Cenários de impacto de uma eventual pandemia de gripe na população portuguesa : morbilidade, mortalidade e necessidade de cuidados de saúde

RESUMO - Introdução — O presente estudo descreve os cenários de impacto que uma eventual pandemia de gripe poderá ter na população portuguesa e nos serviços de saúde. Trata-se de uma versão actualizada dos cenários preliminares que têm vindo a ser elaborados e discutidos desde 2005. Material e métodos — Os cenários assumem que a pandemia ocorrerá em duas ondas das quais a primeira (taxa de ataque: 10%) será menos intensa do que a segunda (taxas de ataque: 20%, 25% ou 30%). Neste trabalho são descritos apenas os cenários respeitantes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global = 10% + 30%). A elaboração dos cenários utilizou o método proposto por Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. e Fukuda, K. (1999) mas com quase todos os parâmetros adaptados à população portuguesa. Esta adaptação incidiu sobre: 1. duração da pandemia; 2. taxa de letalidade; 3. percentagem da população com risco elevado de complicações; 4. percentagem de doentes com suspeita de gripe que procurará consulta; 5. tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a procura de cuidados; 6. percentagem de doentes que terá acesso efectivo a antiviral; 7. taxa de hospitalização por gripe e tempo médio de hospitalização; 8. percentagem de doentes hospitalizados que necessitarão de cuidados intensivos (CI) e tempo de internamento em CI; 9. efectividade de oseltamivir para evitar complicações e morte. Resultados — Os cenários correspondentes à situação mais grave (taxa de ataque global: 10% + 30%) são apresentados sem qualquer intervenção e, também, com utilização de oseltamivir para fins terapêuticos. Os resultados sem intervenção para o cenário «provável» indicam: • número total de casos — 4 142 447; • número total de indivíduos a necessitar de consulta — 5 799 426; • número total de hospitalizações — 113 712; • número total de internamentos em cuidados intensivos — 17 057; • número total de óbitos — 32 051; • número total de óbitos, nas semanas com valor máximo — 1.a onda: 2551, 2.a onda: 7651. Quando os cenários foram simulados entrando em linha de conta com a utilização de oseltamivir (considerando uma efectividade de 10% e 30%), verificou-se uma redução dos valores dos óbitos e hospitalizações calculados. O presente artigo também apresenta a distribuição semanal, no período de desenvolvimento da pandemia, dos vários resultados obtidos. Discussão — Os resultados apresentados devem ser interpretados como «cenários» e não como «previsões». De facto, as incertezas existentes em relação à doença e ao seu agente não permitem prever com rigor suficiente os seus impactos sobre a população e sobre os serviços de saúde. Por isso, os cenários agora apresentados servem, sobretudo, para fins de planeamento. Assim, a preparação da resposta à eventual pandemia pode ser apoiada em valores cujas ordens de grandeza correspondem às situações de mais elevada gravidade. Desta forma, a sua utilização para outros fins é inadequada e é vivamente desencorajada pelos autores.

Clinical Epidemiology of Buruli ulcer from Benin (2005-2013): effect of time-delay to diagnosis on clinical forms and severe phenotypes

Buruli Ulcer (BU) is a neglected infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans that is responsible for severe necrotizing cutaneous lesions that may be associated with bone involvement. Clinical presentations of BU lesions are classically classified as papules, nodules, plaques and edematous infiltration, ulcer or osteomyelitis. Within these different clinical forms, lesions can be further classified as severe forms based on focality (multiple lesions), lesions' size (>15 cm diameter) or WHO Category (WHO Category 3 lesions). There are studies reporting an association between delay in seeking medical care and the development of ulcerative forms of BU or osteomyelitis, but the effect of time-delay on the emergence of lesions classified as severe has not been addressed. To address both issues, and in a cohort of laboratory-confirmed BU cases, 476 patients from a medical center in Allada, Benin, were studied. In this laboratory-confirmed cohort, we validated previous observations, demonstrating that time-delay is statistically related to the clinical form of BU. Indeed, for non-ulcerated forms (nodule, edema, and plaque) the median time-delay was 32.5 days (IQR 30.0-67.5), while for ulcerated forms it was 60 days (IQR 20.0-120.0) (p = 0.009), and for bone lesions, 365 days (IQR 228.0-548.0). On the other hand, we show here that time-delay is not associated with the more severe phenotypes of BU, such as multi-focal lesions (median 90 days; IQR 56-217.5; p = 0.09), larger lesions (diameter >15 cm) (median 60 days; IQR 30-120; p = 0.92) or category 3 WHO classification (median 60 days; IQR 30-150; p = 0.20), when compared with unifocal (median 60 days; IQR 30-90), small lesions (diameter =15 cm) (median 60 days; IQR 30-90), or WHO category 1+2 lesions (median 60 days; IQR 30-90), respectively. Our results demonstrate that after an initial period of progression towards ulceration or bone involvement, BU lesions become stable regarding size and focal/multi-focal progression. Therefore, in future studies on BU epidemiology, severe clinical forms should be systematically considered as distinct phenotypes of the same disease and thus subjected to specific risk factor investigation.

