Tests on price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets

We tested the price linkage, the law of one price (LOP) condition, and the causality of the price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets with consideration of structural breaks in the price series. The LOP condition did not hold for both the gold and silver markets when structural breaks were not considered but it sustained in some periods when it was tested for the break periods. We found from the causality test that the price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets were led by the U.S. market.

License scheme : an optimal waste management policy under asymmetric information

A system requiring a waste management license from an enforcement agency has been introduced in many countries. A license system is usually coupled with fines, a manifest, and a disposal tax. However, these policy devices have not been integrated into an optimal policy. In this paper we derive an optimal waste management policy by using those policy devices. Waste management policies are met with three difficult problems: asymmetric information, the heterogeneity of waste management firms, and non-compliance by waste management firms and waste disposers. The optimal policy in this paper overcomes all three problems.

Making optimal and justifiable asset maintenance decisions

Maintenance decisions for large-scale asset systems are often beyond an asset manager's capacity to handle. The presence of a number of possibly conflicting decision criteria, the large number of possible maintenance policies, and the reality of budget constraints often produce complex problems, where the underlying trade-offs are not apparent to the asset manager. This paper presents the decision support tool "JOB" (Justification and Optimisation of Budgets), which has been designed to help asset managers of large systems assess, select, interpret and optimise the effects of their maintenance policies in the presence of limited budgets. This decision support capability is realized through an efficient, scalable backtracking- based algorithm for the optimisation of maintenance policies, while enabling the user to view a number of solutions near this optimum and explore tradeoffs with other decision criteria. To assist the asset manager in selecting between various policies, JOB also provides the capability of Multiple Criteria Decision Making. In this paper, the JOB tool is presented and its applicability for the maintenance of a complex power plant system.

Buckling tests of fire exposed cold-formed steel columns

Cold-formed steel sections are commonly used in low-rise commercial and residential buildings. During fire events, cold-formed steel structural elements in these buildings will be exposed to elevated temperatures. Hence after such events there is a need to evaluate the residual strength of these structural elements. However, only limited information is available in relation to the residual strength of fire exposed cold-formed steel sections. This means conservative decisions are often made in relation to fire exposed building structures. This research is aimed at investigating the buckling capacities of fire exposed cold-formed lipped channel steel sections. A series of compression tests of fire exposed, short lipped channel columns made of varying steel grades and thicknesses was undertaken in this research. Test columns were first exposed to different elevated temperatures up to 800 oC. They were then allowed to cool down at ambient temperatures before they were tested to failure. Similarly tensile coupon tests were also undertaken after being exposed to various elevated temperatures, from which the residual mechanical properties (yield stress and Young’s modulus) of the steels used in this study were derived. Using these mechanical properties, the residual compression capacities of tested short columns were predicted using the currently used design rules in AS/NZS 4600 and AISI cold-formed steel standards. This comparison showed that ambient temperature design rules for compression members can be used to predict the residual compression capacities of fire exposed short or laterally restrained cold-formed steel columns provided the maximum temperature experienced by the columns can be estimated after a fire event. Such residual capacity assessments will allow structural and fire engineers to make an accurate prediction of the safety of fire exposed buildings. This paper presents the details of this experimental study and the results.

A frontier functions approach to optimal scales of sustainable production

This paper translates the concepts of sustainable production to three dimensions of economic, environmental and ecological sustainability to analyze optimal production scales by solving optimizing problems. Economic optimization seeks input-output combinations to maximize profits. Environmental optimization searches for input-output combinations that minimize the polluting effects of materials balance on the surrounding environment. Ecological optimization looks for input-output combinations that minimize the cumulative destruction of the entire ecosystem. Using an aggregate space, the framework illustrates that these optimal scales are often not identical because markets fail to account for all negative externalities. Profit-maximizing firms normally operate at the scales which are larger than optimal scales from the viewpoints of environmental and ecological sustainability; hence policy interventions are favoured. The framework offers a useful tool for efficiency studies and policy implication analysis. The paper provides an empirical investigation using a data set of rice farms in South Korea.

