Kinetic multi-layer model of gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP): linking condensation, evaporation and chemical reactions of organics, oxidants and water

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KM-GAP is based on the PRA model framework (Pöschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modelled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmo- spheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270 K is close to unity. Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for eðcient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.

Performance analysis of data transmissions in MPLS and non-MPLS networks

Basic Network transactions specifies that datagram from source to destination is routed through numerous routers and paths depending on the available free and uncongested paths which results in the transmission route being too long, thus incurring greater delay, jitter, congestion and reduced throughput. One of the major problems of packet switched networks is the cell delay variation or jitter. This cell delay variation is due to the queuing delay depending on the applied loading conditions. The effect of delay, jitter accumulation due to the number of nodes along transmission routes and dropped packets adds further complexity to multimedia traffic because there is no guarantee that each traffic stream will be delivered according to its own jitter constraints therefore there is the need to analyze the effects of jitter. IP routers enable a single path for the transmission of all packets. On the other hand, Multi-Protocol Label Switching (MPLS) allows separation of packet forwarding and routing characteristics to enable packets to use the appropriate routes and also optimize and control the behavior of transmission paths. Thus correcting some of the shortfalls associated with IP routing. Therefore MPLS has been utilized in the analysis for effective transmission through the various networks. This paper analyzes the effect of delay, congestion, interference, jitter and packet loss in the transmission of signals from source to destination. In effect the impact of link failures, repair paths in the various physical topologies namely bus, star, mesh and hybrid topologies are all analyzed based on standard network conditions.

Improvement of link failure restoration utilising multi-protocol label switching (MPLS) as a means to maintain quality of service (QOS)

This paper proposes a practical approach to the enhancement of Quality of Service (QoS) routing by means of providing alternative or repair paths in the event of a breakage of a working path. The proposed scheme guarantees that every Protected Node (PN) is connected to a multi-repair path such that no further failure or breakage of single or double repair paths can cause any simultaneous loss of connectivity between an ingress node and an egress node. Links to be protected in an MPLS network are predefined and a Label Switched path (LSP) request involves the establishment of a working path. The use of multi-protection paths permits the formation of numerous protection paths allowing greater flexibility. Our analysis examined several methods including single, double and multi-repair routes and the prioritization of signals along the protected paths to improve the Quality of Service (QoS), throughput, reduce the cost of the protection path placement, delay, congestion and collision. Results obtained indicated that creating multi-repair paths and prioritizing packets reduces delay and increases throughput in which case the delays at the ingress/egress LSPs were low compared to when the signals had not been classified. Therefore the proposed scheme provided a means to improve the QoS in path restoration in MPLS using available network resources. Prioritizing the packets in the data plane has revealed that the amount of traffic transmitted using a medium and low priority Label Switch Paths (LSPs) does not have any impact on the explicit rate of the high priority LSP in which case the problem of a knock-on effect is eliminated.

Reduction of vestigial sideband effects due to multipath transmission in terrestrial broadcast television

In terrestrial television transmission multiple paths of various lengths can occur between the transmitter and the receiver. Such paths occur because of reflections from objects outside the direct transmission path. The multipath signals arriving at the receiver are all detected along with the intended signal causing time displaced replicas called 'ghosts' to appear on the television picture. With an increasing number of people living within built up areas, ghosting is becoming commonplace and therefore deghosting is becoming increasingly important. This thesis uses a deterministic time domain approach to deghosting, resulting in a simple solution to the problem of removing ghosts. A new video detector is presented which reduces the synchronous detector local oscillator phase error, caused by any practical size of ghost, to a lower level than has ever previously been achieved. From the new detector, dispersion of the video signal is minimised and a known closed-form time domain description of the individual ghost components within the detected video is subsequently obtained. Developed from mathematical descriptions of the detected video, a new specific deghoster filter structure is presented which is capable of removing both inphase (I) and also the phase quadrature (Q) induced ghost signals derived from the VSB operation. The new deghoster filter requires much less hardware than any previous deghoster which is capable of removing both I and Q ghost components. A new channel identification algorithm was also required and written which is based upon simple correlation techniques to find the delay and complex amplitude characteristics of individual ghosts. The result of the channel identification is then passed to the new I and Q deghoster filter for ghost cancellation. Generated from the research work performed for this thesis, five papers have been published. D

Is there a place for property in the multi-asset portfolio?

