Effects of natural mortality on the yield per recruit models

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 22 de Janeiro de 2016, Universidade dos Açores.

The epidemiologic paradox of low birth weight in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the low birth weight (LBW) paradox exists in Brazil. METHODS: LBW and cesarean section rates between 1995 and 2007 were estimated based on data from SINASC (Brazilian Live Births Database). Infant mortality rates (IMRs) were obtained using an indirect method that correct for underreporting. Schooling information was obtained from census data. Trends in LBW rate were assessed using joinpoint regression models. The correlations between LBW rate and other indicators were graphically assessed by lowess regression and tested using Spearman's rank correlation. RESULTS: In Brazil, LBW rate trends were non-linear and non-significant: the rate dropped from 7.9% in 1995 to 7.7% in 2000, then increased to 8.2% in 2003 and remained nearly steady thereafter at 8.2% in 2007. However, trends varied among Brazilian regions: there were significant increases in the North from 1999 to 2003 (2.7% per year), and in the South (1.0% per year) and Central-West regions (0.6% per year) from 1995 to 2007. For the entire period studied, higher LBW and lower IMRs were seen in more developed compared to less developed regions. In Brazilian States, in 2005, the higher the IMR rate, the lower the LBW rate (p=0.009); the lower the low schooling rate, the lower the LBW rate (p=0.007); the higher the number of neonatal intensive care beds per 1,000 live births, the higher the LBW rate (p=0.036). CONCLUSIONS: The low birth weight paradox was seen in Brazil. LBW rate is increasing in some Brazilian regions. Regional differences in LBW rate seem to be more associated to availability of perinatal care services than underlying social conditions.

Cause-specific mortality and income inequality in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To analyze cause-specific mortality rates according to the relative income hypothesis. METHODS: All 96 administrative areas of the city of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, were divided into two groups based on the Gini coefficient of income inequality: high (>0.25) and low (<0.25). The propensity score matching method was applied to control for confounders associated with socioeconomic differences among areas. RESULTS: The difference between high and low income inequality areas was statistically significant for homicide (8.57 per 10,000; 95%CI: 2.60;14.53); ischemic heart disease (5.47 per 10,000 [95%CI 0.76;10.17]); HIV/AIDS (3.58 per 10,000 [95%CI 0.58;6.57]); and respiratory diseases (3.56 per 10,000 [95%CI 0.18;6.94]). The ten most common causes of death accounted for 72.30% of the mortality difference. Infant mortality also had significantly higher age-adjusted rates in high inequality areas (2.80 per 10,000 [95%CI 0.86;4.74]), as well as among males (27.37 per 10,000 [95%CI 6.19;48.55]) and females (15.07 per 10,000 [95%CI 3.65;26.48]). CONCLUSIONS: The study results support the relative income hypothesis. After propensity score matching cause-specific mortality rates was higher in more unequal areas. Studies on income inequality in smaller areas should take proper accounting of heterogeneity of social and demographic characteristics.

Gender and racial inequalities in trends of oral cancer mortality in Sao Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE:To analyse recent trends in oral cancer mortality, focusing specifically on differences concerning gender and race.METHODS:Official information on deaths and population in the city of Sao Paulo, 2003 to 2009, were used to estimate mortality rates from oral cancer (C00 to C10, International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision), adjusted for age and stratified by gender (females and males) and race (blacks and whites). The Prais-Winsten auto-regression procedure was used to analyse the time series.RESULTS:During the study period, 8,505 individuals living in the city of Sao Paulo died of oral cancer. Rates increased for females (rate of yearly increase = 4.4%, 95%CI 1.4;7.5), and levelled off for men, which represents an inversion of previous trends among genders in the city. Increases were identified for blacks, with a high rate of yearly increase of 9.1% (95%CI 5.5;12.9), and levelled off for whites. Oral cancer mortality in blacks almost doubled during the study period, and surpassed mortality in whites for almost all categories.CONCLUSIONS:Mortality presented a higher increase among women than in men, and it doubled among backs. The surveillance of trends of oral cancer mortality across gender and racial groups may contribute to implementing socially appropriate health policies, which concurrently reduce the burden of disease and the attenuation of unfair, avoidable and unnecessary inequalities in health.

