Valuation accuracy: reconciling the timing of the valuation and sale

Carsberg (2002) suggested that the periodic valuation accuracy studies undertaken by, amongst others, IPD/Drivers Jonas (2003) should be undertaken every year and be sponsored by the RICS, which acts as the self-regulating body for valuations in the UK. This paper does not address the wider issues concerning the nature of properties which are sold and whether the sale prices are influenced by prior valuations, but considers solely the technical issues concerning the timing of the valuation and sales data. This study uses valuations and sales data from the Investment Property Databank UK Monthly Index to attempt to identify the date that sale data is divulged to valuers. This information will inform accuracy studies that use a cut-off date as to the closeness of valuations to sales completion date as a yardstick for excluding data from the analysis. It will also, assuming valuers are informed quickly of any agreed sales, help to determine the actual sale agreed date rather than the completion date, which includes a period of due diligence between when the sale is agreed and its completion. Valuations should be updated to this date, rather than the formal completion date, if a reliable measure of valuation accuracy is to be determined. An accuracy study is then undertaken using a variety of updating periods and the differences between the results are examined. The paper concludes that the sale only becomes known to valuers in the month prior to the sale taking place and that this assumes either that sales due diligence procedures are shortening or valuers are not told quickly of agreed sale prices. Studies that adopt a four-month cut-off date for any valuations compared to sales completion dates are over cautious, and this could be reduced to two months without compromising the data.

Timing and the holding periods of institutional real estate

The literature on investors’ holding periods for equities and bonds suggest that high transaction costs are associated with longer holding periods. Return volatility, by contrast, is associated with short-term trading and hence shorter holding periods. High transaction costs and the perceived illiquidity of the real estate market leads to an expectation of longer holding periods. Further, work on depreciation and obsolescence might suggest that there is an optimal holding period. However, there is little empirical work in the area. In this paper, data from the Investment Property Databank are used to investigate sales rate and holding period for UK institutional real estate between 1981 and 1994. Sales rates are investigated using the Cox proportional hazards framework. The results show longer holding periods than those claimed by investors. There are marked differences by type of property and sales rates vary over time. Contemporaneous returns are positively associated with an increase in the rate of sale. The results shed light on investor behaviour.

The timing and selection ability of UK property funds: an empirical investigation

This paper examines the selectivity and market timing performance of a sample of 21 UK property funds over the period Q3 1977 through to Q2 1987. The main finding of which that there is evidence of some superior selectivity performance on the part of UK property funds but that there are few funds who are able to successfully time the market.

Timing and climatic imprint of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from Northern Turkey

A 50 kyr-long exceptionally well-dated and highly resolved stalagmite oxygen (δ 18O) and carbon (δ 13C) isotope record from Sofular Cave in northwestern Turkey helps to further improve the dating of Greenland Interstadials (GI) 1, and 3–12. Timing of most GI in the Sofular record is consistent within ±10 to 300 years with the “iconic” Hulu Cave record. Larger divergences (>500 years) between Sofular and Hulu are only observed for GI 4 and 7. The Sofular record differs from the most recent NGRIP chronology by up to several centuries, whereas age offsets do not increase systematically with depth. The Sofular record also reveals a rapid and sensitive climate and ecosystem response in the eastern Mediterranean to GI, whereas a phase lag of ∼100 years between climate and full ecosystem response is evident. Finally, results of spectral analyses of the Sofular isotope records do not support a 1,470-year pacing of GI.

Timing and structure of the 8.2 kyr B.P. event inferred from δ18O records of stalagmites from China, Oman, and Brazil

Oxygen isotope records of stalagmites from China and Oman reveal a weak summer monsoon event, with a double-plunging structure, that started 8.21 ± 0.02 kyr B.P. An identical but antiphased pattern is also evident in two stalagmite records from eastern Brazil, indicating that the South American Summer Monsoon was intensified during the 8.2 kyr B.P. event. These records demonstrate that the event was of global extent and synchronous within dating errors of <50 years. In comparison with recent model simulations, it is plausible that the 8.2 kyr B.P. event can be tied in changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation triggered by a glacial lake draining event. This, in turn, affected North Atlantic climate and latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, resulting in the observed low-latitude monsoonal precipitation patterns.

Timing and localization of ionospheric signatures associated with substorm expansion phase onset

In this paper, we present case studies of the optical and magnetic signatures of the characteristics of the first minute of substorm expansion phase onset observed in the ionosphere. We find that for two isolated substorms, the onset of magnetic pulsations in the 24–96 s period wavelet band are colocated in time and space with the formation and development of small-scale optical undulations along the most equatorward preexisting auroral arc prior to auroral breakup. These undulations undergo an inverse spatial cascade into vortices prior to the release of the westward traveling surge. We also present a case study of a multiple activation substorm, whereby discrete onsets of ULF wave power above a predetermined quiet time threshold are shown to be associated with specific optical intensifications and brightenings. Moreover, in the multiple activation substorm event, we show that neither the formation of the small-scale undulations nor the formation of similar structures along a north–south aligned arc is sufficient to produce auroral breakup associated with expansion phase onset. It is only ∼10 min after these two disparate activation regions initiate that auroral breakup and the subsequent formation of a westward traveling surge occur. We discuss the implications of these results in terms of the triggering mechanisms likely to be occurring during these specific events.