Optimal HMM processing of differentially phase modulated communication systems

This paper investigates demodulation of differentially phase modulated signals DPMS using optimal HMM filters. The optimal HMM filter presented in the paper is computationally of order N3 per time instant, where N is the number of message symbols. Previously, optimal HMM filters have been of computational order N4 per time instant. Also, suboptimal HMM filters have be proposed of computation order N2 per time instant. The approach presented in this paper uses two coupled HMM filters and exploits knowledge of ...

Optimal HMM filtering and decision feedback equalisation for differential encoded transmission systems

In this paper conditional hidden Markov model (HMM) filters and conditional Kalman filters (KF) are coupled together to improve demodulation of differential encoded signals in noisy fading channels. We present an indicator matrix representation for differential encoded signals and the optimal HMM filter for demodulation. The filter requires O(N3) calculations per time iteration, where N is the number of message symbols. Decision feedback equalisation is investigated via coupling the optimal HMM filter for estimating the message, conditioned on estimates of the channel parameters, and a KF for estimating the channel states, conditioned on soft information message estimates. The particular differential encoding scheme examined in this paper is differential phase shift keying. However, the techniques developed can be extended to other forms of differential modulation. The channel model we use allows for multiplicative channel distortions and additive white Gaussian noise. Simulation studies are also presented.

Circulating antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich proteins 2 interfere with antigen detection by rapid diagnostic tests

Background Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for detection of Plasmodium falciparum infection that target P. falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 (PfHRP2), a protein that circulates in the blood of patients infected with this species of malaria, are widely used to guide case management. Understanding determinants of PfHRP2 availability in circulation is therefore essential to understanding the performance of PfHRP2-detecting RDTs. Methods The possibility that pre-formed host anti-PfHRP2 antibodies may block target antigen detection, thereby causing false negative test results was investigated in this study. Results Anti-PfHRP2 antibodies were detected in 19/75 (25%) of plasma samples collected from patients with acute malaria from Cambodia, Nigeria and the Philippines, as well as in 3/28 (10.7%) asymptomatic Solomon Islands residents. Pre-incubation of plasma samples from subjects with high-titre anti-PfHRP2 antibodies with soluble PfHRP2 blocked the detection of the target antigen on two of the three brands of RDTs tested, leading to false negative results. Pre-incubation of the plasma with intact parasitized erythrocytes resulted in a reduction of band intensity at the highest parasite density, and a reduction of lower detection threshold by ten-fold on all three brands of RDTs tested. Conclusions These observations indicate possible reduced sensitivity for diagnosis of P. falciparum malaria using PfHRP2-detecting RDTs among people with high levels of specific antibodies and low density infection, as well as possible interference with tests configured to detect soluble PfHRP2 in saliva or urine samples. Further investigations are required to assess the impact of pre-formed anti-PfHRP2 antibodies on RDT performance in different transmission settings.

Development of a new index of balance in adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities

Purposes: The first objective was to propose a new model representing the balance level of adults with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) using Principal Components Analysis (PCA); and the second objective was to use the results from the PCA recorded by regression method to construct and validate summative scales of the standardized values of the index, which may be useful to facilitate a balance assessment in adults with IDD. Methods: A total of 801 individuals with IDD (509 males) mean 33.1±8.5 years old, were recruited from Special Olympic Games in Spain 2009 to 2012. The participants performed the following tests: the timed-stand test, the single leg stance test with open and closed eyes, the Functional Reach Test, the Expanded Timed-Get-up-and-Go Test. Data was analyzed using principal components analysis (PCA) with Oblimin rotation and Kaiser normalization. We examined the construct validity of our proposed two-factor model underlying balance for adults with IDD. The scores from PCA were recorded by regression method and were standardized. Results: The Component Plot and Rotated Space indicated that a two-factor solution (Dynamic and Static Balance components) was optimal. The PCA with direct Oblimin rotation revealed a satisfactory percentage of total variance explained by the two factors: 51.6 and 21.4%, respectively. The median score standardized for component dynamic and static of the balance index for adults with IDD is shown how references values. Conclusions: Our study may lead to improvements in the understanding and assessment of balance in adults with IDD. First, it confirms that a two-factor model may underlie the balance construct, and second, it provides an index that may be useful for identifying the balance level for adults with IDD.

Optimal allocation of conservation effort among subpopulations of a threatened species: How important is patch quality?

Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.