A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.

Decision making techniques with similarity measures and OWA operators

We analyse the use of the ordered weighted average (OWA) in decision-making giving special attention to business and economic decision-making problems. We present several aggregation techniques that are very useful for decision-making such as the Hamming distance, the adequacy coefficient and the index of maximum and minimum level. We suggest a new approach by using immediate weights, that is, by using the weighted average and the OWA operator in the same formulation. We further generalize them by using generalized and quasi-arithmetic means. We also analyse the applicability of the OWA operator in business and economics and we see that we can use it instead of the weighted average. We end the paper with an application in a business multi-person decision-making problem regarding production management

Logistiikkayrityksen sijoittuminen Venäjälle - Venäjän logistiikkasektori ja potentiaaliset sijoittumiskohteet

Venäjän voimakas talouskasvu on lisännyt merkittävästi myös logistiikkapalveluiden kysyntää maassa. Suuren pinta-alan, markkinapotentiaalin ja Euroopan ja Aasian välisen maantieteellisen sijainnin tarjoaman merkittävän kauttakulkupotentiaalin ansiosta Venäjä on erityisen kiinnostava investointikohde logistiikkayrityksille. Talouskasvu ei ole kuitenkaan jakautunut tasaisesti ja tämän vuoksi investoijan onkin syytä tarkoin selvittää minne Venäjän sisällä sijoittua. Tässä työssä on kartoitettu Venäjän logistiikkasektoria ja liikenneinfrastruktuuria sekä tarkasteltu kilpailutilannetta tavoitteena löytää logistiikkayrityksellekeskeisimmät sijaintikohteet Venäjällä. Moskova ja Pietari on rajattu tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Alan kirjallisuuteen ja aiheesta aiemmin laadittuihin tutkimuksiin perehtymällä on selvitetty yritysten sijaintipaikanvalinnalle asettamat tärkeimmät kriteerit. Logistiikkayrityksille toimivalla infrastruktuurilla on luonnollisesti oleellinen merkitys sijaintipaikkaa valittaessa, riittävän suuren markkinapotentiaalin ollessa toinen erittäin merkittävä kriteeri. Kirjallisuustarkastelun pohjalta potentiaalisiksi kohteiksi logistiikkayritykselle valikoitui 22 kaupunkia eri puolilta Venäjää. Monikriteerianalyysiin perustuvan pisteytysmenetelmän avulla toteutetussa potentiaalisten kohteiden luokittelussa kiinnostavimmiksi sijoittumiskohteiksi kohosivat Etelä-Venäjällä, Mustanmeren rannikolla sijaitsevat merkittävät satamakaupungit. Kehittyneen infrastruktuurin, merkittävän markkinapotentiaalin sekä suotuisten taloudellisten toimintaedellytysten ansiosta tarjoavat nämä erityisen merkittävän investointipotentiaalin logistiikkayrityksille.

Análisis territorial de la accesibilidad a la vivienda en España

El trabajo es una análisis territorial del problema de la accesibilidad a la vivienda en España. El ámbito de estudio son las Comunidades Autónomas (CCAA) y el objetivo es evaluar qué CCAA gozan de mejores condiciones de accesibilidad a la vivienda en propiedad. Para alcanzar tal objetivo se trabaja con cuatro grupos de variables: variables relacionadas con la oferta de viviendas, variables relacionadas con los precios de la vivienda, variables relacionadas con la política de la vivienda y variables relacionadas con las características y equipamiento de la vivienda. La metodología aplicada cae dentro de la programación multicriterio. Esta técnica ha sido elegida porque permite incluir en la función objetivo todas las variables consideradas relevantes e ir desgranando qué CCAA optimizan los criterios marcados de accesibilidad.

