Valor prognóstico das cinéticas da procalcitonina e da proteína C reativa na pneumonia associada à ventilação mecânica

Introdução A pneumonia hospitalar é a principal causa de morte dentre as infecções hospitalares. A prevalência de pneumonia hospitalar em Unidades de Tratamento Intensivo (UTI) varia de 10 a 65%, com taxas de mortalidade que podem variar de 24 a 76%. A pneumonia associada à ventilação mecânica (PAV) é um determinante de mortalidade independente em pacientes submetidos à ventilação mecânica. A adequação do tratamento empírico precoce parece ser fundamental no prognóstico. Os critérios atualmente estabelecidos para avaliar adequação do tratamento empírico utilizam parâmetros clínicos, escores de gravidade e, principalmente, a sensibilidade do germe causador da infecção aos antibióticos administrados. Estes resultados balizam a necessidade de possíveis modificações no esquema antimicrobiano. A possibilidade de utilizar a Procalcitonina (PCT), a Proteína-C Reativa (CRP) e o escore SOFA (Avaliação de Falência de Órgãos Relacionada a Sepse), como indicadores de resposta do paciente, comparando seu status no dia do início do tratamento antimicrobiano (D0) com a evolução destes indicadores no quarto dia de tratamento (D4) abre a possibilidade de comparar o paciente com ele próprio, independente da exuberância da expressão da resposta inflamatória que ele possa desenvolver. Os resultados desta cinética entre D0 e D4 podem ser preditivos de gravidade de infecção, de eficiência antimicrobiana, e possivelmente de sobrevivência ou mortalidade hospitalar nos pacientes com suspeita de PAV. Objetivos Determinar e comparar o valor prognóstico de sobrevivência da cinética da PCT, da CRP, dos escores clínicos CPIS (Escore Clínico de Infecção Pulmonar) e SOFA, e do APACHE II (Avaliação da Fisiologia Aguda e da Saúde Crônica) na PAV entre o diagnóstico e o quarto dia de tratamento, quando a adequação do tratamento é avaliada. Pacientes e Métodos Realizamos um estudo de coorte prospectivo observacional que avaliou 75 pacientes internados no Centro de Tratamento Intensivo clínico-cirúrgico de adultos do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre que desenvolveram PAV no período de outubro de 2003 a agosto de 2005. Os pacientes com suspeita clínica de PAV que se adequaram aos critérios de inclusão e exclusão do estudo foram os candidatos a participar. Os familiares ou representantes dos pacientes receberam esclarecimentos por escrito acerca dos exames a serem realizados, bem como dos objetivos gerais da pesquisa. Os que aceitaram participar do estudo assinaram o termo de Consentimento Informado. O projeto foi aprovado pelo Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre. No dia do diagnóstico de PAV foram coletados aspirado traqueal quantitativo, hemoculturas e sangue para a realização de dosagens de PCT, CRP, hemograma, plaquetas, creatinina, bilirrubinas, gasometria arterial e radiografia de tórax, com o objetivo de calcular o CPIS e o escore SOFA. No terceiro dia de tratamento foram novamente coletados aspirados traqueais quantitativos e os demais exames para o cálculo do CPIS. No quarto dia foi coletado sangue para dosagens de PCT, CRP e para os demais exames necessários para o cálculo do SOFA. Os pacientes foram acompanhados por 28 dias após o diagnóstico de PAV, quando foram considerados sobreviventes. Todos os pacientes que morreram antes do vigésimo oitavo dia foram considerados não-sobreviventes. Resultados Os níveis de PCT foram mais baixos nos sobreviventes em D0 (p=0.003) e em D4 (p=0.001). Os níveis de CRP não foram diferentes em sobreviventes e nãosobreviventes em D0 (p=0.77) e em D4 (p=0.14). O CPIS não pode diferenciar sobreviventes de não-sobrevientes em D0 (p=0.32) e em D3 (p=0.45). ΔCPIS decrescente não foi correlacionado a sobrevivência (p=0.59), o mesmo ocorrendo com CPIS <6 em D3 (p=0.79). Pacientes que morreram antes de D4 não puderam ter sua cinética calculada e foram considerados casos perdidos. Variáveis incluídas no modelo de regressão logística univariável para sobrevivência foram idade, APACHE II, ΔSOFA decrescente, ΔPCT decrescente e ΔCRP decrescente. Sobrevivência foi diretamente correlacionada a ΔPCT decrescente com RC = 5.67 (1.78;18.03) p = 0.003, ΔCRP com RC = 3.78 (1.24;11.50) p = 0.02, ΔSOFA decrescente com RC = 3.08 (1.02;9.26) p = 0.05 e escore APACHE II com RC = 0.92 (0.86;0.99) p = 0.02. O modelo de regressão logística multivariável para sobrevivência incluiu todas as variáveis participantes da análise univariável. Somente ΔPCT decrescente com RC = 4.43 (1.08;18.18) p = 0.04 e ΔCRP com RC = 7.40 (1.58;34.73) p = 0.01 permaneceram significativos. A avaliação da cinética dos marcadores inflamatórios e a associação com sobrevida no estudo mostraram que: - Em 95,1% dos sobreviventes houve queda dos níveis de PCT ou de CRP. - Em 61% dos sobreviventes ambos os níveis de PCT e de CRP caíram. Apenas 4,9% dos sobreviventes tiveram níveis de PCT e CRP crescentes. Com relação aos não-sobreviventes, 78.9% tiveram pelo menos um dos dois marcadores ou ambos com níveis crescentes. Conclusão As cinéticas da PCT e da CRP, obtidas pelas dosagens de seus níveis no dia do diagnóstico e no 4º dia de tratamento, podem predizer sobrevivência em pacientes com PAV. A queda dos níveis de pelo menos um destes marcadores ou de ambos indica maior chance de sobrevivência.

