Cape Town , South Africa, 1942 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Capetown Harbor, Union of South Africa, drawn in Geography Division, O.S.S. Provisional ed. It was published by the OSS in 1942. Scale [ca. 1:23,000]. Covers the Table Bay harbor area of Cape Town, South Africa. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'WGS 1984 UTM 34S' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, railroads, drainage, selected buildings and industries, proposed and existing wharves and docks, and more. Shows plans for the proposed reclamation area of the harbor. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Istanbul and Bosporus Region, Turkey, 1821 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Plan de Constantinople : du Bosphore & du Canal de la Mer Noire dessiné d'apres les meilleurs materiaux, par F. Fried ; gravé par Rud. de Rothenburg. It was published by chez Artaria & Co. in 1821. Scale [ca. 1:50,000]. Covers Istanbul and Bosporus Region, Turkey. Map in French. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'European Datum 1950 UTM Zone 35N' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, cities, towns, and villages, drainage, built-up areas and selected buildings, fortification, city districts, ports, aqueducts, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Depths shown by soundings. Includes indexes, note, and inset: Plan du Serail. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Cape of Good Hope and Cape Town Region, South Africa, Nautical Chart, 1822 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic, paper map entitled: Survey of the Cape of Good Hope, by Lieut. A.T.E. Vidal of H.M.S. Leven, assisted by Captn. Chas. Lechmere, R.N. Lieut T. Boteler, and Mr. H.A. Gibbons, Admlty. Midn. under the direction of Captn. W.F.W. Owen, 1822. J. & C. Walker sculpt. It was published according to Act of Parliament at the Hydrographical Office of the Admiralty, 4th March 1828. Scale [ca. 1:153,512]. Covers the Cape Peninsula region, including False Bay and Cape Town, South Africa. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'WGS 1984 UTM 34S' coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows coastal features such as beacons, rocks, channels, points, coves, islands, bottom soil types, anchorage points, and more. Includes also selected land features such as roads, drainage, land cover, selected buildings, towns, and more. Relief shown by contours; depths by soundings. Includes notes, table of heights, and two views. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

SHRIMP Pb/U zircon ages of plutonic rocks from Southwest Indian Ridge

Absolute ages of plutonic rocks from mid-ocean ridges provide important constraints on the scale, timing and rates of oceanic crustal accretion, yet few such rocks have been absolutely dated. We present 206Pb/238U SHRIMP zircon ages from two ODP Drill Holes and a surface sample from Atlantis Bank on the Southwest Indian Ridge. We report ten new sample ages from 26-1430 m in ODP Hole 735B, and one from 57 m in ODP Hole 1105A. Including a previously published age, eleven samples from Hole 735B yield 206Pb/238U zircon crystallization ages that are the same, within error, overlap with the estimated magnetic age and are inferred to date the main period of crustal growth, the average age of analyses is 11.99 ± 0.12 Ma. Any differences in the ages of magmatic series and/or tectonic blocks within Hole 735B are unresolvable and eight well-constrained ages vary from 11.86 ± 0.20 Ma to 12.13 ± 0.21 Ma, a range of 0.27 ± 0.29 Ma, consistent with the duration of crustal accretion observed at the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. An age of 11.87 ± 0.23 Ma from Hole 1105A is within error of ages from Hole 735B and permits previous correlations made between zones of oxide-rich gabbros in each hole. Pb/U zircon ages > 0.5 Ma younger than the magnetic age are recorded in at least three samples from Atlantis Bank, one from Hole 735B and two collected along a fault scarp to the East. These young ages may date one or more off-axis events previously suggested from thermochronologic data and support the interpretation of a complex geological history following crustal accretion at Atlantis Bank. Together with results from the surface of Atlantis Bank, dating has shown that while the majority of Pb/U SHRIMP zircon ages record the short-lived (< 0.5 Ma) phase of crustal accretion on-axis, results from several samples precede and post-date this period by > 1 Ma suggesting a complex and prolonged magmatic/tectonic history for the crust at Atlantis Bank.

