Towards the systematic simplification of mechanistic models

Mechanistic models used for prediction should be parsimonious, as models which are over-parameterised may have poor predictive performance. Determining whether a model is parsimonious requires comparisons with alternative model formulations with differing levels of complexity. However, creating alternative formulations for large mechanistic models is often problematic, and usually time-consuming. Consequently, few are ever investigated. In this paper, we present an approach which rapidly generates reduced model formulations by replacing a model’s variables with constants. These reduced alternatives can be compared to the original model, using data based model selection criteria, to assist in the identification of potentially unnecessary model complexity, and thereby inform reformulation of the model. To illustrate the approach, we present its application to a published radiocaesium plant-uptake model, which predicts uptake on the basis of soil characteristics (e.g. pH, organic matter content, clay content). A total of 1024 reduced model formulations were generated, and ranked according to five model selection criteria: Residual Sum of Squares (RSS), AICc, BIC, MDL and ICOMP. The lowest scores for RSS and AICc occurred for the same reduced model in which pH dependent model components were replaced. The lowest scores for BIC, MDL and ICOMP occurred for a further reduced model in which model components related to the distinction between adsorption on clay and organic surfaces were replaced. Both these reduced models had a lower RSS for the parameterisation dataset than the original model. As a test of their predictive performance, the original model and the two reduced models outlined above were used to predict an independent dataset. The reduced models have lower prediction sums of squares than the original model, suggesting that the latter may be overfitted. The approach presented has the potential to inform model development by rapidly creating a class of alternative model formulations, which can be compared.

Enotourism – more than a life style

Enotourism is a relatively new form of sustainable tourism. But is more than a lifestyle. The Douro landscape reflects its ancient and deep connection with the culture of wine, creating a picture of Man and Nature working side by side in search of the perfect wine. Lifestyle typically reflects: an individual's attitude, a way of life, values, or world view. Practical implications - the results suggest that there is scope for developing wine tourism products to attract tourists and which could be used to promote the Douro Valley region as a centre for enotourism. The beautifully unique landscape of the Douro was one of the reasons that made it a World Heritage site in 2001. There isn´t in Portugal an autonomous strategy process to define enotourism. Is a legal problem when we try to analyse the process or a data base to find information about enotourism players. So, how do winery operators, particularly those running small or family businesses, cope with the new developments occurring in the world of wines? The present study examines these issues from the perspective of a group of Portuguese winery operators. Our proposal in this research, is to analyse how many wineris or enotecas are hable to develop enotourism with a legal process. The results of the study reflect the level of education of employees, the seasonal nature of tourism, the improvements in its promotion and the need for greater support from local government. A key aspect is respect for the people who call the location home, the culture and customs of the area, and the socio-economic system. Design/methodology/approach - The methodology employed for this study consisted of a combination of surveys, interviews and field observations with the suppliers in the traditional wine‐producing region, Douro Valley, or Porto wine region, in the north of Portugal. The results of this investigation are almost analisys made inside the villages and also us wineries and enotecas. From the 30 winemakers that we visited, only 2 have an enotourism service acording to legislation and have a certificate that allows to pratices. It was very hard but it is an open field to future researchs (TOMÁS López‐Guzmán,et al, 2011). From the 30 wineries we have analysed only 2 were enotourism with a legal basis. Enotourism is on the travel agencies department and most of the wineries don´t have the legal licenses. Despite of most tourism agencies see enoturism as a segment of the industry with tremendous growth potential, stating that in some regions, it's only functioning at 20% of its full potential. Enotourism development guidelines and management practices are applicable to all forms of tourism in all destination types, including mass tourism and the various niche tourism segments.

Uso da espectroscopia de reflectância do infravermelho próximo (NIRS) para previsão da composição bromatológica de vagens de algaroba e palma forrageira.

