Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Mobile Application Environment and Piloting

Diplomityön tavoitteina oli antaa yleiskuva eri mobiiliteknologioistaja niihin liittyvistä käsitteistä, antaa käsitys mobiilisovellusten toimintaympäristöstä ja kuvata ja arvioda määrätyt mobiilit pilottisovellukset. Ensin työssä kerätään tietoa mobiilista ympäristöstä, laitteista, käyttöympäristöstä ja sovelluksista. Sitten työssä esitetään yleisesti mobiiliteknologiat, laitteiden eroavuudet ja erinäisiä tekijöitä, joita tulee ottaa huomioon mobiilien sovellusten kehittämisessä. Seuraavaksi työn aihepiiriin kuuluvat mobiilisovellukset on kuvattu ja pilotoitu. Lopuksi on muodostettu johtopäätökset ja suositukset sovellusten kehittämiseksi. Sovellusten pilotoinnista selvisi, että sovellusten toiminnallisuuteen eri virhetapauksissa ei ole kiinnitetty riittävästi huomiota. Lisäksi työssä pohditaan, josko kaikkien sovellusten pitäisi pohjautua Internet-teknologiaan.

Physical Activity and Snus: Is There a Link?

The study aimed at assessing the link between physical activity (PA), sports activity and snus use among young men in Switzerland. Data from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) were used to measure PA with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire and sports activity with a single item. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to measure the association between snus use, PA and sports activity. Similar models were run for smoking and snuff use. Snus use increased in a dose-response association with PA (high level: OR = 1.72; 95% CI 1.16-2.55) and with individuals exercising once a week or more often (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 1.26-2.16; p < 0.001) or almost every day (OR = 2.27; 95% CI 1.72-3.01; p < 0.001) in separate models. Entered simultaneously, only sports and exercise maintained a basically unchanged significant dose-response relationship, whereas PA became non-significant. A non-significant dose-response relation was found for cigarette smoking and snuff use, indicating that the association with sport is specific to snus and not to tobacco use in general or smokeless tobacco in particular. This study showed that the association between snus use and sports is not specific to Nordic countries.

Objectively measured physical activity and sedentary time in youth: the International children's accelerometry database (ICAD).

BACKGROUND: Physical activity and sedentary behaviour in youth have been reported to vary by sex, age, weight status and country. However, supporting data are often self-reported and/or do not encompass a wide range of ages or geographical locations. This study aimed to describe objectively-measured physical activity and sedentary time patterns in youth. METHODS: The International Children's Accelerometry Database (ICAD) consists of ActiGraph accelerometer data from 20 studies in ten countries, processed using common data reduction procedures. Analyses were conducted on 27,637 participants (2.8-18.4 years) who provided at least three days of valid accelerometer data. Linear regression was used to examine associations between age, sex, weight status, country and physical activity outcomes. RESULTS: Boys were less sedentary and more active than girls at all ages. After 5 years of age there was an average cross-sectional decrease of 4.2 % in total physical activity with each additional year of age, due mainly to lower levels of light-intensity physical activity and greater time spent sedentary. Physical activity did not differ by weight status in the youngest children, but from age seven onwards, overweight/obese participants were less active than their normal weight counterparts. Physical activity varied between samples from different countries, with a 15-20 % difference between the highest and lowest countries at age 9-10 and a 26-28 % difference at age 12-13. CONCLUSIONS: Physical activity differed between samples from different countries, but the associations between demographic characteristics and physical activity were consistently observed. Further research is needed to explore environmental and sociocultural explanations for these differences.

Perceived Barriers to Physical Activity and Related Factors in Spanish University Students

Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify the influence of readiness of change for physical activity (PA), sociodemographic factors, lifestyle and physical activity status (PAS) on perceived barriers among Spanish university students. Participants: Seven hundred and seventy two (n = 772) men and women ages 17 - 39 at a north-west regional university in Spain participated in the study. Methods: The International Physical Activity Questionnaire, the States of Change for Physical Activity Behaviour Questionnaire and the Self-perceived Barriers for Physical Activity Questionnaire were used. Description, correlation and multiple regression analyses were completed. Results: Participants self-perceived low average-score barriers (2.6 ± 1.4 over 10.0). The 3-higher scores barriers corresponded to “too much work”; “lack of time for exercise” and “laziness”. Gender, PAS and self-perceived health were shown to be associated with perceived barriers. Conclusions: University institutions should consider those factors that predict barriers to PA to develop effective intervention programs.

