Rainfall estimation by rain gauge-radar combination: a concurrent multiplicative-additive approach

A procedure (concurrent multiplicative-additive objective analysis scheme [CMA-OAS]) is proposed for operational rainfall estimation using rain gauges and radar data. On the basis of a concurrent multiplicative-additive (CMA) decomposition of the spatially nonuniform radar bias, within-storm variability of rainfall and fractional coverage of rainfall are taken into account. Thus both spatially nonuniform radar bias, given that rainfall is detected, and bias in radar detection of rainfall are handled. The interpolation procedure of CMA-OAS is built on Barnes' objective analysis scheme (OAS), whose purpose is to estimate a filtered spatial field of the variable of interest through a successive correction of residuals resulting from a Gaussian kernel smoother applied on spatial samples. The CMA-OAS, first, poses an optimization problem at each gauge-radar support point to obtain both a local multiplicative-additive radar bias decomposition and a regionalization parameter. Second, local biases and regionalization parameters are integrated into an OAS to estimate the multisensor rainfall at the ground level. The procedure is suited to relatively sparse rain gauge networks. To show the procedure, six storms are analyzed at hourly steps over 10,663 km2. Results generally indicated an improved quality with respect to other methods evaluated: a standard mean-field bias adjustment, a spatially variable adjustment with multiplicative factors, and ordinary cokriging.

Agroforestry: integrating apple and arable production as an approach to reducing copper use in organic and low-input apple production

Integrating top fruit production into an agroforestry system, where trees are integrated with arable crop production may have a beneficial effect on the control of plant pathogens such as scab (Venturia inaequalis). Apple yields and pest and disease levels were assessed in a novel apple/arable agroforestry system in Suffolk, and compared with a modern local organic orchard in 2012. Despite 2012 being a very bad year for apple production in the UK, apple yields in the agroforestry system appeared to be comparable with standard figures when scaled up from 2.5% land area under apple production to 100% apples, and even at just 2.5% cover, outperformed the organic orchard used for comparison. Initial indications are that scab levels were over twice as high in the organic orchard than in the agroforestry, indicating that this approach may offer some potential in reducing copper use in organic apple production. However, further research will be required to confirm these early results.

ReadingAct RGB-D action dataset and human action recognition from local features

For general home monitoring, a system should automatically interpret people’s actions. The system should be non-intrusive, and able to deal with a cluttered background, and loose clothes. An approach based on spatio-temporal local features and a Bag-of-Words (BoW) model is proposed for single-person action recognition from combined intensity and depth images. To restore the temporal structure lost in the traditional BoW method, a dynamic time alignment technique with temporal binning is applied in this work, which has not been previously implemented in the literature for human action recognition on depth imagery. A novel human action dataset with depth data has been created using two Microsoft Kinect sensors. The ReadingAct dataset contains 20 subjects and 19 actions for a total of 2340 videos. To investigate the effect of using depth images and the proposed method, testing was conducted on three depth datasets, and the proposed method was compared to traditional Bag-of-Words methods. Results showed that the proposed method improves recognition accuracy when adding depth to the conventional intensity data, and has advantages when dealing with long actions.

What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

Local adaptation in migrated interior Douglas-fir seedlings is mediated by ectomycorrhizas and other soil factors

Separating edaphic impacts on tree distributions from those of climate and geography is notoriously difficult. Aboveground and belowground factors play important roles, and determining their relative contribution to tree success will greatly assist in refining predictive models and forestry strategies in a changing climate. In a common glasshouse, seedlings of interior Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca) from multiple populations were grown in multiple forest soils. Fungicide was applied to half of the seedlings to separate soil fungal and nonfungal impacts on seedling performance. Soils of varying geographic and climatic distance from seed origin were compared, using a transfer function approach. Seedling height and biomass were optimized following seed transfer into drier soils, whereas survival was optimized when elevation transfer was minimised. Fungicide application reduced ectomycorrhizal root colonization by c. 50%, with treated seedlings exhibiting greater survival but reduced biomass. Local adaptation of Douglas-fir populations to soils was mediated by soil fungi to some extent in 56% of soil origin by response variable combinations. Mediation by edaphic factors in general occurred in 81% of combinations. Soil biota, hitherto unaccounted for in climate models, interacts with biogeography to influence plant ranges in a changing climate.

