A new class of high strength high temperature Cobalt based gamma-gamma ` Co-Mo-Al alloys stabilized with Ta addition

The present paper reports a new class of Co based superalloys that has gamma-gamma' microstructure and exhibits much lower density compared to other commercially available Co superalloys including Co-Al-W based alloys. The basic composition is Co-10Al-5Mo (at%) with addition of 2 at% Ta for stabilization of gamma' phase. The gamma-gamma' microstructure evolves through solutionising and aging treatment. Using first principles calculations, we observe that Ta plays a crucial role in stabilizing gamma' phase. By addition of Ta in the basic stoichiometric composition Co-3(Al, Mo), the enthalpy of formation (Delta H-f) of L1(2) structure (gamma' phase) becomes more negative in comparison to DO19 structure. The All of the L12 structure becomes further more negative by the occupancy of Ni and Ti atoms in the lattice suggesting an increase in the stability of the gamma' precipitates. Among large number of alloys studied experimentally, the paper presents results of detailed investigations on Co-10Al-5Mo-2Ta, Co-30Ni-10Al-5Mo-2Ta and Co-30Ni-10Al-5Mo-2Ta-2Ti. To evaluate the role alloying elements, atom probe tomography investigations were carried out to obtain partition coefficients for the constituent elements. The results show strong partitioning of Ni, Al, Ta and Ti in ordered gamma' precipitates. 2015 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electronic Structure Evolution across the Peierls Metal-Insulator Transition in a Correlated Ferromagnet

Transition metal compounds often undergo spin-charge-orbital ordering due to strong electron-electron correlations. In contrast, low-dimensional materials can exhibit a Peierls transition arising from low-energy electron-phonon-coupling-induced structural instabilities. We study the electronic structure of the tunnel framework compound K2Cr8O16, which exhibits a temperature-dependent (T-dependent) paramagnetic-to-ferromagnetic- metal transition at T-C = 180 K and transforms into a ferromagnetic insulator below T-MI = 95 K. We observe clear T-dependent dynamic valence (charge) fluctuations from above T-C to T-MI, which effectively get pinned to an average nominal valence of Cr+3.75 (Cr4+:Cr3+ states in a 3:1 ratio) in the ferromagnetic-insulating phase. High-resolution laser photoemission shows a T-dependent BCS-type energy gap, with 2G(0) similar to 3.5(k(B)T(MI)) similar to 35 meV. First-principles band-structure calculations, using the experimentally estimated on-site Coulomb energy of U similar to 4 eV, establish the necessity of strong correlations and finite structural distortions for driving the metal-insulator transition. In spite of the strong correlations, the nonintegral occupancy (2.25 d-electrons/Cr) and the half-metallic ferromagnetism in the t(2g) up-spin band favor a low-energy Peierls metal-insulator transition.

The X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and high-temperature structural studies of Zn1-xNixO/NiO two-phase composites

Detailed investigation of the chemical states and local atomic environment of Ni and Zn in the two-phase composites of Zn1-xNixO/NiO was reported. The X-ray photoelectron spectra of both Ni-2p and Zn-2p revealed the existence of a doublet with spin-orbit splitting approximate to 17.9 and 23.2eV, respectively confirming the divalent oxidation state of both Ni and Zn. However, the samples fabricated under oxygen-rich conditions exhibit significant difference in the binding energy approximate to 18.75eV between the 2p3/2 and 2p1/2 states of Ni. The shift in the satellite peaks of Ni-2p with increasing the Ni composition x within the Zn1-xNixO/NiO matrix signifies the attenuation of nonlocal screening because of reduced site occupancy of two adjacent Zn ions. The temperature dependence of X-ray diffraction analysis reveals a large distortion in the axial-rhombohedral angle for oxygen-rich NiO. Conversely, no significant distortion was noticed in the NiO system present as a secondary phase within Zn1-xNixO. Nevertheless, the unit-cell volume of both wurtzite h.c.p. Zn1-xNixO and f.c.c. NiO exhibits an anomalous behavior between 150 and 300 degrees C. The origin of such unusual change in the unit-cell volume was discussed in terms of oxygen stoichiometry.

