Renal function and cardiovascular risk markers in a remote Australian Aboriginal community

Background. Australian Aborigines living in remote areas have exceedingly high rates of renal failure together with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. To examine the basis of this association, we studied markers of renal function and cardiovascular (CV) risk in a coastal Aboriginal community in a remote area of the Northern Territory of Australia. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence rates in that community are 15 times the national non-Aboriginal rate and CV mortality rates in the region are increased 5-fold. Methods. A cross-sectional community survey was conducted. Markers of early renal disease examined included urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), serum creatinine concentration and calculated glomerular filtration rate (GFR). CV risk markers included blood pressure as well as measures of glycaemia, diabetes and serum lipids. Results. The study group included 237 people, 58% of the adult population of the community. The crude prevalence of microalbuminuria (urine ACR: 3.4-33.9 g/mol, 30-299 mg/g) was 31% and of overt albuminuria (urine ACR: greater than or equal to34 g/mol, greater than or equal to300 mg/g), 13%. The prevalence of overt albuminuria increased with age, but the prevalence of microalbuminuria was greatest in the 45-54 year age group. Microalbuminuria was associated with increasing body mass index, whereas overt albuminuria was associated with increasing glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and systolic blood pressure and a history of diabetes. The prevalence of elevated serum creatinine concentration (greater than or equal to120 mumol/l) was 10%. GFR (calculated using the MDRD equation) was <60 ml/min/1.73m(2) in 12% and 60-79 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in a further 36% of the study population. Although many people with albuminuria had well preserved GFRs, mean GFR was lower in people with higher levels of albuminuria. Conclusions. The high prevalence of markers of renal disease in this community was consistent with their high rates of ESRD. The distribution of microalbuminuria suggested a 'cohort effect', representing a group who will progress to overt albuminuria. The powerful association of renal disease markers with CV risk factors confirms a strong link between renal and CV disease in the early, asymptomatic stages of each. Thus, pathologic albuminuria, in part, might be a manifestation of the metabolic/haemodynamic syndrome and both conditions might arise out of a common menu of risk factors. Hence, a single agenda of primary and secondary intervention may benefit both.

Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Correcting for numerator/denominator bias when assessing changing inequalites in occupational class mortality, Australia 1981-2002

Objective Comparisons of the changing patterns of inequalities in occupational mortality provide one way to monitor the achievement of equity goals. However, previous comparisons have not corrected for numerator/denominator bias, which is a consequence of the different ways in which occupational details are recorded on death certificates and on census forms. The objective of this study was to measure the impact of this bias on mortality rates and ratios over time. Methods Using data provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, we examined the evidence for bias over the period 1981-2002, and used imputation methods to adjust for this bias. We compared unadjusted with imputed rates of mortality for manual/non-manual workers. Findings Unadjusted data indicate increasing inequality in the age-adjusted rates of mortality for manual/non-manual workers during 1981-2002, Imputed data suggest that there have been modest fluctuations in the ratios of mortality for manual/non-manual workers during this time, but with evidence that inequalities have increased only in recent years and are now at historic highs. Conclusion We found that imputation for missing data leads to changes in estimates of inequalities related to social class in mortality for some years but not for others. Occupational class comparisons should be imputed or otherwise adjusted for missing data on census or death certificates.

Is mortality from heart failure increasing in Australia? An analysis of official data on mortality for 1997-2003

Objective To assess whether trends in mortality from heart failure(HF) in Australia are due to a change in awareness of the condition or real changes in its epidemiology. Methods We carried out a retrospective analysis of official data on national mortality data between 1997 and 2003. A death was attributed to HF if the death certificate mentioned HF as either the underlying cause of death (UCD) or among the contributory factors. Findings From a total of 907 242 deaths, heart failure was coded as the UCD for 29 341 (3.2%) and was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate in 135 268 (14.9%). Between 1997 and 2003, there were decreases in the absolute numbers of deaths and in the age-specific and age-standardized mortality rates for HF either as UCD or mentioned anywhere for both sexes. HF was mentioned for 24.6% and 17.8% of deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and circulatory disease, respectively, and these proportions remained unchanged over the period of study. In addition, HF as UCD accounted for 8.3% of deaths attributed to circulatory disease and this did not change materially from 1997 to 2003. Conclusion The decline in mortality from HF measured as either number of deaths or rate probably reflects a real change in the epidemiology of HF. Population-based studies are required to determine accurately the contributions of changes in incidence, survival and demographic factors to the evolving epidemiology of HF.