Investment coordination failures and the confidence channel of fiscal policy

Este trabalho desenvolve um novo "canal de Confiança" da política fiscal e caracteriza a política ótima quando esse canal é levado em consideração. Para esse objetivo, utilizamos um modelo estático com (i) concorrência monopolística, (ii) custos de ajustamento fixos para investir, (iii) complementaridade estratégica devido a informação imperfeita com respeito a produtividade agregada, e (iv) bens privados como substitutos imperfeitos de bens privados. Este arcabouço acomoda a possibilidade de falhas de coordenação nos investimentos, mas apresenta um equilíbrio único. Mostramos que a política fiscal tem efeitos importantes na coordenação. Um aumento dos gastos do governo leva a uma maior demanda por bens privados. Mais importante, este também afeta as expectativas de ordem superior com relação a demanda das demais firmas, que amplifica os efeitos do aumento inicial da demanda devido a complementaridade estratégica nas decisões de investimento. Como as demais firmas estão se deparam com uma demanda maior, espera-se que estas invistam mais, que por sua vez, aumenta a demanda individual de cada firma, que aumenta os incentivos a investir. Denominamos isto como o "canal de confiança" da política fiscal. Sob a ameaça de falhas de coordenação, a política fiscal ótima prescreve produzir além do ponto em que o benefício marginal resultante do consumo de bens públicos é igual ao custo marginal desses bens. Este benefício adicional vem do fato de que a política fiscal pode ampliar a coordenação dos investimentos.

Pneumonia adquirida na comunidade em adultos hospitalizados : estudo da etiologia, epidemiologia e fatores prognósticos