O quotidiano do hospital de S. Marcos de Braga na Idade Moderna

Instituição administrada pela Misericórdia de Braga desde meados do século XVI, o hospital de S. Marcos tornou-se ao longo da Idade Moderna um importante local de tratamento ao corpo e de salvação da alma para doentes pobres, recebendo enfermos de todo o arcebispado, mas também de outras partes do reino e mesmo do estrangeiro. Os cuidados prestados ao corpo e à alma exigiam equipas de trabalho, a aquisição de bens e uma administração que fizesse cumprir as regras existentes. O nosso estudo procurará analisar as relações de sociabilidade existentes no interior do hospital, a aquisição de bens, nomeadamente para as enfermarias, a cozinha e a igreja, a alimentação dos enfermos, os cuidados médicos e a caridade dispensada a quem estava doente e era pobre. Pretende-se dar a conhecer o funcionamento e as vivências de uma instituição que, progressivamente, foi ocupando um lugar cada vez mais importante na cidade.

Segmentação do tecido tumoral cerebral em imagens de ressonância magnética

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Eletrónica Médica)

Treating the entire person

[Excerpt] A critical case from a Portuguese hospital reveals how the ultimate healthcare customer, the patient, is a complete system, not a jumble of parts. (...) The lean production philosophy has made inroads into service sectors, including medical care in the United Kingdom and the United States. Unfortunately, numerous medical organizations in those two countries and the rest of the world treat patients like they are made up of parts, not as a whole system. This leads to disjointed handoffs, bottlenecks in information flow that delay treatment, and sending the patient back and forth from department to department. The following case in Portugal shows how most of the world’s health systems still suffer from functional silos and how waste is all over the place. In this case, the missing links in communication between doctors, nurses, auxiliary staff, the patient and her family led to the patient’s death. Adopting lean healthcare with its proven tools would be a solution to many of the problems described. When a patient dies in a hospital, the family often is told that the doctors did everything they could. Normally, that is the case, as healthcare providers – doctors, nurses, auxiliary staff, therapists – do their best with the system they have.

A intervenção precoce: uma aliada dos cuidados de saúde prestados nas Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos Neonatais?

Dissertação de mestrado em Educação Especial (área de especialização em Intervenção Precoce)

Healthcare-Associated Infective Endocarditis: a Case Series in a Referral Hospital from 2006 to 2011

Background: Healthcare-associated infective endocarditis (HCA-IE), a severe complication of medical care, shows a growing incidence in literature. Objective: To evaluate epidemiology, etiology, risk factors for acquisition, complications, surgical treatment, and outcome of HCA-IE. Methods: Observational prospective case series study (2006-2011) in a public hospital in Rio de Janeiro. Results: Fifty-three patients with HCA-IE from a total of 151 cases of infective endocarditis (IE) were included. There were 26 (49%) males (mean age of 47 ± 18.7 years), 27 (51%) females (mean age of 42 ± 20.1 years). IE was acute in 37 (70%) cases and subacute in 16 (30%) cases. The mitral valve was affected in 19 (36%) patients and the aortic valve in 12 (36%); prosthetic valves were affected in 23 (43%) patients and native valves in 30 (57%). Deep intravenous access was used in 43 (81%) cases. Negative blood cultures were observed in 11 (21%) patients, Enterococcus faecalis in 10 (19%), Staphylococcus aureus in 9 (17%), and Candida sp. in 7 (13%). Fever was present in 49 (92%) patients, splenomegaly in 12 (23%), new regurgitation murmur in 31 (58%), and elevated C-reactive protein in 44/53 (83%). Echocardiograms showed major criteria in 46 (87%) patients, and 34 (64%) patients were submitted to cardiac surgery. Overall mortality was 17/53 (32%). Conclusion: In Brazil HCA-IE affected young subjects. Patients with prosthetic and native valves were affected in a similar proportion, and non-cardiac surgery was an infrequent predisposing factor, whereas intravenous access was a common one. S. aureus was significantly frequent in native valve HCA-IE, and overall mortality was high.