Effects of institutional environment and technology development on payment choice

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the combination of institutional factors and technology advances as determinants of payment systems choice. The theoretical set up suggests that countries entering into a new institutional environment approach accepting group attitudes towards payment choices as a consequence of institutional pressure and technology development. We apply the results of the model to 2004 European Union enlargement process. Results confirm the relevance of both institutional environment and technology development in retail payment system decisions of newly acceded countries.

Built environment and elderly population health: a comprehensive literature review

Global population aging over recent years has been linked to poorer health outcomes and higher healthcare expenditure. Policies focusing on healthy aging are currently being developed but a complete understanding of health determinants is needed to guide these efforts. The built environment and other external factors have been added to the International Classification of Functioning as important determinants of health and disability. Although the relationship between the built environment and health has been widely examined in working age adults, research focusing on elderly people is relatively recent. In this review, we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the evidence on the built environment and health in the elderly.

Effects of thermal environment and supplementation levels on the physiological parameters of moxotó goats in confined and semi-confined rising systems

The objective of this work was to determine the effect of environmental variables and supplementation levels on physiological parameters of Moxotó goats in confined and semi-confined rising systems, in the Brazilian semi-arid region. The semi-confined individuals were kept on a grass based diet during the day and arrested in the end of the afternoon. The confined animals were kept in a management center, receiving two diets composed by forage cactus and maniçoba hay into two different levels (0.5 and 1.5% of the body weight). Inside the management center and in the external environment the environmental comfort parameters were set high during the afternoon period characterizing a situation of thermal discomfort for the animals. During the morning the semi-confined animals presented an average respiratory frequency (69.5 mov min-1) and rectal temperature (39.5 ºC) higher than the confined ones (62.6 mov min-1 and 39.0 ºC, respectively). The confined and semi-confined animals were able to maintain their rectal temperature within normal limits, with increase in the cardiac beatings rate and respiratory frequency. The greater percentage of the used supplementations (1.5%) seemed to increase rectal temperature in the two studied rising systems.

Physical, chemical and microbiological properties of a Dystrophic Yellow Latosol using manipueira

The study aimed to evaluate chemical, microbiological and hydro-physical changes of a Dystrophic Yellow Latosol, receiver of different levels of manipueira (cassava wastewater) application, in the cultivation of 'Terra Maranhão' banana. The experimental design was a randomized block with three replications in a factorial scheme 3 x 4, in which it was considered three soil depths and four levels of manipueira. It was evaluated the weighted mean diameter of the aggregate, the percentage of aggregation at different periods, soil density, particle density, porosity and soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, in addition to pH of P (mg dm -3), K (mg dm-3), Ca (cmolc dm-3), Mg (cmolc dm-3), Ca+Mg (cmolc dm-3), Al (cmolc dm-3), Na (cmolc dm -3), H+Al (cmolc dm-3), CEC (cmolc dm-3), V%, OM (g kg-1), soil microbial biomass (Ug Cg-1 dry soil), acid phosphatase (Ug PNP g-1 h-1). The use of manipueira influenced some physical characteristic of the soil, but it was not possible to specify the effect of increasing application dosage. Therefore, the application did not affect the biological indicators assessed in the soil or its pH. The use of manipueira as a fertilizer in the doses used in this study showed low increase of K, P, H+Al and Al in the soil and a good increase of Mg, Ca and Ca+Mg, Na, CEC and V%.

Kirja-arvostelu : Physical therapy and massage for the horse

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Effects of physical activity and fitness on the psychological wellbeing of young men and working adults: associations with stress, mental resources, overweight and workability

Background: A positive association has been suggested to exist between physical activity and psychological wellbeing. However, the association between physical fitness, especially muscle fitness and psychological wellbeing, has not yet been fully elucidated. Aims: The objective of the present thesis was to assess the relationship between physical activity and physical fitness with stress symptoms, mental resources and workability among young men and working adults. Subjects and methods: Volunteers of young men (n=831, mean age 25-y (±4.0)), underwent a cardiorespiratory (CRF) and muscle fitness (MFI) test and completed leisure time physical activity (LTPA) and Occupational Stress Questionnaires (OSQ). The participants were divided into tertiles according to LTPA, CRF and MFI. A 12-month exercise intervention evaluated 371 working adults (exercise group, n=338, mean age 45-y (±8.8)); control group, n=33, mean age 41-y (±6.9)).The exercise group underwent a 12-month exercise program followed by a 12-month follow-up. The OSQ, Workability Index (WAI) and CRF were evaluated at baseline and at 4, 8, 12 and 24 months. Results: Physically inactive subjects reported more stress and less available mental resources than the subjects who reported high physical activity levels. Improved physical fitness was associated with less stress and more mental resources among normal weight men, but not in overweight men. After a 12-month exercise intervention, employees in the exercise group increased their physical activity, improved workability, decreased stress symptoms and improved their physical fitness and mental resources. After the follow-up year, workability and stress were improved compared to baseline. Conclusions: In this thesis, good physical fitness was associated with improved psychological wellbeing among young men and working adults.