On identity reformation and local transition: a case from Poland

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore and understand the process of successful introduction of total quality management (TQM) in Poland and the way in which it impacted on identity of Polish managers. Design/methodology/approach – The study is based on a combination of ethnographic research and repertory grid interviews. Findings – The process of TQM introduction and implementation is examined through the application of translation as a model incorporating cultural and socio-economical dimensions in addition to individual and organizational levels that shaped the development of TQM in Poland. It then draws on the idea of fantasy as theorized in Lacanian psychoanalysis in order to incorporate the unconscious element of translation process which is missing from Latour’s theorization and which forms an important aspect of adoption of new technology and the emergence of a new post-transition generation of managers in Poland. The paper argues that a complex combination of contextual factors, amongst them the notion of fantasy shaped the process of translation of TQM to Poland, the identity formation of Polish managers and to the emergence of a new post-transition generation of managers in Poland. Originality/value – This paper contributes to the literature on the post-command transition by illustrating this process through the fantasy of total quality management explored in a specific socio-cultural and geographical context and by combining the idea of Latour’s translation with Lacanian fantasy.

A moving point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially-symmetrical ice sheets

Predicting the evolution of ice sheets requires numerical models able to accurately track the migration of ice sheet continental margins or grounding lines. We introduce a physically based moving point approach for the flow of ice sheets based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly and the waiting time behaviours to be modelled efficiently. A finite difference moving point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (continental radially-symmetrical shallow ice approximation). The scheme, which is inexpensive, is validated by comparing the results with moving-margin exact solutions and steady states. In both cases the scheme is able to track the position of the ice sheet margin with high precision.

A moving-point approach to model shallow ice sheets: a study case with radially symmetrical ice sheets

Predicting the evolution of ice sheets requires numerical models able to accurately track the migration of ice sheet continental margins or grounding lines. We introduce a physically based moving-point approach for the flow of ice sheets based on the conservation of local masses. This allows the ice sheet margins to be tracked explicitly. Our approach is also well suited to capture waiting-time behaviour efficiently. A finite-difference moving-point scheme is derived and applied in a simplified context (continental radially symmetrical shallow ice approximation). The scheme, which is inexpensive, is verified by comparing the results with steady states obtained from an analytic solution and with exact moving-margin transient solutions. In both cases the scheme is able to track the position of the ice sheet margin with high accuracy.

A new method for the characterisation and verification of local spatial predictability for convective scale ensembles

The use of kilometre-scale ensembles in operational forecasting provides new challenges for forecast interpretation and evaluation to account for uncertainty on the convective scale. A new neighbourhood based method is presented for evaluating and characterising the local predictability variations from convective scale ensembles. Spatial scales over which ensemble forecasts agree (agreement scales, S^A) are calculated at each grid point ij, providing a map of the spatial agreement between forecasts. By comparing the average agreement scale obtained from ensemble member pairs (S^A(mm)_ij), with that between members and radar observations (S^A(mo)_ij), this approach allows the location-dependent spatial spread-skill relationship of the ensemble to be assessed. The properties of the agreement scales are demonstrated using an idealised experiment. To demonstrate the methods in an operational context the S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij are calculated for six convective cases run with the Met Office UK Ensemble Prediction System. The S^A(mm)_ij highlight predictability differences between cases, which can be linked to physical processes. Maps of S^A(mm)_ij are found to summarise the spatial predictability in a compact and physically meaningful manner that is useful for forecasting and for model interpretation. Comparison of S^A(mm)_ij and S^A(mo)_ij demonstrates the case-by-case and temporal variability of the spatial spread-skill, which can again be linked to physical processes.

Sparse density estimation on multinomial manifold combining local component analysis

A new sparse kernel density estimator is introduced based on the minimum integrated square error criterion combining local component analysis for the finite mixture model. We start with a Parzen window estimator which has the Gaussian kernels with a common covariance matrix, the local component analysis is initially applied to find the covariance matrix using expectation maximization algorithm. Since the constraint on the mixing coefficients of a finite mixture model is on the multinomial manifold, we then use the well-known Riemannian trust-region algorithm to find the set of sparse mixing coefficients. The first and second order Riemannian geometry of the multinomial manifold are utilized in the Riemannian trust-region algorithm. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with competitive accuracy to existing kernel density estimators.

