Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The surface temperatures of Earth: steps towards integrated understanding of variability and change

Surface temperature is a key aspect of weather and climate, but the term may refer to different quantities that play interconnected roles and are observed by different means. In a community-based activity in June 2012, the EarthTemp Network brought together 55 researchers from five continents to improve the interaction between scientific communities who focus on surface temperature in particular domains, to exploit the strengths of different observing systems and to better meet the needs of different communities. The workshop identified key needs for progress towards meeting scientific and societal requirements for surface temperature understanding and information, which are presented in this community paper. A "whole-Earth" perspective is required with more integrated, collaborative approaches to observing and understanding Earth's various surface temperatures. It is necessary to build understanding of the relationships between different surface temperatures, where presently inadequate, and undertake large-scale systematic intercomparisons. Datasets need to be easier to obtain and exploit for a wide constituency of users, with the differences and complementarities communicated in readily understood terms, and realistic and consistent uncertainty information provided. Steps were also recommended to curate and make available data that are presently inaccessible, develop new observing systems and build capacities to accelerate progress in the accuracy and usability of surface temperature datasets.

Integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth in Iberian viticultural regions

The Iberian viticultural regions are convened according to the Denomination of Origin (DO) and present different climates, soils, topography and management practices. All these elements influence the vegetative growth of different varieties throughout the peninsula, and are tied to grape quality and wine type. In the current study, an integrated analysis of climate, soil, topography and vegetative growth was performed for the Iberian DO regions, using state-of-the-art datasets. For climatic assessment, a categorized index, accounting for phenological/thermal development, water availability and grape ripening conditions was computed. Soil textural classes were established to distinguish soil types. Elevation and aspect (orientation) were also taken into account, as the leading topographic elements. A spectral vegetation index was used to assess grapevine vegetative growth and an integrated analysis of all variables was performed. The results showed that the integrated climate-soil-topography influence on vine performance is evident. Most Iberian vineyards are grown in temperate dry climates with loamy soils, presenting low vegetative growth. Vineyards in temperate humid conditions tend to show higher vegetative growth. Conversely, in cooler/warmer climates, lower vigour vineyards prevail and other factors, such as soil type and precipitation acquire more important roles in driving vigour. Vines in prevailing loamy soils are grown over a wide climatic diversity, suggesting that precipitation is the primary factor influencing vigour. The present assessment of terroir characteristics allows direct comparison among wine regions and may have great value to viticulturists, particularly under a changing climate.

An integrated study of urban microclimates in Chongqing, China: historical weather data, transverse measurement and numerical simulation

Chongqing is the largest central-government-controlled municipality in China, which is now under going a rapid urbanization. The question remains open: What are the consequences of such rapid urbanization in Chongqing in terms of urban microclimates? An integrated study comprising three different research approaches is adopted in the present paper. By analyzing the observed annual climate data, an average rising trend of 0.10◦C/decade was found for the annual mean temperature from 1951 to 2010 in Chongqing,indicating a higher degree of urban warming in Chongqing. In addition, two complementary types of field measurements were conducted: fixed weather stations and mobile transverse measurement. Numerical simulations using a house-developed program are able to predict the urban air temperature in Chongqing.The urban heat island intensity in Chongqing is stronger in summer compared to autumn and winter.The maximum urban heat island intensity occurs at around midnight, and can be as high as 2.5◦C. In the day time, an urban cool island exists. Local greenery has a great impact on the local thermal environment.Urban green spaces can reduce urban air temperature and therefore mitigate the urban heat island. The cooling effect of an urban river is limited in Chongqing, as both sides of the river are the most developed areas, but the relative humidity is much higher near the river compared with the places far from it.

The history of the practice of strategy from Antiquity to Napoleon

This chapter outlines the history of the practice of strategy, predating the introduction of the term. It homes in on episodes of European history since Antiquity for which historians claim to have found evidence of the practice of strategy, defined by Kimberly Kagan as ‘the setting of a state’s objectives and of priorities among those objectives’ in order to allocate resources and choose the best means. While focusing only on Europe, this chapter covers case studies over nearly 2500 ranging from the wars of Ancient Greece, of the Romans to Medieval warfare (here with a focus on English history), the warfare of Philip II of Spain, Louis XIV of France, Frederick II of Prussia, the French Revolutionaries and Napoleon.

IT support for administrative planning of clinical practice.

The administration of clinical practice placements for nursing students is a highly complex and information driven task. This demonstration is intended to give insight into the web based system KliPP (a Swedish acronym for Clinical Practice Planning) and to discuss the possibilities for further development and use.

On the EA-style integrated processing of self-contained mathematical texts

A sound and complete first-order goal-oriented sequent-type calculus is developed with ``large-block'' inference rules. In particular, the calculus contains formal analogues of such natural proof-search techniques as handling definitions and applying auxiliary propositions.