A method for decision making with the OWA operator

A new method for decision making that uses the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator in the aggregation of the information is presented. It is used a concept that it is known in the literature as the index of maximum and minimum level (IMAM). This index is based on distance measures and other techniques that are useful for decision making. By using the OWA operator in the IMAM, we form a new aggregation operator that we call the ordered weighted averaging index of maximum and minimum level (OWAIMAM) operator. The main advantage is that it provides a parameterized family of aggregation operators between the minimum and the maximum and a wide range of special cases. Then, the decision maker may take decisions according to his degree of optimism and considering ideals in the decision process. A further extension of this approach is presented by using hybrid averages and Choquet integrals. We also develop an application of the new approach in a multi-person decision-making problem regarding the selection of strategies.

Detecting Deceit – Guessing or Assessing? Study on the Applicability of Veracity Assessment Methods in Human Intelligence

Intelligence from a human source, that is falsely thought to be true, is potentially more harmful than a total lack of it. The veracity assessment of the gathered intelligence is one of the most important phases of the intelligence process. Lie detection and veracity assessment methods have been studied widely but a comprehensive analysis of these methods’ applicability is lacking. There are some problems related to the efficacy of lie detection and veracity assessment. According to a conventional belief an almighty lie detection method, that is almost 100% accurate and suitable for any social encounter, exists. However, scientific studies have shown that this is not the case, and popular approaches are often over simplified. The main research question of this study was: What is the applicability of veracity assessment methods, which are reliable and are based on scientific proof, in terms of the following criteria? o Accuracy, i.e. probability of detecting deception successfully o Ease of Use, i.e. easiness to apply the method correctly o Time Required to apply the method reliably o No Need for Special Equipment o Unobtrusiveness of the method In order to get an answer to the main research question, the following supporting research questions were answered first: What kinds of interviewing and interrogation techniques exist and how could they be used in the intelligence interview context, what kinds of lie detection and veracity assessment methods exist that are reliable and are based on scientific proof and what kind of uncertainty and other limitations are included in these methods? Two major databases, Google Scholar and Science Direct, were used to search and collect existing topic related studies and other papers. After the search phase, the understanding of the existing lie detection and veracity assessment methods was established through a meta-analysis. Multi Criteria Analysis utilizing Analytic Hierarchy Process was conducted to compare scientifically valid lie detection and veracity assessment methods in terms of the assessment criteria. In addition, a field study was arranged to get a firsthand experience of the applicability of different lie detection and veracity assessment methods. The Studied Features of Discourse and the Studied Features of Nonverbal Communication gained the highest ranking in overall applicability. They were assessed to be the easiest and fastest to apply, and to have required temporal and contextual sensitivity. The Plausibility and Inner Logic of the Statement, the Method for Assessing the Credibility of Evidence and the Criteria Based Content Analysis were also found to be useful, but with some limitations. The Discourse Analysis and the Polygraph were assessed to be the least applicable. Results from the field study support these findings. However, it was also discovered that the most applicable methods are not entirely troublefree either. In addition, this study highlighted that three channels of information, Content, Discourse and Nonverbal Communication, can be subjected to veracity assessment methods that are scientifically defensible. There is at least one reliable and applicable veracity assessment method for each of the three channels. All of the methods require disciplined application and a scientific working approach. There are no quick gains if high accuracy and reliability is desired. Since most of the current lie detection studies are concentrated around a scenario, where roughly half of the assessed people are totally truthful and the other half are liars who present a well prepared cover story, it is proposed that in future studies lie detection and veracity assessment methods are tested against partially truthful human sources. This kind of test setup would highlight new challenges and opportunities for the use of existing and widely studied lie detection methods, as well as for the modern ones that are still under development.

