Threshold Autoregressive Model for a Time Series Data

In this paper we try to fit a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to time series data of monthly coconut oil prices at Cochin market. The procedure proposed by Tsay [7] for fitting the TAR model is briefly presented. The fitted model is compared with a simple autoregressive (AR) model. The results are in favour of TAR process. Thus the monthly coconut oil prices exhibit a type of non-linearity which can be accounted for by a threshold model.

Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Return Generating Process: A Macroeconomic Approach to Indian Stock Market

A study focusing on the identification of return generating factors and to the extent of their influence on share prices the outcome will be a tool for investment analysis in the hands of investors portfolio managers and mutual funds who are mostly concerned with changing share prices. Since the study takes into account the influence of macroeconomic variables on variations in share returns by using the outcome the government can frame out suitable policies on long term basis and that will help in nurturing a healthy economy and resultant stock market. As every company management tries to maximize the wealth of the share holders a clear idea about the return generating variables and their influence will help the management to frame various policies to maximize the wealth of the shareholders.

Model Development and Validation for Studying Consumer Preferences of Car Owners

Globalization and liberalization, with the entry of many prominent foreign manufacturers, changed the automobile scenario in India, since early 1990‟s. Manufacturers such as Ford, General Motors, Honda, Toyota, Suzuki, Hyundai, Renault, Mitsubishi, Benz, BMW, Volkswagen and Nissan set up their manufacturing units in India in joint venture with their Indian counterpart companies, by making use of the Foreign Direct Investment policy of the Government of India, These manufacturers started capturing the hearts of Indian car customers with their choice of technological and innovative product features, with quality and reliability. With the multiplicity of choices available to the Indian passenger car buyers, it drastically changed the way the car purchase scenario in India and particularly in the State of Kerala. This transformed the automobile scene from a sellers‟ market to buyers‟ market. Car customers started developing their own personal preferences and purchasing patterns, which were hitherto unknown in the Indian automobile segment. The main purpose of this paper is to come up with the identification of possible parameters and a framework development, that influence the consumer purchase behaviour patterns of passenger car owners in the State of Kerala, so that further research could be done, based on the framework and the identified parameters

Conceptualisation Of Model For Studying Consumer Purchase Behaviour Of Passenger Cars

Automobile Industry in India is influenced by the presence of national and multi-national manufacturers. The presence of many manufacturers and brands in the state provides many choices to the customer. The current market for car manufacturers has been transformed from a monopoly of one or two manufacturers in the seventies to oligopoly of many manufacturers in the current marketing scenario. The main objective of the research paper is to explore and conceptualize various parameters and develop a model, which influence the purchase patterns of passenger cars in the State of Kerala. Thus, the main purpose of this paper is to come up with a model, which shall facilitate further study on the consumer purchase behaviour patterns of passenger car owners in the State of Kerala, India. The author intends to undertake further quantitative analysis to verify and validate the model so developed. The main methods used for this paper are secondary research on available material, depth interview of car dealers, car financing agencies and car owners in the city of Cochin, in Kerala State in India. The depth interviews were conducted with the use of prepared questionnaire for car dealers, car customers and car financing agencies. The findings resulted in the identification of the parameters that influence the consumer purchase behaviour of passenger cars and the formulation of the model, which will be the basis for the further research of the author. The paper will be of tremendous value to the existing and new car manufacturers both indigenous and foreign, to formalize and strategies their policies towards an effective marketing strategy, so as to market their models in the State, which is known for its high literacy, consumerism and higher educational penetration

