919 resultados para Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods


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OBJECTIVE: To assess, in myocardium specimens obtained from necropsies, the correlation between the concentration of hydroxyproline, measured with the photocolorimetric method, and the intensity of fibrosis, determined with the morphometric method. METHODS: Left ventricle myocardium samples were obtained from 45 patients who had undergone necropsy, some of them with a variety of cardiopathies and others without any heart disease. The concentrations of hydroxyproline were determined with the photocolorimetric method. In the histologic sections from each heart, the myocardial fibrosis was quantified by using a light microscope with an integrating ocular lens. RESULTS: A median of, respectively, 4.5 and 4.3 mug of hydroxyproline/mg of dry weight was found in fixed and nonfixed left ventricle myocardium fragments. A positive correlation occurred between the hydroxyproline concentrations and the intensity of fibrosis, both in the fixed (Sr=+0.25; p=0.099) and in the nonfixed (Sr=+0.32; p=0.03) specimens. CONCLUSION: The biochemical methodology was proven to be adequate, and manual morphometry was shown to have limitations that may interfere with the statistical significance of correlations for the estimate of fibrosis intensity in the human myocardium.

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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of the turbidimetric method of C-reactive protein (CRP) as a measure of low-grade inflammation in patients admitted with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS). METHODS: Serum samples obtained at hospital arrival from 68 patients (66±11 years, 40 men), admitted with unstable angina or non-ST elevation acute myocardial infarction were used to measure CRP by the methods of nephelometry and turbidimetry. RESULTS: The medians of C-reactive protein by the turbidimetric and nephelometric methods were 0.5 mg/dL and 0.47 mg/dL, respectively. A strong linear association existed between the 2 methods, according to the regression coefficient (b=0.75; 95% C.I.=0.70-0.80) and correlation coefficient (r=0.96; P<0.001). The mean difference between the nephelometric and turbidimetric CRP was 0.02 ± 0.91 mg/dL, and 100% agreement between the methods in the detection of high CRP was observed. CONCLUSION: In patients with non-ST elevation ACS, CRP values obtained by turbidimetry show a strong linear association with the method of nephelometry and perfect agreement in the detection of high CRP.

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Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2011

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We model the joint production of entrepreneurs and workers where the former provide both entrepreneurial (strategic) and managerial (coordination, motivation) services, and management services are shared with individual workers in an output maximizing way. The static equilibrium of the model determines the endogenous share of entrepreneurs in the economy in a given moment of time. The time dynamics of the solution implies that a given growth rate in quality of entrepreneurial services contributes to productivity growth proportionally to the share of entrepreneurs at the start of the period and improvement in quality of entrepreneurial services is convergence enhancing. Model predictions are tested with data from OECD countries in the period 1970-2002. We find that improvements in quality of entrepreneurial services over time explain up to 100% of observed average productivity growth in these countries.

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The technique of sentinel lymph node (SLN) dissection is a reliable predictor of metastatic disease in the lymphatic basin draining the primary melanoma. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is emerging as a highly sensitive technique to detect micrometastases in SLNs, but its specificity has been questioned. A prospective SLN study in melanoma patients was undertaken to compare in detail immunopathological versus molecular detection methods. Sentinel lymphadenectomy was performed on 57 patients, with a total of 71 SLNs analysed. SLNs were cut in slices, which were alternatively subjected to parallel multimarker analysis by microscopy (haematoxylin and eosin and immunohistochemistry for HMB-45, S100, tyrosinase and Melan-A/MART-1) and RT-PCR (for tyrosinase and Melan-A/MART-1). Metastases were detected by both methods in 23% of the SLNs (28% of the patients). The combined use of Melan-A/MART-1 and tyrosinase amplification increased the sensitivity of PCR detection of microscopically proven micrometastases. Of the 55 immunopathologically negative SLNs, 25 were found to be positive on RT-PCR. Notably, eight of these SLNs contained naevi, all of which were positive for tyrosinase and/or Melan-A/MART-1, as detected at both mRNA and protein level. The remaining 41% of the SLNs were negative on both immunohistochemistry and RT-PCR. Analysis of a series of adjacent non-SLNs by RT-PCR confirmed the concept of orderly progression of metastasis. Clinical follow-up showed disease recurrence in 12% of the RT-PCR-positive immunopathology-negative SLNs, indicating that even an extensive immunohistochemical analysis may underestimate the presence of micrometastases. However, molecular analyses, albeit more sensitive, need to be further improved in order to attain acceptable specificity before they can be applied diagnostically.

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When Bank of England (and the Federal Reserve Board) introduced their quantitative easing (QE) operations they emphasised the effects on money and credit, but much of their empirical research on the effects of QE focuses on long-term interest rates. We use a flow of funds matrix with an independent central bank to show the implications of QE and other monetary developments, and argue that the financial crisis, the fiscal expansion and QE are likely to have constituted major exogenous shocks to money and credit in the UK which could not be digested immediately by the usual adjustment mechanisms. We present regressions of a reduced form model which considers the growth of nominal spending as determined by the growth of nominal money and other variables. These results suggest that money was not important during the Great Moderation but has had a much larger role in the period of the crisis and QE. We then use these estimates to illustrate the effects of the financial crisis and QE. We conclude that it would be useful to incorporate money and/or credit in wider macroeconometric models of the UK economy.