Indigo : une approche multi-stratégique et adaptative pour un alignement sémantique intégrant le contexte des données à apparier

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Priv-C : une politique de confidentialité personnalisable

Les politiques de confidentialité définissent comment les services en ligne collectent, utilisent et partagent les données des utilisateurs. Bien qu’étant le principal moyen pour informer les usagers de l’utilisation de leurs données privées, les politiques de confidentialité sont en général ignorées par ces derniers. Pour cause, les utilisateurs les trouvent trop longues et trop vagues, elles utilisent un vocabulaire souvent difficile et n’ont pas de format standard. Les politiques de confidentialité confrontent également les utilisateurs à un dilemme : celui d’accepter obligatoirement tout le contenu en vue d’utiliser le service ou refuser le contenu sous peine de ne pas y avoir accès. Aucune autre option n’est accordée à l’utilisateur. Les données collectées des utilisateurs permettent aux services en ligne de leur fournir un service, mais aussi de les exploiter à des fins économiques (publicités ciblées, revente, etc). Selon diverses études, permettre aux utilisateurs de bénéficier de cette économie de la vie privée pourrait restaurer leur confiance et faciliter une continuité des échanges sur Internet. Dans ce mémoire, nous proposons un modèle de politique de confidentialité, inspiré du P3P (une recommandation du W3C, World Wide Web Consortium), en élargissant ses fonctionnalités et en réduisant sa complexité. Ce modèle suit un format bien défini permettant aux utilisateurs et aux services en ligne de définir leurs préférences et besoins. Les utilisateurs ont la possibilité de décider de l’usage spécifique et des conditions de partage de chacune de leurs données privées. Une phase de négociation permettra une analyse des besoins du service en ligne et des préférences de l’utilisateur afin d’établir un contrat de confidentialité. La valeur des données personnelles est un aspect important de notre étude. Alors que les compagnies disposent de moyens leur permettant d’évaluer cette valeur, nous appliquons dans ce mémoire, une méthode hiérarchique multicritères. Cette méthode va permettre également à chaque utilisateur de donner une valeur à ses données personnelles en fonction de l’importance qu’il y accorde. Dans ce modèle, nous intégrons également une autorité de régulation en charge de mener les négociations entre utilisateurs et services en ligne, et de générer des recommandations aux usagers en fonction de leur profil et des tendances.

Análisis de sensibilidad para un modelo de medición de percepción de marca basado en simulación computacional por agentes

Se presenta el análisis de sensibilidad de un modelo de percepción de marca y ajuste de la inversión en marketing desarrollado en el Laboratorio de Simulación de la Universidad del Rosario. Este trabajo de grado consta de una introducción al tema de análisis de sensibilidad y su complementario el análisis de incertidumbre. Se pasa a mostrar ambos análisis usando un ejemplo simple de aplicación del modelo mediante la aplicación exhaustiva y rigurosa de los pasos descritos en la primera parte. Luego se hace una discusión de la problemática de medición de magnitudes que prueba ser el factor más complejo de la aplicación del modelo en el contexto práctico y finalmente se dan conclusiones sobre los resultados de los análisis.