OBJETIVO: Determinar a etiologia, epidemiologia e os fatores prognósticos de pneumonia adquirida na comunidade (PAC) em adultos imunocompetentes hospitalizados. MÉTODOS: Durante um período de 3 anos, foram estudados, prospectivamente, 110 pacientes consecutivos com diagnóstico de PAC. RESULTADOS: Sessenta e seis (60%) pacientes eram homens, a idade média foi de 54 anos, 42 (38,2%) eram maiores de 65 anos, 81 (73,6%) apresentavam comorbidades, 70 (63%) pertenciam às classes IV e V de Fine e 24 (21,8%) pacientes foram admitidos em unidade de terapia intensiva (UTI). Um agente etiológico foi identificado em 60 (54,5%) casos, incluindo Streptococcus pneumoniae em 23 (20,9%) casos, Staphylococcus aureus em 14 (12,7%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa em 7 (6,4%), Haemophilus influenzae em 5 (4,6%) e Legionella pneumophila em 5 (4,6%) casos, como os patógenos mais freqüentemente isolados. O uso de antimicrobianos previamente à admissão hospitalar ocorreu em 33,6% dos casos e foi significativamente associado com etiologia desconhecida. Houve 15 (13,6%) óbitos e três variáveis foram estatisticamente associadas ao desfecho: idade > 65 anos, índice de Fine V e IV e internação em UTI. Alterações no tratamento empírico inicial foram realizadas em 43 (39%) casos devido à obtenção do diagnóstico etiológico. CONCLUSÕES: Em nosso estudo, S. pneumoniae foi o principal agente etiológico de PAC, seguido de S. aureus e P. aeruginosa, que apresentaram freqüência elevada em indivíduos com pneumonia grave e/ou fatores de risco conhecidos. A determinação do agente etiológico serviu para otimizar o tratamento proposto pelos consensos e estimar a prevalência local dos patógenos.

Non-asymptotic confidence bounds for the optimal value of a stochastic program

We discuss a general approach to building non-asymptotic confidence bounds for stochastic optimization problems. Our principal contribution is the observation that a Sample Average Approximation of a problem supplies upper and lower bounds for the optimal value of the problem which are essentially better than the quality of the corresponding optimal solutions. At the same time, such bounds are more reliable than “standard” confidence bounds obtained through the asymptotic approach. We also discuss bounding the optimal value of MinMax Stochastic Optimization and stochastically constrained problems. We conclude with a small simulation study illustrating the numerical behavior of the proposed bounds.

Estudo clínico e laboratorial da pneumonia de bezerros induzida pela inoculação intrabronquial de Mannheimia haemolytica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Uma intervenção educativa para profissionais de saúde na prevenção de pneumonia associada à ventilação mecânica

Quasi-experimental study, prospective with quantitative approach, performed at the Hospital do Coração in Natal, aimed at verified the existence of difference between the care given by health professionals to the patients under mechanical ventilation (MV) in the Intensive Care Unit, before and after an educative intervention. The population was of 31 professionals, with data collected between november 05 of 2007 to march 27 of 2008. The results show a yong population, female gender, middle level of education, nursing technique, working between 05 and 09 years on nursing profession, and 01 to 04 years on Intensive Care Unit; almost all, never had an kind of training over prevent pneumonia associated to mechanical ventilation; from those that had training, occur on the work place with duration from 12 to 24 hours. About endotracheal intubation, the cuff was tested with a sterilized syringe had a positive change after a educative intervention, increased from 75,0% to 100,0%; the sterile guide was used on 75,0% before and 100,0% after an educative intervention. Regarding endotracheal suction procedure, was not informed to the patient on 72,7% before, however was informed on 56,7% after; the hands was not previously washed 68,5% before, however was 63,3% after the procedure; mask was used on 74,2 % opportunities before and 76,7% after; the aspiration catheter had adequated size on 98,9% observation before and 100,0% after; the gaze was sterilized on 95,7% before and 100,0% after; the ventilator was connected to the patient during the aspiration intervals on 94,4% observation before and 100,0% after; the ambu bag was clean and protected on 76,1% before and 85,7% after; the aspiration catheter was discarded after be used on 98,9% before and 100,0% after; FIO2 was turned to the begging value on 32,9% observation before and 12,0% after; before the procedure 71,9% professions washed their hands and 73,3% after; before, notes of aspiration results were performed on 70,8% observation and 86,7% after. Regarding devices used on respiratory tract, aspirator flasks were not swapped on 84,6% observations before and 71,0% after; daily látex extention change was not performed on 93,6% observation before and 87,1% after; the ambu bag change was not performed on 50,0% observation before even if was duty or unprotected and on 75,8% opportunities was changed, after; nebulization was not prepared with sterile fluids or manipulated aseptically on 65,2% observation before, perhaps was on 71,7% after; before nebulizers were not changed on 65,2% observations, perhaps were on 60,9% after. Concerning ventilator breathing circuits, condense fluids cumulated on circuits were removed on 55,0% opportunities before, and 64,0% after; moisturizer was not filled with sterile water when already had small amount of liquid inside on 78,4% observations before, and 90,2% after; MV circuits were changed on 97,0% observations on presence of visible duty or when presents some kind of failure, before and 98,4% after. About body position, on 51,3% observations the decubitus position change were done before and 78,2% after; fowler position was maitened on 95,5% observations before and 98,2% after; Regarding respiratory physiotherapy, enteral diet was not interrupted before respiratory physiotherapy on 94,9% before and 90,0% after; respiratory physiotherapy devices were not disinfected or sterile on 69,6% observations before but they re on 60,0% after; before the cateter was not tested before introduction enteral diet or medications on 100,0% but after was done on 15,2%. About enteral feeding, intestine motility and measure of stomach contents were not done on 100,0% observations before, but was 15,2% after. We conclude that 05 of 07 valuated procedures in relation to MV, had a significant improvement on quality of care given after educative intervention, when compared before intervention