The timing of island effects in nonnative sentence processing

Using the eye-movement monitoring technique in two reading comprehension experiments, we investigated the timing of constraints on wh-dependencies (so-called ‘island’ constraints) in native and nonnative sentence processing. Our results show that both native and nonnative speakers of English are sensitive to extraction islands during processing, suggesting that memory storage limitations affect native and nonnative comprehenders in essentially the same way. Furthermore, our results show that the timing of island effects in native compared to nonnative sentence comprehension is affected differently by the type of cue (semantic fit versus filled gaps) signalling whether dependency formation is possible at a potential gap site. Whereas English native speakers showed immediate sensitivity to filled gaps but not to lack of semantic fit, proficient German-speaking learners of L2 English showed the opposite sensitivity pattern. This indicates that initial wh-dependency formation in nonnative processing is based on semantic feature-matching rather than being structurally mediated as in native comprehension.

Processing reflexives in a second language: the timing of structural and discourse-level information

We report the results from two eye-movement monitoring experiments examining the processing of reflexive pronouns by proficient German-speaking learners of second language (L2) English. Our results show that the nonnative speakers initially tried to link English argument reflexives to a discourse-prominent but structurally inaccessible antecedent, thereby violating binding condition A. Our native speaker controls, in contrast, showed evidence of applying condition A immediately during processing. Together, our findings show that L2 learners’ initial focusing on a structurally inaccessible antecedent cannot be due to first language influence and is also independent of whether the inaccessible antecedent c-commands the reflexive. This suggests that unlike native speakers, nonnative speakers of English initially attempt to interpret reflexives through discourse-based coreference assignment rather than syntactic binding.

Late Quaternary highstands at Lake Chilwa, Malawi: frequency, timing and possible forcing mechanisms in the last 44ka

The extensive shoreline deposits of Lake Chilwa, southern Malawi, a shallow water body today covering 600 km2 of a basin of 7500 km2, are investigated for their record of late Quaternary highstands. OSL dating, applied to 36 samples from five sediment cores from the northern and western marginal sand ridges, reveal a highstand record spanning 44 ka. Using two different grouping methods, highstand phases are identified at 43.7–33.3 ka, 26.2–21.0 ka and 17.9–12.0 ka (total error method) or 38.4–35.5 ka, 24.3–22.3 ka, 16.2–15.1 ka and 13.5–12.7 ka (Finite Mixture Model age components) with two further discrete events recorded at 11.01 ± 0.76 ka and 8.52 ± 0.56 ka. Highstands are comparable to the timing of wet phases from other basins in East and southern Africa, demonstrating wet conditions in the region before the LGM, which was dry, and a wet Lateglacial, which commenced earlier in the southern compared to northern hemisphere in East Africa. We find no evidence that wet phases are insolation driven, but analysis of the dataset and GCM modelling experiments suggest that Heinrich events may be associated with enhanced monsoon activity in East Africa in both timing and as a possible causal mechanism.

Linguistic and cognitive motivations for the typological primacy model of third language (L3) transfer: considering the role of timing of acquisition and proficiency in the previous languages

This article elucidates the Typological Primacy Model (TPM; Rothman, 2010, 2011, 2013) for the initial stages of adult third language (L3) morphosyntactic transfer, addressing questions that stem from the model and its application. The TPM maintains that structural proximity between the L3 and the L1 and/or the L2 determines L3 transfer. In addition to demonstrating empirical support for the TPM, this article articulates a proposal for how the mind unconsciously determines typological (structural) proximity based on linguistic cues from the L3 input stream used by the parser early on to determine holistic transfer of one previous (the L1 or the L2) system. This articulated version of the TPM is motivated by argumentation appealing to cognitive and linguistic factors. Finally, in line with the general tenets of the TPM, I ponder if and why L3 transfer might obtain differently depending on the type of bilingual (e.g. early vs. late) and proficiency level of bilingualism involved in the L3 process.

The timing and societal synchronisation of energy demand

It is increasingly important to know about when energy is used in the home, at work and on the move. Issues of time and timing have not featured strongly in energy policy analysis and in modelling, much of which has focused on estimating and reducing total average annual demand per capita. If smarter ways of balancing supply and demand are to take hold, and if we are to make better use of decarbonised forms of supply, it is essential to understand and intervene in patterns of societal synchronisation. This calls for detailed knowledge of when, and on what occasions many people engage in the same activities at the same time, of how such patterns are changing, and of how might they be shaped. In addition, the impact of smart meters and controls partly depends on whether there is, in fact scope for shifting the timing of what people do, and for changing the rhythm of the day. Is the scheduling of daily life an arena that policy can influence, and if so how? The DEMAND Centre has been linking time use, energy consumption and travel diary data as a means of addressing these questions and in this working paper we present some of the issues and results arising from that exercise.