Addressing wildfire risk in forest management with a wildfire resistance indicator

Mestrado Mediterranean Forestry and Natural Resources Management - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

A novel approach to reduce fire exposure and promote nature conservation in Mediterranean ecosystems: the case study of Reserva Natural da Serra da Malcata, Portugal

Mestrado Mediterranean Forestry and Natural Resources Management - Instituto Superior de Agronomia - UL

Hepatite Tóxica Induzida por Produtos Fitoterapêuticos: Natural Não é Sinónimo de Seguro

A case of toxic hepatitis induced by a fat burner natural product is reported. Pathogenic mechanisms of hepatotoxicity arediscussed, and causality nexus is analyzed. The goal of this presentation is to alert for the risk of severe adverse events while consuming falsely harmless products.

Influência da substituição de areia natural por pó de pedra no comportamento mecânico, microestrutural e eletroquímico de concretos

The construction industry is one of the largest consumers of natural raw materials, and concrete is considered today the most used material wide. This accentuated consumption of natural resources has generated concern with the preservation of the environment, and has motivated various studies related to the use of resid ues, which can partially or entirely substitute, with satisfactory performance, some materials such as the aggregate, and in so doing, decrease the impact on the environment caused by the produced residues. Research has been done to better understand and improve the microstructure of concrete, as well as to understand the mechanism of corrosion in reinforced steel. In this context, this work was developed aiming at discovering the influence of the substitution of natural sand by artificial sand, with rega rd to mechanical resistance, microstructure, and durability. To obtain the electrochemical parameters, an adaptation was made to the galvanostatic electrochemical method to study the corrosion in reinforced steel. Concretes of categories 20 MPa and 40 MPa were produced, containing natural sand, and concretes of the same categories were produced with artificial sand substituting the natural sand, and with the addition of sodium nitrate and sodium chloride. Due to the use of rock dust reject (artificial sand), an evaluation was made of its environmental risk. The results indicate that the concretes of category 20 MPa present a better performance than the concrete made with natural sand, thus making it a viable substitute. For the category 40 MPa, the better performance is from the concrete containing natural sand. The adaptation of the galvanostatic electrochemical technique to the study of the corrosion of reinforced steel within concrete proved to be valid for obtaining electrochemical parameters with a high degree of reliability, considering the number of degrees of freedom

Mercury in Gas Operations - Occupational Health Risk Assessment

The project goal was to determine plant operations and maintenance worker’s level of exposure to mercury during routine and non-routine (i.e. turnarounds and inspections) maintenance events in eight gas processing plants. The project team prepared sampling and analysis plans designed to each plant’s process design and scheduled maintenance events. Occupational exposure sampling and monitoring efforts were focused on the measurement of mercury vapor concentration in worker breathing zone air during specific maintenance events including: pipe scrapping, process filter replacement, and process vessel inspection. Similar exposure groups were identified and worker breathing zone and ambient air samples were collected and analyzed for total mercury. Occupational exposure measurement techniques included portable field monitoring instruments, standard passive and active monitoring methods and an emerging passive absorption technology. Process sampling campaigns were focused on inlet gas streams, mercury removal unit outlets, treated gas, acid gas and sales gas. The results were used to identify process areas with increased potential for mercury exposure during maintenance events. Sampling methods used for the determination of total mercury in gas phase streams were based on the USEPA Methods 30B and EPA 1631 and EPA 1669. The results of four six-week long sampling campaigns have been evaluated and some conclusions and recommendations have been made. The author’s role in this project included the direction of all field phases of the project and the development and implementation of the sampling strategy. Additionally, the author participated in the development and implementation of the Quality Assurance Project Plan, Data Quality Objectives, and Similar Exposure Groups identification. All field generated data was reviewed by the author along with laboratory reports in order to generate conclusions and recommendations.

