Technological-forecasting and research inputs in area of birth-control technology

Technological forecasting, defined as quantified probabilistic prediction of timings and degree of change in the technological parameters, capabilities desirability or needs at different times in the future, is applied to birth control technology (BCT) as a means of revealing the paths of most promising research through identifying the necessary points for breakthroughs. The present status of BCT in the areas of pills and the IUD, male contraceptives, immumological approaches, post-coital pills, abortion, sterilization, luteolytic agents, laser technologies, and control of the sex of the child, are each summarized and evaluated in turn. Fine mapping is done to identify the most potentially promising areas of BCT. These include efforts to make oral contraception easier, improvement of the design of the IUD, clinical evaluation of the male contraceptive danazol, the effecting of biochemical changes in the seminal fluid, and researching of immunological approaches and the effects of other new drugs such as prostaglandins. The areas that require immediate and large research inputs are oral contraception and the IUD. On the basis of population and technological forecasts, it is deduced that research efforts could most effectively aid countries like India through the immediate production of an oral contraceptive pill or IUD with long-lasting effects. Development of a pill for males or an immunization against pre gnancy would also have a significant impact. However, the major impediment to birth control programs to date is attitudes, which must be changed through education.

Ecological impacts of Phlebiopsis gigantea biocontrol treatment against Heterobasidion spp. as revealed by fungal community profiling and population analyses

Wood decay fungi belonging to the species complex Heterobasidion annosum sensu lato are among the most common and economically important species causing root rot and stem decay in conifers of the northern temperate regions. New infections by these pathogens can be suppressed by tree stump treatments using chemical or biological control agents. In Finland, the corticiaceous fungus Phlebiopsis gigantea has been formulated into a commercial biocontrol agent called Rotstop (Verdera Ltd.). This thesis addresses the ecological impacts of Rotstop biocontrol treatment on the mycoflora of conifer stumps. Locally, fungal communities within Rotstop-treated and untreated stumps were analyzed using a novel method based on DGGE profiling of small subunit ribosomal DNA fragments amplified directly from wood samples. Population analyses for P. gigantea and H. annosum s.l. were conducted to evaluate possible risks associated with local and/or global distribution of the Rotstop strain. Based on molecular community profiling by DGGE, we detected a few individual wood-inhabiting fungal species (OTUs) that seemed to have suffered or benefited from the Rotstop biocontrol treatment. The DGGE analyses also revealed fungal diversity not retrieved by cultivation and some fungal sequence types untypical for decomposing conifer wood. However, statistical analysis of DGGE community profiles obtained from Rotstop-treated and untreated conifer stumps revealed that the Rotstop treatment had not caused a statistically significant reduction in the species diversity of wood-inhabiting fungi within our experimental forest plots. Locally, ISSR genotyping of cultured P. gigantea strains showed that the Rotstop biocontrol strain was capable of surviving up to six years within treated Norway spruce stumps, while in Scots pine stumps it was sooner replaced by successor fungal species. In addition, the spread of resident P. gigantea strains into Rotstop-treated forest stands seemed effective in preventing the formation of genetically monomorphic populations in the short run. On a global scale, we detected a considerable level of genetic differentiation between the interfertile European and North American populations of P. gigantea. These results strongly suggest that local biocontrol strains should be used in order to prevent global spread of P. gigantea and hybrid formation between geographically isolated populations. The population analysis for H. annosum s.l. revealed a collection of Chinese fungal strains that showed a high degree of laboratory fertility with three different allopatric H. annosum s.l. taxa. However, based on the molecular markers, the Chinese strains could be clearly affiliated with the H. parviporum taxonomical cluster, which thus appears to have a continuous distribution range from Europe through southern Siberia to northern China. Keywords: Rotstop, wood decay, DGGE, ISSR fingerprinting, ribosomal DNA

Malaria burden and costs of intensified control in Bhutan, 2006-2014: A situational analysis

- Introduction Malaria cases have dwindled in Bhutan with aim of malaria elimination by 2016. The aims of this study are to determine the trends and burden of malaria, the costs of intensified control activities, the main donors of the control activities and the costs of different preventive measures in the pre-elimination phase (2006-2014). - Methods A descriptive analysis of malaria surveillance data from 2006-2014 was carried out, using data from the Vector-borne Disease Control Programme (VDCP), Bhutan. Malaria morbidity and mortality among local Bhutanese and foreign nationals were analysed. The cost of different control and preventive measures, and estimation of the average numbers of long-lasting insecticidal nests (LLINs) per person were calculated. - Findings There were 5,491 confirmed malaria cases from 2006 to 2014. By 2013, there was an average of one LLIN for every 1·51 individuals. The Global Fund was the main international donor accounting for > 80% of the total funds. The cost of procuring LLINs accounted for > 90% of the total cost of prevention measures. - Interpretation The malaria burden reduced significantly over the study period with high coverage of LLINs in Bhutan. This foreseeable challenges that require national attention to maintain malaria-free status after elimination are importation of malaria, particularly from India; continued protection of the population in endemic districts through complete coverage with LLINs and IRS; and exploration of local funding modalities post elimination in the event there is a reduction in international funding.

