Evaluation of two hybrid metric-conceptual models, for simulating phosphorus transfer from agricultural land in the river enborne, a lowland UK catchment

Across Europe, elevated phosphorus (P) concentrations in lowland rivers have made them particularly susceptible to eutrophication. This is compounded in southern and central UK by increasing pressures on water resources, which may be further enhanced by the potential effects of climate change. The EU Water Framework Directive requires an integrated approach to water resources management at the catchment scale and highlights the need for modelling tools that can distinguish relative contributions from multiple nutrient sources and are consistent with the information content of the available data. Two such models are introduced and evaluated within a stochastic framework using daily flow and total phosphorus concentrations recorded in a clay catchment typical of many areas of the lowland UK. Both models disaggregate empirical annual load estimates, derived from land use data, as a function of surface/near surface runoff, generated using a simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Estimates of the daily load from agricultural land, together with those from baseflow and point sources, feed into an in-stream routing algorithm. The first model assumes constant concentrations in runoff via surface/near surface pathways and incorporates an additional P store in the river-bed sediments, depleted above a critical discharge, to explicitly simulate resuspension. The second model, which is simpler, simulates P concentrations as a function of surface/near surface runoff, thus emphasising the influence of non-point source loads during flow peaks and mixing of baseflow and point sources during low flows. The temporal consistency of parameter estimates and thus the suitability of each approach is assessed dynamically following a new approach based on Monte-Carlo analysis. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Devolution and the political representation of business interests in the UK

The devolution of political power in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the developing regional agenda in England are widely read as a significant reconfiguration of the institutions and scales of economic governance. The process is furthest developed in Scotland while Wales and Northern Ireland, in their own distinct ways, provide intermediate cases. Devolution is least developed in England where regional political identities are generally weak and the historical legacy of regional institutions is limited. Within the overall context of devolution government policy has continued to emphasize partnership forms of. governance. Accordingly, the political representation of business interests has a particular salience in the new arrangements. This paper reports on findings from a study designed to examine the relationship between devolution and changes in the political representation of business interests in the territories and regions of the UK. It highlights a number of changes in the nature and extent of business representation. While some of these are significant the evidence suggests that they fail to mark a fundamental shift in the institutional foundation for sub-national business interest representation in the UK. Indeed the political geography of business representation remains dominated by an overarching centralism that is likely to provide a significant check on the further devolution of political power and democratic authority. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atypical neural self-representation in autism

The 'self' is a complex multidimensional construct deeply embedded and in many ways defined by our relations with the social world. Individuals with autism are impaired in both self-referential and other-referential social cognitive processing. Atypical neural representation of the self may be a key to understanding the nature of such impairments. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging we scanned adult males with an autism spectrum condition and age and IQ-matched neurotypical males while they made reflective mentalizing or physical judgements about themselves or the British Queen. Neurotypical individuals preferentially recruit the middle cingulate cortex and ventromedial prefrontal cortex in response to self compared with other-referential processing. In autism, ventromedial prefrontal cortex responded equally to self and other, while middle cingulate cortex responded more to other-mentalizing than self-mentalizing. These atypical responses occur only in areas where self-information is preferentially processed and does not affect areas that preferentially respond to other-referential information. In autism, atypical neural self-representation was also apparent via reduced functional connectivity between ventromedial prefrontal cortex and areas associated with lower level embodied representations, such as ventral premotor and somatosensory cortex. Furthermore, the magnitude of neural self-other distinction in ventromedial prefrontal cortex was strongly related to the magnitude of early childhood social impairments in autism. Individuals whose ventromedial prefrontal cortex made the largest distinction between mentalizing about self and other were least socially impaired in early childhood, while those whose ventromedial prefrontal cortex made little to no distinction between mentalizing about self and other were the most socially impaired in early childhood. These observations reveal that the atypical organization of neural circuitry preferentially coding for self-information is a key mechanism at the heart of both self-referential and social impairments in autism.

Evaluation of the model representation of the evolution of convective systems using satellite observations of outgoing longwave radiation

We introduce a technique for assessing the diurnal development of convective storm systems based on outgoing longwave radiation fields. Using the size distribution of the storms measured from a series of images, we generate an array in the lengthscale-time domain based on the standard score statistic. It demonstrates succinctly the size evolution of storms as well as the dissipation kinematics. It also provides evidence related to the temperature evolution of the cloud tops. We apply this approach to a test case comparing observations made by the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget instrument to output from the Met Office Unified Model run at two resolutions. The 12km resolution model produces peak convective activity on all lengthscales significantly earlier in the day than shown by the observations and no evidence for storms growing in size. The 4km resolution model shows realistic timing and growth evolution although the dissipation mechanism still differs from the observed data.