ALBA: A Political Tool for Venezuela’s Foreign Policy

Despite its founding by Hugo Chávez on the heels of the failed Free Trade Area for the Americas (FTAA) negotiations which took place November 2003, the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA, as it is known for its Spanish acronym) has evolved into a political tool that uses “social power” to facilitate Venezuela‟s positioning as the leader of the anti-U.S. agenda in the region. Fostering political favors and goodwill through the financing of social development projects, ALBA has created a political environment whereby countries on the take and their respective leaders seem deterred from taking public opposing viewpoints to Chávez. To that end, it has provided billions in economic aid to several nations in Latin American and the Caribbean, winning their favor and support for its policies. To date, ALBA counts on eight member nations. Besides Venezuela, it includes Antigua and Barbuda, Bolivia, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. It also has several observer nations, among them, Grenada, Haiti, Paraguay, Uruguay, and a non-Latin American country, Syria. Throughout its recent history Venezuela has used its oil wealth to pursue political capital. Under the Chávez government it is doing so as part of a strategic effort countering the U.S. Following Cuba‟s demise in the region as the anti-American socialist camp leader, Chávez is attempting to step into Cuba‟s shoes, picking up where Cuba left off over a decade ago and has used the ALBA as a mechanism to help promote his foreign policy. Relying on its own resources, not those of the Soviet Union as Cuba once did, Venezuela has already shown its influence in the international arena, challenging U.S. positions at the Organization of American States (OAS), the United Nations, and even in matters having little if nothing to do with the region, such as Iran‟s nuclear proliferation. Taking advantage of Venezuela‟s oil prices bonanza, Chávez has been spreading economic aid throughout the region, funding several development projects. From stepping in to buy Bolivia‟s soy beans when the U.S. ceased doing so, to helping finance and construct an airport in Dominica, Venezuela‟s ALBA has provided assistance to many states in the region. As in the past, Venezuela has invested significantly both in time and money in the Caribbean, providing development assistance and oil at a discount to Haiti, St. Kitts and Nevis, and the Dominican Republic, although the latter two are neither member nor observer states of ALBA. The aid Chávez has been spreading around may be coming at a cost. It seems it has begun to cause cracks within the CARICOM community, where ALBA already counts on six of its 15 members, leading experts and leaders in the region to question traditional alliances to each other and the U.S. Yet, ALBA‟s ability to influence through aid is dependent on the Venezuelan economy. Its success hinges on continued Venezuelan oil sales at stable prices and the ability of Chávez to remain in power.

Social Capital and International Migration from Latin America

We combine data from the Latin American Migration Project and the Mexican Migration Project to estimate models predicting the likelihood of taking of first and later trips to the United States from five nations: Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Peru. The models test specific hypotheses about the effects of social capital on international migration and how these effects vary with respect to contextual factors. Our findings confirm the ubiquity of migrant networks and the universality of social capital effects throughout Latin America. They also reveal how the sizes of these effects are not uniform across settings. Social capital operates more powerfully on first as opposed to later trips and interacts with the cost of migration. In addition, effects are somewhat different when considering individual social capital (measuring strong ties) and community social capital (measuring weak ties). On first trips, the effect of strong ties in promoting migration increases with distance whereas the effect of weak ties decreases with distance. On later trips, the direction of effects for both individual and community social capital is negative for long distances but positive for short distances.

Essays in Open Economy Macroeconomics

Research macroeconomists have witnessed remarkable methodological developments in mathematical, statistical, and computational tools during the last two decades. The three essays in this dissertation took advantage of these advances to analyze important macroeconomic issues. The first essay, “ Habit Formation, Adjustments Costs, and International Business Cycle Puzzles” analyzes the extent to which incorporating habit formation and adjustment costs in investment in a one-good two-country general equilibrium model would help overcome some of the international business cycle puzzles. Unlike standard results in the literature, the model generates persistent, cyclical adjustment paths in response to shocks. It also yields positive cross-country correlations in consumption, employment, investment, and output. Cross-country correlations in output are higher than the ones in consumption. This is qualitatively consistent with the stylized facts. These results are particularly striking given the predicted negative correlations in investment, employment, and output that are typically found in the literature. The second essay, “Comparison Utility, Endogenous Time Preference, and Economic Growth,” uses World War II as a natural experiment to analyze the degree to which a model where consumers' preferences exhibit comparison-based utility and endogenous discounting is able to improve upon existing models in mimicking the transitional dynamics of an economy after a shock that destroys part of its capital stock. The model outperforms existing ones in replicating the behavior of the saving rate (both on impact and along the transient paths) after this historical event. This result brings additional support to the endogenous rate of time preference being a crucial element in growth models. The last essay, “Monetary Policy under Fear of Floating: Modeling the Dominican Economy,” presents a small scale macroeconomic model for a country (Dominican Republic) characterized by a strong presence of fear of floating (reluctance to have a flexible exchange rate regime) in the conduct of monetary policy. The dynamic responses of this economy to external shocks that are of interest for monetary policy purposes are analyzed under two alternative interest rate policy rules: One being the standard Taylor rule and another that responds explicitly to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to its long-term trend.