A New Model For Reliability Centered Maintenance In Petroleum Refineries

Refiners today operate their equipment for prolonged periods without shutdown. This is primarily due to the increased pressures of the market resulting in extended shutdown-to-shutdown intervals. This places extreme demands on the reliability of the plant equipment. The traditional methods of reliability assurance, like Preventive Maintenance, Predictive Maintenance and Condition Based Maintenance become inadequate in the face of such demands. The alternate approaches to reliability improvement, being adopted the world over are implementation of RCFA programs and Reliability Centered Maintenance. However refiners and process plants find it difficult to adopt this standardized methodology of RCM mainly due to the complexity and the large amount of analysis that needs to be done, resulting in a long drawn out implementation, requiring the services of a number of skilled people. These results in either an implementation restricted to only few equipment or alternately, one that is non-standard. The paper presents the current models in use, the core requirements of a standard RCM model, the alternatives to classical RCM, limitations in the existing model, classical RCM and available alternatives to RCM and will then go on to present an ‗Accelerated‘ approach to RCM implementation, that, while ensuring close conformance to the standard, does not place a large burden on the implementers

The empirical study of the price mechanism in the Chinese housing market

In China, the history of the establishment of the private housing market is pretty short. Actually in less then two decades, the market has grown from almost the scratch to playing an important role in the economy. A great achievement! But many problems also exist. They need to be properly addressed and solved. Price problem---simply put, housing price is too high--- is one of them, and this paper is focused on it. Three basic questions are posed, i.e. (1) how to judge the housing affordability? (2) why the housing price is so high? (3) how to solve the housing price problem. The paper pays particular attention to answering the second question. Except the numerous news reports and surveys show that most of the ordinary city dwellers complained about the high housing price, the mathematical means, the four ratios, are applied to judge the housing affordability in Shanghai and Shenzhen. The results are very clear that the price problem is severe. So why? Something is wrong with the price mechanism. This research shows that mainly these five factors contribute to the price problem: the housing reform, the housing development model, the unbalanced housing market, the housing project financing and the poor governmental management. Finally the paper puts forward five suggestions to solve the housing price problem in first-hand private Chinese housing market. They include: the establishment of real estate information system, the creation of specific price management department, the government price regulation, the property tax and the legalization of "cushion money".

Learning achievements of farmers during the transition to market-oriented organic agriculture in rural Uganda

Organic agriculture requires farmers with the ability to develop profitable agro-enterprises on their own. By drawing on four years of experiences with the Enabling Rural Innovation approach in Uganda, we outline how smallholder farmers transition to organic agriculture and, at the same time, increase their entrepreneurial skills and competences through learning. In order to document this learning we operationalised the Kirkpatrick learning evaluation model, which subsequently informed the collection of qualitative data in two study sites. Our analysis suggests that the Enabling Rural Innovation approach helps farmers to develop essential capabilities for identifying organic markets and new organic commodities, for testing these organic commodities under varying organic farm management scenarios, and for negotiating contracts with organic traders. We also observed several obstacles that confront farmers’ transition to organic agriculture when using the Enabling Rural Innovation approach. These include the long duration of agronomic experimentation and seed multiplication, expensive organic certification procedures and the absence of adequate mechanism for farmers to access crop finance services. Despite prevailing obstacles we conclude that the Enabling Rural Innovation approach provides a starting point for farmers to develop entrepreneurial competences and profitable agro-enterprises on their own.

