Poverty Dynamics: Empirical Evidence for Canada (Working Paper 29)

Poverty (low income) dynamics are explored using tax filer data covering the period 1992 to 1996. The distributions of short-and long-term episodes are identified, and reveal substantial differences by sex and family type. Entry and exit models explore the relationships between poverty transitions and sex, family status and other personal and situational attributes. Duration effects on exiting and re-entering poverty are found to be important, and models including past poverty experiences point to strong "occurrence dependence" for poverty entry and incidence. Fixed-effect panel data models confirm the above, and reveal asymmetries in the impacts of household transitions on poverty.

The Mass of Kepler-93b and The Composition of Terrestrial Planets

Kepler-93b is a 1.478 ± 0.019 R ⊕ planet with a4.7 day period around a bright (V = 10.2), astroseismicallycharacterized host star with a mass of 0.911 ± 0.033 M⊙ and a radius of 0.919 ± 0.011 R⊙. Based on 86 radial velocity observations obtainedwith the HARPS-N spectrograph on the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo and 32archival Keck/HIRES observations, we present a precise mass estimate of4.02 ± 0.68 M ⊕. The corresponding high densityof 6.88 ± 1.18 g cm-3 is consistent with a rockycomposition of primarily iron and magnesium silicate. We compareKepler-93b to other dense planets with well-constrained parameters andfind that between 1 and 6 M ⊕, all dense planetsincluding the Earth and Venus are well-described by the same fixed ratioof iron to magnesium silicate. There are as of yet no examples of suchplanets with masses >6 M ⊕. All known planets inthis mass regime have lower densities requiring significant fractions ofvolatiles or H/He gas. We also constrain the mass and period of theouter companion in the Kepler-93 system from the long-term radialvelocity trend and archival adaptive optics images. As the sample ofdense planets with well-constrained masses and radii continues to grow,we will be able to test whether the fixed compositional model found forthe seven dense planets considered in this paper extends to the fullpopulation of 1-6 M ⊕ planets.Based on observations made with the Italian Telescopio Nazionale Galileo(TNG) operated on the island of La Palma by the Fundación GalileoGalilei of the INAF (Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica) at the SpanishObservatorio del Roque de los Muchachos of the Instituto de Astrofisicade Canarias.

From Cash to Electronic Payments: Microeconomic, Macroeconomic, and Policy Aspects of Retail Payment Systems

This dissertation explores three aspects of the economics and policy issues surrounding retail payments (low-value frequent payments): the microeconomic aspect, by measuring costs associated with retail payment instruments; the macroeconomic aspect, by quantifying the impact of the use of electronic rather than paper-based payment instruments on consumption and GDP; and the policy aspect, by identifying barriers that keep countries stuck with outdated payment systems, and recommending policy interventions to move forward with payments modernization. Payment system modernization has become a prominent part of the financial sector reform agenda in many advanced and developing countries. Greater use of electronic payments rather than cash and other paper-based instruments would have important economic and social benefits, including lower costs and thereby increased economic efficiency and higher incomes, while broadening access to the financial system, notably for people with moderate and low incomes. The dissertation starts with a general introduction on retail payments. Chapter 1 develops a theoretical model for measuring payments costs, and applies the model to Guyana—an emerging market in the midst of the transition from paper to electronic payments. Using primary survey data from Guyanese consumers, the results of the analysis indicate that annual costs related to the use of cash by consumers reach 2.5 percent of the country’s GDP. Switching to electronic payment instruments would provide savings amounting to 1 percent of GDP per year. Chapter 2 broadens the analysis to calculate the macroeconomic impacts of a move to electronic payments. Using a unique panel dataset of 76 countries across the 17-year span from 1998 to 2014 and a pooled OLS country fixed effects model, Chapter 2 finds that on average, use of debit and credit cards contribute USD 16.2 billion to annual global consumption, and USD 160 billion to overall annual global GDP. Chapter 3 provides an in-depth assessment of the Albanian payment cards and remittances market and recommends a set of incentives and regulations (both carrots and sticks) that would allow the country to modernize its payment system. Finally, the conclusion summarizes the lessons of the dissertation’s research and brings forward issues to be explored by future research in the retail payments area.

