Biased representation of disturbance rates in the roadside sampling frame in boreal forests: implications for monitoring design

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is the principal source of data to inform researchers about the status of and trend for boreal forest birds. Unfortunately, little BBS coverage is available in the boreal forest, where increasing concern over the status of species breeding there has increased interest in northward expansion of the BBS. However, high disturbance rates in the boreal forest may complicate roadside monitoring. If the roadside sampling frame does not capture variation in disturbance rates because of either road placement or the use of roads for resource extraction, biased trend estimates might result. In this study, we examined roadside bias in the proportional representation of habitat disturbance via spatial data on forest “loss,” forest fires, and anthropogenic disturbance. In each of 455 BBS routes, the area disturbed within multiple buffers away from the road was calculated and compared against the area disturbed in degree blocks and BBS strata. We found a nonlinear relationship between bias and distance from the road, suggesting forest loss and forest fires were underrepresented below 75 and 100 m, respectively. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance was overrepresented at distances below 500 m and underrepresented thereafter. After accounting for distance from road, BBS routes were reasonably representative of the degree blocks they were within, with only a few strata showing biased representation. In general, anthropogenic disturbance is overrepresented in southern strata, and forest fires are underrepresented in almost all strata. Similar biases exist when comparing the entire road network and the subset sampled by BBS routes against the amount of disturbance within BBS strata; however, the magnitude of biases differed. Based on our results, we recommend that spatial stratification and rotating panel designs be used to spread limited BBS and off-road sampling effort in an unbiased fashion and that new BBS routes be established where sufficient road coverage exists.

Hypotensive effects of hawthorn for patients with diabetes taking prescription drugs: a randomised controlled trial

Background Hawthorn (Crataegus laevigata) leaves, flowers and berries are used by herbal practitioners in the UK to treat hypertension in conjunction with prescribed drugs. Small-scale human studies support this approach. Aim To investigate the effects of hawthorn for hypertension in patients with type 2 diabetes taking prescribed drugs. Design of study Randomised controlled trial. Setting General practices in Reading, UK. Method Patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 79) were randomised to daily 1200 mg hawthorn extract (n = 39) or placebo (n = 40) for 16 weeks. At baseline and outcome a wellbeing questionnaire was completed and blood pressure and fasting blood samples taken. A food frequency questionnaire estimated nutrient intake. Results Hypotensive drugs were used by 71% of the study population with a mean intake of 4.4 hypoglycaemic and/or hypotensive drugs. Fat intake was lower and sugar intake higher than recommendations, and low micronutrient intake was prevalent. There was a significant group difference in mean diastolic blood pressure reductions (P = 0.035): the hawthorn group showed greater reductions (baseline: 85.6 mmHg, 95% confidence interval [Cl] = 83.3 to 87.8; outcome: 83.0 mmHg, 95% Cl = 80.5 to 85.7) than the placebo group (baseline: 84.5 mmHg, 95% Cl = 82 to 87; outcome: 85.0 mmHg, 95% Cl = 82.2 to 87.8). There was no group difference in systolic blood pressure reduction from baseline (3.6 and 0.8 mmHg for hawthorn and placebo groups, respectively; P = 0.329). Although mean fat intake met current recommendations, mean sugar intake was higher and there were indications of potential multiple micronutrient deficiencies. No herb-drug interaction was found and minor health complaints were reduced from baseline in both groups. Conclusions This is the first randomised controlled trial to demonstrate a hypotensive effect of hawthorn in patients with diabetes taking medication.

A novel Bayesian approach to drug design with simple and complex enzymes: Use with lens aldehyde dehydrogenase and the glyoxalase pathway

Purpose: Acquiring details of kinetic parameters of enzymes is crucial to biochemical understanding, drug development, and clinical diagnosis in ocular diseases. The correct design of an experiment is critical to collecting data suitable for analysis, modelling and deriving the correct information. As classical design methods are not targeted to the more complex kinetics being frequently studied, attention is needed to estimate parameters of such models with low variance. Methods: We have developed Bayesian utility functions to minimise kinetic parameter variance involving differentiation of model expressions and matrix inversion. These have been applied to the simple kinetics of the enzymes in the glyoxalase pathway (of importance in posttranslational modification of proteins in cataract), and the complex kinetics of lens aldehyde dehydrogenase (also of relevance to cataract). Results: Our successful application of Bayesian statistics has allowed us to identify a set of rules for designing optimum kinetic experiments iteratively. Most importantly, the distribution of points in the range is critical; it is not simply a matter of even or multiple increases. At least 60 % must be below the KM (or plural if more than one dissociation constant) and 40% above. This choice halves the variance found using a simple even spread across the range.With both the glyoxalase system and lens aldehyde dehydrogenase we have significantly improved the variance of kinetic parameter estimation while reducing the number and costs of experiments. Conclusions: We have developed an optimal and iterative method for selecting features of design such as substrate range, number of measurements and choice of intermediate points. Our novel approach minimises parameter error and costs, and maximises experimental efficiency. It is applicable to many areas of ocular drug design, including receptor-ligand binding and immunoglobulin binding, and should be an important tool in ocular drug discovery.