Distribution and Conservation of the Antillean Manatee in Hispaniola

Antillean manatees (Trichechus manatus manatus) were heavily hunted in the past throughout the Wider Caribbean Region (WCR), and are currently listed as endangered on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. In most WCR countries, including Haiti and the Dominican Republic, remaining manatee populations are believed to be small and declining, but current information is needed on their status, distribution, and local threats to the species.

To assess the past and current distribution and conservation status of the Antillean manatee in Hispaniola, I conducted a systematic review of documentary archives dating from the pre-Columbian era to 2013. I then surveyed more than 670 artisanal fishers from Haiti and the Dominican Republic in 2013-2014 using a standardized questionnaire. Finally, to identify important areas for manatees in the Dominican Republic, I developed a country-wide ensemble model of manatee distribution, and compared modeled hotspots with those identified by fishers.

Manatees were historically abundant in Hispaniola, but were hunted for their meat and became relatively rare by the end of the 19th century. The use of manatee body parts diversified with time to include their oil, skin, and bones. Traditional uses for folk medicine and handcrafts persist today in coastal communities in the Dominican Republic. Most threats to Antillean manatees in Hispaniola are anthropogenic in nature, and most mortality is caused by fisheries. I estimated a minimum island-wide annual mortality of approximately 20 animals. To understand the impact of this level of mortality, and to provide a baseline for measuring the success of future conservation actions, the Dominican Republic and Haiti should work together to obtain a reliable estimate of the current population size of manatees in Hispaniola.

In Haiti, the survey of fishers showed a wider distribution range of the species than suggested by the documentary archive review: fishers reported recent manatee sightings in seven of nine coastal departments, and three manatee hotspot areas were identified in the north, central, and south coasts. Thus, the contracted manatee distribution range suggested by the documentary archive review likely reflects a lack of research in Haiti. Both the review and the interviews agreed that manatees no longer occupy freshwater habitats in the country. In general, more dedicated manatee studies are needed in Haiti, employing aerial, land, or boat surveys.

In the Dominican Republic, the documentary archive review and the survey of fishers showed that manatees still occur throughout the country, and occasionally occupy freshwater habitats. Monte Cristi province in the north coast, and Barahona province in the south coast, were identified as focal areas. Sighting reports of manatees decreased from Monte Cristi eastwards to the adjacent province in the Dominican Republic, and westwards into Haiti. Along the north coast of Haiti, the number of manatee sighting and capture reports decreased with increasing distance to Monte Cristi province. There was good agreement among the modeled manatee hotspots, hotspots identified by fishers, and hotspots identified during previous dedicated manatee studies. The concordance of these results suggests that the distribution and patterns of habitat use of manatees in the Dominican Republic have not changed dramatically in over 30 years, and that the remaining manatees exhibit some degree of site fidelity. The ensemble modeling approach used in the present study produced accurate and detailed maps of manatee distribution with minimum data requirements. This modeling strategy is replicable and readily transferable to other countries in the Caribbean or elsewhere with limited data on a species of interest.

The intrinsic value of manatees was stronger for artisanal fishers in the Dominican Republic than in Haiti, and most Dominican fishers showed a positive attitude towards manatee conservation. The Dominican Republic is an upper middle income country with a high Human Development Index. It possesses a legal framework that specifically protects manatees, and has a greater number of marine protected areas, more dedicated manatee studies, and more manatee education and awareness campaigns than Haiti. The constant presence of manatees in specific coastal segments of the Dominican Republic, the perceived decline in the number of manatee captures, and a more conservation-minded public, offer hope for manatee conservation, as non-consumptive uses of manatees become more popular. I recommend a series of conservation actions in the Dominican Republic, including: reducing risks to manatees from harmful fishing gear and watercraft at confirmed manatee hotspots; providing alternative economic alternatives for displaced fishers, and developing responsible ecotourism ventures for manatee watching; improving law enforcement to reduce fisheries-related manatee deaths, stop the illegal trade in manatee body parts, and better protect manatee habitat; and continuing education and awareness campaigns for coastal communities near manatee hotspots.