Horizontal Maxillary Osteotomy Approach for Resection of Juvenile Nasopharyngeal Angiofibroma

Juvenile angiofibroma is a benign fibroangiomatous tumor of relatively rare occurrence, developing most frequently in male adolescents. It has local characteristics of aggressiveness and expansion. The treatment of choice is surgical excision. In this article, the advantages and disadvantages of the surgical technique using the Le Fort I osteotomy are described, and the literature correlated with 2 case reports.

Beyond the average: Detecting global singular nodes from local features in complex networks

Deviations from the average can provide valuable insights about the organization of natural systems. The present article extends this important principle to the systematic identification and analysis of singular motifs in complex networks. Six measurements quantifying different and complementary features of the connectivity around each node of a network were calculated, and multivariate statistical methods applied to identify singular nodes. The potential of the presented concepts and methodology was illustrated with respect to different types of complex real-world networks, namely the US air transportation network, the protein-protein interactions of the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and the Roget thesaurus networks. The obtained singular motifs possessed unique functional roles in the networks. Three classic theoretical network models were also investigated, with the Barabasi-Albert model resulting in singular motifs corresponding to hubs, confirming the potential of the approach. Interestingly, the number of different types of singular node motifs as well as the number of their instances were found to be considerably higher in the real-world networks than in any of the benchmark networks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2009

Solid state NMR as a new approach for the structural characterization of rare-earth doped lead lanthanum zirconate titanate laser ceramics

To facilitate the design of laser host materials with optimized emission properties, detailed structural information at the atomic level is essential, regarding the local bonding environment of the active ions (distribution over distinct lattice sites) and their extent of local clustering as well as their population distribution over separate micro- or nanophases. The present study explores the potential of solid state NMR spectroscopy to provide such understanding for rare-earth doped lead lanthanum zirconate titanate (PLZT) ceramics. As the NMR signals of the paramagnetic dopant species cannot be observed directly, two complementary approaches are utilized: (1) direct observation of diamagnetic mimics using Sc-45 NMR and (2) study of the paramagnetic interaction of the constituent host lattice nuclei with the rare-earth dopant, using Pb-207 NMR lineshape analysis. Sc-45 MAS NMR spectra of scandium-doped PLZT samples unambiguously reveal scandium to be six-coordinated, suggesting that this rare-earth ion substitutes in the B site. Static Pb-207 spin echo NMR spectra of a series of Tm-doped PLZT samples reveal a clear influence of paramagnetic rare-earth dopant concentration on the NMR lineshape. In the latter case high-fidelity spectra can be obtained by spin echo mapping under systematic incrementation of the excitation frequency, benefiting from the signal-to-noise enhancement afforded by spin echo train Fourier transforms. Consistent with XRD data, the Pb-207 NMR lineshape analysis suggests that statistical incorporation into the PLZT lattice occurs at dopant levels of up to 1 wt.% Tm3+, while at higher levels the solubility limit is reached. (C) 2008 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A game theoretical approach to the evolution of structured communication codes

Structured meaning-signal mappings, i.e., mappings that preserve neighborhood relationships by associating similar signals with similar meanings, are advantageous in an environment where signals are corrupted by noise and sub-optimal meaning inferences are rewarded as well. The evolution of these mappings, however, cannot be explained within a traditional language evolutionary game scenario in which individuals meet randomly because the evolutionary dynamics is trapped in local maxima that do not reflect the structure of the meaning and signal spaces. Here we use a simple game theoretical model to show analytically that when individuals adopting the same communication code meet more frequently than individuals using different codes-a result of the spatial organization of the population-then advantageous linguistic innovations can spread and take over the population. In addition, we report results of simulations in which an individual can communicate only with its K nearest neighbors and show that the probability that the lineage of a mutant that uses a more efficient communication code becomes fixed decreases exponentially with increasing K. These findings support the mother tongue hypothesis that human language evolved as a communication system used among kin, especially between mothers and offspring.

Inference and local influence assessment in skew-normal null intercept measurement error model

In this article, we discuss inferential aspects of the measurement error regression models with null intercepts when the unknown quantity x (latent variable) follows a skew normal distribution. We examine first the maximum-likelihood approach to estimation via the EM algorithm by exploring statistical properties of the model considered. Then, the marginal likelihood, the score function and the observed information matrix of the observed quantities are presented allowing direct inference implementation. In order to discuss some diagnostics techniques in this type of models, we derive the appropriate matrices to assessing the local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. The results and methods developed in this paper are illustrated considering part of a real data set used by Hadgu and Koch [1999, Application of generalized estimating equations to a dental randomized clinical trial. Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 9, 161-178].