Mortalidade perinatal no município de Salvador, Bahia: evolução de 2000 a 2009

OBJETIVO Analisar a evolução da mortalidade perinatal quanto à dimensão do problema e sua extensão. MÉTODOS Estudo descritivo de tendência temporal com 10.994 óbitos perinatais, de mães residentes em Salvador, BA, com idade gestacional ≥ 22 semanas, idade do recém-nascido até seis dias e 500 g ou mais de peso ao nascer, registrados de 2000 a 2009. Utilizaram-se dados do Sistema de Informações de Nascidos Vivos e do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade do sitio eletrônico do Datasus/Ministério da Saúde. Calcularam-se taxas de mortalidade perinatal e fetal/1.000 nascimentos e neonatal precoce/1.000 nascidos vivos. Aplicaram-se: teste Qui-quadrado de Pearson para diferenças em proporções, teste de sequências ( runs ), cálculo de médias móveis e coeficiente de determinação linear (R 2 ) para análise de tendência. Utilizou-se a classificação de Wigglesworth para causas de morte. RESULTADOS A taxa de mortalidade perinatal mostrou tendência decrescente, sendo reduzida em 42,0% no período (de 33,1 (2000) para 19,2 (2009)), com maior contribuição da taxa neonatal precoce (-56,3%). A mortalidade fetal representou grande proporção (61,9%) da taxa de mortalidade perinatal em 2009. A classificação dos óbitos apontou como causas mais frequentes de óbito perinatal: asfixia intraparto (8,8/1.000), imaturidade (7,1/1.000) e malformações congênitas (1,3/1.000). CONCLUSÕES Mesmo em declínio, a taxa de mortalidade perinatal continua elevada e o predomínio recente da mortalidade fetal indica mudança no perfil de causas e impacto nas ações de prevenção. A consulta pré-natal de qualidade com controle de riscos e melhoria da assistência ao parto pode reduzir a ocorrência de causas evitáveis.

Cumulative mortality of Aedes aegypti larvae treated with compounds

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the larvicidal activity of Azadirachta indica, Melaleuca alternifolia, carapa guianensis essential oils and fermented extract of Carica papaya against Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) (Diptera: Culicidae). METHODS The larvicide test was performed in triplicate with 300 larvae for each experimental group using the third larval stage, which were exposed for 24h. The groups were: positive control with industrial larvicide (BTI) in concentrations of 0.37 ppm (PC1) and 0.06 ppm (PC2); treated with compounds of essential oils and fermented extract, 50.0% concentration (G1); treated with compounds of essential oils and fermented extract, 25.0% concentration (G2); treated with compounds of essential oils and fermented extract, 12.5% concentration (G3); and negative control group using water (NC1) and using dimethyl (NC2). The larvae were monitored every 60 min using direct visualization. RESULTS No mortality occurred in experimental groups NC1 and NC2 in the 24h exposure period, whereas there was 100% mortality in the PC1 and PC2 groups compared to NC1 and NC2. Mortality rates of 65.0%, 50.0% and 78.0% were observed in the groups G1, G2 and G3 respectively, compared with NC1 and NC2. CONCLUSIONS The association between three essential oils from Azadirachta indica, Melaleuca alternifolia, Carapa guianensis and fermented extract of Carica papaya was efficient at all concentrations. Therefore, it can be used in Aedes aegypti Liverpool third larvae stage control programs.

Disparities in cervical and breast cancer mortality in Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze cervical and breast cancer mortality in Brazil according to socioeconomic and welfare indicators. METHODS Data on breast and cervical cancer mortality covering a 30-year period (1980-2010) were analyzed. The data were obtained from the National Mortality Database, population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics database, and socioeconomic and welfare information from the Institute of Applied Economic Research. Moving averages were calculated, disaggregated by capital city and municipality. The annual percent change in mortality rates was estimated by segmented linear regression using the joinpoint method. Pearson’s correlation coefficients were conducted between average mortality rate at the end of the three-year period and selected indicators in the state capital and each Brazilian state. RESULTS There was a decline in cervical cancer mortality rates throughout the period studied, except in municipalities outside of the capitals in the North and Northeast. There was a decrease in breast cancer mortality in the capitals from the end of the 1990s onwards. Favorable socioeconomic indicators were inversely correlated with cervical cancer mortality. A strong direct correlation was found with favorable indicators and an inverse correlation with fertility rate and breast cancer mortality in inner cities. CONCLUSIONS There is an ongoing dynamic process of increased risk of cervical and breast cancer and attenuation of mortality because of increased, albeit unequal, access to and provision of screening, diagnosis and treatment. 