Conceptual design of wastewater treatment plants using multiple objectives

La implementació de la Directiva Europea 91/271/CEE referent a tractament d'aigües residuals urbanes va promoure la construcció de noves instal·lacions al mateix temps que la introducció de noves tecnologies per tractar nutrients en àrees designades com a sensibles. Tant el disseny d'aquestes noves infraestructures com el redisseny de les ja existents es va portar a terme a partir d'aproximacions basades fonamentalment en objectius econòmics degut a la necessitat d'acabar les obres en un període de temps relativament curt. Aquests estudis estaven basats en coneixement heurístic o correlacions numèriques provinents de models determinístics simplificats. Així doncs, moltes de les estacions depuradores d'aigües residuals (EDARs) resultants van estar caracteritzades per una manca de robustesa i flexibilitat, poca controlabilitat, amb freqüents problemes microbiològics de separació de sòlids en el decantador secundari, elevats costos d'operació i eliminació parcial de nutrients allunyant-les de l'òptim de funcionament. Molts d'aquestes problemes van sorgir degut a un disseny inadequat, de manera que la comunitat científica es va adonar de la importància de les etapes inicials de disseny conceptual. Precisament per aquesta raó, els mètodes tradicionals de disseny han d'evolucionar cap a sistemes d'avaluació mes complexos, que tinguin en compte múltiples objectius, assegurant així un millor funcionament de la planta. Tot i la importància del disseny conceptual tenint en compte múltiples objectius, encara hi ha un buit important en la literatura científica tractant aquest camp d'investigació. L'objectiu que persegueix aquesta tesi és el de desenvolupar un mètode de disseny conceptual d'EDARs considerant múltiples objectius, de manera que serveixi d'eina de suport a la presa de decisions al seleccionar la millor alternativa entre diferents opcions de disseny. Aquest treball de recerca contribueix amb un mètode de disseny modular i evolutiu que combina diferent tècniques com: el procés de decisió jeràrquic, anàlisi multicriteri, optimació preliminar multiobjectiu basada en anàlisi de sensibilitat, tècniques d'extracció de coneixement i mineria de dades, anàlisi multivariant i anàlisi d'incertesa a partir de simulacions de Monte Carlo. Això s'ha aconseguit subdividint el mètode de disseny desenvolupat en aquesta tesis en quatre blocs principals: (1) generació jeràrquica i anàlisi multicriteri d'alternatives, (2) anàlisi de decisions crítiques, (3) anàlisi multivariant i (4) anàlisi d'incertesa. El primer dels blocs combina un procés de decisió jeràrquic amb anàlisi multicriteri. El procés de decisió jeràrquic subdivideix el disseny conceptual en una sèrie de qüestions mes fàcilment analitzables i avaluables mentre que l'anàlisi multicriteri permet la consideració de diferent objectius al mateix temps. D'aquesta manera es redueix el nombre d'alternatives a avaluar i fa que el futur disseny i operació de la planta estigui influenciat per aspectes ambientals, econòmics, tècnics i legals. Finalment aquest bloc inclou una anàlisi de sensibilitat dels pesos que proporciona informació de com varien les diferents alternatives al mateix temps que canvia la importància relativa del objectius de disseny. El segon bloc engloba tècniques d'anàlisi de sensibilitat, optimització preliminar multiobjectiu i extracció de coneixement per donar suport al disseny conceptual d'EDAR, seleccionant la millor alternativa un cop s'han identificat decisions crítiques. Les decisions crítiques són aquelles en les que s'ha de seleccionar entre alternatives que compleixen de forma similar els objectius de disseny però amb diferents implicacions pel que respecte a la futura estructura i operació de la planta. Aquest tipus d'anàlisi proporciona una visió més àmplia de l'espai de disseny i permet identificar direccions desitjables (o indesitjables) cap on el procés de disseny pot derivar. El tercer bloc de la tesi proporciona l'anàlisi multivariant de les matrius multicriteri obtingudes durant l'avaluació de les alternatives de disseny. Específicament, les tècniques utilitzades en aquest treball de recerca engloben: 1) anàlisi de conglomerats, 2) anàlisi de components principals/anàlisi factorial i 3) anàlisi discriminant. Com a resultat és possible un millor accés a les dades per realitzar la selecció de les alternatives, proporcionant més informació per a una avaluació mes efectiva, i finalment incrementant el coneixement del procés d'avaluació de les alternatives de disseny generades. En el quart i últim bloc desenvolupat en aquesta tesi, les diferents alternatives de disseny són avaluades amb incertesa. L'objectiu d'aquest bloc és el d'estudiar el canvi en la presa de decisions quan una alternativa és avaluada incloent o no incertesa en els paràmetres dels models que descriuen el seu comportament. La incertesa en el paràmetres del model s'introdueix a partir de funcions de probabilitat. Desprès es porten a terme simulacions Monte Carlo, on d'aquestes distribucions se n'extrauen números aleatoris que es subsisteixen pels paràmetres del model i permeten estudiar com la incertesa es propaga a través del model. Així és possible analitzar la variació en l'acompliment global dels objectius de disseny per a cada una de les alternatives, quines són les contribucions en aquesta variació que hi tenen els aspectes ambientals, legals, econòmics i tècnics, i finalment el canvi en la selecció d'alternatives quan hi ha una variació de la importància relativa dels objectius de disseny. En comparació amb les aproximacions tradicionals de disseny, el mètode desenvolupat en aquesta tesi adreça problemes de disseny/redisseny tenint en compte múltiples objectius i múltiples criteris. Al mateix temps, el procés de presa de decisions mostra de forma objectiva, transparent i sistemàtica el perquè una alternativa és seleccionada en front de les altres, proporcionant l'opció que més bé acompleix els objectius marcats, mostrant els punts forts i febles, les principals correlacions entre objectius i alternatives, i finalment tenint en compte la possible incertesa inherent en els paràmetres del model que es fan servir durant les anàlisis. Les possibilitats del mètode desenvolupat es demostren en aquesta tesi a partir de diferents casos d'estudi: selecció del tipus d'eliminació biològica de nitrogen (cas d'estudi # 1), optimització d'una estratègia de control (cas d'estudi # 2), redisseny d'una planta per aconseguir eliminació simultània de carboni, nitrogen i fòsfor (cas d'estudi # 3) i finalment anàlisi d'estratègies control a nivell de planta (casos d'estudi # 4 i # 5).

