The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models

This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and optical properties. The diversity of the global OA simulation results has increased since earlier AeroCom experiments, mainly due to the increasing complexity of the SOA parameterization in models, and the implementation of new, highly uncertain, OA sources. Diversity of over one order of magnitude exists in the modeled vertical distribution of OA concentrations that deserves a dedicated future study. Furthermore, although the OA / OC ratio depends on OA sources and atmospheric processing, and is important for model evaluation against OA and OC observations, it is resolved only by a few global models. The median global primary OA (POA) source strength is 56 Tg a−1 (range 34–144 Tg a−1) and the median SOA source strength (natural and anthropogenic) is 19 Tg a−1 (range 13–121 Tg a−1). Among the models that take into account the semi-volatile SOA nature, the median source is calculated to be 51 Tg a−1 (range 16–121 Tg a−1), much larger than the median value of the models that calculate SOA in a more simplistic way (19 Tg a−1; range 13–20 Tg a−1, with one model at 37 Tg a−1). The median atmospheric burden of OA is 1.4 Tg (24 models in the range of 0.6–2.0 Tg and 4 between 2.0 and 3.8 Tg), with a median OA lifetime of 5.4 days (range 3.8–9.6 days). In models that reported both OA and sulfate burdens, the median value of the OA/sulfate burden ratio is calculated to be 0.77; 13 models calculate a ratio lower than 1, and 9 models higher than 1. For 26 models that reported OA deposition fluxes, the median wet removal is 70 Tg a−1 (range 28–209 Tg a−1), which is on average 85% of the total OA deposition. Fine aerosol organic carbon (OC) and OA observations from continuous monitoring networks and individual field campaigns have been used for model evaluation. At urban locations, the model–observation comparison indicates missing knowledge on anthropogenic OA sources, both strength and seasonality. The combined model–measurements analysis suggests the existence of increased OA levels during summer due to biogenic SOA formation over large areas of the USA that can be of the same order of magnitude as the POA, even at urban locations, and contribute to the measured urban seasonal pattern. Global models are able to simulate the high secondary character of OA observed in the atmosphere as a result of SOA formation and POA aging, although the amount of OA present in the atmosphere remains largely underestimated, with a mean normalized bias (MNB) equal to −0.62 (−0.51) based on the comparison against OC (OA) urban data of all models at the surface, −0.15 (+0.51) when compared with remote measurements, and −0.30 for marine locations with OC data. The mean temporal correlations across all stations are low when compared with OC (OA) measurements: 0.47 (0.52) for urban stations, 0.39 (0.37) for remote stations, and 0.25 for marine stations with OC data. The combination of high (negative) MNB and higher correlation at urban stations when compared with the low MNB and lower correlation at remote sites suggests that knowledge about the processes that govern aerosol processing, transport and removal, on top of their sources, is important at the remote stations. There is no clear change in model skill with increasing model complexity with regard to OC or OA mass concentration. However, the complexity is needed in models in order to distinguish between anthropogenic and natural OA as needed for climate mitigation, and to calculate the impact of OA on climate accurately.

An evaluation of decadal probability forecasts from state-of-the-art climate models

While state-of-the-art models of Earth's climate system have improved tremendously over the last 20 years, nontrivial structural flaws still hinder their ability to forecast the decadal dynamics of the Earth system realistically. Contrasting the skill of these models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which simulation models exploit their physical basis effectively and quantify their ability to add information to operational forecasts. The skill of decadal probabilistic hindcasts for annual global-mean and regional-mean temperatures from the EU Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) project is contrasted with several empirical models. Both the ENSEMBLES models and a “dynamic climatology” empirical model show probabilistic skill above that of a static climatology for global-mean temperature. The dynamic climatology model, however, often outperforms the ENSEMBLES models. The fact that empirical models display skill similar to that of today's state-of-the-art simulation models suggests that empirical forecasts can improve decadal forecasts for climate services, just as in weather, medium-range, and seasonal forecasting. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models becomes a regular component of large model forecast evaluations. Doing so would clarify the extent to which state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models and clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. Ultimately, the skill of simulation models based on physical principles is expected to surpass that of empirical models in a changing climate; their direct comparison provides information on progress toward that goal, which is not available in model–model intercomparisons.