Espécies forrageiras adaptadas às condições semiáridas são uma alternativa para reduzir os impactos negativos na cadeia produtiva de ruminantes da região Nordeste brasileira devido à sazonalidade na oferta de forragem, além de reduzir custo com o fornecimento de alimentos concentrados. Dentre as espécies, a vagem de algaroba (Prosopis juliflora SW D.C.) e palma forrageira (Opuntia e Nopalea) ganham destaque por tolerarem o déficit hídrico e produzirem em períodos onde a oferta de forragem está reduzida, além de apresentam bom valor nutricional e serem bem aceitas pelos animais. Porém, devido à variação na sua composição, seu uso na alimentação animal exige o conhecimento profundo da sua composição para a elaboração de dietas balanceadas. No entanto, devido ao custo e tempo para análise, os produtores não fazem uso da prática de análise da composição químico-bromatológica dos alimentos. Por isto, a espectroscopia de reflectância no infravermelho próximo (NIRS) representa uma importante alternativa aos métodos tradicionais. Objetivou-se com este estudo desenvolver e validar modelos de predição da composição bromatológica de vagem de algaroba e palma forrageira baseados em espectroscopia NIRS, escaneadas em dois modelos de equipamentos e com diferentes processamentos da amostra. Foram coletadas amostras de vagem de algaroba nos estados do Ceará, Bahia, Paraíba e Pernambuco, e amostras de palma forrageira nos estados do Ceará, Paraíba e Pernambuco, frescas (in natura) ou pré-secas e moídas. Para obtenção dos espectros utilizaram-se dois equipamentos NIR, Perten DA 7250 e FOSS 5000. Inicialmente os alimentos foram escaneados in natura em aparelho do modelo Perten, e, com o auxílio do software The Unscrambler 10.2 foi selecionado um grupo de amostras para o banco de calibração. As amostras selecionadas foram secas e moídas, e escaneadas novamente em equipamentos Perten e FOSS. Os valores dos parâmetros de referência foram obtidos por meio de metodologias tradicionalmente aplicadas em laboratório de nutrição animal para matéria seca (MS), matéria mineral (MM), matéria orgânica (MO), proteína bruta (PB), estrato etéreo (EE), fibra solúvel em detergente neutro (FDN), fibra solúvel em detergente ácido (FDA), hemicelulose (HEM) e digestibilidade in vitro da matéria seca (DIVMS). O desempenho dos modelos foi avaliado de acordo com os erros médios de calibração (RMSEC) e validação (RMSECV), coeficiente de determinação (R2 ) e da relação de desempenho de desvio dos modelos (RPD). A análise exploratória dos dados, por meio de tratamentos espectrais e análise de componentes principais (PCA), demonstraram que os bancos de dados eram similares entre si, dando segurança de desenvolver os modelos com todas as amostras selecionadas em um único modelo para cada alimento, algaroba e palma. Na avaliação dos resultados de referência, observou-se que a variação dos resultados para cada parâmetro corroboraram com os descritos na literatura. No desempenho dos modelos, aqueles desenvolvidos com pré-processamento da amostra (pré-secagem e moagem) se mostraram mais robustos do que aqueles construídos com amostras in natura. O aparelho NIRS Perten apresentou desempenho semelhante ao equipamento FOSS, apesar desse último cobrir uma faixa espectral maior e com intervalos de leituras menores. A técnica NIR, associada ao método de calibração multivariada de regressão por meio de quadrados mínimos (PLS), mostrou-se confiável para prever a composição químico-bromatológica de vagem de algaroba e da palma forrageira. Abstract: Forage species adapted to semi-arid conditions are an alternative to reduce the negative impacts in the feed supply for ruminants in the Brazilian Northeast region, due to seasonality in forage availability, as well as in the reducing of cost by providing concentrated feedstuffs. Among the species, mesquite pods (Prosopis juliflora SW DC) and spineless cactus (Opuntia and Nopalea) are highlighted for tolerating the drought and producion in periods where the forage is scarce, and have high nutritional value and also are well accepted by the animals. However, its use in animal diets requires a knowledge about its composition to prepare balanced diets. However, farmers usually do not use feed composition analysis, because their high cost and time-consuming. Thus, the Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy in the (NIRS) is an important alternative to traditional methods. The objective of this study to develop and validate predictive models of the chemical composition of mesquite pods and spineless cactus-based NIRS spectroscopy, scanned in two different spectrometers and sample processing. Mesquite pods samples were collected in the states of Ceará, Bahia, Paraiba and Pernambuco, and samples of forage cactus in the states of Ceará, Paraíba and Pernambuco. In order to obtain the spectra, it was used two NIR equipment: Perten DA 7250 and FOSS 5000. sSpectra of samples were initially obtained fresh (as received) using Perten instrument, and with The Unscrambler software 10.2, a group of subsamples was selected to model development, keeping out redundant ones. The selected samples were dried and ground, and scanned again in both Perten and FOSS instruments. The values of the reference analysis were obtained by methods traditionally applied in animal nutrition laboratory to dry matter (DM), mineral matter (MM), organic matter (OM), crude protein (CP), ether extract (EE), soluble neutral detergent fiber (NDF), soluble acid detergent fiber (ADF), hemicellulose ( HEM) and in vitro digestibility of dry matter (DIVDM). The performance of the models was evaluated according to the Root Mean Square Error of Calibration (RMSEC) and cross-validation (RMSECV), coefficient of determination (R2 ) and the deviation of Ratio of performance Deviation of the models (RPD). Exploratory data analysis through spectral treatments and principal component analysis (PCA), showed that the databases were similar to each other, and may be treated asa single model for each feed - mesquite pods and cactus. Evaluating the reference results, it was observed that the variation were similar to those reported in the literature. Comparing the preprocessing of samples, the performance ofthose developed with preprocessing (dried and ground) of the sample were more robust than those built with fresh samples. The NIRS Perten device performance similar to FOSS equipment, although the latter cover a larger spectral range and with lower readings intervals. NIR technology associate do multivariate techniques is reliable to predict the bromatological composition of mesquite pods and cactus.