Design, synthesis and computational modelling of aromatic tweezer-molecules as models for chain-folding polymer blends

Novel 'tweezer-type' complexes that exploit the interactions between pi-electron-rich pyrenyl groups and pi-electron deficient diimide units have been designed and synthesised. The component molecules leading to complex formation were accessed readily from commercially available starting materials through short and efficient syntheses. Analysis of the resulting complexes, using the visible charge-transfer band, revealed association constants that increased sequentially from 130 to 11,000 M-1 as increasing numbers of pi-pi-stacking interactions were introduced into the systems. Computational modelling was used to analyse the structures of these complexes, revealing low-energy chain-folded conformations for both components, which readily allow close, multiple pi-pi-stacking and hydrogen bonding to be achieved. In this paper, we give details of our initial studies of these complexes and outline how their behaviour could provide a basis for designing self-healing polymer blends for use in adaptive coating systems. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring the role of design quality in the Building Schools for the Future programme

The Building Schools for the Future (BSF) programme represents the biggest single UK government investment in school buildings for more than 50 years. A key goal for BSF is to ensure that pupils learn in 21st-century facilities that are designed or redesigned to allow for educational transformation. This represents a major challenge to those involved in the design of schools. The paper explores the conceptualizations of design quality within the BSF programme. It draws on content analysis of influential reports on design published between 2000 and 2007 and interviews with key actors in the provision of schools. The means by which design quality has become defined and given importance within the programme through official documents is described and compared with the multiple understandings of design quality among key stakeholders. The findings portray the many challenges that practitioners face when operationalizing design quality in practice. The paper concludes with reflections on the inconsistencies between how design quality has been appropriated in the BSF programme and how it is interpreted and adopted in practice.

Hypotensive effects of hawthorn for patients with diabetes taking prescription drugs: a randomised controlled trial

Background: Hawthorn (Crataegus laevigata) leaves, flowers and berries are used by herbal practitioners in the UK to treat hypertension in conjunction with prescribed drugs. Small-scale human studies support this approach. Aim: To investigate the effects of hawthorn for hypertension in patients with type 2 diabetes taking prescribed drugs. Design of study: Randomised controlled trial. Setting: General practices in Reading, UK. Method: Patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 79) were randomised to daily 1200 mg hawthorn extract (n = 39) or placebo (n = 40) for 16 weeks. At baseline and outcome a wellbeing questionnaire was completed and blood pressure and fasting blood samples taken. A food frequency questionnaire estimated nutrient intake. Results: Hypotensive drugs were used by 71% of the study population with a mean intake of 4.4 hypoglycaemic and/or hypotensive drugs. Fat intake was lower and sugar intake higher than recommendations, and low micronutrient intake was prevalent. There was a significant group difference in mean diastolic blood pressure reductions (P = 0.035): the hawthorn group showed greater reductions (baseline: 85.6 mmHg, 95% confidence interval [Cl] = 83.3 to 87.8; outcome: 83.0 mmHg, 95% Cl = 80.5 to 85.7) than the placebo group (baseline: 84.5 mmHg, 95% Cl = 82 to 87; outcome: 85.0 mmHg, 95% Cl = 82.2 to 87.8). There was no group difference in systolic blood pressure reduction from baseline (3.6 and 0.8 mmHg for hawthorn and placebo groups, respectively; P = 0.329). Although mean fat intake met current recommendations, mean sugar intake was higher and there were indications of potential multiple micronutrient deficiencies. No herb-drug interaction was found and minor health complaints were reduced from baseline in both groups. Conclusions: This is the first randomised controlled trial to demonstrate a hypotensive effect of hawthorn in patients with diabetes taking medication.

