A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.

Turning up the Heat on Admissions: A Study of the Impacts of Extreme Heat Events on Tasmanian Hospital Admissions 2003-2010

Introduction: Extreme heat events (both heat waves and extremely hot days) are increasing in frequency and duration globally and cause more deaths in Australia than any other extreme weather event. Numerous studies have demonstrated a link between extreme heat events and an increased risk of morbidity and death. In this study, the researchers sought to identify if extreme heat events in the Tasmanian population were associated with any changes in emergency department admissions to the Royal Hobart Hospital (RHH) for the period 2003-2010. Methods: Non-identifiable RHH emergency department data and climate data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology were obtained for the period 2003-2010. Statistical analyses were conducted using the computer statistical computer software ���R��� with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) package used to fit a quassi-Poisson generalised linear regression model. Results: This study showed that RR of admission to RHH during 2003-2010 was significant over temperatures of 24 C with a lag effect lasting 12 days and main effect noted one day after the extreme heat event. Discussion: This study demonstrated that extreme heat events have a significant impact on public hospital admissions. Two limitations were identified: admissions data rather than presentations data were used and further analysis could be done to compare types of admissions and presentations between heat and non-heat events. Conclusion: With the impacts of climate change already being felt in Australia, public health organisations in Tasmania and the rest of Australia need to implement adaptation strategies to enhance resilience to protect the public from the adverse health effects of heat events and climate change.

Major Cellular and Physiological Impacts of Ocean Acidification on a Reef Building Coral

As atmospheric levels of CO2 increase, reef-building corals are under greater stress from both increased sea surface temperatures and declining sea water pH. To date, most studies have focused on either coral bleaching due to warming oceans or declining calcification due to decreasing oceanic carbonate ion concentrations. Here, through the use of physiology measurements and cDNA microarrays, we show that changes in pH and ocean chemistry consistent with two scenarios put forward by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) drive major changes in gene expression, respiration, photosynthesis and symbiosis of the coral, Acropora millepora, before affects on biomineralisation are apparent at the phenotype level. Under high CO2 conditions corals at the phenotype level lost over half their Symbiodinium populations, and had a decrease in both photosynthesis and respiration. Changes in gene expression were consistent with metabolic suppression, an increase in oxidative stress, apoptosis and symbiont loss. Other expression patterns demonstrate upregulation of membrane transporters, as well as the regulation of genes involved in membrane cytoskeletal interactions and cytoskeletal remodeling. These widespread changes in gene expression emphasize the need to expand future studies of ocean acidification to include a wider spectrum of cellular processes, many of which may occur before impacts on calcification.

Interacting effects of vegetation, soils and management on the sensitivity of Australian savanna rangelands to climate change

There is an increasing need to understand what makes vegetation at some locations more sensitive to climate change than others. For savanna rangelands, this requires building knowledge of how forage production in different land types will respond to climate change, and identifying how location-specific land type characteristics, climate and land management control the magnitude and direction of its responses to change. Here, a simulation analysis is used to explore how forage production in 14 land types of the north-eastern Australian rangelands responds to three climate change scenarios of +3A degrees C, +17% rainfall; +2A degrees C, -7% rainfall; and +3A degrees C, -46% rainfall. Our results demonstrate that the controls on forage production responses are complex, with functional characteristics of land types interacting to determine the magnitude and direction of change. Forage production may increase by up to 60% or decrease by up to 90% in response to the extreme scenarios of change. The magnitude of these responses is dependent on whether forage production is water or nitrogen (N) limited, and how climate changes influence these limiting conditions. Forage production responds most to changes in temperature and moisture availability in land types that are water-limited, and shows the least amount of change when growth is restricted by N availability. The fertilisation effects of doubled atmospheric CO2 were found to offset declines in forage production under 2A degrees C warming and a 7% reduction in rainfall. However, rising tree densities and declining land condition are shown to reduce potential opportunities from increases in forage production and raise the sensitivity of pastures to climate-induced water stress. Knowledge of these interactions can be applied in engaging with stakeholders to identify adaptation options.

Feasibility of assimilating ASCAT surface winds into a Limited Area Model

Sea-surface wind observations of previous generation scatterometers have been successfully assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Impact studies conducted with these assimilation implementations have shown a distinct improvement to model analysis and forecast accuracies. The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), flown on Metop-A, offers an improved sea-surface wind accuracy and better data coverage when compared to the previous generation scatterometers. Five individual case studies are carried out. The effect of including ASCAT data into High Resolution Limited Area Model (HIRLAM) assimilation system (4D-Var) is tested to be neutral-positive for situations with general flow direction from the Atlantic Ocean. For northerly flow regimes the effect is negative. This is later discussed to be caused by problems involving modeling northern flows, and also due to the lack of a suitable verification method. Suggestions and an example of an improved verification method is presented later on. A closer examination of a polar low evolution is also shown. It is found that the ASCAT assimilation scheme improves forecast of the initial evolution of the polar low, but the model advects the strong low pressure centre too fast eastward. Finally, the flaws of the implementation are found small and implementing the ASCAT assimilation scheme into the operational HIRLAM suite is feasible, but longer time period validation is still required.