Risk assessment to improve food safety along different food chains

The great challenges of today pose great pressure on the food chain to provide safe and nutritious food that meets regulations and consumer health standards. In this context, Risk Analysis is used to produce an estimate of the risks to human health and to identify and implement effective risk-control measures. The aims of this work were 1) describe how QRA is used to evaluate the risk for consumers health, 2) address the methodology to obtain models to apply in QMRA; 3) evaluate solutions to mitigate the risk. The application of a QCRA to the Italian milk industry enabled the assessment of Aflatoxin M1 exposure, impact on different population categories, and comparison of risk-mitigation strategies. The results highlighted the most sensitive population categories, and how more stringent sampling plans reduced risk. The application of a QMRA to Spanish fresh cheeses evidenced how the contamination of this product with Listeria monocytogenes may generate a risk for the consumers. Two risk-mitigation actions were evaluated, i.e. reducing shelf life and domestic refrigerator temperature, both resulting effective in reducing the risk of listeriosis. A description of the most applied protocols for data generation for predictive model development, was provided to increase transparency and reproducibility and to provide the means to better QMRA. The development of a linear regression model describing the fate of Salmonella spp. in Italian salami during the production process and HPP was described. Alkaline electrolyzed water was evaluated for its potential use to reduce microbial loads on working surfaces, with results showing its effectiveness. This work showed the relevance of QRA, of predictive microbiology, and of new technologies to ensure food safety on a more integrated way. Filling of data gaps, the development of better models and the inclusion of new risk-mitigation strategies may lead to improvements in the presented QRAs.

A comparison of model laws as a starting point for the development of an enforceable international consumer protection regime

This article is concerned primarily with an examination and comparison of select aspects of the model international consumer protection laws proposed by the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), using the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Australia) as a basis for examination and comparison. As a secondary consideration, it also broadly examines the content of, and differences between, the model laws. The motive for this article is that any future enforceable international consumer protection regime (possibly in the form of an international treaty or convention) would need to take into account the UN, EU and OECD guidelines. A cross-comparison of those model laws, and a comparison of them with the consumer protection provisions of a well established national consumer protection law, should provide a useful starting point for the development of such a regime. The 'select aspects' of the model laws in question are the various provisions of those laws which could relate to situations involving the wrong delivery or non-delivery of goods.

