The extrapolation problem and how population modeling can help

We argue that population modeling can add value to ecological risk assessment by reducing uncertainty when extrapolating from ecotoxicological observations to relevant ecological effects. We review other methods of extrapolation, ranging from application factors to species sensitivity distributions to suborganismal (biomarker and "-omics'') responses to quantitative structure activity relationships and model ecosystems, drawing attention to the limitations of each. We suggest a simple classification of population models and critically examine each model in an extrapolation context. We conclude that population models have the potential for adding value to ecological risk assessment by incorporating better understanding of the links between individual responses and population size and structure and by incorporating greater levels of ecological complexity. A number of issues, however, need to be addressed before such models are likely to become more widely used. In a science context, these involve challenges in parameterization, questions about appropriate levels of complexity, issues concerning how specific or general the models need to be, and the extent to which interactions through competition and trophic relationships can be easily incorporated.

Modeling the structure of amorphous MoS3: a neutron diffraction and reverse Monte Carlo study

A model for the structure of amorphous molybdenum trisulfide, a-MoS3, has been created using reverse Monte Carlo methods. This model, which consists of chains Of MoS6 units sharing three sulfurs with each of its two neighbors and forming alternate long, nonbonded, and short, bonded, Mo-Mo separations, is a good fit to the neutron diffraction data and is chemically and physically realistic. The paper identifies the limitations of previous models based on Mo-3 triangular clusters in accounting for the available experimental data.

Top-down systems biology modeling of host metabotype-microbiome associations in obese rodents

Covariation in the structural composition of the gut microbiome and the spectroscopically derived metabolic phenotype (metabotype) of a rodent model for obesity were investigated using a range of multivariate statistical tools. Urine and plasma samples from three strains of 10-week-old male Zucker rats (obese (fa/fa, n = 8), lean (fal-, n = 8) and lean (-/-, n = 8)) were characterized via high-resolution H-1 NMR spectroscopy, and in parallel, the fecal microbial composition was investigated using fluorescence in situ hydridization (FISH) and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) methods. All three Zucker strains had different relative abundances of the dominant members of their intestinal microbiota (FISH), with the novel observation of a Halomonas and a Sphingomonas species being present in the (fa/fa) obese strain on the basis of DGGE data. The two functionally and phenotypically normal Zucker strains (fal- and -/-) were readily distinguished from the (fa/fa) obese rats on the basis of their metabotypes with relatively lower urinary hippurate and creatinine, relatively higher levels of urinary isoleucine, leucine and acetate and higher plasma LDL and VLDL levels typifying the (fa/fa) obese strain. Collectively, these data suggest a conditional host genetic involvement in selection of the microbial species in each host strain, and that both lean and obese animals could have specific metabolic phenotypes that are linked to their individual microbiomes.

Efficient modeling and inference for event-related fMRI data

Event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (efMRI) has emerged as a powerful technique for detecting brains' responses to presented stimuli. A primary goal in efMRI data analysis is to estimate the Hemodynamic Response Function (HRF) and to locate activated regions in human brains when specific tasks are performed. This paper develops new methodologies that are important improvements not only to parametric but also to nonparametric estimation and hypothesis testing of the HRF. First, an effective and computationally fast scheme for estimating the error covariance matrix for efMRI is proposed. Second, methodologies for estimation and hypothesis testing of the HRF are developed. Simulations support the effectiveness of our proposed methods. When applied to an efMRI dataset from an emotional control study, our method reveals more meaningful findings than the popular methods offered by AFNI and FSL. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling and simulating a mathematical tool for multi-robot pattern transformation

The work reported in this paper is motivated by the need to investigate general methods for pattern transformation. A formal definition for pattern transformation is provided and four special cases namely, elementary and geometric transformation based on repositioning all and some agents in the pattern are introduced. The need for a mathematical tool and simulations for visualizing the behavior of a transformation method is highlighted. A mathematical method based on the Moebius transformation is proposed. The transformation method involves discretization of events for planning paths of individual robots in a pattern. Simulations on a particle physics simulator are used to validate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Modeling and simulating a mathematical tool for multi-robot pattern transformation