Newly Automated System For Integrated Assessment Of The Conditions Of Underwater Gas Pipelines

An underwater gas pipeline is the portion of the pipeline that crosses a river beneath its bottom. Underwater gas pipelines are subject to increasing dangers as time goes by. An accident at an underwater gas pipeline can lead to technological and environmental disaster on the scale of an entire region. Therefore, timely troubleshooting of all underwater gas pipelines in order to prevent any potential accidents will remain a pressing task for the industry. The most important aspect of resolving this challenge is the quality of the automated system in question. Now the industry doesn't have any automated system that fully meets the needs of the experts working in the field maintaining underwater gas pipelines. Principle Aim of this Research: This work aims to develop a new system of automated monitoring which would simplify the process of evaluating the technical condition and decision making on planning and preventive maintenance and repair work on the underwater gas pipeline. Objectives: Creation a shared model for a new, automated system via IDEF3; Development of a new database system which would store all information about underwater gas pipelines; Development a new application that works with database servers, and provides an explanation of the results obtained from the server; Calculation of the values MTBF for specified pipelines based on quantitative data obtained from tests of this system. Conclusion: The new, automated system PodvodGazExpert has been developed for timely and qualitative determination of the physical conditions of underwater gas pipeline; The basis of the mathematical analysis of this new, automated system uses principal component analysis method; The process of determining the physical condition of an underwater gas pipeline with this new, automated system increases the MTBF by a factor of 8.18 above the existing system used today in the industry.

Integrated valorization of Anona Cherimola Mill. seeds

Agricultural and agro-industrial residues are often considered both an environmental and an economical problem. Therefore, a paradigm shift is needed, assuming residues as biorefinery feedstocks. In this work cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.) seeds, which are lipid-rich (ca. 30%) and have a significant lignocellulosic fraction, were used as an example of a residue without any current valorization. Firstly, the lipid fraction was obtained by solvent extraction. Extraction yield varied from 13% to 28%, according to the extraction method and time, and solvent purity. This oil was converted into biodiesel (by base-catalyzed transesterification), yielding 76 g FAME/100 g oil. The obtained biodiesel is likely to be incorporated in the commercial chain, according to the EN14214 standard. The remaining lignocellulosic fraction was subjected to two alternative fractionation processes for the selective recovery of hemicellulose, aiming different products. Empirical mathematical models were developed for both processes, aiming future scale-up. Autohydrolysis rendered essentially oligosaccharides (10 gL-1) with properties indicating potential food/feed/pharmacological applications. The remaining solid was enzymatically saccharified, reaching a saccharification yield of 83%. The hydrolyzate obtained by dilute acid hydrolysis contained mostly monosaccharides, mainly xylose (26 gL-1), glucose (10 gL-1) and arabinose (3 gL-1), and had low content of microbial growth inhibitors. This hydrolyzate has proven to be appropriate to be used as culture media for exopolisaccharide production, using bacteria or microbial consortia. The maximum conversion of monosaccharides into xanthan gum was 0.87 g/g and kefiran maximum productivity was 0.07 g.(Lh)-1. This work shows the technical feasibility of using cherimoya seeds, and materials as such, as potential feedstocks, opening new perspectives for upgrading them in the biorefinery framework.