Predictors of Adolescent Sexual Intentions and Behavior: Attitudes, Parenting, and Neighborhood Risk

The current study was a cross-sectional examination of data collected during an HIV risk reduction intervention in south Florida. The purpose of the study was to explore the relationships between neighborhood stress, parenting, attitudes, and adolescent sexual intentions and behavior. The Theory of Planned Behavior was used as a model to guide variable selection and propose an interaction pathway between predictors and outcomes. Potential predictor variables measured for adolescents ages 13-18 (n=196) included communication about sex, parent-family connectedness, parental presence, parent-adolescent activity participation, attitudes about sex and condom use, neighborhood disorder, and exposure to violence. Outcomes were behavioral intentions and sexual behavior for the previous eight months. Neighborhood data was supplemented with ZIP Code level data from regional sources and included median household income, percentage of minority and Hispanic residents, and number of foreclosures. Statistical tests included t-tests, Pearson’s correlations, and hierarchical linear regressions. Results showed that males and older adolescents reported less positive behavioral intentions than females and adolescents younger than 16. Intentions were associated with condom attitudes, sexual attitudes, and parental presence; unprotected sexual behavior was associated with parental presence. The best fit model for intentions included gender, sexual attitudes, condom attitudes, parental presence, and neighborhood disorder. The unsafe sexual behavior model included whether the participant lived with both natural parents in the previous year, and the percent of Hispanic residents in the neighborhood. Study findings indicate that more research on adolescent sexual behavior is warranted, specifically examining the differentials between variables that affect intentions and those that affect behavior. A focus on gender and age differences during intervention development may allow for better targeting and more efficacious interventions. Adding peer and media influences to the framework of attitudes, parenting, and neighborhood may offer more insight into patterns of adolescent sexual behavior risk.

Four Essays of Environmental Risk-Mitigation

Expected damages of environmental risks depend both on their intensities and probabilities. There is very little control over probabilities of climate related disasters such as hurricanes. Therefore, researchers of social science are interested identifying preparation and mitigation measures that build human resilience to disasters and avoid serious loss. Conversely, environmental degradation, which is a process through which the natural environment is compromised in some way, has been accelerated by human activities. As scientists are finding effective ways on how to prevent and reduce pollution, the society often fails to adopt these effective preventive methods. Researchers of psychological and contextual characterization offer specific lessons for policy interventions that encourage human efforts to reduce pollution. This dissertation addresses four discussions of effective policy regimes encouraging pro-environmental preference in consumption and production, and promoting risk mitigation behavior in the face of natural hazards. The first essay describes how the speed of adoption of environment friendly technologies is driven largely by consumers’ preferences and their learning dynamics rather than producers’ choice. The second essay is an empirical analysis of a choice experiment to understand preferences for energy efficient investments. The empirical analysis suggests that subjects tend to increase energy efficient investment when they pay a pollution tax proportional to the total expenditure on energy consumption. However, investments in energy efficiency seem to be crowded out when subjects have the option to buy health insurance to cover pollution related health risks. In context of hurricane risk mitigation and in evidence of recently adopted My Safe Florida Home (MSFH) program by the State of Florida, the third essay shows that households with home insurance, prior experience with damages, and with a higher sense of vulnerability to be affected by hurricanes are more likely to allow home inspection to seek mitigation information. The fourth essay evaluates the impact of utility disruption on household well being based on the responses of a household-level phone survey in the wake of hurricane Wilma. Findings highlight the need for significant investment to enhance the capacity of rapid utility restoration after a hurricane event in the context of South Florida.

