox potential of a product and controlling, and adjusting if necessary, the redox potential values during manufacture and ripening could be important in the future of the dairy industry.

Evaluation of tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival, and time to progression as potential surrogate end points in metastatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Overall survival (OS) can be observed only after prolonged follow-up, and any potential effect of first-line therapies on OS may be confounded by the effects of subsequent therapy. We investigated whether tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival (PFS), or time to progression (TTP) could be considered a valid surrogate for OS to assess the benefits of first-line therapies for patients with metastatic breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were collected on 3,953 patients in 11 randomized trials that compared an anthracycline (alone or in combination) with a taxane (alone or in combination with an anthracycline). Surrogacy was assessed through the correlation between the end points as well as through the correlation between the treatment effects on the end points. RESULTS: Tumor response (survival odds ratio [OR], 6.2; 95% CI, 5.3 to 7.0) and disease control (survival OR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.8 to 6.3) were strongly associated with OS. PFS (rank correlation coefficient, 0.688; 95% CI, 0.686 to 0.690) and TTP (rank correlation coefficient, 0.682; 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.684) were moderately associated with OS. Response log ORs were strongly correlated with PFS log hazard ratios (linear coefficient [rho], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.19). Response and disease control log ORs and PFS and TTP log hazard ratios were poorly correlated with log hazard ratios for OS, but the confidence limits of rho were too wide to be informative. CONCLUSION: No end point could be demonstrated as a good surrogate for OS in these trials. Tumor response may be an acceptable surrogate for PFS.

Finite size effects in the presence of a chemical potential: A study in the classical nonlinear O(2) sigma model

In the presence of a chemical potential, the physics of level crossings leads to singularities at zero temperature, even when the spatial volume is finite. These singularities are smoothed out at a finite temperature but leave behind nontrivial finite size effects which must be understood in order to extract thermodynamic quantities using Monte Carlo methods, particularly close to critical points. We illustrate some of these issues using the classical nonlinear O(2) sigma model with a coupling β and chemical potential μ on a 2+1-dimensional Euclidean lattice. In the conventional formulation this model suffers from a sign problem at nonzero chemical potential and hence cannot be studied with the Wolff cluster algorithm. However, when formulated in terms of the worldline of particles, the sign problem is absent, and the model can be studied efficiently with the "worm algorithm." Using this method we study the finite size effects that arise due to the chemical potential and develop an effective quantum mechanical approach to capture the effects. As a side result we obtain energy levels of up to four particles as a function of the box size and uncover a part of the phase diagram in the (β,μ) plane. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Autonomic cardiovascular dysregulation as a potential mechanism underlying depression and coronary artery bypass grafting surgery outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is often used to treat patients with significant coronary heart disease (CHD). To date, multiple longitudinal and cross-sectional studies have examined the association between depression and CABG outcomes. Although this relationship is well established, the mechanism underlying this relationship remains unclear. The purpose of this study was twofold. First, we compared three markers of autonomic nervous system (ANS) function in four groups of patients: 1) Patients with coronary heart disease and depression (CHD/Dep), 2) Patients without CHD but with depression (NonCHD/Dep), 3) Patients with CHD but without depression (CHD/NonDep), and 4) Patients without CHD and depression (NonCHD/NonDep). Second, we investigated the impact of depression and autonomic nervous system activity on CABG outcomes. METHODS: Patients were screened to determine whether they met some of the study's inclusion or exclusion criteria. ANS function (i.e., heart rate, heart rate variability, and plasma norepinephrine levels) were measured. Chi-square and one-way analysis of variance were performed to evaluate group differences across demographic, medical variables, and indicators of ANS function. Logistic regression and multiple regression analyses were used to assess impact of depression and autonomic nervous system activity on CABG outcomes. RESULTS: The results of the study provide some support to suggest that depressed patients with CHD have greater ANS dysregulation compared to those with only CHD or depression. Furthermore, independent predictors of in-hospital length of stay and non-routine discharge included having a diagnosis of depression and CHD, elevated heart rate, and low heart rate variability. CONCLUSIONS: The current study presents evidence to support the hypothesis that ANS dysregulation might be one of the underlying mechanisms that links depression to cardiovascular CABG surgery outcomes. Thus, future studies should focus on developing and testing interventions that targets modifying ANS dysregulation, which may lead to improved patient outcomes.

Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Diet-induced obesity alters the differentiation potential of stem cells isolated from bone marrow, adipose tissue and infrapatellar fat pad: the effects of free fatty acids.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is a major risk factor for several musculoskeletal conditions that are characterized by an imbalance of tissue remodeling. Adult stem cells are closely associated with the remodeling and potential repair of several mesodermally derived tissues such as fat, bone and cartilage. We hypothesized that obesity would alter the frequency, proliferation, multipotency and immunophenotype of adult stem cells from a variety of tissues. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), subcutaneous adipose-derived stem cells (sqASCs) and infrapatellar fat pad-derived stem cells (IFP cells) were isolated from lean and high-fat diet-induced obese mice, and their cellular properties were examined. To test the hypothesis that changes in stem cell properties were due to the increased systemic levels of free fatty acids (FFAs), we further investigated the effects of FFAs on lean stem cells in vitro. RESULTS: Obese mice showed a trend toward increased prevalence of MSCs and sqASCs in the stromal tissues. While no significant differences in cell proliferation were observed in vitro, the differentiation potential of all types of stem cells was altered by obesity. MSCs from obese mice demonstrated decreased adipogenic, osteogenic and chondrogenic potential. Obese sqASCs and IFP cells showed increased adipogenic and osteogenic differentiation, but decreased chondrogenic ability. Obese MSCs also showed decreased CD105 and increased platelet-derived growth factor receptor α expression, consistent with decreased chondrogenic potential. FFA treatment of lean stem cells significantly altered their multipotency but did not completely recapitulate the properties of obese stem cells. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the hypothesis that obesity alters the properties of adult stem cells in a manner that depends on the cell source. These effects may be regulated in part by increased levels of FFAs, but may involve other obesity-associated cytokines. These findings contribute to our understanding of mesenchymal tissue remodeling with obesity, as well as the development of autologous stem cell therapies for obese patients.

The steady-state visual evoked potential in vision research: A review.

Periodic visual stimulation and analysis of the resulting steady-state visual evoked potentials were first introduced over 80 years ago as a means to study visual sensation and perception. From the first single-channel recording of responses to modulated light to the present use of sophisticated digital displays composed of complex visual stimuli and high-density recording arrays, steady-state methods have been applied in a broad range of scientific and applied settings.The purpose of this article is to describe the fundamental stimulation paradigms for steady-state visual evoked potentials and to illustrate these principles through research findings across a range of applications in vision science.

Health coaching for glaucoma care: a pilot study using mixed methods.

INTRODUCTION: Adherence to glaucoma medications is essential for successful treatment of the disease but is complex and difficult for many of our patients. Health coaching has been used successfully in the treatment of other chronic diseases. This pilot study explores the use of health coaching for glaucoma care. METHODS: A mixed methods study design was used to assess the health coaching intervention for glaucoma patients. The health coaching intervention consisted of four to six health coaching sessions with a certified health coach via telephone. Quantitative measures included demographic and health information, adherence to glaucoma medications (using the visual analog adherence scale and medication event monitoring system), and an exit survey rating the experience. Qualitative measures included a precoaching health questionnaire, notes made by the coach during the intervention, and an exit interview with the subjects at the end of the study. RESULTS: Four glaucoma patients participated in the study; all derived benefits from the health coaching. Study subjects demonstrated increased glaucoma drop adherence in response to the coaching intervention, in both visual analog scale and medication event monitoring system. Study subjects' qualitative feedback reflected a perceived improvement in both eye and general health self-care. The subjects stated that they would recommend health coaching to friends or family members. CONCLUSION: Health coaching was helpful to the glaucoma patients in this study; it has the potential to improve glaucoma care and overall health.

The food multimix concept: potential of an innovative food based approach on nutritional status in pregnant women in resource-poor communities

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVES: The food multimix (FFM)concept states that limited food resources can be combined using scientific knowledge to meet nutrient needs of vulnerable groups at low cost utilizing the ‘nutrient strengths’ of individual or candidate foods in composite recipes within a cultural context. METHODS: The method employed the food-to-food approach for recipe development using traditional food ingredients. Recipes were subjected to proximate and micronutrient analysis and optimized to meet at tleast 40% of recommended daily intakes. End products including breads, porridge and soup were developed. RESULTS: FMM products were employed in a feeding trial among 120 healthy pregnant women in Gauteng, South Africa resulting in improvements in serum iron levels from baseline values of 14.59 (=/-7.67) umol/L and 14.02 (=/-8.13) umol/L for control and intervention groups (p=0.71), to 16.03 (=/-5.67) umol/L and 18.66 (=/-9.41) umol/L (p=0.19). The increases from baseline to post-intervention were however statistically significant within groups. Similarly Mean Cell Volume values improved from baseline as well as serum ferritin and transferritin levels. CONCLUSION: The FMM concept has potential value in feeding programs for vulnerable groups including pregnant and lactating mothers.

Development and mechanical characterization of solvent-cast polymeric films as potential drug delivery systems to mucosal surfaces

Solvent-cast films from three polymers, carboxymethylcellulose (CMC), sodium alginate (SA), and xanthan gum, were prepared by drying the polymeric gels in air. Three methods, (a) passive hydration, (b) vortex hydration with heating, and (c) cold hydration, were investigated to determine the most effective means of preparing gels for each of the three polymers. Different drying conditions [relative humidity - RH (6-52%) and temperature (3-45 degrees C)] were investigated to determine the effect of drying rate on the films prepared by drying the polymeric gels. The tensile properties of the CMC films were determined by stretching dumbbell-shaped films to breaking point, using a Texture Analyser. Glycerol was used as a plasticizer, and its effects on the drying rate, physical appearance, and tensile properties of the resulting films were investigated. Vortex hydration with heating was the method of choice for preparing gels of SA and CMC, and cold hydration for xanthan gels. Drying rates increased with low glycerol content, high temperature, and low relative humidity. The residual water content of the films increased with increasing glycerol content and high relative humidity and decreased at higher temperatures. Generally, temperature affected the drying rate to a greater extent than relative humidity. Glycerol significantly affected the toughness (increased) and rigidity (decreased) of CMC films. CMC films prepared at 45 degrees C and 6% RH produced suitable films at the fastest rate while films containing equal quantities of glycerol and CMC possessed an ideal balance between flexibility and rigidity.

Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems

Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

Assessing the potential of autonomous submarine gliders for ecosystem monitoring across multiple trophic levels (plankton to cetaceans) in shallow shelf seas

A combination of scientific, economic, technological and policy drivers is behind a recent upsurge in the use of marine autonomous systems (and accompanying miniaturized sensors) for environmental mapping and monitoring. Increased spatial–temporal resolution and coverage of data, at reduced cost, is particularly vital for effective spatial management of highly dynamic and heterogeneous shelf environments. This proof-of-concept study involves integration of a novel combination of sensors onto buoyancy-driven submarine gliders, in order to assess their suitability for ecosystem monitoring in shelf waters at a variety of trophic levels. Two shallow-water Slocum gliders were equipped with CTD and fluorometer to measure physical properties and chlorophyll, respectively. One glider was also equipped with a single-frequency echosounder to collect information on zooplankton and fish distribution. The other glider carried a Passive Acoustic Monitoring system to detect and record cetacean vocalizations, and a passive sampler to detect chemical contaminants in the water column. The two gliders were deployed together off southwest UK in autumn 2013, and targeted a known tidal-mixing front west of the Isles of Scilly. The gliders’ mission took about 40 days, with each glider travelling distances of >1000 km and undertaking >2500 dives to depths of up to 100 m. Controlling glider flight and alignment of the two glider trajectories proved to be particularly challenging due to strong tidal flows. However, the gliders continued to collect data in poor weather when an accompanying research vessel was unable to operate. In addition, all glider sensors generated useful data, with particularly interesting initial results relating to subsurface chlorophyll maxima and numerous fish/cetacean detections within the water column. The broader implications of this study for marine ecosystem monitoring with submarine gliders are discussed.

Assessing the potential of autonomous submarine gliders for ecosystem monitoring across multiple trophic levels (plankton to cetaceans) in shallow shelf seas

A combination of scientific, economic, technological and policy drivers is behind a recent upsurge in the use of marine autonomous systems (and accompanying miniaturized sensors) for environmental mapping and monitoring. Increased spatial–temporal resolution and coverage of data, at reduced cost, is particularly vital for effective spatial management of highly dynamic and heterogeneous shelf environments. This proof-of-concept study involves integration of a novel combination of sensors onto buoyancy-driven submarine gliders, in order to assess their suitability for ecosystem monitoring in shelf waters at a variety of trophic levels. Two shallow-water Slocum gliders were equipped with CTD and fluorometer to measure physical properties and chlorophyll, respectively. One glider was also equipped with a single-frequency echosounder to collect information on zooplankton and fish distribution. The other glider carried a Passive Acoustic Monitoring system to detect and record cetacean vocalizations, and a passive sampler to detect chemical contaminants in the water column. The two gliders were deployed together off southwest UK in autumn 2013, and targeted a known tidal-mixing front west of the Isles of Scilly. The gliders’ mission took about 40 days, with each glider travelling distances of >1000 km and undertaking >2500 dives to depths of up to 100 m. Controlling glider flight and alignment of the two glider trajectories proved to be particularly challenging due to strong tidal flows. However, the gliders continued to collect data in poor weather when an accompanying research vessel was unable to operate. In addition, all glider sensors generated useful data, with particularly interesting initial results relating to subsurface chlorophyll maxima and numerous fish/cetacean detections within the water column. The broader implications of this study for marine ecosystem monitoring with submarine gliders are discussed.

Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases: 1. Preliminary consultation with experts within five groups (plants, terrestrial invertebrates, freshwater invertebrates, vertebrates and marine species) to derive ranked lists of potential IAS. 2. Consensus-building across expert groups to compile and rank the entire list of potential IAS. Five hundred and ninety-one species not native to Great Britain were considered. Ninety-three of these species were agreed to constitute at least a medium risk (based on score and consensus) with respect to them arriving, establishing and posing a threat to native biodiversity. The quagga mussel, Dreissena rostriformis bugensis, received maximum scores for risk of arrival, establishment and impact; following discussions the unanimous consensus was to rank it in the top position. A further 29 species were considered to constitute a high risk and were grouped according to their ranked risk. The remaining 63 species were considered as medium risk, and included in an unranked long list. The information collated through this novel extension of the consensus method for horizon scanning provides evidence for underpinning and prioritizing management both for the species and, perhaps more importantly, their pathways of arrival. Although our study focused on Great Britain, we suggest that the methods adopted are applicable globally.