Effect of Sm3+-Gd3+ on structural, electrical and magnetic properties of Mn-Zn ferrites synthesized via combustion route

Nanocrystalline Mn0.4Zn0.6SmxGdyFe2-(x+y)O4 (x = y = 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.04 and 0.05) were synthesized by combustion route. The detailed structural studies were carried out through X-ray diffractometer (XRD), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The results confirms the formation of mixed spine phase with cubic structure due to the distortion created with co-dopants substitution at Fe site in Mn-Zn ferrite lattice. Further, the crystallite size increases with an increase of Sm3+-Gd3+ ions concentration while lattice parameter and lattice strain decreases. Furthermore, the effect of Sm-Gd co-doping in Mn-Zn ferrite on the room temperature electrical (dielectric studies) studies were carried out in the wide frequency range 1 GHz-5 GHz. The magnetic studies were carried out using vibrating sample magnetometer (VSM) under applied magnetic field of 1.5T and also room temperature electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectra's were recorded. From the results of dielectric studies, it shows that the real and imaginary part of permittivities are increasing with variation of Gd3+ and Sm3+ concentration. The magnetic studies reveal the decrease of remnant, saturation magnetization and coercivity with increasing of Sm3+-Gd3+ ion concentration. The g-value, peak-to-peak line width and spin concentration evaluated from EPR spectra correlated with cations occupancy. The electromagnetic properties clearly indicate that these materials are the good candidates which are useful at L and C band frequency. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Error exponent analysis of energy-based Bayesian decentralized spectrum sensing under fading

This paper considers decentralized spectrum sensing, i.e., detection of occupancy of the primary users' spectrum by a set of Cognitive Radio (CR) nodes, under a Bayesian set-up. The nodes use energy detection to make their individual decisions, which are combined at a Fusion Center (FC) using the K-out-of-N fusion rule. The channel from the primary transmitter to the CR nodes is assumed to undergo fading, while that from the nodes to the FC is assumed to be error-free. In this scenario, a novel concept termed as the Error Exponent with a Confidence Level (EECL) is introduced to evaluate and compare the performance of different detection schemes. Expressions for the EECL under general fading conditions are derived. As a special case, it is shown that the conventional error exponent both at individual sensors, and at the FC is zero. Further, closed-form lower bounds on the EECL are derived under Rayleigh fading and lognormal shadowing. As an example application, it answers the question of whether to use pilot-signal based narrowband sensing, where the signal undergoes Rayleigh fading, or to sense over the entire bandwidth of a wideband signal, where the signal undergoes lognormal shadowing. Theoretical results are validated using Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Autoregulation of topoisomerase I expression by supercoiling sensitive transcription

The opposing catalytic activities of topoisomerase I (TopoI/relaxase) and DNA gyrase (supercoiling enzyme) ensure homeostatic maintenance of bacterial chromosome supercoiling. Earlier studies in Es-cherichia coli suggested that the alteration in DNA supercoiling affects the DNA gyrase and TopoI expression. Although, the role of DNA elements around the promoters were proposed in regulation of gyrase, the molecular mechanism of supercoiling mediated control of TopoI expression is not yet understood. Here, we describe the regulation of TopoI expression from Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Mycobac-terium smegmatis by a mechanism termed Supercoiling Sensitive Transcription (SST). In both the organisms, topoI promoter(s) exhibited reduced activity in response to chromosome relaxation suggesting that SST is intrinsic to topoI promoter(s). We elucidate the role of promoter architecture and high transcriptional activity of upstream genes in topoI regulation. Analysis of the promoter(s) revealed the presence of suboptimal spacing between the -35 and -10 elements, rendering them supercoiling sensitive. Accordingly, upon chromosome relaxation, RNA polymerase occupancy was decreased on the topoI promoter region implicating the role of DNA topology in SST of topoI. We propose that negative supercoiling induced DNA twisting/writhing align the -35 and -10 elements to facilitate the optimal transcription of topoI.