Focused Cardiac Ultrasound Using a Pocket-Size Device in the Emergency Room

Background:Cardiovascular urgencies are frequent reasons for seeking medical care. Prompt and accurate medical diagnosis is critical to reduce the morbidity and mortality of these conditions.Objective:To evaluate the use of a pocket-size echocardiography in addition to clinical history and physical exam in a tertiary medical emergency care.Methods:One hundred adult patients without known cardiac or lung diseases who sought emergency care with cardiac complaints were included. Patients with ischemic changes in the electrocardiography or fever were excluded. A focused echocardiography with GE Vscan equipment was performed after the initial evaluation in the emergency room. Cardiac chambers dimensions, left and right ventricular systolic function, intracardiac flows with color, pericardium, and aorta were evaluated.Results:The mean age was 61 ± 17 years old. The patient complaint was chest pain in 51 patients, dyspnea in 32 patients, arrhythmia to evaluate the left ventricular function in ten patients, hypotension/dizziness in five patients and edema in one patient. In 28 patients, the focused echocardiography allowed to confirm the initial diagnosis: 19 patients with heart failure, five with acute coronary syndrome, two with pulmonary embolism and two patients with cardiac tamponade. In 17 patients, the echocardiography changed the diagnosis: ten with suspicious of heart failure, two with pulmonary embolism suspicious, two with hypotension without cause, one suspicious of acute coronary syndrome, one of cardiac tamponade and one of aortic dissection.Conclusion:The focused echocardiography with pocket-size equipment in the emergency care may allow a prompt diagnosis and, consequently, an earlier initiation of the therapy.

Dispositius handheld per a aplicacions mèdiques: disseny i implementació d'interfícies del protocol Start

Els sistemes dʼatenció mèdica en situacions de pèrdues humanes massives necessiten classificar un número molt elevat de víctimes en un temps limitat i amb pocs recursos disponibles. Els mètodes clàssics es basen en una etiqueta de triatge de paper on el personal dʼemergències anota lʼestat del pacient juntament amb una quantitat reduïda dʼinformació. En aquest projecte descrivim lʼanàlisi, disseny i implementació dʼinterfícies gràfiques per dispositius mòbils pel protocol de triatge START, per ser utilitzades pels equips dʼemergència. Els components del projecte inclouen un dispositiu portàtil Nokia N810 amb connexió GPS, i IDBlue, un lector dʼetiquetes RFID per Bluetooth.

Cardiopathies congénitales de l'âge adulte: nouvelle population de patients, prise en charge multidisciplinaire [Adults with congenital heart diseases: a growing population, a multidisciplinary approach].

Untill recently, congenital heart disease was considered as a childhood's disease. With improvement in pediatric survival, adults with a congenital heart disease (ACHD) represent an emerging group of patients who need specialized medical care. In 2010, the ESC published newguidelines on global and specific management of adults with congenital heart disease. ACHD centers organize appropriate medical care for these patients, promote specialist training and national scientific research in collaboration with other national ACHD centers.

Antibody-mediated status epilepticus: a retrospective multicenter survey.

Background: In recent years, an increasing number of auto-antibodies (AB) have been detected in the CSF and serum of patients with new onset epilepsy. Some of these patients develop convulsive or nonconvulsive status epilepticus (AB-SE), necessitating intensive medical care and administration of multiple antiepileptic and immunomodulatory treatments of uncertain effectiveness. Objectives: In this retrospective multicenter survey we aimed to determine the spectrum of gravity, the duration and the prognosis of the disorder. In addition, we sought to identify the antibodies associated with this condition, as well as determine whether there is a most effective treatment regime. Methods: 12 European Neurology University Clinics, with extensive experience in the treatment of SE patients, were sent a detailed questionnaire regarding symptoms and treatment of AB-SE patients. Seven centers responded positively, providing a total of 13 patients above the age of 16. Results: AB-SE affects mainly women (12/13, 92%) with a variable age at onset (17-69 years, median: 25 years). The duration of the disease is also variable (10 days to 12 years, median: 2 months). Only the 3 oldest patients died (55-69 years). Most patients were diagnosed with anti NMDAR encephalitis (8/13) and had oligoclonal bands in the CSF (9/13). No specific treatment regimen (antiepileptic, immunomodulatory) was found to be clearly superior. Most of the surviving 10 patients (77%) recovered completely or nearly so within 2 years of index poststatus. Conclusion: AB-SE is a severe but potentially reversible condition. Long duration does not seem to imply fatal outcome; however, age older than 50 years at time of onset appears to be a risk factor for death. There was no evidence for an optimal antiepileptic or immunomodulatory treatment. A prospective multicenter study is warranted in order to stratify the optimal treatment algorithm, determine clear risk factors of unfavorable outcome and long-term prognosis.