Association of the microRNA-Single Nucleotide Polymorphism rs2910164 in miR146a with sporadic breast cancer susceptibility: A case control study

Background Breast cancer (BC) is primarily considered a genetic disorder with a complex interplay of factors including age, gender, ethnicity, family history, personal history and lifestyle with associated hormonal and non-hormonal risk factors. The SNP rs2910164 in miR146a (a G to C polymorphism) was previously associated with increased risk of BC in cases with at least a single copy of the C allele in breast cancer, though results in other cancers and populations have shown significant variation. Methods In this study, we examined this SNP in an Australian sporadic breast cancer population of 160 cases and matched controls, with a replicate population of 403 breast cancer cases using High Resolution Melting. Results Our analysis indicated that the rs2910164 polymorphism is associated with breast cancer risk in both primary and replicate populations (p = 0.03 and 0.0013, respectively). In contrast to the results of familial breast cancer studies, however, we found that the presence of the G allele of rs2910164 is associated with increased cancer risk, with an OR of 1.77 (95% CI 1.40–2.23). Conclusions The microRNA miR146a has a potential role in the development of breast cancer and the effects of its SNPs require further inquiry to determine the nature of their influence on breast tissue and cancer.

Spirometric studies on the adult general population of Helsinki : bronchodilation responses, determinants, and intrasession repeatability of FEV1, FEV6, FVC, and forced expiratory time

Spirometry is the most widely used lung function test in the world. It is fundamental in diagnostic and functional evaluation of various pulmonary diseases. In the studies described in this thesis, the spirometric assessment of reversibility of bronchial obstruction, its determinants, and variation features are described in a general population sample from Helsinki, Finland. This study is a part of the FinEsS study, which is a collaborative study of clinical epidemiology of respiratory health between Finland (Fin), Estonia (Es), and Sweden (S). Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) constitute the two major obstructive airways diseases. The prevalence of asthma has increased, with around 6% of the population in Helsinki reporting physician-diagnosed asthma. The main cause of COPD is smoking with changes in smoking habits in the population affecting its prevalence with a delay. Whereas airway obstruction in asthma is by definition reversible, COPD is characterized by fixed obstruction. Cough and sputum production, the first symptoms of COPD, are often misinterpreted for smokers cough and not recognized as first signs of a chronic illness. Therefore COPD is widely underdiagnosed. More extensive use of spirometry in primary care is advocated to focus smoking cessation interventions on populations at risk. The use of forced expiratory volume in six seconds (FEV6) instead of forced vital capacity (FVC) has been suggested to enable office spirometry to be used in earlier detection of airflow limitation. Despite being a widely accepted standard method of assessment of lung function, the methodology and interpretation of spirometry are constantly developing. In 2005, the ATS/ERS Task Force issued a joint statement which endorsed the 12% and 200 ml thresholds for significant change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) or FVC during bronchodilation testing, but included the notion that in cases where only FVC improves it should be verified that this is not caused by a longer exhalation time in post-bronchodilator spirometry. This elicited new interest in the assessment of forced expiratory time (FET), a spirometric variable not usually reported or used in assessment. In this population sample, we examined FET and found it to be on average 10.7 (SD 4.3) s and to increase with ageing and airflow limitation in spirometry. The intrasession repeatability of FET was the poorest of the spirometric variables assessed. Based on the intrasession repeatability, a limit for significant change of 3 s was suggested for FET during bronchodilation testing. FEV6 was found to perform equally well as FVC in the population and in a subgroup of subjects with airways obstruction. In the bronchodilation test, decreases were frequently observed in FEV1 and particularly in FVC. The limit of significant increase based on the 95th percentile of the population sample was 9% for FEV1 and 6% for FEV6 and FVC; these are slightly lower than the current limits for single bronchodilation tests (ATS/ERS guidelines). FEV6 was proven as a valid alternative to FVC also in the bronchodilation test and would remove the need to control duration of exhalation during the spirometric bronchodilation test.