Using cohort studies to estimate mortality among injecting drug users that is not attributable to AIDS

Background: Injecting drug use (IDU) and associated mortality appear to be increasing in many parts of the world. IDU is an important factor in HIV transmission. In estimating AIDS mortality attributable to IDU, it is important to take account of premature mortality rates from other causes to ensure that AIDS related mortality among injecting drug users (IDUs) is not overestimated. The current review provides estimates of the excess non-AIDS mortality among IDUs. Method: Searches were conducted with Medline, PsycINFO, and the Web of Science. The authors also searched reference lists of identified papers and an earlier literature review by English et al (1995). Crude. mortality rates (CMRs) were derived from data on the number of deaths, period of follow UP, and number of participants. In estimating the all-cause mortality, two rates were calculated: one that included all cohort studies identified in the search, and one that only included studies that reported on AIDS deaths in their cohort. This provided lower and upper mortality rates, respectively. Results: The current paper derived weighted mortality rates based upon cohort studies that included 179 885 participants, 1 219 422 person-years of observation, and 16 593 deaths. The weighted crude AIDS mortality rate from studies that reported AIDS deaths was approximately 0.78% per annum. The median estimated non-AIDS mortality rate was 1.08% per annum. Conclusions: Illicit drug users have a greatly increased risk of premature death and mortality due to AIDS forms a significant part of that increased risk; it is, however, only part of that risk. Future work needs to examine mortality rates among IDUs in developing countries, and collect data on the relation between HIV and increased mortality due to all causes among this group.

Estimating cause-specfic mortality from community- and facility-based data sources in the United Republic of Tanzania: options and implications for mortality burden estimates

Objective To compare mortality burden estimates based on direct measurement of levels and causes in communities with indirect estimates based on combining health facility cause-specific mortality structures with community measurement of mortality levels. Methods. Data from sentinel vital registration (SVR) with verbal autopsy (VA) were used to determine the cause-specific mortality burden at the community level in two areas of the United Republic of Tanzania. Proportional cause-specific mortality structures from health facilities were applied to counts of deaths obtained by SVR to produce modelled estimates. The burden was expressed in years of life lost. Findings. A total of 2884 deaths were recorded from health facilities and 2167 recorded from SVR/VAs. In the perinatal and neonatal age group cause-specific mortality rates were dominated by perinatal conditions and stillbirths in both the community and the facility data. The modelled estimates for chronic causes were very similar to those from SVR/VA. Acute febrile illnesses were coded more specifically in the facility data than in the VA. Injuries were more prevalent in the SVR/VA data than in that from the facilities. Conclusion. In this setting, improved International classification of diseases and health related problems, tenth revision (ICD-10) coding practices and applying facility-based cause structures to counts of deaths from communities, derived from SVR, appears to produce reasonable estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden in those aged 5 years and older determined directly from VA. For the perinatal and neonatal age group, VA appears to be required. Use of this approach in a nationally representative sample of facilities may produce reliable national estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden for leading causes of death in adults.

Reducing patient mortality in hospitals:the role of human resource management

Developing effective health care organizations is increasingly complex as a result of demographic changes, globalization, and developments in medicine. This study examines the potential contribution of organizational behavior theory and research by investigating the relationship between systems of human resource management (HRM) practices and effectiveness of patient care in hospitals. Relatively little research has been conducted to explore these issues in health care settings. In a sample of 52 hospitals in England, we examine the relationship between the HRM system and health care outcome. Specifically, we study the association between high performance HRM policies and practices and standardized patient mortality rates. The research reveals that, after controlling for prior mortality and other potentially confounding factors such as the ratio of doctors to patients, greater use of a complementary set of HRM practices has a statistically and practically significant relationship with patient mortality. The findings suggest that managers and policy makers should focus sharply on improving the functioning of relevant HR management systems in health care organizations as one important means by which to improve patient care. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Did mass privatisation really increase post-communist male mortality?