The case for property has typically rested on the application of modern portfolio theory (MPT), in that property has been shown to offer increased diversification benefits within a multi asset portfolio without hurting portfolio returns especially for lower risk portfolios. However this view is based upon the use of historic, usually appraisal based, data for property. Recent research suggests strongly that such data significantly underestimates the risk characteristics of property, because appraisals explicitly or implicitly smooth out much of the real volatility in property returns. This paper examines the portfolio diversification effects of including property in a multi-asset portfolio, using UK appraisal based (smoothed) data and several derived de-smoothed series. Having considered the effects of de-smoothing, we then consider the inclusion of a further low risk asset (cash) in order to investigate further whether property's place in a low risk portfolio is maintained. The conclusions of this study are that the previous supposed benefits of including property have been overstated. Although property may still have a place in a 'balanced' institutional portfolio, the case for property needs to be reassessed and not be based simplistically on the application of MPT.

Kinetic multi-layer model of gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP): linking condensation, evaporation and chemical reactions of organics, oxidants and water

We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KMGAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KMGAP is based on the PRA model framework (P¨oschl-Rudich- Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modeled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system and the computational constraints, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmospheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270K is close to unity (Winkler et al., 2006). Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for efficient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.

A novel satellite mission concept for upper air water vapour, aerosol and cloud observations using integrated path differential absorption LiDAR limb sounding

We propose a new satellite mission to deliver high quality measurements of upper air water vapour. The concept centres around a LiDAR in limb sounding by occultation geometry, designed to operate as a very long path system for differential absorption measurements. We present a preliminary performance analysis with a system sized to send 75 mJ pulses at 25 Hz at four wavelengths close to 935 nm, to up to 5 microsatellites in a counter-rotating orbit, carrying retroreflectors characterized by a reflected beam divergence of roughly twice the emitted laser beam divergence of 15 µrad. This provides water vapour profiles with a vertical sampling of 110 m; preliminary calculations suggest that the system could detect concentrations of less than 5 ppm. A secondary payload of a fairly conventional medium resolution multispectral radiometer allows wide-swath cloud and aerosol imaging. The total weight and power of the system are estimated at 3 tons and 2,700 W respectively. This novel concept presents significant challenges, including the performance of the lasers in space, the tracking between the main spacecraft and the retroreflectors, the refractive effects of turbulence, and the design of the telescopes to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio for the high precision measurements. The mission concept was conceived at the Alpbach Summer School 2010.

In vitro evaluation of single- and multi-strain probiotics: inter-species inhibition between probiotic strains, and inhibition of pathogens

Many studies comparing the effects of single- and multi-strain probiotics on pathogen inhibition compare treatments with different concentrations. They also do not examine the possibility of inhibition between probiotic strains with a mixture. We tested the ability of 14 single-species probiotics to inhibit each other using a cross-streak assay, and agar spot test. We then tested the ability of 15 single-species probiotics and 5 probiotic mixtures to inhibit C. difficile, E. coli and S. Typhimurium, using the agar spot test. Testing was done with mixtures created in two ways: one group contained component species incubated together, the other group of mixtures was made using component species which had been incubated separately, equalised to equal optical density, and then mixed in equal volumes. Inhibition was observed for all combinations of probiotics, suggesting that when used as such there may be inhibition between probiotics, potentially reducing efficacy of the mixture. Significant inter-species variation was seen against each pathogen. When single species were tested against mixtures, the multi-species preparations displayed significantly (p<0.05 or less) greater inhibition of pathogens in 12 out of 24 cases. Despite evidence that probiotic species will inhibit each other when incubated together in vitro, in many cases a probiotic mixture was more effective at inhibiting pathogens than its component species when tested at approximately equal concentrations of biomass. This suggests that using a probiotic mixture might be more effective at reducing gastrointestinal infections, and that creating a mixture using species with different effects against different pathogens may have a broader spectrum of action that a single provided by a single strain.