Fisioterapia respiratória em crianças com pneumonia: revisão sistemática

Introduction: Pneumonia is an inflammatory lung disease and it is the greatest cause of deaths in children younger than five years of age worldwide. Chest physiotherapy is widely used in the treatment of pneumonia because it can help to eliminate inflammatory exudates and tracheobronchial secretions, remove airway obstructions, reduce airway resistance, enhance gas exchange and reduce the work of breathing. Thus, chest physiotherapy may contribute to patient recovery as an adjuvant treatment even though its indication remains controversial. Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of chest physiotherapy in relation to time until clinical resolution in children (from birth up to 18 years old) of either gender with any type of pneumonia. Methods: We searched CENTRAL 2013, Issue 4; MEDLINE (1946 to May week 4, 2013); EMBASE (1974 to May 2013); CINAHL (1981 to May 2013); LILACS (1982 to May 2013); Web of Science (1950 to May 2013); and PEDro (1950 to May 2013). We consulted the ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO ICTRP registers to identify planned, ongoing and unpublished trials. We consulted the reference lists of relevant articles found by the electronic searches for additional studies. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared chest physiotherapy of any type with no chest physiotherapy in children with pneumonia. Two review authors independently selected the studies to be included in the review, assessed trial quality and extracted data. Results: Three RCTs involving 255 inpatient children are included in the review. They addressed conventional chest physiotherapy, positive expiratory pressure and continuous positive airway pressure. The following outcomes were measured: duration of hospital stay, time to clinical resolution (observing the following parameters: fever, chest indrawing, nasal flaring, tachypnoea and peripheral oxygen saturation levels), change in adventitious sounds, change in chest X-ray and duration of cough in days. Two of the included studies found a significant improvement in respiratory rate and oxygen saturation whereas the other included study failed to show that standardised respiratory physiotherapy and positive expiratory pressure decrease the time to clinical resolution and the duration of hospital stay. No adverse effects related to the interventions were xvi described. Due to the different characteristics of the trials, such as the duration of treatment, levels of severity, types of pneumonia and the techniques used in children with pneumonia, as well as differences in their statistical presentation, we were not able to pool data. Two included studies had an overall low risk of bias whereas one included study had an overall unclear risk of bias. Conclusion: Our review does not provide conclusive evidence to justify the use of chest physiotherapy in children with pneumonia due to a lack of data. The number of included studies is small and they differed in their statistical presentation

Determinantes morfológicos de prognóstico em pneumonia nosocomial: um estudo em autópsias