Drought adaptation of stay-green sorghum is associated with canopy development, leaf anatomy, root growth, and water uptake

Stay-green sorghum plants exhibit greener leaves and stems during the grain-filling period under water-limited conditions compared with their senescent counterparts, resulting in increased grain yield, grain mass, and lodging resistance. Stay-green has been mapped to a number of key chromosomal regions, including Stg1, Stg2, Stg3, and Stg4, but the functions of these individual quantitative trait loci (QTLs) remain unclear. The objective of this study was to show how positive effects of Stg QTLs on grain yield under drought can be explained as emergent consequences of their effects on temporal and spatial water-use patterns that result from changes in leaf-area dynamics. A set of four Stg near-isogenic lines (NILs) and their recurrent parent were grown in a range of field and semicontrolled experiments in southeast Queensland, Australia. These studies showed that the four Stg QTLs regulate canopy size by: (1) reducing tillering via increased size of lower leaves, (2) constraining the size of the upper leaves; and (3) in some cases, decreasing the number of leaves per culm. In addition, they variously affect leaf anatomy and root growth. The multiple pathways by which Stg QTLs modulate canopy development can result in considerable developmental plasticity. The reduction in canopy size associated with Stg QTLs reduced pre-flowering water demand, thereby increasing water availability during grain filling and, ultimately, grain yield. The generic physiological mechanisms underlying the stay-green trait suggest that similar Stg QTLs could enhance post-anthesis drought adaptation in other major cereals such as maize, wheat, and rice.

Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Sustainable grazing management for temporal and spatial variability in north Australian rangelands ��� a synthesis of the latest evidence and recommendations

Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable grazing management in northern Australia, with management often complicated further by large, spatially-heterogeneous paddocks. This paper presents the latest grazing research and associated bio-economic modelling from northern Australia and assesses the extent to which current recommendations to manage for these issues are supported. Overall, stocking around the safe long-term carrying capacity will maintain land condition and maximise long-term profitability. However, stocking rates should be varied in a risk-averse manner as pasture availability varies between years. Periodic wet-season spelling is also essential to maintain pasture condition and allow recovery of overgrazed areas. Uneven grazing distributions can be partially managed through fencing, providing additional water-points and in some cases patch-burning, although the economics of infrastructure development are extremely context-dependent. Overall, complex multi-paddock grazing systems do not appear justified in northern Australia. Provided the key management principles outlined above are applied in an active, adaptive manner, acceptable economic and environmental outcomes will be achieved irrespective of the grazing system applied.

Ground cover management alters development of Fusarium wilt symptoms in Ducasse bananas

Many banana producing regions around the world experience climate variability as a result of seasonal rainfall and temperature conditions, which result in sub-optimal conditions for banana production. This can create periods of plant stress which impact on plant growth, development and yields. Furthermore, diseases such as Fusarium wilt caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense, can become more predominant following periods of environmental stress, particularly for many culturally significant cultivars such as Ducasse (synonym Pisang Awak) (Musa ABB). The aim of this experiment was to determine if expression of symptoms of Fusarium wilt of bananas in a susceptible cultivar could be explained by environmental conditions, and if soil management could reduce the impact of the disease and increase production. An experiment was established in an abandoned commercial field of Ducasse bananas with a high incidence of Fusarium wilt. Vegetated ground cover was maintained around the base of banana plants and compared with plants grown in bare soil for changes in growth, production and disease symptoms. Expression of Fusarium wilt was found to be a function of water stress potential and the heat unit requirement for bananas. The inclusion of vegetative ground cover around the base of the banana plants significantly reduced the severity and incidence of Fusarium wilt by 20 % and altered the periods of symptom development. The growth of bananas and development of the bunch followed the accumulated heat units, with a greater number of bunched plants evident during warmer periods of the year. The weight of bunches harvested in a second crop cycle was increased when banana plants were grown in areas with vegetative ground cover, with fewer losses of plants due to Fusarium wilt.

Stay-green alleles individually enhance grain yield in sorghum under drought by modifying canopy development and water uptake patterns

* Stay-green is an integrated drought adaptation trait characterized by a distinct green leaf phenotype during grain filling under terminal drought. We used sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), a repository of drought adaptation mechanisms, to elucidate the physiological and genetic mechanisms underpinning stay-green. * Near-isogenic sorghum lines (cv RTx7000) were characterized in a series of field and managed-environment trials (seven experiments and 14 environments) to determine the influence of four individual stay-green (Stg1���4) quantitative trait loci (QTLs) on canopy development, water use and grain yield under post-anthesis drought. * The Stg QTL decreased tillering and the size of upper leaves, which reduced canopy size at anthesis. This reduction in transpirational leaf area conserved soil water before anthesis for use during grain filling. Increased water uptake during grain filling of Stg near-isogenic lines (NILs) relative to RTx7000 resulted in higher post-anthesis biomass production, grain number and yield. Importantly, there was no consistent yield penalty associated with the Stg QTL in the irrigated control. * These results establish a link between the role of the Stg QTL in modifying canopy development and the subsequent impact on crop water use patterns and grain yield under terminal drought.

Large-scale characterization of drought pattern: a continent-wide modelling approach applied to the Australian wheatbelt ��� spatial and temporal trends

* Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. * Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123��yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. * Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. * Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates.

Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia

Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia���s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901���2007), and two emission scenarios (���low��� and ���high��� CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from ���5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from ���5 to ���30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North���south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.