Consumers perception and evaluation of fresh cut buying attributes: a survey on the Italian market

During the last twenty years, consumer choice in high income countries is no longer merely dictated by price and the organoleptic characteristics of a product, but also by other features some of which are not patently tangible. The growing importance of such attributes in the process of consumer choice is not only due to income increase, but also to changes in lifestyle such as migrations from the countryside, a generalized urbanization and consequential city life style, female emancipation and work outside the domestic walls for women, the drastic decrease in hard physical labor and the process of internationalization. The present survey study aims to explore the importance that Italian consumers give to fresh cut buying attributes and which of these attributes should be taken into consideration by industries in order to satisfy the needs of the most critical shoppers. Where possible, market and survey data for fresh cut products will be compared with those for cooked products and before presenting the results and conclusions of the study, the technical issues of processing will be highlighted owing to the fact that they affect the marketing of these products, the recent market situation with regard to consumption will be illustrated and the methodology used will be described.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of three components of a model-evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20-day hindcasts, initialised daily during two MJO events in winter 2009-10. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days' lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8-11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic-heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to mid-level moistening at moderate rainfall and upper-level moistening for heavy rainfall. The mid-level moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary, but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Fabrication and evaluation of a skutterudite-based thermoelectric module for high-temperature applications

We report a straightforward methodology for the fabrication of high-temperature thermoelectric (TE) modules using commercially available solder alloys and metal barriers. This methodology employs standard and accessible facilities that are simple to implement in any laboratory. A TE module formed by nine n-type Yb x Co4Sb12 and p-type Ce x Fe3CoSb12 state-of-the-art skutterudite material couples was fabricated. The physical properties of the synthesized skutterudites were determined, and the module power output, internal resistance, and thermocycling stability were evaluated in air. At a temperature difference of 365 K, the module provides more than 1.5 W cm−3 volume power density. However, thermocycling showed an increase of the internal module resistance and degradation in performance with the number of cycles when the device is operated at a hot-side temperature higher than 573 K. This may be attributed to oxidation of the skutterudite thermoelements.

Evaluation of optical techniques for characterising soil organic matter quality in agricultural soils

Soil organic matter (SOM) is one of the main global carbon pools. It is a measure of soil quality as its presence increases carbon sequestration and improves physical and chemical soil properties. The determination and characterisation of humic substances gives essential information of the maturity and stresses of soils as well as of their health. However, the determination of the exact nature and molecular structure of these substances has been proven difficult. Several complex techniques exist to characterise SOM and mineralisation and humification processes. One of the more widely accepted for its accuracy is nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Despite its efficacy, NMR needs significant economic resources, equipment, material and time. Proxy measures like the fluorescence index (FI), cold and hot-water extractable carbon (CWC and HWC) and SUVA-254 have the potential to characterise SOM and, in combination, provide qualitative and quantitative data of SOM and its processes. Spanish and British agricultural cambisols were used to measure SOM quality and determine whether similarities were found between optical techniques and 1H NMR results in these two regions with contrasting climatic conditions. High correlations (p < 0.001) were found between the specific aromatic fraction measured with 1H NMR and SUVA-254 (Rs = 0.95) and HWC (Rs = 0.90), which could be described using a linear model. A high correlation between FI and the aromatics fraction measured with 1H NMR (Rs = −0.976) was also observed. In view of our results, optical measures have a potential, in combination, to predict the aromatic fraction of SOM without the need of expensive and time consuming techniques.

Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good’s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average “distance” between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.

Evaluation of sensor configurations for robotic surgical instruments

Designing surgical instruments for robotic-assisted minimally-invasive surgery (RAMIS) is challenging due to constraints on the number and type of sensors imposed by considerations such as space or the need for sterilization. A new method for evaluating the usability of virtual teleoperated surgical instruments based on virtual sensors is presented. This method uses virtual prototyping of the surgical instrument with a dual physical interaction, which allows testing of different sensor configurations in a real environment. Moreover, the proposed approach has been applied to the evaluation of prototypes of a two-finger grasper for lump detection by remote pinching. In this example, the usability of a set of five different sensor configurations, with a different number of force sensors, is evaluated in terms of quantitative and qualitative measures in clinical experiments with 23 volunteers. As a result, the smallest number of force sensors needed in the surgical instrument that ensures the usability of the device can be determined. The details of the experimental setup are also included.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

Closed-loop feedback computation model of dynamical reputation based on the local trust evaluation in business-to-consumer e-commerce

Trust and reputation are important factors that influence the success of both traditional transactions in physical social networks and modern e-commerce in virtual Internet environments. It is difficult to define the concept of trust and quantify it because trust has both subjective and objective characteristics at the same time. A well-reported issue with reputation management system in business-to-consumer (BtoC) e-commerce is the “all good reputation” problem. In order to deal with the confusion, a new computational model of reputation is proposed in this paper. The ratings of each customer are set as basic trust score events. In addition, the time series of massive ratings are aggregated to formulate the sellers’ local temporal trust scores by Beta distribution. A logical model of trust and reputation is established based on the analysis of the dynamical relationship between trust and reputation. As for single goods with repeat transactions, an iterative mathematical model of trust and reputation is established with a closed-loop feedback mechanism. Numerical experiments on repeated transactions recorded over a period of 24 months are performed. The experimental results show that the proposed method plays guiding roles for both theoretical research into trust and reputation and the practical design of reputation systems in BtoC e-commerce.