Pharmacogenetics of SLCO1B1: Population genetics and effect on statins

Kohonneiden kolesterolipitoisuuksien alentamisessa käytettävien statiinien hyödyt sydän- ja verisuonisairauksien estossa on vahvasti osoitettu ja niiden käyttö on niin Suomessa kuin muuallakin maailmassa kasvanut voimakkaasti – Suomessa statiininkäyttäjiä on noin 600 000. Statiinilääkitys on pitkäaikaisessakin käytössä melko hyvin siedetty, mutta yleisimpinä haittavaikutuksina voi ilmetä lihasheikkoutta, -kipua ja -kramppeja, jotka voivat edetä jopa henkeä uhkaavaksi lihasvaurioksi. Lihashaittariski suurenee suhteessa statiiniannokseen ja plasman statiinipitoisuuksiin. Statiinien plasmapitoisuuksissa, tehossa ja haittavaikutusten ilmenemisessä on suuria potilaskohtaisia eroja. SLCO1B1-geenin koodaama OATP1B1-kuljetusproteiini kuljettaa monia elimistön omia aineita ja lääkeaineita verenkierrosta solukalvon läpi maksasoluun, mm. statiineja, joiden kolesterolia alentava vaikutus ja poistuminen elimistöstä tapahtuvat pääosin maksassa. Erään SLCO1B1-geenin nukleotidimuutoksen (c.521T>C) tiedetään heikentävän OATP1B1:n kuljetustehoa. Tässä väitöskirjatyössä selvitettiin SLCO1B1-geenin perinnöllistä muuntelua suomalaisilla ja eri väestöissä maailmanlaajuisesti. Lisäksi selvitettiin SLCO1B1:n muunnosten vaikutusta eri statiinien pitoisuuksiin (farmakokinetiikka) ja vaikutuksiin (farmakodynamiikka) sekä kolesteroliaineenvaihduntaan. Näihin tutkimuksiin valittiin SLCO1B1-genotyypin perusteella terveitä vapaaehtoisia koehenkilöitä, joille annettiin eri päivinä kerta-annos kutakin tutkittavaa statiinia: fluvastatiinia, pravastatiinia, simvastatiinia, rosuvastatiinia ja atorvastatiinia. Verinäytteistä määritettiin plasman statiinien ja niiden aineenvaihduntatuotteiden sekä kolesterolin ja sen muodostumista ja imeytymistä kuvaavien merkkiaineiden pitoisuuksia. Toiminnallisesti merkittävien SLCO1B1-geenimuunnosten esiintyvyydessä todettiin suuria eroja eri väestöjen välillä. Suomalaisilla SLCO1B1 c.521TC-genotyypin (geenimuunnos toisessa vastinkromosomissa) esiintyvyys oli noin 32 % ja SLCO1B1 c.521CC-genotyypin (geenimuunnos molemmissa vastinkromosomeissa) esiintyvyys noin 4 %. Globaalisti geenimuunnosten esiintyvyys korreloi maapallon leveyspiirien kanssa siten, että matalaan transportteriaktiivisuuteen johtavat muunnokset olivat yleisimpiä pohjoisessa ja korkeaan aktiivisuuteen johtavat päiväntasaajan lähellä asuvilla väestöillä. SLCO1B1-genotyypillä oli merkittävä vaikutus statiinien plasmapitoisuksiin lukuun ottamatta fluvastatiinia. Simvastatiinihapon plasmapitoisuudet olivat keskimäärin 220 %, atorvastatiinin 140 %, pravastatiinin 90 % ja rosuvastatiinin 70 % suuremmat c.521CC-genotyypin omaavilla koehenkilöillä verrattuna normaalin c.521TT-genotyypin omaaviin. Genotyypillä ei ollut merkittävää vaikutusta minkään statiinin tehoon tässä kerta-annostutkimuksessa, mutta geenimuunnoksen kantajilla perustason kolesterolisynteesinopeus oli suurempi. Tulokset osoittavat, että SLCO1B1 c.521T>C geenimuunnos on varsin yleinen suomalaisilla ja muilla ei-afrikkalaisilla väestöillä. Tämä geenimuunnos voi altistaa erityisesti simvastatiinin, mutta myös atorvastatiinin, pravastatiinin ja rosuvastatiinin, aiheuttamille lihashaitoille suurentamalla niiden plasmapitoisuuksia. SLCO1B1:n geenimuunnoksen testaamista voidaan tulevaisuudessa käyttää apuna valittaessa sopivaa statiinilääkitystä ja -annosta potilaalle, ja näin parantaa sekä statiinihoidon turvallisuutta että tehoa.