A review of travel time estimation and forecasting for advanced traveler information systems

Providing on line travel time information to commuters has become an important issue for Advanced Traveler Information Systems and Route Guidance Systems in the past years, due to the increasing traffic volume and congestion in the road networks. Travel time is one of the most useful traffic variables because it is more intuitive than other traffic variables such as flow, occupancy or density, and is useful for travelers in decision making. The aim of this paper is to present a global view of the literature on the modeling of travel time, introducing crucial concepts and giving a thorough classification of the existing tech- niques. Most of the attention will focus on travel time estimation and travel time prediction, which are generally not presented together. The main goals of these models, the study areas and methodologies used to carry out these tasks will be further explored and categorized.

Functional genomic studies of the structure and regulation of eukaryotic transcriptomes

The main focus of this thesis is the use of high-throughput sequencing technologies in functional genomics (in particular in the form of ChIP-seq, chromatin immunoprecipitation coupled with sequencing, and RNA-seq) and the study of the structure and regulation of transcriptomes. Some parts of it are of a more methodological nature while others describe the application of these functional genomic tools to address various biological problems. A significant part of the research presented here was conducted as part of the ENCODE (ENCyclopedia Of DNA Elements) Project.

The first part of the thesis focuses on the structure and diversity of the human transcriptome. Chapter 1 contains an analysis of the diversity of the human polyadenylated transcriptome based on RNA-seq data generated for the ENCODE Project. Chapter 2 presents a simulation-based examination of the performance of some of the most popular computational tools used to assemble and quantify transcriptomes. Chapter 3 includes a study of variation in gene expression, alternative splicing and allelic expression bias on the single-cell level and on a genome-wide scale in human lymphoblastoid cells; it also brings forward a number of critical to the practice of single-cell RNA-seq measurements methodological considerations.

The second part presents several studies applying functional genomic tools to the study of the regulatory biology of organellar genomes, primarily in mammals but also in plants. Chapter 5 contains an analysis of the occupancy of the human mitochondrial genome by TFAM, an important structural and regulatory protein in mitochondria, using ChIP-seq. In Chapter 6, the mitochondrial DNA occupancy of the TFB2M transcriptional regulator, the MTERF termination factor, and the mitochondrial RNA and DNA polymerases is characterized. Chapter 7 consists of an investigation into the curious phenomenon of the physical association of nuclear transcription factors with mitochondrial DNA, based on the diverse collections of transcription factor ChIP-seq datasets generated by the ENCODE, mouseENCODE and modENCODE consortia. In Chapter 8 this line of research is further extended to existing publicly available ChIP-seq datasets in plants and their mitochondrial and plastid genomes.

The third part is dedicated to the analytical and experimental practice of ChIP-seq. As part of the ENCODE Project, a set of metrics for assessing the quality of ChIP-seq experiments was developed, and the results of this activity are presented in Chapter 9. These metrics were later used to carry out a global analysis of ChIP-seq quality in the published literature (Chapter 10). In Chapter 11, the development and initial application of an automated robotic ChIP-seq (in which these metrics also played a major role) is presented.

The fourth part presents the results of some additional projects the author has been involved in, including the study of the role of the Piwi protein in the transcriptional regulation of transposon expression in Drosophila (Chapter 12), and the use of single-cell RNA-seq to characterize the heterogeneity of gene expression during cellular reprogramming (Chapter 13).

The last part of the thesis provides a review of the results of the ENCODE Project and the interpretation of the complexity of the biochemical activity exhibited by mammalian genomes that they have revealed (Chapters 15 and 16), an overview of the expected in the near future technical developments and their impact on the field of functional genomics (Chapter 14), and a discussion of some so far insufficiently explored research areas, the future study of which will, in the opinion of the author, provide deep insights into many fundamental but not yet completely answered questions about the transcriptional biology of eukaryotes and its regulation.