Effects of Thomson-scattering geometry on white-light imaging of an interplanetary shock: synthetic observations from forward magnetohydrodynamic modelling

Stereoscopic white-light imaging of a large portion of the inner heliosphere has been used to track interplanetary coronal mass ejections. At large elongations from the Sun, the white-light brightness depends on both the local electron density and the efficiency of the Thomson-scattering process. To quantify the effects of the Thomson-scattering geometry, we study an interplanetary shock using forward magnetohydrodynamic simulation and synthetic white-light imaging. Identifiable as an inclined streak of enhanced brightness in a time–elongation map, the travelling shock can be readily imaged by an observer located within a wide range of longitudes in the ecliptic. Different parts of the shock front contribute to the imaged brightness pattern viewed by observers at different longitudes. Moreover, even for an observer located at a fixed longitude, a different part of the shock front will contribute to the imaged brightness at any given time. The observed brightness within each imaging pixel results from a weighted integral along its corresponding ray-path. It is possible to infer the longitudinal location of the shock from the brightness pattern in an optical sky map, based on the east–west asymmetry in its brightness and degree of polarisation. Therefore, measurement of the interplanetary polarised brightness could significantly reduce the ambiguity in performing three-dimensional reconstruction of local electron density from white-light imaging.

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

Correction of atmospheric delay effects in radar interferometry using a nested mesoscale atmospheric model

The temporal variability of the atmosphere through which radio waves pass in the technique of differential radar interferometry can seriously limit the accuracy with which the method can measure surface motion. A forward, nested mesoscale model of the atmosphere can be used to simulate the variable water content along the radar path and the resultant phase delays. Using this approach we demonstrate how to correct an interferogram of Mount Etna in Sicily associated with an eruption in 2004-5. The regional mesoscale model (Unified Model) used to simulate the atmosphere at higher resolutions consists of four nested domains increasing in resolution (12, 4, 1, 0.3 km), sitting within the analysis version of a global numerical model that is used to initiate the simulation. Using the high resolution 3D model output we compute the surface pressure, temperature and the water vapour, liquid and solid water contents, enabling the dominant hydrostatic and wet delays to be calculated at specific times corresponding to the acquisition of the radar data. We can also simulate the second-order delay effects due to liquid water and ice.

A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change

This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here – which gives a 50% chance of remaining below a 2oC temperature rise target - reduces impacts by 20-65% by 2100 relative to a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway (A1B) which reaches 4oC, and can delay impacts by several decades. Effects vary between sector and region, and there are few noticeable effects of mitigation policy by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and therefore uncertain.

Identifying time lags in the restoration of grassland butterfly communities: a multi-site assessment

Although grasslands are crucial habitats for European butterflies, large-scale declines in quality and area have devastated many species. Grassland restoration can contribute to the recovery of butterfly populations, although there is a paucity of information on the long-term effects of management. Using eight UK data sets (9-21 years), we investigate changes in restoration success for (1) arable reversion sites, were grassland was established on bare ground using seed mixtures, and (2) grassland enhancement sites, where degraded grasslands are restored by scrub removal followed by the re-instigation of cutting/grazing. We also assessed the importance of individual butterfly traits and ecological characteristics in determining colonisation times. Consistent increases in restoration success over time were seen for arable reversion sites, with the most rapid rates of increase in restoration success seen over the first 10 years. For grasslands enhancement there were no consistent increases in restoration success over time. Butterfly colonisation times were fastest for species with widespread host plants or where host plants established well during restoration. Low mobility butterfly species took longer to colonise. We show that arable reversion is an effective tool for the management of butterfly communities. We suggest that as restoration takes time to achieve, its use as a mitigation tool against future environmental change (i.e. by decreasing isolation in fragmented landscapes) needs to take into account such time lags.

