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Cover title.

Navy Center for Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence.

Cover title.

A machine learning approach to intraday trading on foreign exchange markets

Foreign Exchange trading has emerged in recent times as a significant activity in many countries. As with most forms of trading, the activity is influenced by many random parameters so that the creation of a system that effectively emulates the trading process will be very helpful. In this paper we try to create such a system using Machine learning approach to emulate trader behaviour on the Foreign Exchange market and to find the most profitable trading strategy.

Blood type classification using computer vision and machine learning

In emergency situations, where time for blood transfusion is reduced, the O negative blood type (the universal donor) is administrated. However, sometimes even the universal donor can cause transfusion reactions that can be fatal to the patient. As commercial systems do not allow fast results and are not suitable for emergency situations, this paper presents the steps considered for the development and validation of a prototype, able to determine blood type compatibilities, even in emergency situations. Thus it is possible, using the developed system, to administer a compatible blood type, since the first blood unit transfused. In order to increase the system’s reliability, this prototype uses different approaches to classify blood types, the first of which is based on Decision Trees and the second one based on support vector machines. The features used to evaluate these classifiers are the standard deviation values, histogram, Histogram of Oriented Gradients and fast Fourier transform, computed on different regions of interest. The main characteristics of the presented prototype are small size, lightweight, easy transportation, ease of use, fast results, high reliability and low cost. These features are perfectly suited for emergency scenarios, where the prototype is expected to be used.

Curvature-driven smoothing: a learning algorithm for feed-forward networks

The performance of feed-forward neural networks in real applications can be often be improved significantly if use is made of a-priori information. For interpolation problems this prior knowledge frequently includes smoothness requirements on the network mapping, and can be imposed by the addition to the error function of suitable regularization terms. The new error function, however, now depends on the derivatives of the network mapping, and so the standard back-propagation algorithm cannot be applied. In this paper, we derive a computationally efficient learning algorithm, for a feed-forward network of arbitrary topology, which can be used to minimize the new error function. Networks having a single hidden layer, for which the learning algorithm simplifies, are treated as a special case.

Dynamics of on-line learning in radial basis function networks

On-line learning is examined for the radial basis function network, an important and practical type of neural network. The evolution of generalization error is calculated within a framework which allows the phenomena of the learning process, such as the specialization of the hidden units, to be analyzed. The distinct stages of training are elucidated, and the role of the learning rate described. The three most important stages of training, the symmetric phase, the symmetry-breaking phase, and the convergence phase, are analyzed in detail; the convergence phase analysis allows derivation of maximal and optimal learning rates. As well as finding the evolution of the mean system parameters, the variances of these parameters are derived and shown to be typically small. Finally, the analytic results are strongly confirmed by simulations.

On-line learning in radial basis functions networks

An analytic investigation of the average case learning and generalization properties of Radial Basis Function Networks (RBFs) is presented, utilising on-line gradient descent as the learning rule. The analytic method employed allows both the calculation of generalization error and the examination of the internal dynamics of the network. The generalization error and internal dynamics are then used to examine the role of the learning rate and the specialization of the hidden units, which gives insight into decreasing the time required for training. The realizable and over-realizable cases are studied in detail; the phase of learning in which the hidden units are unspecialized (symmetric phase) and the phase in which asymptotic convergence occurs are analyzed, and their typical properties found. Finally, simulations are performed which strongly confirm the analytic results.

Globally optimal learning rates in multilayer neural networks

A method for calculating the globally optimal learning rate in on-line gradient-descent training of multilayer neural networks is presented. The method is based on a variational approach which maximizes the decrease in generalization error over a given time frame. We demonstrate the method by computing optimal learning rates in typical learning scenarios. The method can also be employed when different learning rates are allowed for different parameter vectors as well as to determine the relevance of related training algorithms based on modifications to the basic gradient descent rule.

Knowledge based improvement:simulation and artificial intelligence for identifying and improving human decision-making in an operations systems

The performance of most operations systems is significantly affected by the interaction of human decision-makers. A methodology, based on the use of visual interactive simulation (VIS) and artificial intelligence (AI), is described that aims to identify and improve human decision-making in operations systems. The methodology, known as 'knowledge-based improvement' (KBI), elicits knowledge from a decision-maker via a VIS and then uses AI methods to represent decision-making. By linking the VIS and AI representation, it is possible to predict the performance of the operations system under different decision-making strategies and to search for improved strategies. The KBI methodology is applied to the decision-making surrounding unplanned maintenance operations at a Ford Motor Company engine assembly plant.

Visual data mining: integrating machine learning with information visualization

Today, the data available to tackle many scientific challenges is vast in quantity and diverse in nature. The exploration of heterogeneous information spaces requires suitable mining algorithms as well as effective visual interfaces. Most existing systems concentrate either on mining algorithms or on visualization techniques. Though visual methods developed in information visualization have been helpful, for improved understanding of a complex large high-dimensional dataset, there is a need for an effective projection of such a dataset onto a lower-dimension (2D or 3D) manifold. This paper introduces a flexible visual data mining framework which combines advanced projection algorithms developed in the machine learning domain and visual techniques developed in the information visualization domain. The framework follows Shneiderman’s mantra to provide an effective user interface. The advantage of such an interface is that the user is directly involved in the data mining process. We integrate principled projection methods, such as Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) and Hierarchical GTM (HGTM), with powerful visual techniques, such as magnification factors, directional curvatures, parallel coordinates, billboarding, and user interaction facilities, to provide an integrated visual data mining framework. Results on a real life high-dimensional dataset from the chemoinformatics domain are also reported and discussed. Projection results of GTM are analytically compared with the projection results from other traditional projection methods, and it is also shown that the HGTM algorithm provides additional value for large datasets. The computational complexity of these algorithms is discussed to demonstrate their suitability for the visual data mining framework.

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