Matching Software and Context in Open Learning Scenarios

We describe the use of log file analysis to investigate whether the use of CSCL applications corresponds to its didactical purposes. Exemplarily we examine the use of the web-based system CommSy as software support for project-oriented university courses. We present two findings: (1) We suggest measures to shape the context of CSCL applications and support their initial and continuous use. (2) We show how log files can be used to analyze how, when and by whom a CSCL system is used and thus help to validate further empirical findings. However, log file analyses can only be interpreted reasonably when additional data concerning the context of use is available.

Missing Links in the Proposed EU Data Protection Regulation and Cloud Computing Scenarios: A Brief Overview

Applying location-focused data protection law within the context of a location-agnostic cloud computing framework is fraught with difficulties. While the Proposed EU Data Protection Regulation has introduced a lot of changes to the current data protection framework, the complexities of data processing in the cloud involve various layers and intermediaries of actors that have not been properly addressed. This leaves some gaps in the regulation when analyzed in cloud scenarios. This paper gives a brief overview of the relevant provisions of the regulation that will have an impact on cloud transactions and addresses the missing links. It is hoped that these loopholes will be reconsidered before the final version of the law is passed in order to avoid unintended consequences.

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

A longitudinal study of Type-B aortic dissection and endovascular repair scenarios: computational analyses

Conservative medical treatment is commonly first recommended for patients with uncomplicated Type-B aortic dissection (AD). However, if dissection-related complications occur, endovascular repair or open surgery is performed. Here we establish computational models of AD based on radiological three-dimensional images of a patient at initial presentation and after 4-years of best medical treatment (BMT). Computational fluid dynamics analyses are performed to quantitatively investigate the hemodynamic features of AD. Entry and re-entries (functioning as entries and outlets) are identified in the initial and follow-up models, and obvious variations of the inter-luminal flow exchange are revealed. Computational studies indicate that the reduction of blood pressure in BMT patients lowers pressure and wall shear stress in the thoracic aorta in general, and flattens the pressure distribution on the outer wall of the dissection, potentially reducing the progressive enlargement of the false lumen. Finally, scenario studies of endovascular aortic repair are conducted. The results indicate that, for patients with multiple tears, stent-grafts occluding all re-entries would be required to effectively reduce inter-luminal blood communication and thus induce thrombosis in the false lumen. This implicates that computational flow analyses may identify entries and relevant re-entries between true and false lumen and potentially assist in stent-graft planning.

Secondary succession and dipterocarp recruitment in Bornean rain forest after logging

To understand succession in dipterocarp rain forest after logging, the structure, species composition and dynamics of primary (PF) and secondary (SF) forest at Danum were compared. In 10 replicate 0.16-ha plots per forest type trees >= 10 cm gbh (3.2 cm dbh) were measured in 1995 and 2001. The SF had been logged in 1988, which allowed successional change to be recorded at 8 and 13 years. In 2001, saplings (1.0-3.1 cm dbh) were measured in nested quadrats. The forest types were similar in mean radiation at 2 m height, and in density, basal area and species number of all trees. Among small (10 <= 31.4) and large ( >= 31.4 cm gbh) trees, in both 1995 and 2001, there were 10- and 3-fold more dipterocarps in SF than PF respectively; and averaging over the two dates, there were correspondingly ca. 10- and 18-fold more pioneers. Mortality was ca. 60% higher in SF than PF, largely due to a seven-fold difference for pioneers: for dipterocarps there was little difference. Recruitment was similar in PF and SE Stem growth rates were 37% higher in SF than PF for all trees, although dipterocarps showed the opposite trend. Among saplings, dipterocarps dominated SF with a 10-fold higher density than in PF. For dipterocarps, the light (LH) and medium-heavy (MHH) canopy hardwoods, and the shade-tolerant, smaller-stature other (OTH) species (e.g. Hopea and Vatica) were in the ratios ca. 40:15:45 in SF and 85: < 1:15 in PF. LHs had higher mortality than OTHs in SE In PF ca. 80% of the saplings were LH: in SF ca. 70% were OTH. The predominance of OTHs in SF is explained by the logging of primary rain forest which was in a likely late stage of recovery from natural disturbance, plus the continuing shaded conditions in the understorey promoted by dense pioneer vegetation. At 13 years after logging succession appeared to be inhibited: LHs were being suppressed but MHHs and OTHs persisted. Succession in lowland dipterocarp, rain forests may therefore depend on the successional state of the primary forest when it is logged. A review of logged versus unlogged studies in Borneo highlights the need for more detailed ecological comparisons.

