Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species' distribution and abundance changes

The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population “forcing” (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species’ responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized.

Interactions between climate change and land use change on biodiversity: attribution problems, risks, and opportunities

Global change drivers are known to interact in their effects on biodiversity, but much research to date ignores this complexity. As a consequence, there are problems in the attribution of biodiversity change to different drivers and, therefore, our ability to manage habitats and landscapes appropriately. Few studies explicitly acknowledge and account for interactive (i.e., nonadditive) effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity. One reason is that the mechanisms by which drivers interact are poorly understood. We evaluate such mechanisms, including interactions between demographic parameters, evolutionary trade-offs and synergies and threshold effects of population size and patch occupancy on population persistence. Other reasons for the lack of appropriate research are limited data availability and analytical issues in addressing interaction effects. We highlight the influence that attribution errors can have on biodiversity projections and discuss experimental designs and analytical tools suited to this challenge. Finally, we summarize the risks and opportunities provided by the existence of interaction effects. Risks include ineffective conservation management; but opportunities also arise, whereby the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity can be reduced through appropriate land management as an adaptation measure. We hope that increasing the understanding of key mechanisms underlying interaction effects and discussing appropriate experimental and analytical designs for attribution will help researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners to better minimize risks and exploit opportunities provided by land use-climate change interactions.

Behavioral economics, wearable devices, and cooperative games: results from a population-based intervention to increase physical activity

Background: Health care literature supports the development of accessible interventions that integrate behavioral economics, wearable devices, principles of evidence-based behavior change, and community support. However, there are limited real-world examples of large scale, population-based, member-driven reward platforms. Subsequently, a paucity of outcome data exists and health economic effects remain largely theoretical. To complicate matters, an emerging area of research is defining the role of Superusers, the small percentage of unusually engaged digital health participants who may influence other members. Objective: The objective of this preliminary study is to analyze descriptive data from GOODcoins, a self-guided, free-to-consumer engagement and rewards platform incentivizing walking, running and cycling. Registered members accessed the GOODcoins platform through PCs, tablets or mobile devices, and had the opportunity to sync wearables to track activity. Following registration, members were encouraged to join gamified group challenges and compare their progress with that of others. As members met challenge targets, they were rewarded with GOODcoins, which could be redeemed for planet- or people-friendly products. Methods: Outcome data were obtained from the GOODcoins custom SQL database. The reporting period was December 1, 2014 to May 1, 2015. Descriptive self-report data were analyzed using MySQL and MS Excel. Results: The study period includes data from 1298 users who were connected to an exercise tracking device. Females consisted of 52.6% (n=683) of the study population, 33.7% (n=438) were between the ages of 20-29, and 24.8% (n=322) were between the ages of 30-39. 77.5% (n=1006) of connected and active members met daily-recommended physical activity guidelines of 30 minutes, with a total daily average activity of 107 minutes (95% CI 90, 124). Of all connected and active users, 96.1% (n=1248) listed walking as their primary activity. For members who exchanged GOODcoins, the mean balance was 4,000 (95% CI 3850, 4150) at time of redemption, and 50.4% (n=61) of exchanges were for fitness or outdoor products, while 4.1% (n=5) were for food-related items. Participants were most likely to complete challenges when rewards were between 201-300 GOODcoins. Conclusions: The purpose of this study is to form a baseline for future research. Overall, results indicate that challenges and incentives may be effective for connected and active members, and may play a role in achieving daily-recommended activity guidelines. Registrants were typically younger, walking was the primary activity, and rewards were mainly exchanged for fitness or outdoor products. Remaining to be determined is whether members were already physically active at time of registration and are representative of healthy adherers, or were previously inactive and were incentivized to change their behavior. As challenges are gamified, there is an opportunity to investigate the role of superusers and healthy adherers, impacts on behavioral norms, and how cooperative games and incentives can be leveraged across stratified populations. Study limitations and future research agendas are discussed.

Alternative diagnostic diagrams and the `forgotten` population of weak line galaxies in the SDSS