Méthodes de Bootstrap pour les modèles à facteurs

Cette thèse développe des méthodes bootstrap pour les modèles à facteurs qui sont couram- ment utilisés pour générer des prévisions depuis l'article pionnier de Stock et Watson (2002) sur les indices de diffusion. Ces modèles tolèrent l'inclusion d'un grand nombre de variables macroéconomiques et financières comme prédicteurs, une caractéristique utile pour inclure di- verses informations disponibles aux agents économiques. Ma thèse propose donc des outils éco- nométriques qui améliorent l'inférence dans les modèles à facteurs utilisant des facteurs latents extraits d'un large panel de prédicteurs observés. Il est subdivisé en trois chapitres complémen- taires dont les deux premiers en collaboration avec Sílvia Gonçalves et Benoit Perron. Dans le premier article, nous étudions comment les méthodes bootstrap peuvent être utilisées pour faire de l'inférence dans les modèles de prévision pour un horizon de h périodes dans le futur. Pour ce faire, il examine l'inférence bootstrap dans un contexte de régression augmentée de facteurs où les erreurs pourraient être autocorrélées. Il généralise les résultats de Gonçalves et Perron (2014) et propose puis justifie deux approches basées sur les résidus : le block wild bootstrap et le dependent wild bootstrap. Nos simulations montrent une amélioration des taux de couverture des intervalles de confiance des coefficients estimés en utilisant ces approches comparativement à la théorie asymptotique et au wild bootstrap en présence de corrélation sérielle dans les erreurs de régression. Le deuxième chapitre propose des méthodes bootstrap pour la construction des intervalles de prévision permettant de relâcher l'hypothèse de normalité des innovations. Nous y propo- sons des intervalles de prédiction bootstrap pour une observation h périodes dans le futur et sa moyenne conditionnelle. Nous supposons que ces prévisions sont faites en utilisant un ensemble de facteurs extraits d'un large panel de variables. Parce que nous traitons ces facteurs comme latents, nos prévisions dépendent à la fois des facteurs estimés et les coefficients de régres- sion estimés. Sous des conditions de régularité, Bai et Ng (2006) ont proposé la construction d'intervalles asymptotiques sous l'hypothèse de Gaussianité des innovations. Le bootstrap nous permet de relâcher cette hypothèse et de construire des intervalles de prédiction valides sous des hypothèses plus générales. En outre, même en supposant la Gaussianité, le bootstrap conduit à des intervalles plus précis dans les cas où la dimension transversale est relativement faible car il prend en considération le biais de l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires comme le montre une étude récente de Gonçalves et Perron (2014). Dans le troisième chapitre, nous suggérons des procédures de sélection convergentes pour les regressions augmentées de facteurs en échantillons finis. Nous démontrons premièrement que la méthode de validation croisée usuelle est non-convergente mais que sa généralisation, la validation croisée «leave-d-out» sélectionne le plus petit ensemble de facteurs estimés pour l'espace généré par les vraies facteurs. Le deuxième critère dont nous montrons également la validité généralise l'approximation bootstrap de Shao (1996) pour les regressions augmentées de facteurs. Les simulations montrent une amélioration de la probabilité de sélectionner par- cimonieusement les facteurs estimés comparativement aux méthodes de sélection disponibles. L'application empirique revisite la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et financiers, et l'excès de rendement sur le marché boursier américain. Parmi les facteurs estimés à partir d'un large panel de données macroéconomiques et financières des États Unis, les facteurs fortement correlés aux écarts de taux d'intérêt et les facteurs de Fama-French ont un bon pouvoir prédictif pour les excès de rendement.