The work reported in this paper is motivated by the need to investigate general methods for pattern transformation. A formal definition for pattern transformation is provided and four special cases namely, elementary and geometric transformation based on repositioning all and some agents in the pattern are introduced. The need for a mathematical tool and simulations for visualizing the behavior of a transformation method is highlighted. A mathematical method based on the Moebius transformation is proposed. The transformation method involves discretization of events for planning paths of individual robots in a pattern. Simulations on a particle physics simulator are used to validate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Mixed initial-boundary value problem in particle modeling of microelectronic devices

The Boltzmann equation in presence of boundary and initial conditions, which describes the general case of carrier transport in microelectronic devices is analysed in terms of Monte Carlo theory. The classical Ensemble Monte Carlo algorithm which has been devised by merely phenomenological considerations of the initial and boundary carrier contributions is now derived in a formal way. The approach allows to suggest a set of event-biasing algorithms for statistical enhancement as an alternative of the population control technique, which is virtually the only algorithm currently used in particle simulators. The scheme of the self-consistent coupling of Boltzmann and Poisson equation is considered for the case of weighted particles. It is shown that particles survive the successive iteration steps.

Classification-based probabilistic modeling of texture transition for fast line search tracking and delineation

We introduce a classification-based approach to finding occluding texture boundaries. The classifier is composed of a set of weak learners, which operate on image intensity discriminative features that are defined on small patches and are fast to compute. A database that is designed to simulate digitized occluding contours of textured objects in natural images is used to train the weak learners. The trained classifier score is then used to obtain a probabilistic model for the presence of texture transitions, which can readily be used for line search texture boundary detection in the direction normal to an initial boundary estimate. This method is fast and therefore suitable for real-time and interactive applications. It works as a robust estimator, which requires a ribbon-like search region and can handle complex texture structures without requiring a large number of observations. We demonstrate results both in the context of interactive 2D delineation and of fast 3D tracking and compare its performance with other existing methods for line search boundary detection.

Generalized neurofuzzy network modeling algorithms using Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions and additive decomposition

This paper introduces a new neurofuzzy model construction algorithm for nonlinear dynamic systems based upon basis functions that are Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions. This paper is generalized in that it copes with n-dimensional inputs by utilising an additive decomposition construction to overcome the curse of dimensionality associated with high n. This new construction algorithm also introduces univariate Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions for the completeness of the generalized procedure. Like the B-spline expansion based neurofuzzy systems, Bezier-Bernstein polynomial function based neurofuzzy networks hold desirable properties such as nonnegativity of the basis functions, unity of support, and interpretability of basis function as fuzzy membership functions, moreover with the additional advantages of structural parsimony and Delaunay input space partition, essentially overcoming the curse of dimensionality associated with conventional fuzzy and RBF networks. This new modeling network is based on additive decomposition approach together with two separate basis function formation approaches for both univariate and bivariate Bezier-Bernstein polynomial functions used in model construction. The overall network weights are then learnt using conventional least squares methods. Numerical examples are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new data based modeling approach.

The application of Prony’s method to time-domain waveform data modeling in the presence of noise

In this paper,the Prony's method is applied to the time-domain waveform data modelling in the presence of noise.The following three problems encountered in this work are studied:(1)determination of the order of waveform;(2)de-termination of numbers of multiple roots;(3)determination of the residues.The methods of solving these problems are given and simulated on the computer.Finally,an output pulse of model PG-10N signal generator and the distorted waveform obtained by transmitting the pulse above mentioned through a piece of coaxial cable are modelled,and satisfactory results are obtained.So the effectiveness of Prony's method in waveform data modelling in the presence of noise is confirmed.

Kinematic modeling of head-neck movements

The main objective is to generate kinematic models for the head and neck movements. The motivation comes from our study of individuals with quadriplegia and the need to design rehabilitation aiding devices such as robots and teletheses that can be controlled by head-neck movements. It is then necessary to develop mathematical models for the head and neck movements. Two identification methods have been applied to study the kinematics of head-neck movements of able-body as well as neck-injured subjects. In particular, sagittal plane movements are well modeled by a planar two-revolute-joint linkage. In fact, the motion in joint space seems to indicate that sagittal plane movements may be classified as a single DOF motion. Finally, a spatial three-revolute-joint system has been employed to model 3D head-neck movements.