Histomorphometric Evaluation of Bioceramic Molecular Impregnated and Dual Acid-Etched Implant Surfaces in the Human Posterior Maxilla

Background: Physical and bioceramic incorporation surface treatments at the nanometer scale showed higher means of bone-to-implant contact (BIC) and torque values compared with surface topography at the micrometer scale; however, the literature concerning the effect of nanometer scale parameters is sparse. Purpose: The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of two different implant surfaces on the percentage bone-to-implant contact (BIC%) and bone osteocyte density in the human posterior maxilla after 2 months of unloaded healing. Materials and Methods: The implants utilized presented dual acid-etched (DAE) surface and a bioceramic molecular impregnated treatment (Ossean(R), Intra-Lock International, Boca Raton, FL, USA) serving as control and test, respectively. Ten subjects (59 1 9 years of age) received two implants (one of each surface) during conventional implant surgery in the posterior maxilla. After the non-loaded period of 2 months, the implants and the surrounding tissue were removed by means of a trephine and were non-decalcified processed for ground sectioning and analysis of BIC%, bone density in threaded area (BA%), and osteocyte index (Oi). Results: Two DAE implants were found to be clinically unstable at time of retrieval. Histometric evaluation showed significantly higher BIC% and Oi for the test compared to the control surface (p < .05), and that BA% was not significantly different between groups. Wilcoxon matched pairs test was used to compare the differences of histomorphometric variables between implant surfaces. The significance test was conducted at a 5% level of significance. Conclusion: The histological data suggest that the bioceramic molecular impregnated surface-treated implants positively modulated bone healing at early implantation times compared to the DAE surface.

In vitro and clinical evaluation of specific dentifrices for complete denture hygiene

To study the physical properties of two experimental dentifrices for complete denture hygiene, their effect on denture biofilm removal and antimicrobial properties by means of a clinical trial. The experimental dentifrices comprised two compositions. One was based on the addition of 1% chloramine T (D1) and the other on the presence of 0.01% fluorosurfactant (D2). Measurements of density, pH, consistency, rheological features and abrasiveness were conducted. Sixty complete denture wearers were randomly assigned to three groups and were instructed to brush their dentures with a specific toothbrush: (1) Water (control); (2) D1; or (3) D2. Each method was used for 21 days. Denture biofilm was disclosed by a 1% neutral red solution and quantified by means of digital photos taken from the internal surface. Microbiological assessment was conducted to quantify Candida sp. and mutans streptococci. Data were evaluated by one-way anova and Tukey HSD, or Kruskal-Wallis (alpha = 0.05). Both dentifrices decreased biofilm coverage when compared with the control group. D1 was the most efficacious treatment to reduce mutans streptococci, whereas D2 showed an intermediate outcome (anova, p < 0.040). No treatment influenced Candida albicans or non-albicans species (Kruskal-Wallis, p = 0.163 and 0.746, respectively). It can be concluded that brushing complete dentures with the experimental dentifrices tested could be effective for the removal of denture biofilm.

Evaluation of phenolic compounds in mate (Ilex paraguariensis) processed by gamma radiation

The radiation food processing has been demonstrating great effectiveness in the attack of pathogenic agents, while little compromising nutritional value and sensorial properties of foods. The mate (Ilex paraguariensis), widely consumed product in South America, generally in the form of infusions with hot or cold water, calls of chimarrao or terere, it is cited in literature as one of the best sources phenolic compounds. The antioxidants action of these constituent has been related to the protection of the organism against the free radicals, generated in alive, currently responsible for the sprouting of some degenerative illness as cancer, arteriosclerosis, rheumatic arthritis and cardiovascular clutters among others. The objective of that work was to evaluate the action of the processing for gamma radiation in phenolic compounds of terere beverage in the doses of 0, 3, 5, 7 and 10 kGy. The observed results do not demonstrate significant alterations in phenolic compounds of terere beverage processed by gamma radiation. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical and sensory properties of regular and reduced-fat pound cakes with added amaranth flour

The sum of wheat flour and corn starch was replaced by 10, 20, or 30% whole amaranth flour in both conventional (C) and reduced fat (RF) pound cakes. and the effects on physical and sensory properties of the cakes were investigated. RF presented 33% fat reduction. The increasing amaranth levels darkened crust and crumb of cakes, which decreased color acceptability. Fresh amaranth-containing cakes had similar texture characteristics to (he controls, evaluated both instrumentally and sensorially. Sensory evaluation revealed that replacement by 30% amaranth flour decreased C cakes overall acceptability scores, clue to its lower specific volume and darker color. Amaranth flour levels had no significant effect on overall acceptability of RF cakes. Hence, the sum of wheat flour and corn starch could be successfully replaced by up to 20% amaranth flour in C and up to 30% in RF pound cakes without negatively affecting sensory quality in fresh cakes. Moisture losses for all the cakes were similar, approximate to 1% per day during storage. After six days of storage, both C and RF amaranth-containing cakes had higher hardness and chewiness values than control cakes. Further experiments involving sensory evaluation during storage are necessary to determine the exact limit of amaranth flour replacement.