Attitudes towards risk in financial decision making

Doutoramento em Gestão

A divulgação de informação do governo societário e o seu efeito no mercado de capitais. Evidência no PSI20 - Euronext Lisbon

Dissertação de Mestrado, Finanças Empresariais, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Prevalence of preterm labor in Iran: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Preterm labor, which defines as live-birth delivery before 37 weeks of gestation is a main determinant of neonatal morbidity and mortality around the world. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of preterm labor in Iran by a meta-analysis study, to be as a final measure for policy makers in this field. Materials and Methods: In this meta-analysis, the databases of Thomson database (Web of Knowledge), PubMed/Medline, Science Direct, Scopus, Google Scholar, Iranmedex, Scientific Information Database (SID), Magiran, and Medlib were searched for articles in English and Persian language published between 1995 and 2014. Among the studies with regard to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 14 studies (out of 1370 publications) were selected. Data were analyzed by using Stata software version 11. The heterogeneity of reported prevalence among studies was evaluated by the Chi-square based Q test and I2 statistics. Results: The results of Chi-square based on Q test and I2 statistics revealed severe heterogeneity (Q=2505.12, p-value < 0.001 and I2= 99.5%) and consequently, the random effect model was used for the meta-analysis. Based on the random effect model, the overall estimated prevalence of preterm in Iran was 9.2% (95% CI: 7.6 – 10.7). Conclusion: Present study summarized the results of previous studies and provided a comprehensive view about the preterm delivery in Iran. In order to achieve a more desirable level and its reduction in the coming years, identifying affecting factor and interventional and preventive actions seem necessary.

Comparação de métodos para ajuste de modelos de semivariograma da precipitação pluvial anual.

Comumente dados de precipitação pluvial apresentam variação e a obtenção da estimativa de sua distribuição espacial é primordial no planejamento agrícola e ambiental. O objetivo neste trabalho foi comparar o método de estimação dos mínimos quadrados ponderados para ajuste de modelos ao semivariograma com o método de tentativa e erro, através da técnica de auto-validação "jack-knifing", para dados de precipitação pluvial média anual do Estado de São Paulo. Observações de precipitação correspondentes ao período de 1957 a 1997 foram usadas para trezentos e setenta e nove (379) estações pluviométricas abrangendo todo o Estado de São Paulo, representando uma área de aproximadamente 248.808,8 km². A periodicidade exibida pelos semivariogramas foi ajustada pelo modelo "hole effect", em que os parâmetros foram estimados com maior precisão pelo método de mínimos quadrados ponderados quando comparado com o método de tentativa e erro. O método de auto-validação "jack-knifing" mostrou-se adequado para a definição de métodos e modelos a serem usados para semivariâncias, cujo procedimento permitiu definir dezesseis vizinhos como o número ideal para a estimativa por krigagem de valores de precipitação pluvial para locais não amostrados no Estado de São Paulo.

Consistent estimation of the fixed effects ordered logit model

The paper considers panel data methods for estimating ordered logit models with individual-specific correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We show that a popular approach is inconsistent, whereas some consistent and efficient estimators are available, including minimum distance and generalized method-of-moment estimators. A Monte Carlo study reveals the good properties of an alternative estimator that has not been considered in econometric applications before, is simple to implement and almost as efficient. An illustrative application based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel confirms the large negative effect of unemployment on life satisfaction that has been found in the previous literature.

Identification and estimation of thresholds in the fixed effects ordered logit model

This paper proposes a new estimator for the fixed effects ordered logit model. In contrast to existing methods, the new procedure allows estimating the thresholds. The empirical relevance and simplicity of implementation is illustrated in an application on the effect of unemployment on life satisfaction.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949-2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing observation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14 °C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.

Effect of amniotic membrane transplantation on corneal healing and proteoglycan expression in an experimental model of limbal deficiency in rabbits

PURPOSE. Amniotic membrane transplantation (AMT) has been used as a graft or as a dressing in ocular surface reconstruction, facilitating epithelization, maintaining normal epithelial phenotype, and reducing inflammation, vascularization, and scarring. The corneal transparency is due, at least in part, to the arrangement in orthogonal lamellae of collagen fibrils, surrounded by proteoglycans (PGs). These PGs regulate fibrilogenesis, the matrix assembly, and ultimately the corneal transparency. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of AMT upon the corneal PGs after severe limbal injury.METHODS. Experiments were performed on the right corneas of 22 New Zealand female albino rabbits, and their left corneas were used as matched controls. These animals were divided into 3 groups: G1 (n = 10): total peritomy and keratolimbectomy, followed by application of 0.5 M NaOH; G2 (n = 10): submitted to the same trauma as G1, and treated by AMT; G3: no trauma, only AMT (n = 2). The right corneas of G2 and G3 were covered by DMSO 4 cryopreserved human amniotic membrane, fixed by interrupted 9-0 mononylon sutures, with its stromal face toward the ocular surface. After 7 or 30 days, the corneas were removed and PGs were extracted.RESULTS. Normal corneas contained approximately 9 mg of PGs per gram of dry tissue. AMT on intact cornea (G3) did not cause any changes in the concentration of PGs. In contrast, injured corneas contained much less PGs, both on the seventh and on the 30th day posttrauma. The PG concentration was even lower in injured corneas treated by AMT. This decrease was due almost exclusively to dermatan sulfate PGs, and the structure of dermatan sulfate was also modified, indicating changes in the biosynthesis patterns.CONCLUSIONS. Although beneficial effects have been observed on clinical observation and concentration of soluble proteins after AMT, the normal PG composition of cornea was not attained, even 30 days postinjury, indicating that the normal ocular surface reconstruction, if possible, is a long-term process. (Eur J Ophthalmol 2010; 20: 290-9)