Sustainable development 20 years on from the earth summit: progress, gaps and strategic guidelines for Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Development of a conceptual model for mass gatherings

In making the arrangements for the visit of Pope John Paul II to San Antonio, Texas, in September, 1987, it was discovered that no comprehensive documents or guidelines are available in the public sector for planning such an event. It was not clear which, if any, laws applied. The literature describes rock concerts, papal masses, and civil disorders. These events are held in stadia, and in the open. There was little agreement on what services, if any, were needed to protect the public's health and the environment; or if needed, how services should be provided, or by whom.^ A literature review and bibliography are given to provide greater understanding of the variety of mass gatherings and the many factors that impinge on temporary groups while away from their homes. Descriptions of past mass gatherings in terms of personnel ratios are provided. This study develops a conceptual model which delineates some of the known parameters necessary for successfully conducting a mass gathering. A study of one such site is given.^ Provisions for public wellness and freedom from disease at a mass gathering include adequate water (fluids), food, sanitary facilities, security, transportation, and medical services. The determination of adequacy of these provisions is discussed. Methods of determining the use of provided facilities are given. ^

Development of a model of cross-curricular competencies of students at the Technical University of Madrid

It is known that cross-curricular competences are required for main companies all over the world to be part of our university graduates as technical knowledge does. That is the reason which has led the university structure to include these competences in the every degree curriculo validated since the European Higher Education Area (EHEA)was introduced in the Spanish university context. But the way used for incorporating them has been developed without the necessary guidelines to generate a qualified model.

Estudio y análisis para la elaboración de un modelo de certificado de calidad cinegética en España = Study and analysis for the development of a model of hunting quality certificate in Spain

Con esta tesis doctoral se pretende elaborar un modelo de Certificado de Calidad Cinegética independiente, de adhesión voluntaria y aplicable a todo tipo de espacios cinegéticos, de forma que posteriormente pueda convertirse en una metodología que sea empleada como instrumento válido de medición de la Calidad Cinegética y normalizada a través de una familia de Normas aprobadas por un organismo de normalización reconocido a nivel nacional o internacional. En primer lugar, se procedió a la realización de un riguroso y exhaustivo estudio de justificación siguiendo la metodología propuesta por la Norma UNE 66172:2003 IN, Directrices para la justificación y desarrollo de sistemas de gestión (equivalente a la Norma Internacional GUIA ISO/IEC 72:2001). A continuación, se procedió a la identificación y desarrollo de los parámetros de Ordenación Cinegética comunes a cualquier espacio cinegético en España y a la conceptualización de la Calidad Cinegética. Finalmente, se desarrolló un modelo estructurado en nueve Criterios y treinta y cuatro Indicadores de Calidad Cinegética, y un proyecto de familia de Normas para la Certificación de la Calidad Cinegética. ABSTRACT This doctoral thesis aims to produce a model of Hunting Quality Certificate independent, of voluntary adherence and applicable to all types of hunting areas, so that later it can become a methodology to be used as a valid instrument for measuring Hunting Quality and standardized through a family of standards approved by an organization of standardization recognized at a national or an international level. First, we proceeded to carry out a rigorous and comprehensive justification study following the methodology proposed by the UNE 66172: 2003 IN, Guidelines for the justification and development of management systems standards (equivalent to the International Standard GUIA ISO / IEC 72: 2001). Then, we proceeded to the identification and development of Hunting Management parameters common to any hunting area in Spain and the conceptualization of Hunting Quality. Finally, a model structured into nine Criteria and thirty-four Indicators of Hunting Quality and a draft of a family of standards for Hunting Quality Certification were developed.

Information statement for applicants and grantees, model projects on aging (Older Americans Act, Title III, Section 308) : guidelines and application forms, fiscal year 1978 grant program.

Cover title.