Mass Movement-Induced Tsunami Hazard on Perialpine Lake Lucerne (Switzerland): Scenarios and Numerical Experiments

Previous studies of the sediments of Lake Lucerne have shown that massive subaqueous mass movements affecting unconsolidated sediments on lateral slopes are a common process in this lake, and, in view of historical reports describing damaging waves on the lake, it was suggested that tsunamis generated by mass movements represent a considerable natural hazard on the lakeshores. Newly performed numerical simulations combining two-dimensional, depth-averaged models for mass-movement propagation and for tsunami generation, propagation and inunda- tion reproduce a number of reported tsunami effects. Four analysed mass-movement scenarios—three based on documented slope failures involving volumes of 5.5 to 20.8 9 106 m3—show peak wave heights of several metres and maximum runup of 6 to [10 m in the directly affected basins, while effects in neighbouring basins are less drastic. The tsunamis cause large-scale inundation over distances of several hundred metres on flat alluvial plains close to the mass-movement source areas. Basins at the ends of the lake experience regular water-level oscillations with characteristic periods of several minutes. The vulnerability of potentially affected areas has increased dramatically since the times of the damaging historical events, recommending a thorough evaluation of the hazard.

Etomidate - a review of robust evidence for its use in various clinical scenarios

Etomidate is an intravenous hypnotic with a favourable clinical profile in haemodynamic high-risk scenarios. Currently, there is an active debate about the clinical significance of the drug's side effects and its overall risk-benefit ratio. Etomidate-induced transient adrenocortical suppression is well documented and has been associated with increased mortality in sepsis. In surgical patients at risk of hypotensive complications, however, a review of current literature provides no robust evidence to contraindicate a single-bolus etomidate induction. Large randomised controlled trials as well as additional observational data are required to compare safety of etomidate and its alternatives.

Search for pair-produced third-generation squarks decaying via charm quarks or in compressed supersymmetric scenarios in pp collisions at √s=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for supersymmetry via direct production of third-generation squarks are reported, using 20.3  fb −1 of proton-proton collision data at √s =8  TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC in 2012. Two different analysis strategies based on monojetlike and c -tagged event selections are carried out to optimize the sensitivity for direct top squark-pair production in the decay channel to a charm quark and the lightest neutralino (t 1 →c+χ ˜ 0 1 ) across the top squark–neutralino mass parameter space. No excess above the Standard Model background expectation is observed. The results are interpreted in the context of direct pair production of top squarks and presented in terms of exclusion limits in the m ˜t 1, m ˜ X0 1 ) parameter space. A top squark of mass up to about 240 GeV is excluded at 95% confidence level for arbitrary neutralino masses, within the kinematic boundaries. Top squark masses up to 270 GeV are excluded for a neutralino mass of 200 GeV. In a scenario where the top squark and the lightest neutralino are nearly degenerate in mass, top squark masses up to 260 GeV are excluded. The results from the monojetlike analysis are also interpreted in terms of compressed scenarios for top squark-pair production in the decay channel t ˜ 1 →b+ff ′ +χ ˜ 0 1 and sbottom pair production with b ˜ 1 →b+χ ˜ 0 1 , leading to a similar exclusion for nearly mass-degenerate third-generation squarks and the lightest neutralino. The results in this paper significantly extend previous results at colliders.

Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.