OBJETIVO: Determinar a prevalência de pneumonia nosocomial nas autópsias em um hospital público universitário; identificar os fatores de risco relacionados à pneumonia nosocomial e os potenciais fatores prognósticos relacionados à ocorrência de pneumonia nosocomial fatal; e correlacionar os achados anatomopatológicos com a ocorrência de pneumonia nosocomial e/ou pneumonia aspirativa. MÉTODOS: Estudo retrospectivo de 199 pacientes autopsiados, maiores de 1 ano de idade, internados no Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu da Universidade Estadual Paulista entre 1999 e 2006, cuja causa de morte (causa básica ou associada) foi pneumonia nosocomial. Testou-se a associação dos dados demográficos, clínicos e anatomopatológicos com os desfechos pneumonia nosocomial fatal e pneumonia aspirativa fatal. As variáveis significativas entraram na análise multivariada. RESULTADOS: A idade média foi de 59 ± 19 anos. A prevalência de pneumonia nosocomial em autópsias foi 29%, e essa foi a causa mortis de 22,6% dos pacientes autopsiados. A pneumonia nosocomial fatal correlacionou-se com os achados anatomopatológicos de alterações estruturais tabágicas (OR = 3,23; IC95%: 1,26-2,95; p = 0,02) e acometimento pulmonar bilateral (OR = 3,23; IC95%: 1,26-8,30; p = 0,01). Não houve associações significativas entre as variáveis e pneumonia aspirativa fatal. CONCLUSÕES: em nossa amostra, a pneumonia nosocomial teve prevalência elevada e foi responsável por quase 25% das mortes. A mortalidade é favorecida por alterações estruturais tabágicas e pneumonia bilateral. Esses achados corroboram os resultados de diversos estudos clínicos sobre pneumonia nosocomial.

Occurrence of pneumocystis pneumonia in HIV-infected patients and the interference of the highly active antiretroviral therapy

From the beginning of the AIDS epidemic, pneumocystis pneumonia ( PCP) has been distinguished as one of the most frequent opportunistic diseases with high morbid-mortality. As from 1996, the advent of the highly active antiretroviral therapy ( HAART) has changed the characteristics of such epidemic by reducing its related diseases and, as a result, AIDS-related mortality. With the purpose to estimate PCP occurrence and HAART interference, 376 HIV-infected or AIDS patients were studied from January 1992 to December 2002. Among them, 58 ( 15.5%) PCP cases were found. There was a higher occurrence of PCP in the group of patients in which HAART was not used, with 40 ( 69.0%) of the episodes. As regards the studied period, a tendency to a linear reduction in annual PCP incidence was observed. The mean of T CD4+ lymphocytes in the patients with PCP ( 117 cells/mm(3)) was significantly lower when compared to that of the other individuals ( 325 cells/mm(3)). Therefore, this study suggests a temporal reduction in PCP occurrence related to HAART use with higher T CD4+ lymphocyte counts. Nevertheless, this opportunistic infection still shows significant incidence in AIDS patients. ( NCT00516581).

Antibiotic treatment schemes for very severe community-acquired pneumonia in children: a randomized clinical study

Objective. To compare clinical response to initial empiric treatment with oxacillin plus ceftriaxone and amoxicillin plus clavulanic acid in hospitalized children diagnosed with very severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).Methods. A prospective randomized clinical study was conducted among children 2 months to 5 years old with a diagnosis of very severe CAP in the pediatric ward of São Paulo State University Hospital in Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil, from April 2007 to May 2008. Patients were randomly divided into two groups by type of treatment: an oxacillin/ceftriaxone group (OCG, n = 48) and an amoxicillin/clavulanic acid group (ACG, n = 56). Analyzed outcomes were: time to clinical improvement (fever and tachypnea), time on oxygen therapy, length of stay in hospital, need to widen antimicrobial spectrum, and complications (including pleural effusion).Results. The two groups did not differ statistically for age, sex, symptom duration before admission, or previous antibiotic treatment. Time to improve tachypnea was less among ACG patients than OCG patients (4.8 +/- 2.2 versus 5.8 +/- 2.4 days respectively; P = 0.028), as was length of hospital stay (11.0 +/- 6.2 versus 14.4 +/- 4.5 days respectively; P = 0.002). There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups for fever improvement time, time on oxygen therapy, need to widen antimicrobial spectrum, or frequency of pleural effusion.Conclusions. Both treatment plans are effective in treating very severe CAP in 2-monthto 5-year-old hospitalized children. The only analyzed outcome that favored amoxicillin/clavulanic acid treatment was time required to improve tachypnea.