A numerous population of weak line galaxies (WLGs) is often left out of statistical studies on emission-line galaxies (ELGs) due to the absence of an adequate classification scheme, since classical diagnostic diagrams, such as [O iii]/H beta versus [N ii]/H alpha (the BPT diagram), require the measurement of at least four emission lines. This paper aims to remedy this situation by transposing the usual divisory lines between star-forming (SF) galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGN) hosts and between Seyferts and LINERs to diagrams that are more economical in terms of line quality requirements. By doing this, we rescue from the classification limbo a substantial number of sources and modify the global census of ELGs. More specifically, (1) we use the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 to constitute a suitable sample of 280 000 ELGs, one-third of which are WLGs. (2) Galaxies with strong emission lines are classified using the widely applied criteria of Kewley et al., Kauffmann et al. and Stasinska et al. to distinguish SF galaxies and AGN hosts and Kewley et al. to distinguish Seyferts from LINERs. (3) We transpose these classification schemes to alternative diagrams keeping [N ii]/H alpha as a horizontal axis, but replacing H beta by a stronger line (H alpha or [O ii]), or substituting the ionization-level sensitive [O iii]/H beta ratio with the equivalent width of H alpha (W(H alpha)). Optimized equations for the transposed divisory lines are provided. (4) We show that nothing significant is lost in the translation, but that the new diagrams allow one to classify up to 50 per cent more ELGs. (5) Introducing WLGs in the census of galaxies in the local Universe increases the proportion of metal-rich SF galaxies and especially LINERs. In the course of this analysis, we were led to make the following points. (i) The Kewley et al. BPT line for galaxy classification is generally ill-used. (ii) Replacing [O iii]/H beta by W(H alpha) in the classification introduces a change in the philosophy of the distinction between LINERs and Seyferts, but not in its results. Because the W(H alpha) versus [N ii]/H alpha diagram can be applied to the largest sample of ELGs without loss of discriminating power between Seyferts and LINERs, we recommend its use in further studies. (iii) The dichotomy between Seyferts and LINERs is washed out by WLGs in the BPT plane, but it subsists in other diagnostic diagrams. This suggests that the right wing in the BPT diagram is indeed populated by at least two classes, tentatively identified with bona fide AGN and `retired` galaxies that have stopped forming stars and are ionized by their old stellar populations.

An analysis of the composite stellar population in M32

We obtained long-slit spectra of high signal-to-noise ratio of the galaxy M32 with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph at the Gemini-North telescope. We analysed the integrated spectra by means of full spectral fitting in order to extract the mixture of stellar populations that best represents its composite nature. Three different galactic radii were analysed, from the nuclear region out to 2 arcmin from the centre. This allows us to compare, for the first time, the results of integrated light spectroscopy with those of resolved colour-magnitude diagrams from the literature. As a main result we propose that an ancient and an intermediate-age population co-exist in M32, and that the balance between these two populations change between the nucleus and outside one effective radius (1r(eff)) in the sense that the contribution from the intermediate population is larger at the nuclear region. We retrieve a smaller signal of a young population at all radii whose origin is unclear and may be a contamination from horizontal branch stars, such as the ones identified by Brown et al. in the nuclear region. We compare our metallicity distribution function for a region 1 to 2 arcmin from the centre to the one obtained with photometric data by Grillmair et al. Both distributions are broad, but our spectroscopically derived distribution has a significant component with [Z/Z(circle dot)] <= -1, which is not found by Grillmair et al.

Population and Computational Analysis of the MGEA6 P521A Variation as a Risk Factor for Familial Idiopathic Basal Ganglia Calcification (Fahr`s Disease)

Familial idiopathic basal ganglia calcification, also known as ""Fahr`s disease"" (FD), is a neuropsychiatric disorder with autosomal dominant pattern of inheritance and characterized by symmetric basal ganglia calcifications and, occasionally, other brain regions. Currently, there are three loci linked to this devastating disease. The first one (IBGC1) is located in 14q11.2-21.3 and the other two have been identified in 2q37 (IBGC2) and 8p21.1-q11.13 (IBGC3). Further studies identified a heterozygous variation (rs36060072) which consists in the change of the cytosine to guanine located at MGEA6/CTAGE5 gene, present in all of the affected large American family linked to IBGC1. This missense substitution, which induces changes of a proline to alanine at the 521 position (P521A), in a proline-rich and highly conserved protein domain was considered a rare variation, with a minor allele frequency (MAF) of 0.0058 at the US population. Considering that the population frequency of a given variation is an indirect indicative of potential pathogenicity, we screened 200 chromosomes in a random control set of Brazilian samples and in two nuclear families, comparing with our previous analysis in a US population. In addition, we accomplished analyses through bioinformatics programs to predict the pathogenicity of such variation. Our genetic screen found no P521A carriers. Polling these data together with the previous study in the USA, we have now a MAF of 0.0036, showing that this mutation is very rare. On the other hand, the bioinformatics analysis provided conflicting findings. There are currently various candidate genes and loci that could be involved with the underlying molecular basis of FD etiology, and other groups suggested the possible role played by genes in 2q37, related to calcium metabolism, and at chromosome 8 (NRG1 and SNTG1). Additional mutagenesis and in vivo studies are necessary to confirm the pathogenicity for variation in the P521A MGEA6.

Coalescent analysis of mtDNA indicates Pleistocene divergence among three species of howler monkey (Alouatta spp.) and population subdivision within the Atlantic Coastal Forest species, A. guariba

We have used coalescent analysis of mtDNA cytochrome b (cyt b) sequences to estimate times of divergence of three species of Alouatta-A. caraya, A. belzebul, and A. guariba-which are in close geographic proximity. A. caraya is inferred to have diverged from the A. guariba/A. belzebul clade approximately 3.83 million years ago (MYA), with the later pair diverging approximately 1.55 MYA. These dates are much more recent than previous dates based on molecular-clock methods. In addition, analyses of new sequences from the Atlantic Coastal Forest species A. guariba indicate the presence of two distinct haplogroups corresponding to northern and southern populations with both haplogroups occurring in sympatry within Sao Paulo state. The time of divergence of these two haplogroups is estimated to be 1.2 MYA and so follows quite closely after the divergence of A. guariba and A. belzebul. These more recent dates point to the importance of Pleistocene environmental events as important factors in the diversification of A. belzebul and A. guariba. We discuss the diversification of the three Alouatta species in the context of recent models of climatic change and with regard to recent molecular phylogeographic analyses of other animal groups distributed in Brazil.