In contrast, most fishers in Haiti continue to value manatees as a source of food and income, and showed a generally negative attitude towards manatee conservation. Haiti is a low income country with a low Human Development Index. Only a single dedicated manatee study has been conducted in Haiti, and manatees are not officially protected. Positive initiatives for manatees in Haiti include: protected areas declared in 2013 and 2014 that enclose two of the manatee hotspots identified in the present study; and local organizations that are currently working on coastal and marine environmental issues, including research and education on marine mammals. Future conservation efforts for manatees in Haiti should focus on addressing poverty and providing viable economic alternatives for coastal communities. I recommend a community partnership approach for manatee conservation, paired with education and awareness campaigns to inform coastal communities about the conservation situation of manatees in Haiti, and to help change their perceived value. Haiti should also provide legal protection for manatees and their habitat.

Genetic Diversity and Conservation of Pseudophoenix (Arecaceae) in Hispaniola

The Caribbean genus Pseudophoenix (Arecaceae) has its center of taxonomic diversity in Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic). Three species (P. ekmanii, P. lediniana, and P. vinifera) are restricted to this island. In this thesis I investigated the population genetic diversity and structure of Pseudophoenix using ten microsatellite loci. Results showed homozygote excess and high inbreeding coefficients in all populations across all polymorphic loci. Overall, there was high differentiation among populations. Results from the Bayesian and Neighbor Joining cluster analyses identified groups that were consistence with currently accepted species delimitation. We included the only known population of an undescribed morph from the Dominican Republic that has been suggested to represent a new species. Results from the cluster analyses suggested that this putative species is closely related to P. sargentii from Turk and Caicos. Our study provided insights pertinent to the conservation genetics and management of this genus in Hispaniola.

El diminutivo en el español de Santo Domingo

Esta investigación analiza el uso del sufijo diminutivo en un corpus oral de jóvenes de la República Dominicana. El material procede de la transcripción de veinte entrevistas orales realizadas en los años noventa en Santo Domingo. En este estudio se realiza un análisis de las ocurrencias documentadas, su morfología, sus preferencias en cuanto a la selección de las clases de palabras que se toman como base para la formación de diminutivos, sus posibles valores semánticos y comunicativos, y, por último, se determina la frecuencia de uso del diminutivo en función del sexo de los hablantes.

Dramaturgias en el teatro actual de las Antillas. Cartografía de poéticas en movimiento: Teresa Hernández y Josefina Báez

This dissertation aims to explore the contemporary Caribbean and its dramaturgy through the study of the artistic work of two remarkable artists: the Puerto Rican Teresa Hernández and the Dominicanyork Josefina Báez. Both artists are currently generating a lot of attention due to the internationalization of their creations, but still their work deserves even more consideration. These skilled stage artists connect various islands through their artistic work: Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the islands within New York City. The different cultures that converge and coexist in these places exemplify the process of hybridization that characterizes our modern world. Teresa and Josefina illustrate in their plays the plurality of the Caribbean, depicting a true multiplicity of languages and cultures that makes it impossible to adopt a fixed and unique conception of a national identity. They engage in the difficult task of finding out what it means to be a Puerto Rican, a Dominican or a New Yorker. Both performers clearly criticize the notion of an identity that pretends to fuse and include all the possible voices of every Caribbean nation under a sole definition. Therefore, one must consider the heterogeneity that surrounds us as the basis to approach the work of these two artists when evaluating the Caribbean, as well as the dramaturgical procedures these great performers employ. To begin with, how can we talk about the Caribbean? How can we talk accurately about dramaturgical procedures? Furthermore, how can we express with words the ephemeral aspect of the theatrical event? How can we use words to address a Caribbean reality, which contains European and American standards, but does not necessarily follow them? These are the questions that the present investigation seeks to answer; however, it is not an easy task. Thus, the real challenge of this dissertation is to offer a rigorous response to these questions...

Segmentation and kinematics of the North America-Caribbean plate boundary offshore Hispaniola

We explored the submarine portions of the Enriquillo–Plantain Garden Fault zone (EPGFZ) and the Septentrional–Oriente Fault zone (SOFZ) along the Northern Caribbean plate boundary using high-resolution multibeam echo-sounding and shallow seismic reflection. The bathymetric data shed light on poorly documented or previously unknown submarine fault zones running over 200 km between Haiti and Jamaica (EPGFZ) and 300 km between the Dominican Republic and Cuba (SOFZ). The primary plate-boundary structures are a series of strike-slip fault segments associated with pressure ridges, restraining bends, step overs and dogleg offsets indicating very active tectonics. Several distinct segments 50–100 km long cut across pre-existing structures inherited from former tectonic regimes or bypass recent morphologies formed under the current strike-slip regime. Along the most recent trace of the SOFZ, we measured a strike-slip offset of 16.5 km, which indicates steady activity for the past ~1.8 Ma if its current GPS-derived motion of 9.8 ± 2 mm a−1 has remained stable during the entire Quaternary.