Isolated and synergistic effects of PM10 and average temperature on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality

OBJECTIVE To analyze the effect of air pollution and temperature on mortality due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. METHODS We evaluated the isolated and synergistic effects of temperature and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 10 µm (PM10) on the mortality of individuals > 40 years old due to cardiovascular disease and that of individuals > 60 years old due to respiratory diseases in Sao Paulo, SP, Southeastern Brazil, between 1998 and 2008. Three methodologies were used to evaluate the isolated association: time-series analysis using Poisson regression model, bidirectional case-crossover analysis matched by period, and case-crossover analysis matched by the confounding factor, i.e., average temperature or pollutant concentration. The graphical representation of the response surface, generated by the interaction term between these factors added to the Poisson regression model, was interpreted to evaluate the synergistic effect of the risk factors. RESULTS No differences were observed between the results of the case-crossover and time-series analyses. The percentage change in the relative risk of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality was 0.85% (0.45;1.25) and 1.60% (0.74;2.46), respectively, due to an increase of 10 μg/m3 in the PM10 concentration. The pattern of correlation of the temperature with cardiovascular mortality was U-shaped and that with respiratory mortality was J-shaped, indicating an increased relative risk at high temperatures. The values for the interaction term indicated a higher relative risk for cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities at low temperatures and high temperatures, respectively, when the pollution levels reached approximately 60 μg/m3. CONCLUSIONS The positive association standardized in the Poisson regression model for pollutant concentration is not confounded by temperature, and the effect of temperature is not confounded by the pollutant levels in the time-series analysis. The simultaneous exposure to different levels of environmental factors can create synergistic effects that are as disturbing as those caused by extreme concentrations.

Inequalities in health: living conditions and infant mortality in Northeastern Brazil

OBJECTIVE To analyze the variation of infant mortality as per condition of life in the urban setting.METHODS Ecological study performed with data regarding registered deaths of children under the age of one who resided in Aracaju, SE, Northeastern Brazil, from 2001 to 2010. Infant mortality inequalities were assessed based on the spatial distribution of the Living Conditions Index for each neighborhood, classified into four strata. The average mortality rates of 2001-2005 and 2006-2010 were compared using the Student’s t-test.RESULTS Average infant mortality rates decreased from 25.3 during 2001-2005 to 17.7 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2006-2010. Despite the decrease in the rates in all the strata during that decade, inequality of infant mortality risks increased in neighborhoods with worse living conditions compared with that in areas with better living conditions.CONCLUSIONS Infant mortality rates in Aracaju showed a decline, but with important differences among neighborhoods. The assessment based on a living condition perspective can explain the differences in the risks of infant mortality rates in urban areas, highlighting health inequalities in infant mortality as a multidimensional issue.

Past and present: conditions of life during childhood and mortality of older adults

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To analyze whether socioeconomic and health conditions during childhood are associated with mortality during old age. METHODS: Data were extracted from the SABE Study (Saúde, Bem-estar e Envelhecimento – Health, Welfare and Aging), which were performed in 2000 and 2006. The sample consisted of 2004 (1,355 living and 649 dead) older adults. The statistical analysis was performed based on Poisson regression models, taking into account the time variation of risk observed. Older adults’ demographic characteristics and life conditions were evaluated, as were the socioeconomic and lifestyle conditions they acquired during their adult life. RESULTS: Only the area of residence during childhood (rural or urban) remained as a factor associated with mortality at advanced ages. However, this association lost significance when the variables acquired during adulthood were added to the model. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the information regarding the conditions during childhood being limited and perhaps not accurately measure the socioeconomic status and health in the first years of life, the findings of this study suggest that improving the environmental conditions of children and creating opportunities during early adulthood may contribute to greater survival rates for those of more advanced years.