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This article describes the composition of fingermark residue as being a complex system with numerous compounds coming from different sources and evolving over time from the initial composition (corresponding to the composition right after deposition) to the aged composition (corresponding to the evolution of the initial composition over time). This complex system will additionally vary due to effects of numerous influence factors grouped in five different classes: the donor characteristics, the deposition conditions, the substrate nature, the environmental conditions and the applied enhancement techniques. The initial and aged compositions as well as the influence factors are thus considered in this article to provide a qualitative and quantitative review of all compounds identified in fingermark residue up to now. The analytical techniques used to obtain these data are also enumerated. This review highlights the fact that despite the numerous analytical processes that have already been proposed and tested to elucidate fingermark composition, advanced knowledge is still missing. Thus, there is a real need to conduct future research on the composition of fingermark residue, focusing particularly on quantitative measurements, aging kinetics and effects of influence factors. The results of future research are particularly important for advances in fingermark enhancement and dating technique developments.

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An hemodialysis population in Central Brazil was screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serological methods to assess the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate associated risk factors. All hemodialysis patients (n=428) were interviewed in eight dialysis units in Goiânia city. Blood samples were collected and serum samples screened for anti-HCV antibodies by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Positive samples were retested for confirmation with a line immunoassay (LIA). All samples were also tested for HCV RNA by the PCR. An overall prevalence of 46.7% (CI 95%: 42-51.5) was found, ranging from 20.7% (CI 95%: 8.8-38.1) to 90.4% (CI 95%: 79.9-96.4) depending on the dialysis unit. Of the 428 patients, 185 were found to be seropositive by ELISA, and 167 were confirmed positive by LIA, resulting in an anti-HCV prevalence of 39%. A total of 131 patients were HCV RNA-positive. HCV viremia was present in 63.5% of the anti-HCV-positive patients and in 10.3% of the anti-HCV-negative patients. Univariate analysis of risk factors showed that the number of previous blood transfusions, transfusion of blood before mandatory screening for anti-HCV, length of time on hemodialysis, and treatment in multiple units were associated with HCV positivity. However, multivariate analysis revealed that blood transfusion before screening for anti-HCV and length of time on hemodialysis were significantly associated with HCV infection in this population. These data suggest that nosocomial transmission may play a role in the spread of HCV in the dialysis units studied. In addition to anti-HCV screening, HCV RNA detection is necessary for the diagnosis of HCV infection in hemodialysis patients.

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A field survey on schistosomiais was carried out in 1998, in the municipality of Pedro de Toledo, a low endemic area in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. According to the parasitologic Kato-Katz method, the prevalence rate was 1.6%, with an infection intensity of 40.9 eggs per gram of stool. By the immunofluorescence test (IFT) for detection of IgG and IgM antibodies in the serum, IgG-IFT and IgM-IFT, respectively, prevalence indices of 33.2% and 33.5% were observed. To assess the impact of the schistosomiasis control program in the area, parasitologic and serologic data obtained in 1998, analyzed according to the age, sex, and residence zone, were compared to previous data obtained in a epidemiologic study carried out in 1980, when prevalence indices were of 22.8% and 55.5%, respectively by Kato-Katz and IgG-IFT. A significant fall of the prevalence was observed, indicating that the control measures were effective. Nonetheless, residual transmission was observed, demonstrating the need for a joint effort to include new approaches for better understanding the real situation and improving the control of the disease in low endemic areas.

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Background: The imatinib trough plasma concentration (C(min)) correlates with clinical response in cancer patients. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of plasma C(min) is therefore suggested. In practice, however, blood sampling for TDM is often not performed at trough. The corresponding measurement is thus only remotely informative about C(min) exposure. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to improve the interpretation of randomly measured concentrations by using a Bayesian approach for the prediction of C(min), incorporating correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters, and to compare the predictive performance of this method with alternative approaches, by comparing predictions with actual measured trough levels, and with predictions obtained by a reference method, respectively. Methods: A Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method accounting for correlation (MAP-ρ) between pharmacokinetic parameters was developed on the basis of a population pharmacokinetic model, which was validated on external data. Thirty-one paired random and trough levels, observed in gastrointestinal stromal tumour patients, were then used for the evaluation of the Bayesian MAP-ρ method: individual C(min) predictions, derived from single random observations, were compared with actual measured trough levels for assessment of predictive performance (accuracy and precision). The method was also compared with alternative approaches: classical Bayesian MAP estimation assuming uncorrelated pharmacokinetic parameters, linear extrapolation along the typical elimination constant of imatinib, and non-linear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) first-order conditional estimation (FOCE) with interaction. Predictions of all methods were finally compared with 'best-possible' predictions obtained by a reference method (NONMEM FOCE, using both random and trough observations for individual C(min) prediction). Results: The developed Bayesian MAP-ρ method accounting for correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters allowed non-biased prediction of imatinib C(min) with a precision of ±30.7%. This predictive performance was similar for the alternative methods that were applied. The range of relative prediction errors was, however, smallest for the Bayesian MAP-ρ method and largest for the linear extrapolation method. When compared with the reference method, predictive performance was comparable for all methods. The time interval between random and trough sampling did not influence the precision of Bayesian MAP-ρ predictions. Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib plasma concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian TDM. Classical Bayesian MAP estimation can be applied even without consideration of the correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters. Individual C(min) predictions are expected to vary less through Bayesian TDM than linear extrapolation. Bayesian TDM could be developed in the future for other targeted anticancer drugs and for the prediction of other pharmacokinetic parameters that have been correlated with clinical outcomes.