Regional Labor Market Disparities

Regionale Arbeitsmärkte unterscheiden sich erheblich hinsichtlich wesentlicher Kennzahlen wie der Arbeitslosenquote, des Lohnniveaus oder der Beschäftigungsentwicklung. Wegen ihrer Persistenz sind diese Unterschiede von hoher Relevanz für die Politik. Die wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Literatur liefert bereits theoretische Modelle für die Analyse regionaler Arbeitsmärkte. In der Regel sind diese Modelle aber nicht dazu geeignet, regionale Arbeitsmarktunterschiede endogen zu erklären. Das bedeutet, dass sich die Unterschiede regionaler Arbeitsmärkte in der Regel nicht aus den Modellzusammenhängen selbst ergeben, sondern „von außen“ eingebracht werden müssen. Die empirische Literatur liefert Hinweise, dass die Unterschiede zwischen regionalen Arbeitsmärkten auf die Höhe der regionalen Arbeitsnachfrage zurückzuführen sind. Die Arbeitsnachfrage wiederum leitet sich aus den Gütermärkten ab: Es hängt von der Entwicklung der regionalen Gütermärkte ab, wie viele Arbeitskräfte benötigt werden. Daraus folgt, dass die Ursachen für Unterschiede regionaler Arbeitsmärkte in den Unterschieden zwischen den regionalen Gütermärkten zu suchen sind. Letztere werden durch die Literatur zur Neuen Ökonomischen Geographie (NÖG) untersucht. Die Literatur zur NÖG erklärt Unterschiede regionaler Gütermärkte, indem sie zentripetale und zentrifugale Kräfte gegenüberstellt. Zentripetale Kräfte sind solche, welche hin zur Agglomeration ökonomischer Aktivität wirken. Im Zentrum dieser Diskussion steht vor allem das Marktpotenzial: Unternehmen siedeln sich bevorzugt an solchen Standorten an, welche nahe an großen Märkten liegen. Erwerbspersonen wiederum bevorzugen solche Regionen, welche ihnen entsprechende Erwerbsaussichten bieten. Beides zusammen bildet einen sich selbst verstärkenden Prozess, der zur Agglomeration ökonomischer Aktivität führt. Dem stehen jedoch zentrifugale Kräfte gegenüber, welche eine gleichmäßigere Verteilung ökonomischer Aktivität bewirken. Diese entstehen beispielsweise durch immobile Produktionsfaktoren oder Ballungskosten wie etwa Umweltverschmutzung, Staus oder hohe Mietpreise. Sind die zentripetalen Kräfte hinreichend stark, so bilden sich Zentren heraus, in denen sich die ökonomische Aktivität konzentriert, während die Peripherie ausdünnt. In welchem Ausmaß dies geschieht, hängt von dem Verhältnis beider Kräfte ab. Üblicherweise konzentriert sich die Literatur zur NÖG auf Unterschiede zwischen regionalen Gütermärkten und geht von der Annahme perfekter Arbeitsmärkte ohne Arbeitslosigkeit aus. Die Entstehung und Persistenz regionaler Arbeitsmarktunterschiede kann die NÖG daher üblicherweise nicht erklären. An dieser Stelle setzt die Dissertation an. Sie erweitert die NÖG um Friktionen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, um die Entstehung und Persistenz regionaler Arbeitsmarktunterschiede zu erklären. Sie greift dazu auf eine empirische Regelmäßigkeit zurück: Zahlreiche Studien belegen einen negativen Zusammenhang zwischen Lohn und Arbeitslosigkeit. In Regionen, in denen die Arbeitslosigkeit hoch ist, ist das Lohnniveau gering und umgekehrt. Dieser Zusammenhang wird als Lohnkurve bezeichnet. Auf regionaler Ebene lässt sich die Lohnkurve mithilfe der Effizienzlohntheorie erklären, die als theoretische Grundlage in der Dissertation Anwendung findet. Konzentriert sich nun die ökonomische Aktivität aufgrund der zentripetalen Kräfte in einer Region, so ist in diesem Zentrum die Arbeitsnachfrage höher. Damit befindet sich das Zentrum auf einer günstigen Position der Lohnkurve mit geringer Arbeitslosigkeit und hohem Lohnniveau. Umgekehrt findet sich die Peripherie auf einer ungünstigen Position mit hoher Arbeitslosigkeit und geringem Lohnniveau wieder. Allerdings kann sich die Lohnkurve in Abhängigkeit des Agglomerationsgrades verschieben. Das komplexe Zusammenspiel der endogenen Agglomeration mit den Arbeitsmarktfriktionen kann dann unterschiedliche Muster regionaler Arbeitsmarktdisparitäten hervorrufen. Die Dissertation zeigt auf, wie im Zusammenspiel der NÖG mit Effizienzlöhnen regionale Arbeitsmarktdisparitäten hervorgerufen werden. Es werden theoretische Modelle formuliert, die diese Interaktionen erklären und welche die bestehende Literatur durch spezifische Beiträge erweitern. Darüber hinaus werden die zentralen Argumente der Theorie einem empirischen Test unterworfen. Es kann gezeigt werden, dass das zentrale Argument – der positive Effekt des Marktpotentials auf die Arbeitsnachfrage – relevant ist. Außerdem werden Politikimplikationen abgeleitet und der weitere Forschungsbedarf aufgezeigt.