A recent article in the Lancet, by David Stuckler, Larry King and Martin McKee, investigated anew the fluctuations in adult male mortality rates that have come to characterise the so-called post-communist mortality crisis. Adopting a cross-country, time-series perspective the authors examined how the economic policy strategies of the 1990s impacted upon observed fluctuations in mortality. They conclude that the adoption of a strategy of rapid (mass) privatisation contributed to the adverse mortality trends. We subject that finding to closer scrutiny using the same data from which the Stuckler et al claim stems. We find that their claim that mass privatisation adversely affected male mortality trends in the post-Communist world does not stand up to closer examination. It is not supported empirically and is at odds with what we know about both transition in the post-communist world and about health trends over time in this region.

Mortality and financial crises

Drawing on a dataset covering more than 100 countries from 1970 to 2007, we estimate the impact of different types of financial crises on male and female mortality. We find that only currency crises have a direct short-term impact on mortality rates. We stylize our reading of the key empirical evidence of this paper in the following way: of three distinct types of financial crises, it is currency crises that have a direct short-term impact on mortality rates, and this is particularly the case for males.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes during experiments with early life stages of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, 2010

Several experiments have shown a decrease of growth and calcification of organisms at decreased pH levels. There is a growing interest to focus on early life stages that are believed to be more sensitive to environmental disturbances such as hypercapnia. Here, we present experimental data, acquired in a commercial hatchery, demonstrating that the growth of planktonic mussel (Mytilus edulis) larvae is significantly affected by a decrease of pH to a level expected for the end of the century. Even though there was no significant effect of a 0.25-0.34 pH unit decrease on hatching and mortality rates during the first 2 days of development nor during the following 13-day period prior to settlement, final shells were respectively 4.5±1.3 and 6.0±2.3% smaller at pHNBS~7.8 (pCO2~1100-1200 µatm) than at a control pHNBS of ~8.1 (pCO2~460-640 µatm). Moreover, a decrease of 12.0±5.4% of shell thickness was observed after 15d of development. More severe impacts were found with a decrease of ~0.5 pHNBS unit during the first 2 days of development which could be attributed to a decrease of calcification due to a slight undersaturation of seawater with respect to aragonite. Indeed, important effects on both hatching and D-veliger shell growth were found. Hatching rates were 24±4% lower while D-veliger shells were 12.7±0.9% smaller at pHNBS~7.6 (pCO2~1900 µatm) than at a control pHNBS of ~8.1 (pCO2~540 µatm). Although these results show that blue mussel larvae are still able to develop a shell in seawater undersaturated with respect to aragonite, the observed decreases of hatching rates and shell growth could lead to a significant decrease of the settlement success. As the environmental conditions considered in this study do not necessarily reflect the natural conditions experienced by this species at the time of spawning, future studies will need to consider the whole larval cycle (from fertilization to settlement) under environmentally relevant conditions in order to investigate the potential ecological and economical losses of a decrease of this species fitness in the field.

Morbidity and mortality following pelvic rami fractures in an elderly Newfoundland population

Introduction: Pelvic rami fractures in the elderly are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Despite our rapidly aging population there is a paucity of literature dealing with fractures of the pelvic rami in this age group. The purpose of this study is report mortality rates following these injuries in the Eastern region of Newfoundland. Additionally, we aim to describe and quantify the important resultant morbidity in this vulnerable elderly population . Methods: A retrospective chart review was performed of all the pelvic fractures in individuals over the age of 60 between 2000 and 2005 in the Eastern Health region of Newfoundland and Labrador. From these patients, only those with the radiographic parameters consistent with low energy pattern pelvic ring injuries were included. Excluded from the study were those with concurrent fractures of the femur. Survival data, comorbidities, injury characteristics, hospital stay, ambulatory status, and place of residence were recorded from the chart. A surrogate control group was formulated from Statistics Canada survival data for use as a survival comparison group. Results: There were 80 fractures of the pelvis identified in patients over 60 years old from 2000-2005. Of these, 43 met our inclusion/exclusion criteria and were used in our analysis. The one and five year mortalities of these patients were 16.3% (95% CI; 7.80% to 30.3%) and 58.1% (95% CI; 43.3% to 71.6%), respectively. These were both significantly different from the point estimates from our constructed age and gender matched control group from the Statistics Canada data of 6.58% (one year mortality) and 31.3% (five year mortality). Morbidity was quantified by change in ambulatory status (independent, walker/cane assisted, wheelchair) and change in residential independence (independent, assisted living, nursing home). Post fracture, 36% of patients permanently required increased ambulatory aids and 21% of patients required a permanent increase in everyday level of care. Conclusion: This study suggests that there may be significantly increased mortality and morbidity following low energy pattern pelvic rami fractures in an elderly population compared to age and gender matched controls. In contrast to previous studies describing these injuries, there is greater homogeneity in this population with respect to age and mechanism of injury. This study generates several important hypotheses for future research and in particular highlights the need for larger prospective studies to identify factors predicting the highest risk for poor outcomes in this population.