Development of An Enhanced Oil Sands Fluid Tailings Generation Model

Bitumen extraction from surface-mined oil sands results in the production of large volumes of Fluid Fine Tailings (FFT). Through Directive 085, the Province of Alberta has signaled that oil sands operators must improve and accelerate the methods by which they deal with FFT production, storage and treatment. This thesis aims to develop an enhanced method to forecast FFT production based on specific ore characteristics. A mass relationship and mathematical model to modify the Forecasting Tailings Model (FTM) by using fines and clay boundaries, as the two main indicators in FFT accumulation, has been developed. The modified FTM has been applied on representative block model data from an operating oil sands mining venture. An attempt has been made to identify order-of-magnitude associated tailings treatment costs, and to improve financial performance by not processing materials that have ultimate ore processing and tailings storage and treatment costs in excess of the value of bitumen they produce. The results on the real case study show that there is a 53% reduction in total tailings accumulations over the mine life by selectively processing only lower tailings generating materials through eliminating 15% of total mined ore materials with higher potential of fluid fines inventory. This significant result will assess the impact of Directive 082 on mining project economic and environmental performance towards the sustainable development of mining projects.

Convergence of developmental mutants into a single tomato model system: 'Micro-Tom' as an effective toolkit for plant development research

Background: The tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) plant is both an economically important food crop and an ideal dicot model to investigate various physiological phenomena not possible in Arabidopsis thaliana. Due to the great diversity of tomato cultivars used by the research community, it is often difficult to reliably compare phenotypes. The lack of tomato developmental mutants in a single genetic background prevents the stacking of mutations to facilitate analysis of double and multiple mutants, often required for elucidating developmental pathways. Results: We took advantage of the small size and rapid life cycle of the tomato cultivar Micro-Tom (MT) to create near-isogenic lines (NILs) by introgressing a suite of hormonal and photomorphogenetic mutations (altered sensitivity or endogenous levels of auxin, ethylene, abscisic acid, gibberellin, brassinosteroid, and light response) into this genetic background. To demonstrate the usefulness of this collection, we compared developmental traits between the produced NILs. All expected mutant phenotypes were expressed in the NILs. We also created NILs harboring the wild type alleles for dwarf, self-pruning and uniform fruit, which are mutations characteristic of MT. This amplified both the applications of the mutant collection presented here and of MT as a genetic model system. Conclusions: The community resource presented here is a useful toolkit for plant research, particularly for future studies in plant development, which will require the simultaneous observation of the effect of various hormones, signaling pathways and crosstalk.

A Referential Model for Small Companies of Development Software

This paper presents the proposal for a reference model for developing software aimed at small companies. Despite the importance of that represent the small software companies in Latin America, the fact of not having its own standards, and able to meet their specific, has created serious difficulties in improving their process and also in quality certification. In this sense and as a contribution to better understanding of the subject they propose a reference model and as a means to validate the proposal, presents a report of its application in a small Brazilian company, committed to certification of the quality model MPS.BR.

Epidermal iontophoresis: I. Development of the ionic mobility-pore model

Purpose, An integrated ionic mobility-pore model for epidermal iontophoresis is developed from theoretical considerations using both the free volume and pore restriction forms of the model for a range of solute radii (r(j)) approaching the pore radii (r(p)) as well as approximation of the pore restriction form for r(j)/r(p) < 0.4. In this model, we defined the determinants for iontophoresis as solute size (defined by MV, MW or radius), solute mobility, solute shape, solute charge, the Debye layer thickness, total current applied, solute concentration, fraction ionized, presence of extraneous ions (defined by solvent conductivity), epidermal permselectivity, partitioning rates to account for interaction of unionized and ionized lipophilic solutes with the wall of the pore and electroosmosis. Methods, The ionic mobility-pore model was developed from theoretical considerations to include each of the determinants of iontophoretic transport. The model was then used to reexamine iontophoretic flux conductivity and iontophoretic flux-fraction ionized literature data on the determinants of iontophoretic flux. Results. The ionic mobility-pore model was found to be consistent with existing experimental data and determinants defining iontophoretic transport. However, the predicted effects of solute size on iontophoresis are more consistent with the pore-restriction than free volume form of the model. A reanalysis of iontophoretic flux-conductivity data confirmed the model's prediction that, in the absence of significant electroosmosis, the reciprocal of flux is linearly related to either donor or receptor solution conductivity. Significant interaction with the pore walls, as described by the model, accounted for the reported pH dependence of the iontophoretic transport for a range of ionizable solutes. Conclusions. The ionic mobility-pore iontophoretic model developed enables a range of determinants of iontophoresis to be described in a single unifying equation which recognises a range of determinants of iontophoretic flux.