Optimization of water procurement decisions in an irrigation district: the role of option contracts

Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district?s board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south-eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district?s decisions. Key words: Segura Basin, stochastic recursive programming, water markets, water supply option contract, water supply risk.

Mineralogy of some Australian desert samples (Table 3)

The relative amounts of chlorite, montmorillonite, kaolinite and illite in the less than 2 micron size fraction of pelagic sediments are related to the sources and transport paths of solid phases from the continents to the oceans and to injections of volcanic materials to the marine environment. Three modes of entry of solid phases from the lands to the seas are considered: by glaciers, by rivers and by atmospheric winds. The compositions of the clay size fraction are also related to rates of accumulation of the non-biogenous phases.

Postmaterial values and age: The case of Australia

Inglehart's thesis of value change is one of the most widely discussed accounts of social and political change in advanced Western nations. This article offers a critique of Inglehart's thesis and a clarification of the Australian case. While critics of Inglehart have attacked the validity of his values measures, or sought to improve them, we use Inglehart's own values index to show that even if-as Inglehart claims-his measures are valid, the age/values predictions do not hold as the theory suggests in Australia. In a recent article, Inglehart and Abramson (1999, 673) cite Australia among a group of '28 high-income' countries that exhibit 'stronger relationships between values and age' than found in the United States. We dispute Inglehart and Abramson's findings in relation to Australia. We show that the relationship between age and values in Australia, like the United States, is very weak, highlight the problematic nature of assuming a linear relationship between age and values without evidence, and discover a new non-linear relationship between values and birth cohorts in Australia that has implications for the study of values research internationally.

The outcome in Australian children with hyperinsulinism of infancy: early extensive surgery in severe cases lowers risk of diabetes

AIMS Hyperinsulinism of infancy (HI) is characterized by unregulated insulin secretion in the presence of hypoglycaemia, often resulting in brain damage. Pancreatic resection for control of hypoglycaemia is frequently resisted because of the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). We investigated retrospectively 62 children with HI from nine Australian treatment centres born between 1972 and 1998, comparing endocrine and neurological outcome in 28 patients receiving medical therapy alone with 34 who required pancreatic resection to control their hypoglycaemia. METHODS History, treatment and clinical course were ascertained from file audit and interview. Risk of DM (hazard ratio) attributable to age at surgery (< vs. greater than or equal to 100 days at last pancreatectomy) and extent of resection (< vs. greater than or equal to 95%) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and categorical variables compared by the chi(2) -test. Neurological outcome (normal, mild deficit or severe deficit) was derived from the most authoritative source. RESULTS Surgically treated patients had a greater birthweight, earlier presentation and higher plasma insulin levels. Of 18 infants < 100 days and 16 greater than or equal to 100 days of age at surgery, four (all greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic as an immediate consequence of surgery and five (two < 100 days and three greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic 7-18 years later. Surgery greater than or equal to 100 days and pancreatectomy greater than or equal to 95% were associated with development of diabetes (HR = 12.61, CI 1.53-104.07 and HR = 7.03, CI 1.43-34.58, respectively). Neurodevelopmental outcome was no different between the surgical and medical groups with 44% overall with neurological deficits. Patients euglycaemic within 35 days of the first symptom of hypoglycaemia (Group A) had a better neurodevelopmental outcome than those still hypoglycaemic > 35 days from first presentation (Group B) (P = 0.007). Prolonged hypoglycaemia in Group B was due either to delayed diagnosis or to need for repeat surgery because of continued hypoglycaemia. Within Group A, medically treated patients (who presented later with apparently milder disease) had a higher incidence of neurodevelopmental deficit (n = 15, four mild, three severe deficit) compared with surgically treated patients (n = 18, two mild, none severe deficit) (P < 0.025). CONCLUSIONS Poor neurodevelopmental outcome remains a major problem in hyperinsulinism of infancy. Risk of diabetes mellitus with pancreatectomy varies according to age at surgery and extent of resection. Patients presenting early with severe disease have a better neurodevelopmental outcome and lower risk of diabetes if they are treated with early extensive surgery.

Management of isolated orbital floor blow-out fractures: a survey of Australian and New Zealand oral and maxillofacial surgeons

Background: This is the first report of involvement of Australian and New Zealand oral and maxillofacial surgeons in the management of isolated orbital floor blow-out fractures and was conducted to obtain comparisons with the results from a recent similar survey of British oral and maxillofacial surgeons. Methods: A questionnaire survey was sent to all 113 practising members of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons in April 2002 with a second mailout 1 month later. Results: Sixty-nine per cent of the respondents were referred isolated orbital floor blow-out fractures for manage-ment, and just over half of these respondents estimated that 50% or more of the cases went to surgery. The materials most commonly used in orbital floor reconstruction were resorbable membrane for small defects and autologous bone for large defects. Conclusion: As in Britain, management of isolated orbital floor blow-out fractures comprises part of the surgical spectrum for many oral and maxillofacial surgeons in Australia and New Zealand. The management protocol was observed to be very similar between the two groups.