Expressing medicine side effects: assessing the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm, and the provision of baseline risk information

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of absolute risk, relative risk, and number needed to harm formats for medicine side effects, with and without the provision of baseline risk information. Methods: A two factor, risk increase format (relative, absolute and NNH) x baseline (present/absent) between participants design was used. A sample of 268 women was given a scenario about increase in side effect risk with third generation oral contraceptives, and were required to answer written questions to assess their understanding, satisfaction, and likelihood of continuing to take the drug. Results: Provision of baseline information significantly improved risk estimates and increased satisfaction, although the estimates were still considerably higher than the actual risk. No differences between presentation formats were observed when baseline information was presented. Without baseline information, absolute risk led to the most accurate performance. Conclusion: The findings support the importance of informing people about baseline level of risk when describing risk increases. In contrast, they offer no support for using number needed to harm. Practice implications: Health professionals should provide baseline risk information when presenting information about risk increases or decreases. More research is needed before numbers needed to harm (or treat) should be given to members of the general populations. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Search space pruning and global optimization of multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres

This paper deals with the design of optimal multiple gravity assist trajectories with deep space manoeuvres. A pruning method which considers the sequential nature of the problem is presented. The method locates feasible vectors using local optimization and applies a clustering algorithm to find reduced bounding boxes which can be used in a subsequent optimization step. Since multiple local minima remain within the pruned search space, the use of a global optimization method, such as Differential Evolution, is suggested for finding solutions which are likely to be close to the global optimum. Two case studies are presented.

Empirical impact of cache effects for vision system design

Computer vision applications generally split their problem into multiple simpler tasks. Likewise research often combines algorithms into systems for evaluation purposes. Frameworks for modular vision provide interfaces and mechanisms for algorithm combination and network transparency. However, these don’t provide interfaces efficiently utilising the slow memory in modern PCs. We investigate quantitatively how system performance varies with different patterns of memory usage by the framework for an example vision system.

Multivariate analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of GENTLE/S robot-mediated stroke therapy

Background: Robot-mediated therapies offer entirely new approaches to neurorehabilitation. In this paper we present the results obtained from trialling the GENTLE/S neurorehabilitation system assessed using the upper limb section of the Fugl-Meyer ( FM) outcome measure. Methods: We demonstrate the design of our clinical trial and its results analysed using a novel statistical approach based on a multivariate analytical model. This paper provides the rational for using multivariate models in robot-mediated clinical trials and draws conclusions from the clinical data gathered during the GENTLE/S study. Results: The FM outcome measures recorded during the baseline ( 8 sessions), robot-mediated therapy ( 9 sessions) and sling-suspension ( 9 sessions) was analysed using a multiple regression model. The results indicate positive but modest recovery trends favouring both interventions used in GENTLE/S clinical trial. The modest recovery shown occurred at a time late after stroke when changes are not clinically anticipated. Conclusion: This study has applied a new method for analysing clinical data obtained from rehabilitation robotics studies. While the data obtained during the clinical trial is of multivariate nature, having multipoint and progressive nature, the multiple regression model used showed great potential for drawing conclusions from this study. An important conclusion to draw from this paper is that this study has shown that the intervention and control phase both caused changes over a period of 9 sessions in comparison to the baseline. This might indicate that use of new challenging and motivational therapies can influence the outcome of therapies at a point when clinical changes are not expected. Further work is required to investigate the effects arising from early intervention, longer exposure and intensity of the therapies. Finally, more function-oriented robot-mediated therapies or sling-suspension therapies are needed to clarify the effects resulting from each intervention for stroke recovery.

Search space pruning and global optimisation of Multiple Gravity Assist spacecraft trajectories

We introduce and describe the Multiple Gravity Assist problem, a global optimisation problem that is of great interest in the design of spacecraft and their trajectories. We discuss its formalization and we show, in one particular problem instance, the performance of selected state of the art heuristic global optimisation algorithms. A deterministic search space pruning algorithm is then developed and its polynomial time and space complexity derived. The algorithm is shown to achieve search space reductions of greater than six orders of magnitude, thus reducing significantly the complexity of the subsequent optimisation.

Refinement of the Clinical Scenario Evaluation Framework for Assessment of Competing Development Strategies with an Application to Multiple Sclerosis

When competing strategies for development programs, clinical trial designs, or data analysis methods exist, the alternatives need to be evaluated in a systematic way to facilitate informed decision making. Here we describe a refinement of the recently proposed clinical scenario evaluation framework for the assessment of competing strategies. The refinement is achieved by subdividing key elements previously proposed into new categories, distinguishing between quantities that can be estimated from preexisting data and those that cannot and between aspects under the control of the decision maker from those that are determined by external constraints. The refined framework is illustrated by an application to a design project for an adaptive seamless design for a clinical trial in progressive multiple sclerosis.