Integrated management of urban wastewater systems: a model-based approach

The main objective pursued in this thesis targets the development and systematization of a methodology that allows addressing management problems in the dynamic operation of Urban Wastewater Systems. The proposed methodology will suggest operational strategies that can improve the overall performance of the system under certain problematic situations through a model-based approach. The proposed methodology has three main steps: The first step includes the characterization and modeling of the case-study, the definition of scenarios, the evaluation criteria and the operational settings that can be manipulated to improve the system’s performance. In the second step, Monte Carlo simulations are launched to evaluate how the system performs for a wide range of operational settings combinations, and a global sensitivity analysis is conducted to rank the most influential operational settings. Finally, the third step consists on a screening methodology applying a multi-criteria analysis to select the best combinations of operational settings.

Assessing the environmental performance of English arable and livestock holdings using data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN)

Agri-environment schemes (AESs) have been implemented across EU member states in an attempt to reconcile agricultural production methods with protection of the environment and maintenance of the countryside. To determine the extent to which such policy objectives are being fulfilled, participating countries are obliged to monitor and evaluate the environmental, agricultural and socio-economic impacts of their AESs. However, few evaluations measure precise environmental outcomes and critically, there are no agreed methodologies to evaluate the benefits of particular agri-environmental measures, or to track the environmental consequences of changing agricultural practices. In response to these issues, the Agri-Environmental Footprint project developed a common methodology for assessing the environmental impact of European AES. The Agri-Environmental Footprint Index (AFI) is a farm-level, adaptable methodology that aggregates measurements of agri-environmental indicators based on Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) techniques. The method was developed specifically to allow assessment of differences in the environmental performance of farms according to participation in agri-environment schemes. The AFI methodology is constructed so that high values represent good environmental performance. This paper explores the use of the AFI methodology in combination with Farm Business Survey data collected in England for the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), to test whether its use could be extended for the routine surveillance of environmental performance of farming systems using established data sources. Overall, the aim was to measure the environmental impact of three different types of agriculture (arable, lowland livestock and upland livestock) in England and to identify differences in AFI due to participation in agri-environment schemes. However, because farm size, farmer age, level of education and region are also likely to influence the environmental performance of a holding, these factors were also considered. Application of the methodology revealed that only arable holdings participating in agri-environment schemes had a greater environmental performance, although responses differed between regions. Of the other explanatory variables explored, the key factors determining the environmental performance for lowland livestock holdings were farm size, farmer age and level of education. In contrast, the AFI value of upland livestock holdings differed only between regions. The paper demonstrates that the AFI methodology can be used readily with English FADN data and therefore has the potential to be applied more widely to similar data sources routinely collected across the EU-27 in a standardised manner.