Effect of a frictional force on the Fermi-Ulam model

The dynamical properties of a classical particle bouncing between two rigid walls, in the presence of a drag force, are studied for the case where one wall is fixed and the other one moves periodically in time. The system is described in terms of a two-dimensional nonlinear map obtained by solution of the relevant differential equations. It is shown that the structure of the KAM curves and the chaotic sea is destroyed as the drag force is introduced. At high energy, the velocity of the particle decreases linearly with increasing iteration number, but with a small superimposed sinusoidal modulation. If the motion passes near enough to a fixed point, the particle approaches it exponentially as the iteration number evolves, with a speed of approach that depends on the strength of the drag force. For a simplified version of the model it is shown that, at low energies corresponding to the region of the chaotic sea in the non-dissipative model, the particle wanders in a chaotic transient that depends on the strength of the drag coefficient. However, the KAM islands survive in the presence of dissipation. It is confirmed that the fixed points and periodic orbits go over smoothly into the orbits of the well-known (non-dissipative) Fermi-Ulam model as the drag force goes to zero.

Effect of veneering material on the deformation suffered by implant-supported fixed prosthesis framework

The aim of this study was to evaluate the deformation suffered by cantilevered implant-supported fixed prostheses frameworks cast in silver-palladium alloy and coated with two occlusal veneering materials: acrylic resin or porcelain. Material and Methods: Two strain gauges were bonded to the inferior surface of the silver-palladium framework and two other were bonded to the occlusal surface of the prosthesis framework covered with ceramic and acrylic resin on each of its two halves. The framework was fixed to a metallic master model and a 35.2 N compression force was applied to the cantilever at 10, 15 and 20 mm from the most distal implant. The measurements of deformation by compression and tension were obtained. The statistical 2-way ANOVA test was used for individual analysis of the experiment variables and the Tukey test was used for the interrelation between all the variables (material and distance of force application). Results: The results showed that both variables had influence on the studied factors (deformation by compression and tension). Conclusion: The ceramic coating provided greater rigidity to the assembly and therefore less distortion compared with the uncoated framework and with the resin-coated framework. The cantilever arm length also influenced the prosthesis rigidity, causing higher deformation the farther the load was applied from the last implant.

A model of road effect using line integrals and a test of the performance of two new road indices using the distribution of small mammals in an Atlantic Forest landscape

Effects of roads on wildlife and its habitat have been measured using metrics, such as the nearest road distance, road density, and effective mesh size. In this work we introduce two new indices: (1) Integral Road Effect (IRE), which measured the sum effects of points in a road at a fixed point in the forest; and (2) Average Value of the Infinitesimal Road Effect (AVIRE), which measured the average of the effects of roads at this point. IRE is formally defined as the line integral of a special function (the infinitesimal road effect) along the curves that model the roads, whereas AVIRE is the quotient of IRE by the length of the roads. Combining tools of ArcGIS software with a numerical algorithm, we calculated these and other road and habitat cover indices in a sample of points in a human-modified landscape in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, where data on the abundance of two groups of small mammals (forest specialists and habitat generalists) were collected in the field. We then compared through the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) a set of candidate regression models to explain the variation in small mammal abundance, including models with our two new road indices (AVIRE and IRE) or models with other road effect indices (nearest road distance, mesh size, and road density), and reference models (containing only habitat indices, or only the intercept without the effect of any variable). Compared to other road effect indices, AVIRE showed the best performance to explain abundance of forest specialist species, whereas the nearest road distance obtained the best performance to generalist species. AVIRE and habitat together were included in the best model for both small mammal groups, that is, higher abundance of specialist and generalist small mammals occurred where there is lower average road effect (less AVIRE) and more habitat. Moreover, AVIRE was not significantly correlated with habitat cover of specialists and generalists differing from the other road effect indices, except mesh size, which allows for separating the effect of roads from the effect of habitat on small mammal communities. We suggest that the proposed indices and GIS procedures could also be useful to describe other spatial ecological phenomena, such as edge effect in habitat fragments. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of axon counts in a rat model of glaucoma: comparison of fixed-pattern sampling with targeted sampling

Full axon counting of optic nerve cross-sections represents the most accurate method to quantify axonal damage, but such analysis is very labour intensive. Recently, a new method has been developed, termed targeted sampling, which combines the salient features of a grading scheme with axon counting. Preliminary findings revealed the method compared favourably with random sampling. The aim of the current study was to advance our understanding of the effect of sampling patterns on axon counts by comparing estimated axon counts from targeted sampling with those obtained from fixed-pattern sampling in a large collection of optic nerves with different severities of axonal injury.