Response to the discussion paper on proposed Health Information Bill

The Institute of Public Health in Ireland is an all-island body which aims to improve health in Ireland by working to combat health inequalities and influence public policies in favour of health. The Institute promotes North-South co-operation in research, training, information and policy. The Institute commends the Department of Health and Children for producing the Discussion Paper on Proposed Health Information Bill (June 2008) and welcomes the opportunity to comment on it. The first objective of the Health Information: A National Strategy (2004) is to support the implementation of Quality and Fairness: A Health System for You (2001).The National Health Goals - such as ‘Better health for everyone’, ‘Fair access’ and ‘Responsive and appropriate care delivery’ - are expressed in terms of the health of the public as well as patients. The Discussion Paper focuses on personal information, and the data flows within the health system, that are needed to enhance medical care and maximise patient safety. The Institute believes that the Health Information Bill should also aim to more fully support the achievement of the National Health Goals and the public health function. This requires the development of more integrated information systems that link the healthcare sector and other sectors. Assessment of health services performance - in terms of the public’s health, health inequalities and achievement of the National Health Goals - require such information systems. They will enable the construction of public health key performance indicators for the healthcare services.

Quality Assurance Standards for Symptomatic Breast Disease Services

Quality Assurance Standards for Symptomatic Breast Disease Services People in Ireland have a right to expect that medical care be of good quality. They expect that standards of care are consistently high. They expect that access to care is easy, speedy, effective and efficient. Society expects quality of care to measure up to international norms of good practice. Such assurance can be given by auditing the quality of activity. Click here to download PDF 606kb

Das Holprinzip in der Pädiatrie und Neonatologie [The collecting principle in pediatrics and neonatology]

Quality medical care during transport of critically ill pediatric and neonatal patients is only possible if the referring hospital and the regional center cooperate closely. The experience of physicians and nurses involved is of great importance, and the choice of the transporting team should depend on the medical status of the patient and the skills of the physicians and nurses or paramedics. Critically ill children and neonates should be transported by specialized teams. Our statistics from the last 12 years show an increasing number of transports, with the majority of patients being referred from peripheral hospitals.

Chagas disease: current epidemiological trends after the interruption of vectorial and transfusional transmission in the Southern Cone countries

Chagas disease, named after Carlos Chagas who first described it in 1909, exists only on the American Continent. It is caused by a parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, transmitted to humans by blood-sucking triatomine bugs and by blood transfusion. Chagas disease has two successive phases, acute and chronic. The acute phase lasts 6 to 8 weeks. After several years of starting the chronic phase, 20% to 35% of the infected individuals, depending on the geographical area will develop irreversible lesions of the autonomous nervous system in the heart, esophagus, colon and the peripheral nervous system. Data on the prevalence and distribution of Chagas disease improved in quality during the 1980's as a result of the demographically representative cross-sectional studies carried out in countries where accurate information was not available. A group of experts met in Brasília in 1979 and devised standard protocols to carry out countrywide prevalence studies on human T. cruzi infection and triatomine house infestation. Thanks to a coordinated multi-country program in the Southern Cone countries the transmission of Chagas disease by vectors and by blood transfusion has been interrupted in Uruguay in1997, in Chile in 1999, and in 8 of the 12 endemic states of Brazil in 2000 and so the incidence of new infections by T. cruzi in the whole continent has decreased by 70%. Similar control multi-country initiatives have been launched in the Andean countries and in Central America and rapid progress has been recorded to ensure the interruption of the transmission of Chagas disease by 2005 as requested by a Resolution of the World Health Assembly approved in 1998. The cost-benefit analysis of the investments of the vector control program in Brazil indicate that there are savings of US$17 in medical care and disabilities for each dollar spent on prevention, showing that the program is a health investment with good return. Since the inception in 1979 of the Steering Committee on Chagas Disease of the Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases of the World Health Organization (TDR), the objective was set to promote and finance research aimed at the development of new methods and tools to control this disease. The well known research institutions in Latin America were the key elements of a world wide network of laboratories that received - on a competitive basis - financial support for projects in line with the priorities established. It is presented the time line of the different milestones that were answering successively and logically the outstanding scientific questions identified by the Scientific Working Group in 1978 and that influenced the development and industrial production of practical solutions for diagnosis of the infection and disease control.