Atenção, consciência e prática pedagógica: um estudo de suas interconexões

This thesis entitled, Attention, Consciousness and Practice of Teaching: A Study of its Interconnects, argues about a relationship between development of attention and consciousness and its connection to the pedagogical practice developed in a public elementary school in Natal city, Rio Grande do Norte state. The research school is located in the south of the city. School activities are developed according with the political pedagogical project. The group investigated was 25 students aged between 8-12 years of the fourth grade. The students of the research are residents of Ponta Negra village, Pirangi and Neópolis districts. The research was effected by three teachers however, the purpose of this thesis was to investigate the relationship between the development of attention and awareness and the pedagogical practice of one of the teachers who participated in the research, and more specifically understand the psychic procedures involved in the development of attention and awareness; enabling conditions for the realization of an educational action that enables the development in terms of focused attention and states of consciousness of students, analyzing their interrelations. Therefore, it was used as methodology the collaborative research by providing elements for research as strategy of formation and development, the coproduction of knowledge, and the change of educational practice through reflective processes effected through the collaboration and critical reflection among participants. For empirical construction, it was used the following procedural elements: meeting, planning, diagnosis of attention and awareness, reflective period studies, collaborative observation and reflection sessions with the participant teachers and the students. The diagnosis of attention was effected through a game and its elaboration was based on the study proposed by Luria (1991). The purpose of the game was to apprehend the stage where students were in relation of a development attention. Concerning the diagnosis of consciousness, it was taken as reference studies by Burlatski (1987), Pinto (1960a, 1960b), Rubinstien (1973), Leontiev (1978) and others studies discussing this topic. As a method of analysis, it was resorted to the dialectical historical materialism, the ability to identify, analyze and explain those contradictions generated in the process. In the analysis procedures were prepared some categories as well as, were used categories by other authors with the purpose of understanding the critical reflective process collaborative evidencing the formation of concepts and pedagogical practice of the participants, and the analysis of a practical pedagogical of a teacher and her relationships with the development of the psychic process and functions of students, in other words, attention and awareness. Regarding the reflective process were used the categories: technical reflection, critical reflection and practical reflection (LIBERALI, 2008). Concerning the analysis of the concepts were used the categories: description, characterization, definition and conceptualization (FERREIRA, 2003). And for critical collaboration were the categories: critical collaboration, uncritical, technique and practice. In pedagogical practice, were used categories: repetitive practice teaching, heterogeneous and reflexive critical (SOUZA, 2010). During the collaborative observation was evident predominance of heterogeneous practice, because the main participant teacher searches for immediate solution to the situations problem, as well as reflection moments, is the technical arrangement, practice, critical, as well as concern in interacting with students, the qualitative changes, deep knowledge, renewal and transformation of the teaching activity. In this process, the collaborative reflection proved to be an effective strategy for developing awareness of students, because through reflection sessions, the students were able to understand that learning is a building process and that it necessary to be careful for their development

Influence of educational level on myocardial hypertrophy of hemodialysis patients

Introduction: Chronic renal disease is associated with a high cardiovascular risk. Data from the general population associate cardiovascular diseases with low educational level, but no study has evaluated this association in patients on hemodialysis. Objective: This study aimed at evaluating the association between educational level, hypertension, and left ventricular hypertrophy in patients on chronic hemodialysis. Methods: A standard socioeconomic questionnaire was applied to 79 hemodialysis patients at the Hospital das Clínicas of Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, state of São Paulo. Clinical, laboratory and echocardiographic data were obtained from medical records. The patients were divided into two groups according to the median educational level, as follows: G1, patients with three or less years of schooling; G2, patients with more than three years of schooling. Results: Blood pressure, interdialytic weight gain, and variables statistically different in the two groups (p < 0.2) underwent multiple analysis. Independent associations were stated with p < 0.05 in multiple analysis. The mean age of patients was 57 ± 12.8 years, 46 were males (57%), and 53 white (67%). The variables selected for multiple analysis were: age (p = 0.004); educational level (p < 0.0001); body mass index (p = 0.124); left ventricular diameter (p = 0.048); and left ventricular mass index (p = 0.006). Antihypertensive drugs were similar in both groups. Systolic blood pressure (p = 0.006) and years of schooling (p = 0.047) had a significant and independent correlation with left ventricular mass index. Conclusion: In hemodialysis patients, left ventricular mass associated not only with blood pressure but also with educational level.

Deciphering the weathering processes using environmental mineralogy and geochemistry: Towards an integrated model of laterite and podzol genesis in the Upper Amazon Basin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Integrated assessment of multilevel biomarker responses and chemical analysis in Mussels from Sao Sebastiao, São Paulo, Brazil

The aim of the present study was to investigate the presence of contaminants in the mussel Perna perna from Sao Sebastiao Channel, São Paulo, Brazil, and to evaluate the effects of these contaminants on these organisms at biochemical (catalase [CAT], glutathione-S-transferase [GST], and cholinesterase [ChE]), cellular (neutral red retention time [NRRT] assay), and physiological (cardiac monitoring) levels. Two sampling surveys were performed (winter of 2001 and summer of 2002) at six stations along the channel: Cigarras, station 1; late Clube de Ilhabela, station 2; Oil Terminal, station 3; Toque Toque, station 4; Ponta da Sela, station 5 (reference station); and Taubate, station 6. Differences in CAT activity were observed between mussels from stations 3 and 5 during the winter, but no differences were detected in the summer. No differences in GST activity were found among stations during the winter, although animals from station 3 showed higher activity during the summer. The ChE activity was significantly higher in the mussels from stations I and 2 during the winter and from stations I and 3 during the summer. Organisms from stations I through 4 showed statistically lower NRRT in both seasons. Similar heart rates were observed in the mussels from all stations. Hydrocarbons were detected in organisms from all the stations in both seasons. During the winter, higher polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels were observed in organisms from station 3, whereas during the summer, higher levels of metals were found in organisms from stations 1, 3, and 4. The multivariate analyses showed a strong influence of PAHs on the winter biological results, but metals showed higher influence on these responses in the summer, indicating multiple contaminant sources.