Novel virtual environment and real-time simulation based methods for improving life-cycle efficiency of non-road mobile machinery

Virtual environments and real-time simulators (VERS) are becoming more and more important tools in research and development (R&D) process of non-road mobile machinery (NRMM). The virtual prototyping techniques enable faster and more cost-efficient development of machines compared to use of real life prototypes. High energy efficiency has become an important topic in the world of NRMM because of environmental and economic demands. The objective of this thesis is to develop VERS based methods for research and development of NRMM. A process using VERS for assessing effects of human operators on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM was developed. Human in the loop simulations are ran using an underground mining loader to study the developed process. The simulations were ran in the virtual environment of the Laboratory of Intelligent Machines of Lappeenranta University of Technology. A physically adequate real-time simulation model of NRMM was shown to be reliable and cost effective in testing of hardware components by the means of hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations. A control interface connecting integrated electro-hydraulic energy converter (IEHEC) with virtual simulation model of log crane was developed. IEHEC consists of a hydraulic pump-motor and an integrated electrical permanent magnet synchronous motorgenerator. The results show that state of the art real-time NRMM simulators are capable to solve factors related to energy consumption and productivity of the NRMM. A significant variation between the test drivers is found. The results show that VERS can be used for assessing human effects on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM. HIL simulation responses compared to that achieved with conventional simulation method demonstrate the advances and drawbacks of various possible interfaces between the simulator and hardware part of the system under study. Novel ideas for arranging the interface are successfully tested and compared with the more traditional one. The proposed process for assessing the effects of operators on the life-cycle efficiency will be applied for wider group of operators in the future. Driving styles of the operators can be analysed statistically from sufficient large result data. The statistical analysis can find the most life-cycle efficient driving style for the specific environment and machinery. The proposed control interface for HIL simulation need to be further studied. The robustness and the adaptation of the interface in different situations must be verified. The future work will also include studying the suitability of the IEHEC for different working machines using the proposed HIL simulation method.

Effects of type of physical exercise and leisure activities on the depression scores of obese Brazilian adolescent girls

Several studies have indicated that depressive states may lead to hypokinesia with diminished metabolic rate and energy use. Hypokinesia associated with certain eating behaviors may lead to an unfavorable energy balance that can contribute to the emergence and prevalence of obesity among children and adults. The purpose of the present study was to examine the possibility of reducing depression inventory scores in female adolescents with third-degree obesity while testing the effectiveness of different exercise programs in reducing anxiety and depression scores. The sample consisted of 40 female subjects (mean age 16 ± 1.56 years) divided into 4 groups (aerobic training, anaerobic training, leisure activities, and control). Subjects had a body mass index of 95% or more in relation to the 50th percentile. The aerobic program consisted of three ergometric bicycle sessions per week over a 3-month period (12 weeks) and the activities were prescribed after determining the anaerobic ventilatory threshold (VO2 threshold). Anaerobic training was based on the Wingate anaerobic power test. The leisure program consisted of a varied range of activities (games, exercises, etc.). A nutritionist interviewed the members of these two groups and the control group every week in order to adapt them to the nutritional guidelines proposed for the study. The study showed that all three programs (aerobic exercise, anaerobic exercise and leisure activities) were effective in reducing body mass. However, we found a significant reduction when analyzing the depression scores only for aerobic exercise (18.9 ± 9.33 to 10.6 ± 9.56 or 43.9%) but no significant alterations for anaerobic exercise (11.36 ± 5.23 to 9.63 ± 4.78 or 15.22%) and leisure (17.28 ± 7.55 to 15.07 ± 7.54 or 12.78%), thus indicating that in principle this type of activity could be included to improve emotional well-being of obese adolescent girls.