Distribution of Light in the Human Retina under Natural Viewing Conditions

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness inAmerica. The fact that AMD wreaks most of the damage in the center of the retina raises the question of whether light, integrated over long periods, is more concentrated in the macula. A method, based on eye-tracking, was developed to measure the distribution of light in the retina under natural viewing conditions. The hypothesis was that integrated over time, retinal illumination peaked in the macula. Additionally a possible relationship between age and retinal illumination was investigated. The eye tracker superimposed the subject’s gaze position on a video recorded by a scene camera. Five informed subjects were employed in feasibility tests, and 58 naïve subjects participated in 5 phases. In phase 1 the subjects viewed a gray-scale image. In phase 2, they observed a sequence of photographic images. In phase 3 they viewed a video. In phase 4, they worked on a computer; in phase 5, the subjects walked around freely. The informed subjects were instructed to gaze at bright objects in the field of view and then at dark objects. Naïve subjects were allowed to gaze freely for all phases. Using the subject’s gaze coordinates, and the video provided by the scene camera, the cumulative light distribution on the retina was calculated for ~15° around the fovea. As expected for control subjects, cumulative retinal light distributions peaked and dipped in the fovea when they gazed at bright or dark objects respectively. The light distribution maps obtained from the naïve subjects presented a tendency to peak in the macula for phases 1, 2, and 3, a consistent tendency in phase 4 and a variable tendency in phase 5. The feasibility of using an eye-tracker system to measure the distribution of light in the retina was demonstrated, thus helping to understand the role played by light exposure in the etiology of AMD. Results showed that a tendency for light to peak in the macula is a characteristic of some individuals and of certain tasks. In these situations, risk of AMD could be increased. No significant difference was observed based on age.

Lessons from natural disasters, tsunami-affected Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises(SMEs) in Sri Lanka

The main objective of this paper is to identify some of the key issues encountered by tsunami-affected small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the process of rehabilitation and re-establishment in Sri Lanka. The second objective is to assess how far these affected industries have received various benefits and supports from bodies such as government agencies, private sector firms, donors and NGOs to help them get back into business. The final objective is to recommend policies and strategies to develop the tsunami-affected SMEs in a self-sustaining manner and within a certain time period. The main database of firms for this research has been obtained from the Industrial Development Board, which conducted a survey covering 4,389 tsunami-affected micro- and SMEs. In addition to this, information from various state organizations and NGOs-based sources has been used. This paper identifies the main issues related to tsunami-affected SMEs ranging from basic infrastructure provision up to finance, marketing, machinery, technology, training, product identification and development and so forth. In fact, it is shown that there are no significant differences between issues faced by SMEs in general and tsunami-affected SMEs, apart of course from the effects of a sudden disaster (the tidal wave). Consequently, these issues can be generalized as issues relevant to SMEs in Sri Lanka as a whole. However, under the flood and rain of local and foreign assistance, there have been more pledges and promises than actual deliveries and, so, tsunami-affected SMEs have received comparatively little support and assistance in recovering and no records can be found as to where the colossal amount of foreign assistance received has actually gone. Finally, this paper recommends various types of business incubator centres and entrepreneurial enhancing skill programmes for the revamping of tsunami-affected SMEs in addition to the normal disaster risk management plan.

Factors driving the abundance of ixodes ricinus ticks and the prevalence of zoonotic I. ricinus-borne pathogens in natural foci

Environmental factors may drive tick ecology and therefore tick-borne pathogen (TBP) epidemiology, which determines the risk to animals and humans of becoming infected by TBPs. For this reason, the aim of this study was to analyze the influence of environmental factors on the abundance of immature-stage Ixodes ricinus ticks and on the prevalence of two zoonotic I. ricinus-borne pathogens in natural foci of endemicity. I. ricinus abundance was measured at nine sites in the northern Iberian Peninsula by dragging the vegetation with a cotton flannelette, and ungulate abundance was measured by means of dung counts. In addition to ungulate abundance, data on variables related to spatial location, climate, and soil were gathered from the study sites. I. ricinus adults, nymphs, and larvae were collected from the vegetation, and a representative subsample of I. ricinus nymphs from each study site was analyzed by PCR for the detection of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and Anaplasma phagocytophilum DNA. Mean prevalences of these pathogens were 4.0% ± 1.8% and 20.5% ± 3.7%, respectively. Statistical analyses confirmed the influence of spatial factors, climate, and ungulate abundance on I. ricinus larva abundance, while nymph abundance was related only to climate. Interestingly, cattle abundance rather than deer abundance was the main driver of B. burgdorferi sensu lato and A. phagocytophilum prevalence in I. ricinus nymphs in the study sites, where both domestic and wild ungulates coexist. The increasing abundance of cattle seems to increase the risk of other hosts becoming infected by A. phagocytophilum, while reducing the risk of being infected by B. burgdorferi sensu lato. Controlling ticks in cattle in areas where they coexist with wild ungulates would be more effective for TBP control than reducing ungulate abundance.