Nutrition in Transition: Dietary Patterns of Rural Amazonian Women During a Period of Economic Change

Objectives: The goal of this study was to understand the relationship between economic change (wage labor, retirement, and the Bolsa Familia program) and dietary patterns in the rural Amazon and to determine the extent to which these changes followed the pattern of the nutrition transition. Methods: The study was longitudinal. The weighed-inventory method and economic interviews were used to collect data on dietary intake and household economics in a sample of 30 and 52 women in 2002 and 2009, respectively. Twenty of the women participated in both years and make-up the longitudinal sub-sample. Comparative statistics were used to identify changes in dietary patterns over time and multiple linear regressions were used to explore the relationship between economics, subsistence strategies, and diet. Results: There was a significant decline in kcal (P < 0.01) and carbohydrate (P < 0.01) but no change in protein intake over time in both the larger and smaller, longitudinal subsample. The percent of energy, carbohydrate, protein, and fat purchased increased in the larger and longitudinal samples (P <= 0.02) and there was an increase in refined carbohydrate and processed, fatty-meat consumption over time. The abandonment of manioc gardens was associated with increased dependence on purchased food (P = 0.03) while receipt of the Bolsa Familia was associated with increased protein intake and adequacy (P = 0.02). Conclusions: The dietary changes observed are only in partial agreement with predictions of the nutrition transition literature. The relationship between the economic and diet changes was shaped by the local context which should be considered when implementing CCT programs, like the Bolsa Familia. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 23:458-469, 2011. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

POSTMARITAL RESIDENCE PRACTICE IN SOUTHERN BRAZILIAN COASTAL GROUPS: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

The coastal plains of the States of Parana and Santa Catarina, in Southern Brazil, were first settled around 6000 B.P. by shellmound builders, a successful fisher-hunter-gatherer population that inhabited the coastal lowlands practically unchanged for almost five thousand years. Shellmounds were typically occupied as residential sites as well as cemeteries, and are usually associated with rich alimentary zones. Around 1200 B.P., the first evidence of ceramics brought from the interior is found in coastal areas, and together with ceramics there is a progressive abandonment of shellmound construction in favor of flat cold shallow sites. Here we consider if these changes were reflected in the postmarital residence practice of coastal groups, i.e., if the arrival or intensification of contact with groups from the interior resulted in changes in this aspect of social structure among the coastal groups. To test the postmarital residence practice we analyzed within-group variability ratios between males and females, following previous studies on the topic. and between-group, correlations between Mahalanobis distances and geographic distances. The results suggest that in the pre-ceramic series a matrilocal, postmarital residential system predominated, while in the ceramic period there was a shift toward patrilocality. This favors the hypothesis that the changes experienced by coastal groups after 1200 B.P. affected not only their economy and material culture, but important aspects of their sociopolitical organization as well.

Patriarchal values : girls are more apt to change

Patriarchal values: girls are more apt to change How has the family value system changed between generations, especially when taking into account the gender dimension? This article presents some results from a study carried outin 2007 in one village of the Gourani tribe where the people are followers of Ahle Hagh in Islamabad Gharb (west of Iran). The differences between generations (those born and raised before and after the Islamic Revolution) in patriarchal values in the family are statistically significant. The older generation opts for the man of the family to make most of the decisions; on children’s education, marriage, naming, the families expenditure, the place for residence, the social network of the family and even the number of children. The younger generation has a different value system and it has moved towards a more egalitarian type of family. With the gender variable included in the findings we see that although the values of the younger male population have evolved toward a less patriarchal decision making structure inthe family, the degree of changes among the young women is much higher. Looking into the preferences for male sex for the first child as well as a larger number of boys in the family, the difference between generations is significant. However data on the differences analyzed with the gender variable proves that the changes concerning the equality of sexes are mainly due to drastic changes in the young women’s value system. That is, the male population, young or old, still prefer to have a boy as their first born and to have more sons in the family. But the young female generation in the rural area sees less difference in having boys or girls in the family. It is concluded that reforms in the old value system is an evolving process of everyday life and that the girls are the main social force for change.

Climate Change and its Effects on Polar Bears

Polar bears are key indicators of the effects of climate change on the arctic ecosystem, because their existence is directly related to the sea ice habitat, where they hunt. As the Arctic continues to warm, their habitat will be reduced further and local extinction is likely to occur, especially in southern populations.

Genetic diversity and population structure of pumas (Puma concolor) in southeastern Brazil: implications for conservation in a human-dominated landscape

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Relative growth, morphological sexual maturity, and size of Macrobrachium amazonicum (Heller 1862) (Crustacea, Decapoda, Palaemonidae) in a population with an entirely freshwater life cycle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population dynamics of Musca domestica (Diptera: Muscidae): experimental and theoretical studies at different temperatures

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population dynamics, structure and behavior of Anopheles darlingi in a rural settlement in the Amazon rainforest of Acre, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)