Standing with assistance of a tilt table in intensive care: A survey of Australian physiotherapy practice

Although tilt tables are used by physiotherapists to reintroduce patients to the vertical position, no quantitative evidence is available regarding their use within intensive care units (ICUs) of Australian hospitals. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of tilt tables in physiotherapy management of patients in ICUs across Australia. Ninety-nine physiotherapists working in Australian public ICUs were contacted via mail and asked to complete a questionnaire regarding their use of tilt tables in practice. Reasons for the use of the tilt table, contraindications, commonly used adjuncts, monitoring, and outcome measures were also investigated. Eighty-six questionnaires were returned (87% response). The tilt table was used by 58 physiotherapists (67.4%). The most common reasons for inclusion of tilt table treatment were to: facilitate weight bearing (94.8% of those who tilt); prevent muscle contractures (86%); improve lower limb strength (81%); and increase arousal (70%). The tilt table was most frequently applied to patients with neurological conditions (63.8%) and during long-term ICU stay (43.1%). Techniques often combined with tilt table treatment included upper limb exercises (93.1%) and breathing exercises (86.2%). Standing with assistance of the tilt table is used by the majority of physiotherapists working in Australian ICUs. A moderate level of agreement is demonstrated by physiotherapists regarding indications to commence tilt table treatment and adjunct modalities combined with standing with assistance of the tilt table.

Defining nicotine dependence for genetic research: evidence from Australian twins

Background. Whether current criteria used to define nicotine dependence are informative for genetic research is an important empirical question. The authors used items of the DSM-IV and of the Heaviness of Smoking Index to characterize the nicotine dependence phenotype and to identify salient symptoms in a genetically informative community sample of Australian young adult female and mate twins. Method. Phenotypic and genetic factor analyses were performed on nine dependence symptoms (the seven DSM-IV substance dependence criteria and the two Heaviness of Smoking Index (HSI) items derived from the Fagerstrom Tolerance Questionnaire, time to first cigarette in the morning and number of cigarettes smoked per day). Phenotypic and genetic analyses were restricted to ever smokers. Results. Phenotypic nicotine dependence symptom covariation was best captured by two factors with a similar pattern of factor loadings for women and men. In genetic factor analysis item covariation was best captured by two genetic but one shared environmental factor for both women and men; however, item factor loadings differed by gender. All nicotine dependence symptoms were substantially heritable, except for the DSM-IV criterion of 'giving up or reducing important activities in order to smoke', which was weakly familial. Conclusions. The salient behavioral indices of nicotine dependence are similar for women and men. DSM-IV criteria of tolerance, withdrawal, and experiencing difficulty quitting and HSI items time to first cigarette in the morning and number of cigarettes smoked per day may represent the most highly heritable symptoms of nicotine dependence for both women and men.

Aeropalynology of Australian native arboreal species in Brisbane, Australia

The influence of meteorological parameters on airborne pollen of Australian native arboreal species was investigated in the sub-tropical city of Brisbane, Australia over the five-year period, June 1994–May 1999. Australian native arboreal pollen (ANAP), shed by taxa belonging to the families Cupressaceae, Casuarinaceae and Myrtaceae accounts for 18.4% of the total annual pollen count and is distributed in the atmosphere during the entire year with maximum loads restricted to the months May through November. Daily counts within the range 11–100 grains m–3 occurred over short intervals each year and were recorded on 100 days during the five-year sampling period. Total seasonal ANAP concentrations varied each year, with highest annual values measured for the family Cupressaceae, for which greater seasonal frequencies were shown to be related to pre-seasonal precipitation (r 2 = 0.76, p = 0.05). Seasonal start dates were near consistent for the Cupressaceae and Casuarinaceae. Myrtaceae start dates were variable and established to be directly related to lower average pre-seasonal maximum temperature (r 2 = 0.78, p = 0.04). Associations between daily ANAP loads and weather parameters showed that densities of airborne Cupressaceae and Casuarinaceae pollen were negatively correlated with maximum temperature (p < 0.0001), minimum temperature (p < 0.0001) and precipitation (p < 0.05), whereas associations with daily Myrtaceae pollen counts were not statistically significant. This is the first study to be conducted in Australia that has assessed the relationships between weather parameters and the airborne distribution of pollen emitted by Australian native arboreal species. Pollen shed by Australian native Cupressaceae, Casuarinaceae and Myrtaceae species are considered to be important aeroallergens overseas, however their significance as a sensitising source in Australia remains unclear and requires further investigation.