Distinguishing forced versus discretionary replacements in new product diffusion models

In many product categories of durable goods such as TV, PC, and DVD player, the largest component of sales is generated by consumers replacing existing units. Aggregate sales models proposed by diffusion of innovation researchers for the replacement component of sales have incorporated several different replacement distributions such as Rayleigh, Weibull, Truncated Normal and Gamma. Although these alternative replacement distributions have been tested using both time series sales data and individual-level actuarial “life-tables” of replacement ages, there is no census on which distributions are more appropriate to model replacement behaviour. In the current study we are motivated to develop a new “modified gamma” distribution by two reasons. First we recognise that replacements have two fundamentally different drivers – those forced by failure and early, discretionary replacements. The replacement distribution for each of these drivers is expected to be quite different. Second, we observed a poor fit of other distributions to out empirical data. We conducted a survey of 8,077 households to empirically examine models of replacement sales for six electronic consumer durables – TVs, VCRs, DVD players, digital cameras, personal and notebook computers. This data allows us to construct individual-level “life-tables” for replacement ages. We demonstrate the new modified gamma model fits the empirical data better than existing models for all six products using both a primary and a hold-out sample.

Ecological leadership : a new perspective on leadership

Given today's focus on the state of the environment and the developing role of corporate social leadership in could be argued that there is a need for the development of successful business leaders who have a positive relationship to the natural world. Gifford (2007) argued that any real change in sustainable practice will most likely happen at an individual level, through changes in attitudes and everyday behaviour. For this change to happen, an individual will need to feel connected to the natural world (Dunbar, 2004; Schroll, 2007). Roszak (1992) developed the notion of ecopsychology specifically to explore this relationship and suggest new ways to generate greater environmental awareness as well as ameliorate psychological problems caused or exacerbated by widespread alienation from nature. From this perspective it seems imperative that we develop people centred leader’s who feel connected to the natural world whilst demonstrating solid performance, as measured by organisational and social indicators. This paper presents information from an International research project that might add further insights into the role outdoor education plays in the development of generic leaders who have a positive relationship to the natural world. Three questionnaires, an established measurement of generic transformational leadership (MLQ) and two established measurement of attitudes to and feelings about the natural world (the New Ecological Paradigm Scale and the Connectedness to Nature Scale), were administered to 214 (males, n=138 and females, n=76) International outdoor leaders with the implicit aim of assessing the nexus of transformational leadership theory and adventure based leadership development. The large and diverse cohort of participants has provided ground-breaking insights into transformational and ecological leadership styles. This paper outlines a descriptive analysis of findings and offers valuable information for those involved in training leaders. Throughout this presentation participants will be encouraged to contextualise the information for their specific circumstance.

Youth Homelessness and Early Intervention: Key Characteristics and Challenges

The key requirements for effective early intervention into youth homelessness are discussed. Young people are exposed to the risk of homelessness from a constellation of factors at the structural through to the individual level and early intervention has generally been conceptualized as part of a continuum of responses.

Participation index : improved measure of transport related social exclusion?

Although transport related social exclusion has been identified through zonal accessibility measures in the recent past, the debate has shifted from zonal to individual level measures. One way to identify disadvantaged individuals is to measure their size of participation in society (activity spaces). After reviewing existing literature, this paper has found two approaches to measure the activity spaces. One approach is based on the time-geographic potential path area (PPA) concept. The size of the PPA has largely been used as an indicator to the size of potential activity spaces and consequently individual accessibility. The limitations of the PPA concept have been identified in this paper and it is argued cannot be applied as a measure of social exclusion. The other approach is based on individuals’ actual travel activity participation called actual activity spaces. The size of actual activity spaces possesses a good potential measure of social exclusion. However, the indicators to measure the size of actual activity spaces are multidimensional representing the different aspects of social exclusion. The development of a unified approach has therefore been found to be important. This paper has developed a participation index (PI) using the different dimensions of actual activity spaces encountered. A framework has also been developed to operationalise the concept in GIS. The framework, on the one hand, will visualize individuals’ actual travel behaviour in real geographic space; on the other hand, it will calculate the size of their participation in society.

Unbiased estimation of the half-life to price index convergence among U.S. cities

Estimates of the half-life to convergence of prices across a panel of cities are subject to bias from three potential sources: inappropriate cross-sectional aggregation of heterogeneous coefficients, presence of lagged dependent variables in a model with individual fixed effects, and time aggregation of commodity prices. This paper finds no evidence of heterogeneity bias in annual CPI data for 17 U.S. cities from 1918 to 2006, but correcting for the “Nickell bias” and time aggregation bias produces a half-life of 7.5 years, shorter than estimates from previous studies.