Endogenous cholinergic tone modulates spontaneous network level neuronal activity in primary cortical cultures grown on multi-electrode arrays

Background Cortical cultures grown long-term on multi-electrode arrays (MEAs) are frequently and extensively used as models of cortical networks in studies of neuronal firing activity, neuropharmacology, toxicology and mechanisms underlying synaptic plasticity. However, in contrast to the predominantly asynchronous neuronal firing activity exhibited by intact cortex, electrophysiological activity of mature cortical cultures is dominated by spontaneous epileptiform-like global burst events which hinders their effective use in network-level studies, particularly for neurally-controlled animat (‘artificial animal’) applications. Thus, the identification of culture features that can be exploited to produce neuronal activity more representative of that seen in vivo could increase the utility and relevance of studies that employ these preparations. Acetylcholine has a recognised neuromodulatory role affecting excitability, rhythmicity, plasticity and information flow in vivo although its endogenous production by cortical cultures and subsequent functional influence upon neuronal excitability remains unknown. Results Consequently, using MEA electrophysiological recording supported by immunohistochemical and RT-qPCR methods, we demonstrate for the first time, the presence of intrinsic cholinergic neurons and significant, endogenous cholinergic tone in cortical cultures with a characterisation of the muscarinic and nicotinic components that underlie modulation of spontaneous neuronal activity. We found that tonic muscarinic ACh receptor (mAChR) activation affects global excitability and burst event regularity in a culture age-dependent manner whilst, in contrast, tonic nicotinic ACh receptor (nAChR) activation can modulate burst duration and the proportion of spikes occurring within bursts in a spatio-temporal fashion. Conclusions We suggest that the presence of significant endogenous cholinergic tone in cortical cultures and the comparability of its modulatory effects to those seen in intact brain tissues support emerging, exploitable commonalities between in vivo and in vitro preparations. We conclude that experimental manipulation of endogenous cholinergic tone could offer a novel opportunity to improve the use of cortical cultures for studies of network-level mechanisms in a manner that remains largely consistent with its functional role.

Plant-symbiotic fungi as chemical engineers: multi-genome analysis of the Clavicipitaceae reveals dynamics of alkaloid Loci

The fungal family Clavicipitaceae includes plant symbionts and parasites that produce several psychoactive and bioprotective alkaloids. The family includes grass symbionts in the epichloae clade (Epichloë and Neotyphodium species), which are extraordinarily diverse both in their host interactions and in their alkaloid profiles. Epichloae produce alkaloids of four distinct classes, all of which deter insects, and some—including the infamous ergot alkaloids—have potent effects on mammals. The exceptional chemotypic diversity of the epichloae may relate to their broad range of host interactions, whereby some are pathogenic and contagious, others are mutualistic and vertically transmitted (seed-borne), and still others vary in pathogenic or mutualistic behavior. We profiled the alkaloids and sequenced the genomes of 10 epichloae, three ergot fungi (Claviceps species), a morning-glory symbiont (Periglandula ipomoeae), and a bamboo pathogen (Aciculosporium take), and compared the gene clusters for four classes of alkaloids. Results indicated a strong tendency for alkaloid loci to have conserved cores that specify the skeleton structures and peripheral genes that determine chemical variations that are known to affect their pharmacological specificities. Generally, gene locations in cluster peripheries positioned them near to transposon-derived, AT-rich repeat blocks, which were probably involved in gene losses, duplications, and neofunctionalizations. The alkaloid loci in the epichloae had unusual structures riddled with large, complex, and dynamic repeat blocks. This feature was not reflective of overall differences in repeat contents in the genomes, nor was it characteristic of most other specialized metabolism loci. The organization and dynamics of alkaloid loci and abundant repeat blocks in the epichloae suggested that these fungi are under selection for alkaloid diversification. We suggest that such selection is related to the variable life histories of the epichloae, their protective roles as symbionts, and their associations with the highly speciose and ecologically diverse cool-season grasses.