Uplink Power Control and Base Station Association in Multichannel Cellular Networks

A combined base station association and power control problem is studied for the uplink of multichannel multicell cellular networks, in which each channel is used by exactly one cell (i.e., base station). A distributed association and power update algorithm is proposed and shown to converge to a Nash equilibrium of a noncooperative game. We consider network models with discrete mobiles (yielding an atomic congestion game), as well as a continuum of mobiles (yielding a population game). We find that the equilibria need not be Pareto efficient, nor need they be system optimal. To address the lack of system optimality, we propose pricing mechanisms. It is shown that these mechanisms can be implemented in a distributed fashion.

Generating artificial chromosomes with probability control in genetic algorithm for machine scheduling problems

In this paper, a novel genetic algorithm is developed by generating artificial chromosomes with probability control to solve the machine scheduling problems. Generating artificial chromosomes for Genetic Algorithm (ACGA) is closely related to Evolutionary Algorithms Based on Probabilistic Models (EAPM). The artificial chromosomes are generated by a probability model that extracts the gene information from current population. ACGA is considered as a hybrid algorithm because both the conventional genetic operators and a probability model are integrated. The ACGA proposed in this paper, further employs the ``evaporation concept'' applied in Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) to solve the permutation flowshop problem. The ``evaporation concept'' is used to reduce the effect of past experience and to explore new alternative solutions. In this paper, we propose three different methods for the probability of evaporation. This probability of evaporation is applied as soon as a job is assigned to a position in the permutation flowshop problem. Experimental results show that our ACGA with the evaporation concept gives better performance than some algorithms in the literature.

Optimal management of beaver population using a reduced-order distributed parameter model and single network adaptive critics

Beavers are often found to be in conflict with human interests by creating nuisances like building dams on flowing water (leading to flooding), blocking irrigation canals, cutting down timbers, etc. At the same time they contribute to raising water tables, increased vegetation, etc. Consequently, maintaining an optimal beaver population is beneficial. Because of their diffusion externality (due to migratory nature), strategies based on lumped parameter models are often ineffective. Using a distributed parameter model for beaver population that accounts for their spatial and temporal behavior, an optimal control (trapping) strategy is presented in this paper that leads to a desired distribution of the animal density in a region in the long run. The optimal control solution presented, imbeds the solution for a large number of initial conditions (i.e., it has a feedback form), which is otherwise nontrivial to obtain. The solution obtained can be used in real-time by a nonexpert in control theory since it involves only using the neural networks trained offline. Proper orthogonal decomposition-based basis function design followed by their use in a Galerkin projection has been incorporated in the solution process as a model reduction technique. Optimal solutions are obtained through a "single network adaptive critic" (SNAC) neural-network architecture.

Population genetic structure and conservation of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) across India

This study examines the population genetic structure of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) across India, which harbours over half the world's population of this endangered species. Mitochondrial DNA control region sequences and allele frequencies at six nuclear DNA microsatellite markers obtained from the dung of free-ranging elephants reveal low mtDNA and typical microsatellite diversity. Both known divergent clades of mtDNA haplotypes in the Asian elephant are present in India, with southern and central India exhibiting exclusively the β clade of Fernando et al. (2000), northern India exhibiting exclusively the α clade and northeastern India exhibiting both, but predominantly the α clade. A nested clade analysis revealed isolation by distance as the principal mechanism responsible for the observed haplotype distributions within the α and β clades. Analyses of molecular variance and pairwise population FST tests based on both mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA suggest that northern-northeastern India, central India, Nilgiris (in southern India) and Anamalai-Periyar (in southern India) are four demographically autonomous population units and should be managed separately. In addition, evidence for female philopatry, male-mediated gene flow and two possible historical biogeographical barriers is described.

Population, globalization and urbanization: Trends and underlying prosesses

Third World hinterlands provide most of the settings in which the quality of human life has improved the least over the decade since Our Common Future was published. This low quality of life promotes a desire for large number of offspring, fuelling population growth and an exodus to the urban centres of the Third World, Enhancing the quality of life of these people in ways compatible with the health of their environments is therefore the most significant of the challenges from the perspective of sustainable development. Human quality of life may be viewed in terms of access to goods, services and a satisfying social role. The ongoing processes of globalization are enhancing flows of goods worldwide, but these hardly reach the poor of Third World countrysides. But processes of globalization have also vastly improved everybody's access to Information, and there are excellent opportunities of putting this to good use to enhance the quality of life of the people of Third World countrysides through better access to education and health. More importantly, better access to information could promote a more satisfying social role through strengthening grass-roots involvement in development planning and management of natural resources. I illustrate these possibilities with the help of a series of concrete experiences form the south Indian state of Kerala. Such an effort does not call for large-scare material inputs, rather it calls for a culture of inform-and-share in place place of the prevalent culture of control-and-command. It calls for openness and transparency in transactions involving government agencies, NGOs, and national and transnational business enterprises. It calls for acceptance of accountability by such agencies.