Characterizing the regulation of mitochondrial nucleoids

Mitochondria contain a 16.6 kb circular genome encoding 13 proteins as well as mitochondrial tRNAs and rRNAs. Copies of the genome are organized into nucleoids containing both DNA and proteins, including the machinery required for mtDNA replication and transcription. Although mtDNA integrity is essential for cellular and organismal viability, regulation of proliferation of the mitochondrial genome is poorly understood. To elucidate the mechanisms behind this, we chose to study the interplay between mtDNA copy number and the proteins involved in mitochondrial fusion, another required function in cells. Strikingly, we found that mouse embryonic fibroblasts lacking fusion also had a mtDNA copy number deficit. To understand this phenomenon further, we analyzed the binding of mitochondrial transcription factor A, whose role in transcription, replication, and packaging of the genome is well-established and crucial for cellular maintenance. Using ChIP-seq, we were able to detect largely uniform, non-specific binding across the genome, with no occupancy in the known specific binding sites in the regulatory region. We did detect a single binding site directly upstream of a known origin of replication, suggesting that TFAM may play a direct role in replication. Finally, although TFAM has been previously shown to localize to the nuclear genome, we found no evidence for such binding sites in our system.

To further understand the regulation of mtDNA by other proteins, we analyzed publicly available ChIP-seq datasets from ENCODE, modENCODE, and mouseENCODE for evidence of nuclear transcription factor binding to the mitochondrial genome. We identified eight human transcription factors and three mouse transcription factors that demonstrated binding events with the classical strand asymmetrical morphology of classical binding sites. ChIP-seq is a powerful tool for understanding the interactions between proteins and the mitochondrial genome, and future studies promise to further the understanding of how mtDNA is regulated within the nucleoid.

DNA-mediated oxidation of transcription factor p53

Transcription factor p53 is the most commonly altered gene in human cancer. As a redox-active protein in direct contact with DNA, p53 can directly sense oxidative stress through DNA-mediated charge transport. Electron hole transport occurs with a shallow distance dependence over long distances through the π-stacked DNA bases, leading to the oxidation and dissociation of DNA-bound p53. The extent of p53 dissociation depends upon the redox potential of the response element DNA in direct contact with each p53 monomer. The DNA sequence dependence of p53 oxidative dissociation was examined by electrophoretic mobility shift assays using radiolabeled oligonucleotides containing both synthetic and human p53 response elements with an appended anthraquinone photooxidant. Greater p53 dissociation is observed from DNA sequences containing low redox potential purine regions, particularly guanine triplets, within the p53 response element. Using denaturing polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis of irradiated anthraquinone-modified DNA, the DNA damage sites, which correspond to locations of preferred electron hole localization, were determined. The resulting DNA damage preferentially localizes to guanine doublets and triplets within the response element. Oxidative DNA damage is inhibited in the presence of p53, however, only at DNA sites within the response element, and therefore in direct contact with p53. From these data, predictions about the sensitivity of human p53-binding sites to oxidative stress, as well as possible biological implications, have been made. On the basis of our data, the guanine pattern within the purine region of each p53-binding site determines the response of p53 to DNA-mediated oxidation, yielding for some sequences the oxidative dissociation of p53 from a distance and thereby providing another potential role for DNA charge transport chemistry within the cell.

