A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Experimental assessment of sediment burial in eelgrass Zostera marina in Kiel Bight

Seagrass meadows, one of the world's most important and productive coastal habitats, are threatened by a range of anthropogenic actions. Burial of seagrass plants due to coastal activities is one important anthropogenic pressure leading to the decline of local populations. In our study, we assessed the response of eelgrass Zostera marina to sediment burial from physiological, morphological, and population parameters. In a full factorial field experiment, burial level (5-20cm) and burial duration (4-16 weeks) were manipulated. Negative effects were visible even at the lowest burial level (5 cm) and shortest duration (4 weeks), with increasing effects over time and burial level. Buried seagrasses showed higher shoot mortality, delayed growth and flowering and lower carbohydrate storage. The observed effects will likely have an impact on next year's survival of buried plants. Our results have implications for the management of this important coastal plant.

Analysis of Pacific oyster larval proteome and its response to high-CO2

Most calcifying organisms show depressed metabolic, growth and calcification rates as symptoms to high-CO(2) due to ocean acidification (OA) process. Analysis of the global expression pattern of proteins (proteome analysis) represents a powerful tool to examine these physiological symptoms at molecular level, but its applications are inadequate. To address this knowledge gap, 2-DE coupled with mass spectrophotometer was used to compare the global protein expression pattern of oyster larvae exposed to ambient and to high-CO(2). Exposure to OA resulted in marked reduction of global protein expression with a decrease or loss of 71 proteins (18% of the expressed proteins in control), indicating a wide-spread depression of metabolic genes expression in larvae reared under OA. This is, to our knowledge, the first proteome analysis that provides insights into the link between physiological suppression and protein down-regulation under OA in oyster larvae.

Effects of seawater acidification on early development of the intertidal sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus, seawater carbonate chemistry and biological processes

The effect of pH ranging from 8.0 to 6.8 (total scale - pHT) on fertilization, cleavage and larval development until pluteus stage was assessed in an intertidal temperate sea urchin. Gametes were obtained from adults collected in two contrasting tide pools, one showing a significant nocturnal pH decrease (lowest pHT = 7.4) and another where pH was more stable (lowest pHT = 7.8). The highest pHT at which significant effects on fertilization and cleavage were recorded was 7.6. On the contrary, larval development was only affected below pHT 7.4, a value equal or lower than that reported for several subtidal species. This suggests that sea urchins inhabiting stressful intertidal environments produce offspring that may better resist future ocean acidification. Moreover, at pHT 7.4, the fertilization rate of gametes whose progenitors came from the tide pool with higher pH decrease was significantly higher, indicating a possible acclimatization or adaptation of gametes to pH stress.

Physiological and biochemical characteristics of polar cod (Boreogadus saida) from Kongsfjorden

Seasonality of biomarker baseline levels were studied in polar cod (Boreogadus saida), caught in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard, in April, July, September and December, 2006-2007. Physiological parameters (condition factor, gonado- and hepato-somatic indexes, energy reserves, potential metabolic activity and antifreeze activity) in polar cod were used to interpret the seasonality of potential biomarkers. The highest levels of ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) activity occurred concomitantly with the highest potential metabolic activity in July due to e.g. intense feeding. During pre-spawning, EROD showed significant inhibition and gender differences. Hence, its potential use in environmental monitoring should imply gender differentiation at least during this period. Glutathione S-transferase and catalase activities were stable from April to September, but changed in December suggesting a link to low biological activity. Knowledge of the biomarker baseline levels and their seasonal trends in polar cod is essential for a trustworthy interpretation of forthcoming toxicity data and environmental monitoring in the Arctic.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and hatching rate, malformation rate, metamorphosis rate and shell growth of the Pacific abalone in a laboratory experiment

The hatching process of the Pacific abalone Haliotis discus hannai was prolonged at a pH of 7.6 and pH 7.3, and the embryonic developmental success was reduced. The hatching rate at pH 7.3 was significantly (10.8%) lower than that of the control (pH 8.2). The malformation rates at pH 7.9 and pH 8.2 were less than 20% but were 53.8% and 77.3% at pH 7.6 and pH 7.3, respectively. When newly hatched larvae were incubated for 48 h at pH 7.3, only 2.7% of the larvae settled, while more than 70% of the larvae completed settlement in the other three pH treatments. However, most 24 h old larvae could complete metamorphosis in all four pH treatments. Overall, a 0.3-unit reduction in water pH will produce no negative effect on the early development of the Pacific abalone, but further reduction in pH to the values predicted for seawater by the end of this century will have strong detrimental effects.

Seawater conditions during the experiment in May 2011 at the sampling sites off Vulcano Island

The impacts of ocean acidification on coastal biofilms are poorly understood. Carbon dioxide vent areas provide an opportunity to make predictions about the impacts of ocean acidification. We compared biofilms that colonised glass slides in areas exposed to ambient and elevated levels of pCO2 along a coastal pH gradient, with biofilms grown at ambient and reduced light levels. Biofilm production was highest under ambient light levels, but under both light regimes biofilm production was enhanced in seawater with high pCO2. Uronic acids are a component of biofilms and increased significantly with high pCO2. Bacteria and Eukarya denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis profile analysis showed clear differences in the structures of ambient and reduced light biofilm communities, and biofilms grown at high pCO2 compared with ambient conditions. This study characterises biofilm response to natural seabed CO2 seeps and provides a baseline understanding of how coastal ecosystems may respond to increased pCO2 levels.

Impact of elevated levels of CO2 on animal mediated ecosystem function: The modification of sediment nutrient fluxes by burrowing urchins

A mesocosm experiment was conducted to quantify the relationships between the presence and body size of two burrowing heart urchins (Brissopsis lyrifera and Echinocardium cordatum) and rates of sediment nutrient flux. Furthermore, the impact of seawater acidification on these relationships was determined during this 40-day exposure experiment. Using carbon dioxide (CO2) gas, seawater was acidified to pHNBS 7.6, 7.2 or 6.8. Control treatments were maintained in natural seawater (pH = 8.0). Under normocapnic conditions, burrowing urchins were seen to reduce the sediment uptake of nitrite or nitrate whilst enhancing the release of silicate and phosphate. In acidified (hypercapnic) treatments, the biological control of biogeochemical cycles by urchins was significantly affected, probably through the combined impacts of high CO2 on nitrifying bacteria, benthic algae and urchin behaviour. This study highlights the importance of considering biological interactions when predicting the consequences of seawater acidification on ecosystem function.