How to run a campaign: Optimal control of SIS and SIR information epidemics

Information spreading in a population can be modeled as an epidemic. Campaigners (e.g., election campaign managers, companies marketing products or movies) are interested in spreading a message by a given deadline, using limited resources. In this paper, we formulate the above situation as an optimal control problem and the solution (using Pontryagin's Maximum Principle) prescribes an optimal resource allocation over the time of the campaign. We consider two different scenarios-in the first, the campaigner can adjust a direct control (over time) which allows her to recruit individuals from the population (at some cost) to act as spreaders for the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model. In the second case, we allow the campaigner to adjust the effective spreading rate by incentivizing the infected in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, in addition to the direct recruitment. We consider time varying information spreading rate in our formulation to model the changing interest level of individuals in the campaign, as the deadline is reached. In both the cases, we show the existence of a solution and its uniqueness for sufficiently small campaign deadlines. For the fixed spreading rate, we show the effectiveness of the optimal control strategy against the constant control strategy, a heuristic control strategy and no control. We show the sensitivity of the optimal control to the spreading rate profile when it is time varying. (C) 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal control of information epidemics modeled as Maki Thompson rumors

We model the spread of information in a homogeneously mixed population using the Maki Thompson rumor model. We formulate an optimal control problem, from the perspective of single campaigner, to maximize the spread of information when the campaign budget is fixed. Control signals, such as advertising in the mass media, attempt to convert ignorants and stiflers into spreaders. We show the existence of a solution to the optimal control problem when the campaigning incurs non-linear costs under the isoperimetric budget constraint. The solution employs Pontryagin's Minimum Principle and a modified version of forward backward sweep technique for numerical computation to accommodate the isoperimetric budget constraint. The techniques developed in this paper are general and can be applied to similar optimal control problems in other areas. We have allowed the spreading rate of the information epidemic to vary over the campaign duration to model practical situations when the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign changes with time. The shape of the optimal control signal is studied for different model parameters and spreading rate profiles. We have also studied the variation of the optimal campaigning costs with respect to various model parameters. Results indicate that, for some model parameters, significant improvements can be achieved by the optimal strategy compared to the static control strategy. The static strategy respects the same budget constraint as the optimal strategy and has a constant value throughout the campaign horizon. This work finds application in election and social awareness campaigns, product advertising, movie promotion and crowdfunding campaigns. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Campaigning in Heterogeneous Social Networks: Optimal Control of SI Information Epidemics

We study the optimal control problem of maximizing the spread of an information epidemic on a social network. Information propagation is modeled as a susceptible-infected (SI) process, and the campaign budget is fixed. Direct recruitment and word-of-mouth incentives are the two strategies to accelerate information spreading (controls). We allow for multiple controls depending on the degree of the nodes/individuals. The solution optimally allocates the scarce resource over the campaign duration and the degree class groups. We study the impact of the degree distribution of the network on the controls and present results for Erdos-Renyi and scale-free networks. Results show that more resource is allocated to high-degree nodes in the case of scale-free networks, but medium-degree nodes in the case of Erdos-Renyi networks. We study the effects of various model parameters on the optimal strategy and quantify the improvement offered by the optimal strategy over the static and bang-bang control strategies. The effect of the time-varying spreading rate on the controls is explored as the interest level of the population in the subject of the campaign may change over time. We show the existence of a solution to the formulated optimal control problem, which has nonlinear isoperimetric constraints, using novel techniques that is general and can be used in other similar optimal control problems. This work may be of interest to political, social awareness, or crowdfunding campaigners and product marketing managers, and with some modifications may be used for mitigating biological epidemics.

Monte Carlo approaches to nonlinear optimal control

This paper explores the use of Monte Carlo techniques in deterministic nonlinear optimal control. Inter-dimensional population Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are proposed to solve the nonlinear optimal control problem. The linear quadratic and Acrobot problems are studied to demonstrate the successful application of the relevant techniques.