Percepción de los trabajadores acerca de la seguridad en el trabajo en una empresa del sector de gas natural en Casanare

Introducción: La percepción puede ser considerada principalmente como un grupo de procesos internos en las personas que genera en los observadores una representación mental del entorno. Percibir es adelantarse al suceso, a lo que puede llegar a suceder, determinando lo que puede ser un peligro a nuestra seguridad y salud. Objetivo: El presente estudio tiene como objetivo determinar la percepción de los trabajadores acerca de la seguridad en el trabajo en áreas de procesos automatizados y mecánicas en una empresa del sector de gas natural en el departamento de Casanare, Colombia 2016. Metodología: Se llevó a cabo un estudio de corte transversal en 50 trabajadores de una empresa del sector de gas natural en Casanare. Se uttilizó el Cuestionario nórdico NOSACQ-50-Spanish, instrumento validado para evaluar la percepción acerca de la seguridad y salud en el lugar de trabajo. Se incluyeron variables sociodemográficas, laborales y las relacionadas con la percepción de la seguridad en el lugar del trabajo. Para el análsiis estadistico se calcularon medidas de tendencia central y de dispersión. El estudio de la percepción de seguridad tuvo como puntos de corte: < 2,5 mala percepción y > 2,5 buena percepción. Se emplearon pruebas de asociación X2 o test exacto de Fisher (valores esperados <5) y medidas de asociación OR con sus intervalos de confianza del 95% y se usaron modelos de regresión lineal. Resultados: El total de trabajadores fue de 50 personas, el 76% correspondió al sexo masculino y la mayor distribución se presentó en áreas mecánicas con 52% frente al 48% que se encontró en áreas automatizadas. Se halló asociación estadísticamente significativa entre las variables sociodemográficas área/sexo (Pr = 0,016), indicando que a los trabajadores de sexo femenino se les ubican en el área mecánica mientras que los de sexo masculino, laboran en todas las áreas sin darle relevancia al género. También se encontró asociación con las variables área/año de nacimiento (Pr =0.022), indicando que en el área automatizada se dejan profesionales con promedio de edad de 32 años, por el tipo de requisitos en competencias que exigen para ejecutar las labores. Para las demás variables ocupacionales que evaluaron la percepción de seguridad frente al trabajo, no se encontró asociación significativa. Conclusión: Los resultados permiten realizar acciones en pro de mejorar la percepción de los trabajadores dentro de la organización. Se podrán desarrollar programas de seguridad y salud en el trabajo, que respondan de manera efectiva a los peligros laborales detectados.

Double Dyke System - Natural engineering solutions

According to various studies, the effects of climate change will be a danger to ecosystems and the population, especially in coastal areas, increasing the risk of floods. Authorities are taking action to prevent future disasters using traditional engineering solutions. These solutions can have high environmental and economic costs, fixing the coastline, increasing the salinization of aquifers, and can be subject to failure mechanisms. For this reason, studies were made to use natural engineering solutions for coastal protection, instead of traditional solutions, to achieve the UN SDGs. Coastal ecosystems have the natural ability to repair and restore themselves, increasing soil elevation, and attenuating waves. One of these solutions is the Double Dyke System, consisting of creating a salt marsh between the first dyke and a second inland. The goal is to protect the coasts and to restore ecosystems. The purpose of this study is to compare the costs of natural engineering solutions with traditional ones. It is assumed that these solutions may be more effective and less expensive in the long run. For this evaluation, a suitability analysis of the polders in the Dutch Zeeland region to assess the costs and benefits under different SLR scenarios was made. A saline intrusion model was also created to analyze the effects of a salt marsh on the aquifers. From the analyzes conducted, the implementation of the DDS turns out to be the cheapest coastal defense system in all SLR scenarios. The presence of a salt marsh could also have a positive impact on the prevention of saline intrusion in the various scenarios considered. The DDS could have a positive economic and environmental impact in the long term, reducing the investment costs for coastal defense and bringing important benefits for the protection of man and nature. Despite the results, more studies are needed on the efficiency of this defense system and on the economic evaluation of non-marketable ecosystem services.