To determine whether the change in p53 response element occupancy observed in vitro also correlates in cellulo, chromatin immunoprecipition (ChIP) and quantitative PCR (qPCR) were used to directly quantify p53 binding to certain response elements in HCT116N cells. The HCT116N cells containing a wild type p53 were treated with the photooxidant [Rh(phi)2bpy]³⁺, Nutlin-3 to upregulate p53, and subsequently irradiated to induce oxidative genomic stress. To covalently tether p53 interacting with DNA, the cells were fixed with disuccinimidyl glutarate and formaldehyde. The nuclei of the harvested cells were isolated, sonicated, and immunoprecipitated using magnetic beads conjugated with a monoclonal p53 antibody. The purified immounoprecipiated DNA was then quantified via qPCR and genomic sequencing. Overall, the ChIP results were significantly varied over ten experimental trials, but one trend is observed overall: greater variation of p53 occupancy is observed in response elements from which oxidative dissociation would be expected, while significantly less change in p53 occupancy occurs for response elements from which oxidative dissociation would not be anticipated.

The chemical oxidation of transcription factor p53 via DNA CT was also investigated with respect to the protein at the amino acid level. Transcription factor p53 plays a critical role in the cellular response to stress stimuli, which may be modulated through the redox modulation of conserved cysteine residues within the DNA-binding domain. Residues within p53 that enable oxidative dissociation are herein investigated. Of the 8 mutants studied by electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA), only the C275S mutation significantly decreased the protein affinity (KD) for the Gadd45 response element. EMSA assays of p53 oxidative dissociation promoted by photoexcitation of anthraquinone-tethered Gadd45 oligonucleotides were used to determine the influence of p53 mutations on oxidative dissociation; mutation to C275S severely attenuates oxidative dissociation while C277S substantially attenuates dissociation. Differential thiol labeling was used to determine the oxidation states of cysteine residues within p53 after DNA-mediated oxidation. Reduced cysteines were iodoacetamide labeled, while oxidized cysteines participating in disulfide bonds were ¹³C₂D₂-iodoacetamide labeled. Intensities of respective iodoacetamide-modified peptide fragments were analyzed using a QTRAP 6500 LC-MS/MS system, quantified with Skyline, and directly compared. A distinct shift in peptide labeling toward ¹³C₂D₂-iodoacetamide labeled cysteines is observed in oxidized samples as compared to the respective controls. All of the observable cysteine residues trend toward the heavy label under conditions of DNA CT, indicating the formation of multiple disulfide bonds potentially among the C124, C135, C141, C182, C275, and C277. Based on these data it is proposed that disulfide formation involving C275 is critical for inducing oxidative dissociation of p53 from DNA.

Cavity Optomechanics at Millikelvin Temperatures

The field of cavity optomechanics, which concerns the coupling of a mechanical object's motion to the electromagnetic field of a high finesse cavity, allows for exquisitely sensitive measurements of mechanical motion, from large-scale gravitational wave detection to microscale accelerometers. Moreover, it provides a potential means to control and engineer the state of a macroscopic mechanical object at the quantum level, provided one can realize sufficiently strong interaction strengths relative to the ambient thermal noise. Recent experiments utilizing the optomechanical interaction to cool mechanical resonators to their motional quantum ground state allow for a variety of quantum engineering applications, including preparation of non-classical mechanical states and coherent optical to microwave conversion. Optomechanical crystals (OMCs), in which bandgaps for both optical and mechanical waves can be introduced through patterning of a material, provide one particularly attractive means for realizing strong interactions between high-frequency mechanical resonators and near-infrared light. Beyond the usual paradigm of cavity optomechanics involving isolated single mechanical elements, OMCs can also be fashioned into planar circuits for photons and phonons, and arrays of optomechanical elements can be interconnected via optical and acoustic waveguides. Such coupled OMC arrays have been proposed as a way to realize quantum optomechanical memories, nanomechanical circuits for continuous variable quantum information processing and phononic quantum networks, and as a platform for engineering and studying quantum many-body physics of optomechanical meta-materials.

However, while ground state occupancies (that is, average phonon occupancies less than one) have been achieved in OMC cavities utilizing laser cooling techniques, parasitic absorption and the concomitant degradation of the mechanical quality factor fundamentally limit this approach. On the other hand, the high mechanical frequency of these systems allows for the possibility of using a dilution refrigerator to simultaneously achieve low thermal occupancy and long mechanical coherence time by passively cooling the device to the millikelvin regime. This thesis describes efforts to realize the measurement of OMC cavities inside a dilution refrigerator, including the development of fridge-compatible optical coupling schemes and the characterization of the heating dynamics of the mechanical resonator at sub-kelvin temperatures.

