949 resultados para Intermittency and crises
Resumo:
China’s financial system has experienced a series of major reforms in recent years. Efforts have been made towards introducing the shareholding system in state-owned commercial banks, restructuring of securities firms, re-organising equity of joint venture insurance companies, further improving the corporate governance structure, managing financial risks and ultimately establishing a system to protect investors (Xinhua, 2010). Financial product innovation, with the further opening up of financial markets and the development of the insurance and bond market, has increased liquidity as well as reduced financial risks. The U.S. subprime crisis indicated the benefit of financial innovations for the economy, but without proper control, they may lead to unexpected consequences. Kirkpatrick (2009) argues that failures and weaknesses in corporate governance arrangements and insufficient accounting standards and regulatory requirements attributed to the financial crisis. Similar to the financial crises of the last decade, the global financial crisis which sparked in 2008, surfaced a variety of significant corporate governance failures: the dysfunction of market mechanisms, the lack of transparency and accountability, misaligned compensation arrangements and the late response of government, all which encouraged management short-termism, poor risk management, as well as some fraudulent schemes. The unique characteristics of the Chinese banking system are an interesting point for studying post-crisis corporate governance reform. Considering that China modelled its governance system on the Anglo-American system, this paper examines the impact of the financial crisis on corporate governance reform in developed economies, and particularly, China’s reform of its financial sector. The paper further analyses the Chinese government’s role in bank supervision and risk management. In this regard, the paper contributes to the corporate governance literature within the Chinese context by providing insights into the contributing factors to the corporate governance failure that led to the global financial crisis. It also provides policy recommendations for China’s policy makers to seriously consider. The results suggest a need for the re-examination of corporate governance adequacy and the institutionalisation of business ethics. The paper’s next section provides a review of China’s financial system with reference to the financial crisis, followed by a critical evaluation of a capitalistic system and a review of Anglo-American and Continental European models. It then analyses the need for a new corporate governance model in China by considering the bank failures in developed economies and the potential risks and inefficiencies in a current State controlled system. The paper closes by reflecting the need for Chinese policy makers to continually develop, adapt and rewrite corporate governance practices capable of meeting the new challenge, and to pay attention to business ethics, an issue which goes beyond regulation.
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We investigated the plume structure of a piezo-electric sprayer system, set up to release ethanol in a wind tunnel, using a fast response mini-photoionizaton detector. We recorded the plume structure of four different piezo-sprayer configurations: the sprayer alone; with a 1.6-mm steel mesh shield; with a 3.2-mm steel mesh shield; and with a 5 cm circular upwind baffle. We measured a 12 × 12-mm core at the center of the plume, and both a horizontal and vertical cross-section of the plume, all at 100-, 200-, and 400-mm downwind of the odor source. Significant differences in plume structure were found among all configurations in terms of conditional relative mean concentration, intermittency, ratio of peak concentration to conditional mean concentration, and cross-sectional area of the plume. We then measured the flight responses of the almond moth, Cadra cautella, to odor plumes generated with the sprayer alone, and with the upwind baffle piezo-sprayer configuration, releasing a 13:1 ratio of (9Z,12E)-tetradecadienyl acetate and (Z)-9-tetradecenyl acetate diluted in ethanol at release rates of 1, 10, 100, and 1,000 pg/min. For each configuration, differences in pheromone release rate resulted in significant differences in the proportions of moths performing oriented flight and landing behaviors. Additionally, there were apparent differences in the moths’ behaviors between the two sprayer configurations, although this requires confirmation with further experiments. This study provides evidence that both pheromone concentration and plume structure affect moth orientation behavior and demonstrates that care is needed when setting up experiments that use a piezo-electric release system to ensure the optimal conditions for behavioral observations.
Resumo:
After the “European” experience of BSE and further food safety crises consumer trust is playing an increasingly important role in political and marketing decision making. This also relates to the area of consumer acceptance of GM food. This paper integrates consumer trust with the theory of planned behavior and a stated choice model to gain a more complete picture of consumer decision making. Preliminary results indicate that when GM products offer practical benefits to consumers acceptance may increase considerably. Furthermore, both trust and perceived benefits contribute significantly to explaining the level of acceptance.
Resumo:
An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12-36 hour lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 hours is chosen to constrain the large scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up for the models as they adjust to being driven from the YOTC analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large inter-model spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at mid-levels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behaviour shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.
Resumo:
The chapter examines how far medieval economic crises can be identified by analysing the residuals from a simultaneous equation model of the medieval English economy. High inflation, falls in gross domestic product and large intermittent changes in wage rates are all considered as potential indicators of crisis. Potential causal factors include bad harvests, wars and political instability. The chapter suggests that crises arose when a combination of different problems overwhelmed the capacity of government to address them. It may therefore be a mistake to look for a single cause of any crisis. The coincidence of separate problems is a more plausible explanation of many crises.