Méthodes de Bootstrap pour les modèles à facteurs

Cette thèse développe des méthodes bootstrap pour les modèles à facteurs qui sont couram- ment utilisés pour générer des prévisions depuis l'article pionnier de Stock et Watson (2002) sur les indices de diffusion. Ces modèles tolèrent l'inclusion d'un grand nombre de variables macroéconomiques et financières comme prédicteurs, une caractéristique utile pour inclure di- verses informations disponibles aux agents économiques. Ma thèse propose donc des outils éco- nométriques qui améliorent l'inférence dans les modèles à facteurs utilisant des facteurs latents extraits d'un large panel de prédicteurs observés. Il est subdivisé en trois chapitres complémen- taires dont les deux premiers en collaboration avec Sílvia Gonçalves et Benoit Perron. Dans le premier article, nous étudions comment les méthodes bootstrap peuvent être utilisées pour faire de l'inférence dans les modèles de prévision pour un horizon de h périodes dans le futur. Pour ce faire, il examine l'inférence bootstrap dans un contexte de régression augmentée de facteurs où les erreurs pourraient être autocorrélées. Il généralise les résultats de Gonçalves et Perron (2014) et propose puis justifie deux approches basées sur les résidus : le block wild bootstrap et le dependent wild bootstrap. Nos simulations montrent une amélioration des taux de couverture des intervalles de confiance des coefficients estimés en utilisant ces approches comparativement à la théorie asymptotique et au wild bootstrap en présence de corrélation sérielle dans les erreurs de régression. Le deuxième chapitre propose des méthodes bootstrap pour la construction des intervalles de prévision permettant de relâcher l'hypothèse de normalité des innovations. Nous y propo- sons des intervalles de prédiction bootstrap pour une observation h périodes dans le futur et sa moyenne conditionnelle. Nous supposons que ces prévisions sont faites en utilisant un ensemble de facteurs extraits d'un large panel de variables. Parce que nous traitons ces facteurs comme latents, nos prévisions dépendent à la fois des facteurs estimés et les coefficients de régres- sion estimés. Sous des conditions de régularité, Bai et Ng (2006) ont proposé la construction d'intervalles asymptotiques sous l'hypothèse de Gaussianité des innovations. Le bootstrap nous permet de relâcher cette hypothèse et de construire des intervalles de prédiction valides sous des hypothèses plus générales. En outre, même en supposant la Gaussianité, le bootstrap conduit à des intervalles plus précis dans les cas où la dimension transversale est relativement faible car il prend en considération le biais de l'estimateur des moindres carrés ordinaires comme le montre une étude récente de Gonçalves et Perron (2014). Dans le troisième chapitre, nous suggérons des procédures de sélection convergentes pour les regressions augmentées de facteurs en échantillons finis. Nous démontrons premièrement que la méthode de validation croisée usuelle est non-convergente mais que sa généralisation, la validation croisée «leave-d-out» sélectionne le plus petit ensemble de facteurs estimés pour l'espace généré par les vraies facteurs. Le deuxième critère dont nous montrons également la validité généralise l'approximation bootstrap de Shao (1996) pour les regressions augmentées de facteurs. Les simulations montrent une amélioration de la probabilité de sélectionner par- cimonieusement les facteurs estimés comparativement aux méthodes de sélection disponibles. L'application empirique revisite la relation entre les facteurs macroéconomiques et financiers, et l'excès de rendement sur le marché boursier américain. Parmi les facteurs estimés à partir d'un large panel de données macroéconomiques et financières des États Unis, les facteurs fortement correlés aux écarts de taux d'intérêt et les facteurs de Fama-French ont un bon pouvoir prédictif pour les excès de rendement.

Essays on mixed-frequency data : forecasting and unit root testing

Doutoramento em Economia

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

Determination Of Detergent And Dispensant Additives In Gasoline By Ring-oven And Near Infrared Hypespectral Imaging.

A method using the ring-oven technique for pre-concentration in filter paper discs and near infrared hyperspectral imaging is proposed to identify four detergent and dispersant additives, and to determine their concentration in gasoline. Different approaches were used to select the best image data processing in order to gather the relevant spectral information. This was attained by selecting the pixels of the region of interest (ROI), using a pre-calculated threshold value of the PCA scores arranged as histograms, to select the spectra set; summing up the selected spectra to achieve representativeness; and compensating for the superimposed filter paper spectral information, also supported by scores histograms for each individual sample. The best classification model was achieved using linear discriminant analysis and genetic algorithm (LDA/GA), whose correct classification rate in the external validation set was 92%. Previous classification of the type of additive present in the gasoline is necessary to define the PLS model required for its quantitative determination. Considering that two of the additives studied present high spectral similarity, a PLS regression model was constructed to predict their content in gasoline, while two additional models were used for the remaining additives. The results for the external validation of these regression models showed a mean percentage error of prediction varying from 5 to 15%.

Estatística aplicada à química: dez dúvidas comuns

Ten common doubts of chemistry students and professionals about their statistical applications are discussed. The use of the N-1 denominator instead of N is described for the standard deviation. The statistical meaning of the denominators of the root mean square error of calibration (RMSEC) and root mean square error of validation (RMSEV) are given for researchers using multivariate calibration methods. The reason why scientists and engineers use the average instead of the median is explained. Several problematic aspects about regression and correlation are treated. The popular use of triplicate experiments in teaching and research laboratories is seen to have its origin in statistical confidence intervals. Nonparametric statistics and bootstrapping methods round out the discussion.