Adiposity, insulin and lipid metabolism in post-menopausal women

OBJECTIVE: To investigate relationships between body fat and its distribution and carbohydrate and lipid tolerance using statistical comparisons in post-menopausal women. DESIGN: Sequential meal, postprandial study (600 min) which included a mixed standard breakfast (30 g fat) and lunch (44 g fat) given at 0 and 270 min, respectively, after an overnight fast. SUBJECTS: Twenty-eight post-menopausal women with a diverse range of body weight (body mass index (BMI), mean 27.2, range 20.5-38.8 kg/m2) and abdominal fat deposition (waist, mean 86.4, range 63.5-124.0 cm). Women with BMI <18 or >37 kg/m2, age>80 y and taking hormone replacement therapy (HRT) were excluded. MEASUREMENTS: Anthropometric measurements were performed to assess total and regional fat deposits. The concentrations of plasma total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triacylglycerol (TAG), glucose, insulin (ins), non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) and apolipoprotein (apo) B-48 were analysed in plasma collected at baseline (fasted state) and at 13 postprandial time points for a 600 min period. RESULTS: Insulin concentrations in the fasted and fed state were significantly correlated with all measures of adiposity (BMI, waist, waist-hip ratio (W/H), waist-height ratio (W/Ht) and sum of skinfold thickness (SSk)). After controlling for BMI, waist remained significantly and positively associated with fasted insulin (r=0.559) with waist contributing 53% to the variability after multiple regression analysis. After controlling for waist, BMI remained significantly correlated with postprandial (IAUC) insulin (r=0.535) contributing 66% of the variability of this measurement. No association was found between any measures of adiposity and glucose concentrations, although insulin concentration in relation to glucose concentration (glucose-insulin ratio) was significantly negatively correlated with all measures of adiposity. A significant positive correlation was found between fasted TAG and BMI (r=0.416), waist (r=0.393) and Ssk (r=0.457) and postprandial (AUC) TAG with BMI (r=0.385) and Ssk (r=0.406). A significantly higher postprandial apolipoprotein (apo) B-48 response was observed in those women with high BMI (>27 kg/m2). Fasting levels of NEFA were significantly and positively correlated with all measures of adiposity (except W/H). No association was found between cholesterol containing particles and any measure of adiposity. CONCLUSION: Hyperinsulinaemia associated with increasing body fat and central fat distribution is associated with normal glucose but not TAG or NEFA concentrations in postmenopausal women.

3D scanning by multiple fan beam X-ray sources and sensors

*** Purpose – Computer tomography (CT) for 3D reconstruction entails a huge number of coplanar fan-beam projections for each of a large number of 2D slice images, and excessive radiation intensities and dosages. For some applications its rate of throughput is also inadequate. A technique for overcoming these limitations is outlined. *** Design methodology/approach – A novel method to reconstruct 3D surface models of objects is presented, using, typically, ten, 2D projective images. These images are generated by relative motion between this set of objects and a set of ten fanbeam X-ray sources and sensors, with their viewing axes suitably distributed in 2D angular space. *** Findings – The method entails a radiation dosage several orders of magnitude lower than CT, and requires far less computational power. Experimental results are given to illustrate the capability of the technique *** Practical implications – The substantially lower cost of the method and, more particularly, its dramatically lower irradiation make it relevant to many applications precluded by current techniques *** Originality/value – The method can be used in many applications such as aircraft hold-luggage screening, 3D industrial modelling and measurement, and it should also have important applications to medical diagnosis and surgery.

The design of probiotic studies to substantiate health claims

The EC Regulation No. 1924/2006 on Nutrition and Health claims made on foods has generated considerable debate and concern among scientists and industry. At the time of writing, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has not approved any probiotic claims despite numerous human trials and meta-analyses showing evidence of beneficial effects. On 29th and 30th September 2010, ten independent, academic scientists with a documented record in probiotic research, met to discuss designs for future probiotic studies to demonstrate health benefits for gut and immune function. The expert panel recommended the following: (i) always formulate a precise and concrete hypothesis, and appropriate goals and parameters before starting a trial; (ii) ensure trials have sufficient sample size, such that they are adequately powered to reach statistically significant conclusions, either supporting or rejecting the a priori hypothesis, taking into account adjustment for multiple testing (this might necessitate more than one recruitment site); (iii) ensure trials are of appropriate duration; (iv) focus on a single, primary objective and only evaluate multiple parameters when they are hypothesis-driven. The panel agreed that there was an urgent need to better define which biomarkers are considered valuable for substantiation of a health claim. As a first step, the panel welcomed the publication on the day of the meeting of EFSA's draft guidance document on immune and gut health, although it came too late for study designs and dossiers to be adjusted accordingly. New validated biomarkers need to be identified in order to properly determine the range of physiological functions influenced by probiotics. In addition, validated biomarkers reflecting risk factors for disease, are required for article 14 claims (EC Regulation No. 1924/2006). Finally, the panel concluded that consensus among scientists is needed to decide appropriate clinical endpoints for trials.