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This paper studies the impact of exogenous and endogenous shocks (exogenous shock is used interchangeably with external shock; endogenous shock is used interchangeably with domestic shock) on output fluctuations in post-communist countries during the 2000s. The first part presents the analytical framework and formulates a research hypothesis. The second part presents vector autoregressive estimation and analysis model proposed by Pesaran (2004) and Pesaran and Smith (2006) that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and spreads and accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CD) across the countries. Impulse response functions show that exogenous positive shock lead to a drop in output sustainability for 9 over 12 Central Eastern European countries and Russia, when the endogenous shock is mild and ambiguous. Moreover, the effect of exogenous shock is more significant during the crises. Variance decompositions show that exogenous shock in the aftermath of crisis had a substantial impact on economic activity of emerging economies.
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This chapter analyses the major UK economic crises that have occurred since the speculative bubbles of the seventeenth century. It integrates insights from economic history and business history to analyse both the general economic conditions and the specific business and financial practices that led to these crises. The analysis suggests a significant reinterpretation of the evidence – one that questions economists’ conventional views.
Resumo:
Today, transparency is hailed as a key to good governance and economic efficiency, with national states implementing new laws to allow citizens access to information. It is therefore paradoxical that, as shown by a series of crises and scandals, modern governments and international agencies frequently have paid only lip-service to such ideals. Since Jeremy Bentham first introduced the concept of transparency into the language in 1789, few societal debates have sparked so much interest within the academic community, and across a variety of disciplines, using different approaches and methodologies. Within these current debates, however, one fact is striking: the lack of historical reflection about the development of the concept of transparency, both as a principle and as applied in practice, prior to its inception. Accordingly, the aim of this special issue is to contribute to historicising the ways in which communication and control over fiscal policy and state finances operated in early modern European polities.
Resumo:
We study compressible magnetohydrodynamic turbulence, which holds the key to many astrophysical processes, including star formation and cosmic-ray propagation. To account for the variations of the magnetic field in the strongly turbulent fluid, we use wavelet decomposition of the turbulent velocity field into Alfven, slow, and fast modes, which presents an extension of the Cho & Lazarian decomposition approach based on Fourier transforms. The wavelets allow us to follow the variations of the local direction of the magnetic field and therefore improve the quality of the decomposition compared to the Fourier transforms, which are done in the mean field reference frame. For each resulting component, we calculate the spectra and two-point statistics such as longitudinal and transverse structure functions as well as higher order intermittency statistics. In addition, we perform a Helmholtz-Hodge decomposition of the velocity field into incompressible and compressible parts and analyze these components. We find that the turbulence intermittency is different for different components, and we show that the intermittency statistics depend on whether the phenomenon was studied in the global reference frame related to the mean magnetic field or in the frame defined by the local magnetic field. The dependencies of the measures we obtained are different for different components of the velocity; for instance, we show that while the Alfven mode intermittency changes marginally with the Mach number, the intermittency of the fast mode is substantially affected by the change.
Resumo:
Economic growth is the increase in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy over time. The total output is the quantity of goods or servicesproduced in a given time period within a country. Sweden was affected by two crises during the period 2000-2010: a dot-com bubble and a financial crisis. How did these two crises affect the economic growth? The changes of domestic output can be separated into four parts: changes in intermediate demand, final domestic demand, export demand and import substitution. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the economic growth during the period 2000-2010, with focus on the dot-com bubble in the beginning of the period 2000-2005, and the financial crisis at the end of the period 2005-2010. The methodology to be used is the structural decomposition method. This investigation shows that the main contributions to the Swedish total domestic output increase in both the period 2000-2005 and the period 2005-2010 were the effect of domestic demand. In the period 2005-2010, financial crisis weakened the effect of export. The output of the primary sector went from a negative change into a positive, explained mainly by strong export expansion. In the secondary sector, export had most effect in the period 2000-2005. Nevertheless, domestic demand and import ratio had more effect during the financial crisis period. Lastly, in the tertiary sector, domestic demand can mainly explain the output growth in the whole period 2000-2010.
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Media coverage of humanitarian crises is widely believed to influence charitable giving, yet this assertion has received little empirical scrutiny. Using Internet donations after the 2004 tsunami as a case study in a tobit framework, we show that media coverage of disasters increases charitable donations, with an additional minute of nightly news coverage increasing donations by 0.036 standard deviations from the mean. We repeat the analysis using instrumental variables in a tobit model to account for endogeneity, and the estimates are unchanged. We also show that the magnitude and sign of media impact vary by news source and relief agency.
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O objetivo desta pesquisa é discutir os chamados modelos de “contágio mimético” como uma explicação das crises financeiras e mostrar que tais situações não nascem necessariamente de comportamentos irracionais dos agentes econômicos.
Resumo:
Ao contrário do que afirma a análise econômica convencional, a causa das crises financeiras dos anos 1990 no México, Ásia, Brasil e Argentina não foi principalmente fiscal, mas sim a decisão dos governos de crescerem com poupança externa, isto é, com déficits em conta corrente. Essas foram crises de balanço de pagamento geradas pela sobreapreciação da moeda local e pelo alto nível de dívida externa e/ou rápido crescimento de déficit de conta corrente. Assim, repentinamente os credores externos se convenceram de que o país não enfrenta apenas um problema de liquidez, mas de solvência, e para de rolar a dívida. Um teste econométrico demonstra essas afirmações