Advances in continuously profiling the thermodynamic state of the boundary layer: integration of measurements and methods

This paper describes advances in ground-based thermodynamic profiling of the lower troposphere through sensor synergy. The well-documented integrated profiling technique (IPT), which uses a microwave profiler, a cloud radar, and a ceilometer to simultaneously retrieve vertical profiles of temperature, humidity, and liquid water content (LWC) of nonprecipitating clouds, is further developed toward an enhanced performance in the boundary layer and lower troposphere. For a more accurate temperature profile, this is accomplished by including an elevation scanning measurement modus of the microwave profiler. Height-dependent RMS accuracies of temperature (humidity) ranging from 0.3 to 0.9 K (0.5–0.8 g m−3) in the boundary layer are derived from retrieval simulations and confirmed experimentally with measurements at distinct heights taken during the 2005 International Lindenberg Campaign for Assessment of Humidity and Cloud Profiling Systems and its Impact on High-Resolution Modeling (LAUNCH) of the German Weather Service. Temperature inversions, especially of the lower boundary layer, are captured in a very satisfactory way by using the elevation scanning mode. To improve the quality of liquid water content measurements in clouds the authors incorporate a sophisticated target classification scheme developed within the European cloud observing network CloudNet. It allows the detailed discrimination between different types of backscatterers detected by cloud radar and ceilometer. Finally, to allow IPT application also to drizzling cases, an LWC profiling method is integrated. This technique classifies the detected hydrometeors into three different size classes using certain thresholds determined by radar reflectivity and/or ceilometer extinction profiles. By inclusion into IPT, the retrieved profiles are made consistent with the measurements of the microwave profiler and an LWC a priori profile. Results of IPT application to 13 days of the LAUNCH campaign are analyzed, and the importance of integrated profiling for model evaluation is underlined.

Modeling building semantics: providing feedback and sustainability

Even minor changes in user activity can bring about significant energy savings within built space. Many building performance assessment methods have been developed, however these often disregard the impact of user behavior (i.e. the social, cultural and organizational aspects of the building). Building users currently have limited means of determining how sustainable they are, in context of the specific building structure and/or when compared to other users performing similar activities, it is therefore easy for users to dismiss their energy use. To support sustainability, buildings must be able to monitor energy use, identify areas of potential change in the context of user activity and provide contextually relevant information to facilitate persuasion management. If the building is able to provide users with detailed information about how specific user activity that is wasteful, this should provide considerable motivation to implement positive change. This paper proposes using a dynamic and temporal semantic model, to populate information within a model of persuasion, to manage user change. By semantically mapping a building, and linking this to persuasion management we suggest that: i) building energy use can be monitored and analyzed over time; ii) persuasive management can be facilitated to move user activity towards sustainability.

Modeling data with structural and temporal correlation using lower level and higher level multilevel models

Novel imaging techniques are playing an increasingly important role in drug development, providing insight into the mechanism of action of new chemical entities. The data sets obtained by these methods can be large with complex inter-relationships, but the most appropriate statistical analysis for handling this data is often uncertain - precisely because of the exploratory nature of the way the data are collected. We present an example from a clinical trial using magnetic resonance imaging to assess changes in atherosclerotic plaques following treatment with a tool compound with established clinical benefit. We compared two specific approaches to handle the correlations due to physical location and repeated measurements: two-level and four-level multilevel models. The two methods identified similar structural variables, but higher level multilevel models had the advantage of explaining a greater proportion of variation, and the modeling assumptions appeared to be better satisfied.

Heat kernel smoothing via Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions and its application to subcortical structure modeling

We present a new subcortical structure shape modeling framework using heat kernel smoothing constructed with the Laplace-Beltrami eigenfunctions. The cotan discretization is used to numerically obtain the eigenfunctions of the Laplace-Beltrami operator along the surface of subcortical structures of the brain. The eigenfunctions are then used to construct the heat kernel and used in smoothing out measurements noise along the surface. The proposed framework is applied in investigating the influence of age (38-79 years) and gender on amygdala and hippocampus shape. We detected a significant age effect on hippocampus in accordance with the previous studies. In addition, we also detected a significant gender effect on amygdala. Since we did not find any such differences in the traditional volumetric methods, our results demonstrate the benefit of the current framework over traditional volumetric methods.