Variabilidade dos indicadores antropométricos e de desempenho físico de jovens futebolistas em função da idade cronológica

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Previsões climáticas sazonais sobre o Brasil: avaliação do RegCM3 aninhado no modelo global CPTEC/COLA

Este trabalho avalia o desempenho de previsões sazonais do modelo climático regional RegCM3, aninhado ao modelo global CPTEC/COLA. As previsões com o RegCM3 utilizaram 60 km de resolução horizontal num domínio que inclui grande parte da América do Sul. As previsões do RegCM3 e CPTEC/COLA foram avaliadas utilizando as análises de chuva e temperatura do ar do Climate Prediction Center (CPC) e National Centers for Enviromental Prediction (NCEP), respectivamente. Entre maio de 2005 e julho de 2007, 27 previsões sazonais de chuva e temperatura do ar (exceto a temperatura do CPTEC/COLA, que possui 26 previsões) foram avaliadas em três regiões do Brasil: Nordeste (NDE), Sudeste (SDE) e Sul (SUL). As previsões do RegCM3 também foram comparadas com as climatologias das análises. De acordo com os índices estatísticos (bias, coeficiente de correlação, raiz quadrada do erro médio quadrático e coeficiente de eficiência), nas três regiões (NDE, SDE e SUL) a chuva sazonal prevista pelo RegCM3 é mais próxima da observada do que a prevista pelo CPTEC/COLA. Além disto, o RegCM3 também é melhor previsor da chuva sazonal do que da média das observações nas três regiões. Para temperatura, as previsões do RegCM3 são superiores às do CPTEC/COLA nas áreas NDE e SUL, enquanto o CPTEC/COLA é superior no SDE. Finalmente, as previsões de chuva e temperatura do RegCM3 são mais próximas das observações do que a climatologia observada. Estes resultados indicam o potencial de utilização do RegCM3 para previsão sazonal, que futuramente deverá ser explorado através de previsão por conjunto.

Ventilation behavior in trained and untrained men during incremental test: evidence of one metabolic transition point

This study aimed to describe and compare the ventilation behavior during an incremental test utilizing three mathematical models and to compare the feature of ventilation curve fitted by the best mathematical model between aerobically trained (TR) and untrained ( UT) men. Thirty five subjects underwent a treadmill test with 1 km.h(-1) increases every minute until exhaustion. Ventilation averages of 20 seconds were plotted against time and fitted by: bi-segmental regression model (2SRM); three-segmental regression model (3SRM); and growth exponential model (GEM). Residual sum of squares (RSS) and mean square error (MSE) were calculated for each model. The correlations between peak VO2 (VO2PEAK), peak speed (Speed(PEAK)), ventilatory threshold identified by the best model (VT2SRM) and the first derivative calculated for workloads below (moderate intensity) and above (heavy intensity) VT2SRM were calculated. The RSS and MSE for GEM were significantly higher (p < 0.01) than for 2SRM and 3SRM in pooled data and in UT, but no significant difference was observed among the mathematical models in TR. In the pooled data, the first derivative of moderate intensities showed significant negative correlations with VT2SRM (r = -0.58; p < 0.01) and Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.46; p < 0.05) while the first derivative of heavy intensities showed significant negative correlation with VT2SRM (r = -0.43; p < 0.05). In UT group the first derivative of moderate intensities showed significant negative correlations with VT2SRM (r = -0.65; p < 0.05) and Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.61; p < 0.05), while the first derivative of heavy intensities showed significant negative correlation with VT2SRM (r= -0.73; p < 0.01), Speed(PEAK) (r = -0.73; p < 0.01) and VO2PEAK (r = -0.61; p < 0.05) in TR group. The ventilation behavior during incremental treadmill test tends to show only one threshold. UT subjects showed a slower ventilation increase during moderate intensities while TR subjects showed a slower ventilation increase during heavy intensities.

Low-frequency Raman spectra and fragility of imidazolium ionic liquids

Raman spectra within the 5-200 cm(-1) range have been recorded as a function of temperature for different ionic liquids based on imidazolium cations. A correlation has been found between fragility and the temperature dependence of the strength of fast relaxational motions. Understanding quasielastic scattering as the relaxational contribution to ionic mean-squared displacement elucidates some effects on ionic liquids' fragility resulting from modifications in the chemical structure. (C) 2010 American Institute of Physics. [doi:10.1063/1.3462962]

Full-dimensional analytical ab initio potential energy surface of the ground state of HOI

Extensive ab initio calculations using a complete active space second-order perturbation theory wavefunction, including scalar and spin-orbit relativistic effects with a quadruple-zeta quality basis set were used to construct an analytical potential energy surface (PES) of the ground state of the [H, O, I] system. A total of 5344 points were fit to a three-dimensional function of the internuclear distances, with a global root-mean-square error of 1.26 kcal mol(-1). The resulting PES describes accurately the main features of this system: the HOI and HIO isomers, the transition state between them, and all dissociation asymptotes. After a small adjustment, using a scaling factor on the internal coordinates of HOI, the frequencies calculated in this work agree with the experimental data available within 10 cm(-1). (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. [doi: 10.1063/1.3615545]