Logistic regression analysis of potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism

Objective: To identify potential prognostic factors for pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE), establishing a mathematical model to predict the risk for fatal PTE and nonfatal PTE.Method: the reports on 4,813 consecutive autopsies performed from 1979 to 1998 in a Brazilian tertiary referral medical school were reviewed for a retrospective study. From the medical records and autopsy reports of the 512 patients found with macroscopically and/or microscopically,documented PTE, data on demographics, underlying diseases, and probable PTE site of origin were gathered and studied by multiple logistic regression. Thereafter, the jackknife method, a statistical cross-validation technique that uses the original study patients to validate a clinical prediction rule, was performed.Results: the autopsy rate was 50.2%, and PTE prevalence was 10.6%. In 212 cases, PTE was the main cause of death (fatal PTE). The independent variables selected by the regression significance criteria that were more likely to be associated with fatal PTE were age (odds ratio [OR], 1.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03), trauma (OR, 8.5; 95% CI, 2.20 to 32.81), right-sided cardiac thrombi (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.02 to 3.77), pelvic vein thrombi (OR, 3.46; 95% CI, 1.19 to 10.05); those most likely to be associated with nonfatal PTE were systemic arterial hypertension (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.80), pneumonia (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.71), and sepsis (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.40). The results obtained from the application of the equation in the 512 cases studied using logistic regression analysis suggest the range in which logit p > 0.336 favors the occurrence of fatal PTE, logit p < - 1.142 favors nonfatal PTE, and logit P with intermediate values is not conclusive. The cross-validation prediction misclassification rate was 25.6%, meaning that the prediction equation correctly classified the majority of the cases (74.4%).Conclusions: Although the usefulness of this method in everyday medical practice needs to be confirmed by a prospective study, for the time being our results suggest that concerning prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of PTE, strict attention should be given to those patients presenting the variables that are significant in the logistic regression model.

Bootstrap confidence regions for canonical variates: Application to studies of evolutionary differentiation

Theory recently developed to construct confidence regions based on the parametric bootstrap is applied to add inferential information to graphical displays of sample centroids in canonical variate analysis. Problems of morphometric differentiation among subspecies and species are addressed using numerical resampling procedures.

Induction pegylated interferon Alfa-2a and high dose ribavirin do not increase SVR in heavy patients with HCV genotype 1 and high viral loads

Background & Aims Patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1, body weight <85 kg, and high baseline viral load respond poorly to standard doses of pegylated interferon (peginterferon) and ribavirin. We evaluated intensified therapy with peginterferon alfa-2a plus ribavirin. Methods This double-blind randomized trial included HCV genotype 1-infected outpatients from hepatology clinics with body weight <85 kg and HCV RNA titer <400,000 IU/mL. Patients were randomized to 180 μg/wk peginterferon alfa-2a for 48 weeks plus 1200 mg/day ribavirin (standard of care) (group A, n = 191) or 1400/1600 mg/day ribavirin (group B, n = 189). Additional groups included 360 μg/wk peginterferon alfa-2a for 12 weeks then 180 μg/wk peginterferon alfa-2a for 36 weeks plus 1200 mg/day ribavirin (group C, n = 382) or 1400/1600 mg/day ribavirin (group D, n = 383). Follow-up lasted 24 weeks after treatment. Results Sustained virologic response rates (HCV RNA level <15 IU/mL at end of follow-up) in groups A, B, C, and D were 38%, 43%, 44%, and 41%, respectively. There were no significant differences among the 4 groups or between pooled peginterferon alfa-2a regimens (A + B vs C + D: odds ratio [OR], 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.831.39; P = .584) or pooled ribavirin regimens (A + C vs B + D: OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.791.28; P = .974). Conclusions In patients infected with HCV genotype 1 who are difficult to treat (high viral load, body weight <85 kg), a 12-week induction regimen of peginterferon alfa-2a and/or higher-dose ribavirin is not more effective than the standard regimen. © 2010 AGA Institute.