A framework for risk analysis in automotive cybersecurity

We address the problem of automotive cybersecurity from the point of view of Threat Analysis and Risk Assessment (TARA). The central question that motivates the thesis is the one about the acceptability of risk, which is vital in taking a decision about the implementation of cybersecurity solutions. For this purpose, we develop a quantitative framework in which we take in input the results of risk assessment and define measures of various facets of a possible risk response; we then exploit the natural presence of trade-offs (cost versus effectiveness) to formulate the problem as a multi-objective optimization. Finally, we develop a stochastic model of the future evolution of the risk factors, by means of Markov chains; we adapt the formulations of the optimization problems to this non-deterministic context. The thesis is the result of a collaboration with the Vehicle Electrification division of Marelli, in particular with the Cybersecurity team based in Bologna; this allowed us to consider a particular instance of the problem, deriving from a real TARA, in order to test both the deterministic and the stochastic framework in a real world application. The collaboration also explains why in the work we often assume the point of view of a tier-1 supplier; however, the analyses performed can be adapted to any other level of the supply chain.

Analysis of technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech) in the perspective of climate change

The severe accidents deriving from the impact of natural events on industrial installations have become a matter of growing concern in the last decades. In the literature, these events are typically referred to as Natech accidents. Several peculiarities distinguish them from conventional industrial accidents caused by internal factors, such as the possible occurrence of multiple simultaneous failures, and the enhanced probability of cascading events. The research project provides a comprehensive overview of Natech accidents that occurred in the Chemical and Process Industry, allowing for the identification of relevant aspects of Natech events. Quantified event trees and probability of ignition are derived from the collected dataset, providing a step forward in the quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. The investigation of past Natech accidents also demonstrated that wildfires may cause technological accidents. Climate change and global warming are promoting the conditions for wildfire development and rapid spread. Hence, ensuring the safety of industrial facilities exposed to wildfires is paramount. This was achieved defining safety distances between wildland vegetation and industrial equipment items. In addition, an innovative methodology for the vulnerability assessment of Natech and Domino scenarios triggered by wildfires was developed. The approach accounted for the dynamic behaviour of wildfire events and related technological scenarios. Besides, the performance of the emergency response and the related intervention time in the case of cascading events caused by natural events were evaluated. Overall, the tools presented in this thesis represent a step forward in the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natech accidents. The methodologies developed also provide a solid basis for the definition of effective strategies for risk mitigation and reduction. These aspects are crucial to improve the resilience of industrial plants to natural hazards, especially considering the effects that climate change may have on the severity of such events.

Distributed argumentation technology: advancing risk analysis and regulatory compliance of distributed ledger technologies for transaction and management of securities

Distributed argumentation technology is a computational approach incorporating argumentation reasoning mechanisms within multi-agent systems. For the formal foundations of distributed argumentation technology, in this thesis we conduct a principle-based analysis of structured argumentation as well as abstract multi-agent and abstract bipolar argumentation. The results of the principle-based approach of these theories provide an overview and guideline for further applications of the theories. Moreover, in this thesis we explore distributed argumentation technology using distributed ledgers. We envision an Intelligent Human-input-based Blockchain Oracle (IHiBO), an artificial intelligence tool for storing argumentation reasoning. We propose a decentralized and secure architecture for conducting decision-making, addressing key concerns of trust, transparency, and immutability. We model fund management with agent argumentation in IHiBO and analyze its compliance with European fund management legal frameworks. We illustrate how bipolar argumentation balances pros and cons in legal reasoning in a legal divorce case, and how the strength of arguments in natural language can be represented in structured arguments. Finally, we discuss how distributed argumentation technology can be used to advance risk management, regulatory compliance of distributed ledgers for financial securities, and dialogue techniques.