We will begin by summarizing the theoretical framework used to describe cavity optomechanical systems, as well as a handful of the quantum applications envisioned for such devices. Then, we will present background on the design of the nanobeam OMC cavities used for this work, along with details of the design and characterization of tapered fiber couplers for optical coupling inside the fridge. Finally, we will present measurements of the devices at fridge base temperatures of T_f = 10 mK, using both heterodyne spectroscopy and time-resolved sideband photon counting, as well as detailed analysis of the prospects for future quantum applications based on the observed optically-induced heating.

Targeting DNA repeat sequences with Py-Im polyamides

Hairpin pyrrole-imdazole polyamides are cell-permeable, sequence-programmable oligomers that bind in the minor groove of DNA. This thesis describes studies of Py-Im polyamides targeted to biologically important DNA repeat sequences for the purpose of modulating disease states. Design of a hairpin polyamide that binds the CG dyad, a site of DNA methylation that can become dysregulated in cancer, is described. We report the synthesis of a DNA methylation antagonist, its sequence specificity and affinity informed by Bind-n-Seq and iteratively designed, which improves inhibitory activity in a cell-free assay by 1000-fold to low nanomolar IC50. Additionally, a hairpin polyamide targeted to the telomeric sequence is found to trigger a slow necrotic-type cell death with the release of inflammatory molecules in a model of B cell lymphoma. The effects of the polyamide are unique in this class of oligomers; its effects are characterized and a functional assay of phagocytosis by macrophages is described. Additionally, hairpin polyamides targeted to pathologically expanded CTG•CAG triplet repeat DNA sequences, the molecular cause of myotonic dystrophy type 1, are synthesized and assessed for toxicity. Lastly, ChIP-seq of Hypoxia-Inducible Factor is performed under hypoxia-induced conditions. The study results show that ChIP-seq can be employed to understand the genome-wide perturbation of Hypoxia-Inducible Factor occupancy by a Py-Im polyamide.

A variational framework for spectral discretization of the density matrix in Kohn Sham density functional theory

Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KSDFT) is currently the main work-horse of quantum mechanical calculations in physics, chemistry, and materials science. From a mechanical engineering perspective, we are interested in studying the role of defects in the mechanical properties in materials. In real materials, defects are typically found at very small concentrations e.g., vacancies occur at parts per million, dislocation density in metals ranges from $10^{10} m^{-2}$ to $10^{15} m^{-2}$, and grain sizes vary from nanometers to micrometers in polycrystalline materials, etc. In order to model materials at realistic defect concentrations using DFT, we would need to work with system sizes beyond millions of atoms. Due to the cubic-scaling computational cost with respect to the number of atoms in conventional DFT implementations, such system sizes are unreachable. Since the early 1990s, there has been a huge interest in developing DFT implementations that have linear-scaling computational cost. A promising approach to achieving linear-scaling cost is to approximate the density matrix in KSDFT. The focus of this thesis is to provide a firm mathematical framework to study the convergence of these approximations. We reformulate the Kohn-Sham density functional theory as a nested variational problem in the density matrix, the electrostatic potential, and a field dual to the electron density. The corresponding functional is linear in the density matrix and thus amenable to spectral representation. Based on this reformulation, we introduce a new approximation scheme, called spectral binning, which does not require smoothing of the occupancy function and thus applies at arbitrarily low temperatures. We proof convergence of the approximate solutions with respect to spectral binning and with respect to an additional spatial discretization of the domain. For a standard one-dimensional benchmark problem, we present numerical experiments for which spectral binning exhibits excellent convergence characteristics and outperforms other linear-scaling methods.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.