An Electronic Market-Maker

This paper presents an adaptive learning model for market-making under the reinforcement learning framework. Reinforcement learning is a learning technique in which agents aim to maximize the long-term accumulated rewards. No knowledge of the market environment, such as the order arrival or price process, is assumed. Instead, the agent learns from real-time market experience and develops explicit market-making strategies, achieving multiple objectives including the maximizing of profits and minimization of the bid-ask spread. The simulation results show initial success in bringing learning techniques to building market-making algorithms.

Modeling Stock Order Flows and Learning Market-Making from Data

Stock markets employ specialized traders, market-makers, designed to provide liquidity and volume to the market by constantly supplying both supply and demand. In this paper, we demonstrate a novel method for modeling the market as a dynamic system and a reinforcement learning algorithm that learns profitable market-making strategies when run on this model. The sequence of buys and sells for a particular stock, the order flow, we model as an Input-Output Hidden Markov Model fit to historical data. When combined with the dynamics of the order book, this creates a highly non-linear and difficult dynamic system. Our reinforcement learning algorithm, based on likelihood ratios, is run on this partially-observable environment. We demonstrate learning results for two separate real stocks.

Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market.

Porter’s model and exports in Colombia: analysis of two profitable products

Tanto las industrias legales como ilegales tienen líderez y gerentes. Estas personas al mando deben hacer decisiones estrategicas con el fin de asegurar la rentabilidad de sus negocios. La manera en que ellos toman estas decisiones y las consecuencias de estas mismas son las preguntas que este documento pretende resolver. Haciendo una aplicación general del modelo de Michael Porter, este documento analiza y describe brevemente la configuración de ambos mercados (legal e illegal): es decir las maneras de hacer negocios, las tácticas utilizadas para negociar con los proveedores y compradores, las estrategias para resaltar los beneficios de sus productos frente a los sustitutos, y en general las acciones realizadas para competir, obtener un posicionamiento y porción en el mercado total. El objetivo de este documento no es exaltar las estrategias de los líderes en las industrias ilegales, sino resaltar aquello que los directivos en las industrias legales podrían hacer mejor para mejorar el nombre de los productos colombianos en el exterior.

The Bogota – sabana region : the political economy behind the struggle to implement a sustainable urban development model

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Option pricing in market models driven by telegraph processes with jumps

Esta tesis está dividida en dos partes: en la primera parte se presentan y estudian los procesos telegráficos, los procesos de Poisson con compensador telegráfico y los procesos telegráficos con saltos. El estudio presentado en esta primera parte incluye el cálculo de las distribuciones de cada proceso, las medias y varianzas, así como las funciones generadoras de momentos entre otras propiedades. Utilizando estas propiedades en la segunda parte se estudian los modelos de valoración de opciones basados en procesos telegráficos con saltos. En esta parte se da una descripción de cómo calcular las medidas neutrales al riesgo, se encuentra la condición de no arbitraje en este tipo de modelos y por último se calcula el precio de las opciones Europeas de compra y venta.

Labour market, international trade, and unemployment in a less developed country

This paper constructs a trade general equilibrium model for a less developed country with three sectors. One is the informal and un-tradable sector characterized by áexible wages, while the other two sectors are tradable, export and import sectors. The model imposes a binding minimum wage over the unskilled labour and e¢ cient wage distortions on the skilled labour. Comparative statics is driven to analyze the e§ects on the labour market as consequence of opening the economy, raising the minimum wage and the introduction of an augmenting productivity in the export sector.