Extreme wind storms over Europe in present and future climate: a cluster analysis approach

Boreal winter wind storm situations over Central Europe are investigated by means of an objective cluster analysis. Surface data from the NCEP-Reanalysis and ECHAM4/OPYC3-climate change GHG simulation (IS92a) are considered. To achieve an optimum separation of clusters of extreme storm conditions, 55 clusters of weather patterns are differentiated. To reduce the computational effort, a PCA is initially performed, leading to a data reduction of about 98 %. The clustering itself was computed on 3-day periods constructed with the first six PCs using "k-means" clustering algorithm. The applied method enables an evaluation of the time evolution of the synoptic developments. The climate change signal is constructed by a projection of the GCM simulation on the EOFs attained from the NCEP-Reanalysis. Consequently, the same clusters are obtained and frequency distributions can be compared. For Central Europe, four primary storm clusters are identified. These clusters feature almost 72 % of the historical extreme storms events and add only to 5 % of the total relative frequency. Moreover, they show a statistically significant signature in the associated wind fields over Europe. An increased frequency of Central European storm clusters is detected with enhanced GHG conditions, associated with an enhancement of the pressure gradient over Central Europe. Consequently, more intense wind events over Central Europe are expected. The presented algorithm will be highly valuable for the analysis of huge data amounts as is required for e.g. multi-model ensemble analysis, particularly because of the enormous data reduction.

Evaluating And Optimizing Sustainable Drainage Design To Maximize Multiple Benefits: Case Studies In China

In the past, the focus of drainage design was on sizing pipes and storages in order to provide sufficient network capacity. This traditional approach, together with computer software and technical guidance, had been successful for many years. However, due to rapid population growth and urbanisation, the requirements of a “good” drainage design have also changed significantly. In addition to water management, other aspects such as environmental impacts, amenity values and carbon footprint have to be considered during the design process. Going forward, we need to address the key sustainability issues carefully and practically. The key challenge of moving from simple objectives (e.g. capacity and costs) to complicated objectives (e.g. capacity, flood risk, environment, amenity etc) is the difficulty to strike a balance between various objectives and to justify potential benefits and compromises. In order to assist decision makers, we developed a new decision support system for drainage design. The system consists of two main components – a multi-criteria evaluation framework for drainage systems and a multi-objective optimisation tool. The evaluation framework is used for the quantification of performance, life-cycle costs and benefits of different drainage systems. The optimisation tool can search for feasible combinations of design parameters such as the sizes, order and type of drainage components that maximise multiple benefits. In this paper, we will discuss real-world application of the decision support system. A number of case studies have been developed based on recent drainage projects in China. We will use the case studies to illustrate how the evaluation framework highlights and compares the pros and cons of various design options. We will also discuss how the design parameters can be optimised based on the preferences of decision makers. The work described here is the output of an EngD project funded by EPSRC and XP Solutions.

Leilões eletrônicos reversos multiatributo : uma abordagem de decisão multicritério como instrumento de agregação de valor aos processos de compras do setor público brasileiro

Leilões são instituições seculares utilizadas nas relações comerciais entre indivíduos e organizações. Provêem maior flexibilidade aos processos de determinação de preços e alocação de bens, aumentando o espaço para negociações entre compradores e vendedores. Na Internet, têm sido empregados, de maneira crescente, em atividades de comércio eletrônico B2B e G2B, em sua maioria, através da modalidade de leilão reverso. No entanto, seu aspecto unidimensional reduz as negociações à variável preço, produzindo, muitas vezes, resultados aquém do desejado. No caso brasileiro, o Governo Federal instituiu o Portal Comprasnet, através do qual, as organizações públicas adquirem bens e serviços de fornecedores cadastrados. Dentre as modalidades de licitação disponíveis, destaca-se o Pregão Eletrônico, um mecanismo de leilão eletrônico reverso baseado no atributo preço, através do qual, fornecedores submetem lances decrescentes, na disputa por contratos do setor público. No presente trabalho, o autor propõe uma abordagem de decisão multicritério, baseada na Teoria da Utilidade Multiatributo, como uma alternativa para a adoção de leilões reversos baseados em múltiplos atributos e, consequentemente, para uma maior agregação de valor pelas organizações compradoras do setor público brasileiro.