Outcomes and Predictors of Mortality in Neurosurgical Patients at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital

Background:

Knowing the scope of neurosurgical disease at Mbarara Hospital is critical for infrastructure planning, education and training. In this study, we aim to evaluate the neurosurgical outcomes and identify predictors of mortality in order to potentiate platforms for more effective interventions and inform future research efforts at Mbarara Hospital.

Methods:

This is retrospective chart review including patients of all ages with a neurosurgical disease or injury presenting to Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) between January 2012 to September 2015. Descriptive statistics were presented. A univariate analysis was used to obtain the odds ratios of mortality and 95% confidence intervals. Predictors of mortality were determined using multivariate logistic regression model.

Results:

A total of 1876 charts were reviewed. Of these, 1854 (had complete data and were?) were included in the analysis. The overall mortality rate was 12.75%; the mortality rates among all persons who underwent a neurosurgical procedure was 9.72%, and was 13.68% among those who did not undergo a neurosurgical procedure. Over 50% of patients were between 19 and 40 years old and the majority of were males (76.10%). The overall median length of stay was 5 days. Of all neurosurgical admissions, 87% were trauma patients. In comparison to mild head injury, closed head injury and intracranial hematoma patients were 5 (95% CI: 3.77, 8.26) and 2.5 times (95% CI: 1.64,3.98) more likely to die respectively. Procedure and diagnostic imaging were independent negative predictors of mortality (P <0.05). While age, ICU admission, admission GCS were positive predictors of mortality (P <0.05).

Conclusions:

The majority of hospital admissions were TBI patients, with RTIs being the most common mechanism of injury. Age, ICU admission, admission GCS, diagnostic imaging and undergoing surgery were independent predictors of mortality. Going forward, further exploration of patient characteristics is necessary to fully describe mortality outcomes and implement resource appropriate interventions that ultimately improve morbidity and mortality.

The impact of widowhood on Irish mortality due to suicide and accidents

The impact of widowhood on suicide and accident mortality in Ireland was investigated using Poisson regression analysis applied to routine data relating to all 10 561 suicidal and accidental deaths of married or widowed persons aged at least 35 years in Ireland during 1986–2005. Mortality rates were almost always higher among the widowed and often by a 2-fold, statistically significant difference. The excess mortality was equivalent to 2083 or 57.6% of all suicidal or accidental deaths of widowed persons in 1986–2005. Routine contact with recently widowed persons by public health professionals may be warranted with a view to reducing their excess mortality.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and severe tissue damage in Atlantic cod larvae under increasing ocean acidification, 2012

Ocean acidification, caused by increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO2, is one of the most critical anthropogenicthreats to marine life. Changes in seawater carbonate chemistry have the potential to disturb calcification, acid-base regulation, blood circulation and respiration, as well as the nervous system of marine organisms, leading to long-term effects such as reduced growth rates and reproduction. In teleost fishes, early life-history stages are particularly vulnerable as they lack specialized internal pH regulatory mechanisms. So far, impacts of relevant CO2concentrations on larval fish have been found in behaviour and otolith size, mainly in tropical, non-commercial species. Here we show detrimental effects of ocean acidification on the development of a mass-spawning fish species of high commercial importance. We reared Atlantic cod larvae at three levels of CO2, (1) present day, (2) end of next century and (3) an extreme, coastal upwelling scenario, in a long-term ( 2.5 1/2 months) mesocosm experiment. Exposure to CO2 resulted in severe to lethal tissue damage in many internal organs, with the degree of damage increasing with CO2 concentration. As larval survival is the bottleneck to recruitment, ocean acidification has the potential to act as an additional source of natural mortality, affecting populations of already exploited fish stocks.

Quantifying Selection Bias from Birth History Estimates of Child Mortality

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08