Valor diagnóstico del pepsinógeno i/ii como biomarcador de lesiones pre-malignas y malignas gástricas: revisión sistemática

Antecedentes: El cáncer gástrico se diagnostica tardíamente. Sólo en países como Corea y Japón existen políticas de tamizaje, que se justificarían en cualquier país con alta prevalencia de cáncer gástrico como Colombia o Chile. El análisis del pepsinógeno sérico se ha propuesto para el diagnóstico de lesiones premalignas y malignas gástricas, por lo cual se pretende revisar sistemáticamente en la literatura el valor diagnóstico del cociente pepsinógeno I/II como marcador de lesiones premalignas y malignas gástricas. Metodología: Se revisó la literatura hasta septiembre del 2016 con palabras claves lesiones malignas, premalignas gástricas y pepsinógeno en las bases de datos PubMed, OVID, EMBASE, EBSCO, LILACS, OPENGRAY y Dialnet, artículos de prueba diagnóstica que evaluaran el cociente pepsinógeno I/II en relación con los hallazgos histológicos. Resultados: Se incluyeron 21 artículos conun total de 20601 pacientes, que demuestranuna sensibilidad entre13.7% - 91.2%, una especificidad entre 38.5% - 100%, un Valor Predictivo Positivo entre 6.3% - 100% y un Valor Predictivo Negativo entre 33.3% - 98.8%del cociente pepsinógeno I/II en relación con el diagnósticode lesiones premalignas y malignas gástricas. Conclusiones: Los valores del cociente pepsinógeno I/II disminuidos se relacionan con la presencia delesiones premalignas y malignas gástricas.Dado que tiene mejor especificidad que sensibilidad, en cuanto prueba para tamizaje, sería útil para la selección de pacientes que se beneficiaríande la EVDA. Se requieren más estudios de prueba diagnóstica para validar un punto de corte específico que pueda ser utilizado como valor estándar.

Distribution patterns of endemic flora to define hotspots on Hispaniola

Nineteen areas on the island of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) were studied with the aim of determining the distribution pattern of the endemic flora in these areas, and their variability with altitude. The main concentration of endemic species occurs in mountains with a medium altitude and in certain mountain sites (palaeo-islands), which coincide with hotspots; a lower number of endemics are found in low-lying areas (coldspots), due to the degradation of their habitats. A total of 1,582 endemic species were studied and were distributed in 19 areas. The whole island is of outstanding interest for its richness in endemics; it has 2,050 endemic species, representing 34.16% of its total flora. The territory in the study is home to 1,284 genera of which 31 are endemic to the island, including monotypical genera such as Tortuella abietifolia Urb. & Ekman, and endemic genera such as Hottea, containing seven endemic species. The sites with the highest rate of endemics are area A16 in the central range with a total of 440 endemic species, of which 278 are exclusive to the territory; and the Sierra de Bahoruco, la Selle, La Hotte and Tibur on in area A12, where we found 699 plants of which 482 are endemic and exclusive to the area; and A13 with 173 and 129 respectively. This work highlights the exceptional floristic diversity in endemic species and genera and analyses their distribution patterns as a tool for conservation in this area of the world, whose high endemicity rate makes it one of the most significant hotspots in the Caribbean.

The Berlin Republic. Evolution of Germany's politics of memory and German patriotism. OSW Point of View, August 2009

Important changes have occurred in recent years in the attitude of a majority of the German elite towards the history of the 20th century and the political identity built on collective memory. Until recently, the sense of guilt for the crimes of the Third Reich and the obligation to remember were prevalent. While these two elements of Germany's memory of World War II are still important, currently the focus increasingly shifts to the German resistance against Nazism and the fate of the Germans who suffered in the war. Positive references to Germany's post-war history also occupy more and more space in the German memory. In 2009, i.e. the year of the 60th anniversary of the Federal Republic of Germany and the 20th anniversary of the fall of Communism, the efforts of German public institutions concentrate on promoting a new canon of history built around the successful democratisation and Germany's post-war economic success. The purpose behind these measures is to build a common historical memory that could be shared by the eastern and western parts of Germany and appeal to Germany's immigrants, who account for a growing proportion of the society.