Infecção perinatal pelo citomegalovírus em hospital público de São Paulo: estudo prospectivo

Com o objetivo de se avaliar a magnitude da infecção perinatal pelo citomegalovírus em hospital público do município de São Paulo, os autores acompanharam prospectivamente 98 recém-nascidos até o quarto mês de vida. Amostras de urina foram coletadas ao nascimento e posteriormente a cada mês, para inoculação em tubos contendo fibroblastos humanos. Amostras de sangue foram coletadas ao nascimento, no segundo e quarto mês de vida para pesquisa de anticorpos IgM específicos para o CMV, pelo método de imunofluorescência indireta. Dos 37 recém-nascidos que foram acompanhados até o quarto mês de vida, 9 se infectaram neste período, com diagnóstico feito pelo isolamento do CMV. O risco de aquisição da infecção pelo citomegalovírus no período perinatal estimado pela tábua de sobrevivência foi de 30,9%. A pesquisa de anticorpos IgM por imunofluorescência indireta só permitiu tal diagnóstico em 2 casos (8,1%). A diferença observada entre os dois métodos foi estatisticamente significante (p = 0,015). O estudo da prevalência de anticorpos IgG pelo ensaio imunoenzimático nas mães das crianças mostrou taxas de 92,7%. Não se isolou CMV nas amostras de leite materno, coletadas mensalmente até o terceiro mês de lactação. O acompanhamento clínico evidenciou que as crianças infectadas apresentaram-se de forma assintomática e com desenvolvimento neurop-sicomotor normal até o quarto mês.

Congenital cytomegalovirus infection in a neonatal intensive care unit in Brazil evaluated by PCR and association with perinatal aspects

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is the most common congenital infection, affecting 0.4% to 2.3% newborns. Most of them are asymptomatic at birth, but later 10% develop handicaps, mainly neurological disturbances. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of CMV shed in urine of newborns from a neonatal intensive care unit using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and correlate positive cases to some perinatal aspects. Urine samples obtained at first week of life were processed according to a PCR protocol. Perinatal data were collected retrospectively from medical records. Twenty of the 292 cases (6.8%) were CMV-DNA positive. There was no statistical difference between newborns with and without CMV congenital infection concerning birth weight (p=0.11), gestational age (p=0.11), Apgar scores in the first and fifth minutes of life (p=0.99 and 0.16), mother's age (p=0.67) and gestational history. Moreover, CMV congenital infection was neither related to gender (p=0.55) nor to low weight (<2,500g) at birth (p=0.13). This high prevalence of CMV congenital infection (6.8%) could be due to the high sensitivity of PCR technique, the low socioeconomic level of studied population or the severe clinical status of these newborns.

Predictive factors of mortality in burn patients

Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

A Mortalidade Perinatal na Maternidade Dr. Alfredo da Costa em 1999

Os autores avaliam a mortalidade perinatal no ano de 1999, na Maternidade Dr. Alfredo da Costa, utilizando a metodologia proposta por Wigglesworth. Procuram identificar os factores com ela associados no sentido de reduzir as causas evitáveis.

Risk factors for and mortality of extended-spectrum-β-lactamase-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae and Escherichia coli nosocomial bloodstream infections

A case-control study, involving patients with positive blood cultures for Klebsiella pneumoniae (KP) or Escherichia coli (EC) EC and controls with positive blood cultures for non-ESBL-KP or EC, was performed to assess risk factors for extended-spectrum-β-lactamase (ESBL) production from nosocomial bloodstream infections (BSIs). Mortality among patients with BSIs was also assessed. The study included 145 patients (81, 59.5% with K. pneumoniae and 64, 44.1% with E. coli BSI); 51 (35.2%) isolates were ESBL producers and 94 (64.8%) nonproducers. Forty-five (55.6%) K. pneumoniae isolates were ESBL producers, while only six (9.4%) E. coli isolates produced the enzyme. Multivariate analysis showed that recent exposure to piperacillin-tazobactam (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 6.2; 95%CI 1.1-34.7) was a risk factor for ESBL BSI. K. pneumoniae was significantly more likely to be an ESBL-producing isolate than E. coli (aOR 6.7; 95%CI 2.3-20.2). No cephalosporin class was independently associated with ESBLs BSI; however, in a secondary model considering all oxymino-cephalosporins as a single variable, a significant association was demonstrated (aOR 3.7; 95%CI 1.3-10.8). Overall 60-day mortality was significantly higher among ESBL-producing organisms. The finding that piperacillin-tazobactam use is a risk factor for ESBL-production in KP or EC BSIs requires attention, since this drug can be recommended to limit the use of third-generation cephalosporins.