Developing a model of embedding academic numeracy in university programs : a case study from nursing

This is a study of the academic numeracy of nursing students. This study develops a theoretical model for the design and delivery of university courses in academic numeracy. The following objectives are addressed: 1. To investigate nursing students' current knowledge of academic numeracy; 2. To investigate how nursing students’ knowledge and skills in academic numeracy can be enhanced using a developmental psychology framework; and 3. To utilise data derived from meeting objectives 1 and 2 to develop a theoretical model to embed academic numeracy in university programs. This study draws from Valsiner’s Human Development Theory (Valsiner, 1997, 2007). It is a quasi-experimental intervention case study (Faltis, 1997) and takes a multimethod approach using pre- and post-tests; observation notes; and semi-structured teaching sessions to document a series of microgenetic studies of student numeracy. Each microgenetic study is centered on the lived experience of students becoming more numerate. The method for this section is based on Vygotsky’s double stimulation (Valsiner, 2000a; 2007). Data collection includes interviews on students’ past experience with mathematics; their present feelings and experiences and how these present feelings and experiences are transformed. The findings from this study have provided evidence that the course developed for nursing students, underpinned by an appropriate framework, does improve academic numeracy. More specifically, students improved their content knowledge of and confidence in mathematics in areas that were directly related to their degree. The study used Valsiner’s microgenetic approach to development to trace the course as it was being taught and two students’ personal academic numeracy journeys. It highlighted particularly troublesome concepts, then outlined scaffolding and pathways used to develop understanding. This approach to academic numeracy development was summarised into a four-faceted model at the university, program, course and individual level. This model can be applied successfully to similar contexts. Thus the thesis advances both theory and practice in this under-researched and under-theorised area.

Reliability of ultrasonographic measurement of the architecture of the vastus lateralis and gastrocnemius medialis muscles in older adults

Objective To determine the test-retest reliability of measurements of thickness, fascicle length (Lf) and pennation angle (θ) of the vastus lateralis (VL) and gastrocnemius medialis (GM) muscles in older adults. Participants Twenty-one healthy older adults (11 men and ten women; average age 68·1 ± 5·2 years) participated in this study. Methods Ultrasound images (probe frequency 10 MHz) of the VL at two sites (VL site 1 and 2) were obtained with participants seated with knee at 90º flexion. For GM measures, participants lay prone with ankle fixed at 15º dorsiflexion. Measures were taken on two separate occasions, 7 days apart (T1 and T2). Results The ICCs (95% CI) were: VL site 1 thickness = 0·96(0·90–0·98); VL site 2 thickness = 0·96(0·90–0·98), VL θ = 0·87(0·68–0·95), VL Lf = 0·80(0·50–0·92), GM thickness = 0·97(0·92–0·99), GM θ = 0·85(0·62–0·94) and GM Lf =0·90(0·75–0·96). The 95% ratio limits of agreement (LOAs) for all measures, calculated by multiplying the standard deviation of the ratio of the results between T1 and T2 by 1·96, ranged from 10·59 to 38·01%. Conclusion The ability of these tests to determine a real change in VL and GM muscle architecture is good on a group level but problematic on an individual level as the relatively large 95% ratio LOAs in the current study may encompass the changes in architecture observed in other training studies. Therefore, the current findings suggest that B-mode ultrasonography can be used with confidence by researchers when investigating changes in muscle architecture in groups of older adults, but its use is limited in showing changes in individuals over time.

Models of collective cell motion for cell populations with different aspect ratio : diffusion, proliferation and travelling waves

Continuum, partial differential equation models are often used to describe the collective motion of cell populations, with various types of motility represented by the choice of diffusion coefficient, and cell proliferation captured by the source terms. Previously, the choice of diffusion coefficient has been largely arbitrary, with the decision to choose a particular linear or nonlinear form generally based on calibration arguments rather than making any physical connection with the underlying individual-level properties of the cell motility mechanism. In this work we provide a new link between individual-level models, which account for important cell properties such as varying cell shape and volume exclusion, and population-level partial differential equation models. We work in an exclusion process framework, considering aligned, elongated cells that may occupy more than one lattice site, in order to represent populations of agents with different sizes. Three different idealizations of the individual-level mechanism are proposed, and these are connected to three different partial differential equations, each with a different diffusion coefficient; one linear, one nonlinear and degenerate and one nonlinear and nondegenerate. We test the ability of these three models to predict the population level response of a cell spreading problem for both proliferative and nonproliferative cases. We also explore the potential of our models to predict long time travelling wave invasion rates and extend our results to two dimensional spreading and invasion. Our results show that each model can accurately predict density data for nonproliferative systems, but that only one does so for proliferative systems. Hence great care must be taken to predict density data for with varying cell shape.

The four principles: Can they be measured and do they predict ethical decision making?

Background The four principles of Beauchamp and Childress - autonomy, non-maleficence, beneficence and justice - have been extremely influential in the field of medical ethics, and are fundamental for understanding the current approach to ethical assessment in health care. This study tests whether these principles can be quantitatively measured on an individual level, and then subsequently if they are used in the decision making process when individuals are faced with ethical dilemmas. Methods The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used as a tool for the measurement of the principles. Four scenarios, which involved conflicts between the medical ethical principles, were presented to participants and they made judgments about the ethicality of the action in the scenario, and their intentions to act in the same manner if they were in the situation. Results Individual preferences for these medical ethical principles can be measured using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. This technique provides a useful tool in which to highlight individual medical ethical values. On average individuals have a significant preference for non-maleficence over the other principles, however, and perhaps counter-intuitively, this preference does not seem to relate to applied ethical judgements in specific ethical dilemmas. Conclusions People state they value these medical ethical principles but they do not actually seem to use them directly in the decision making process. The reasons for this are explained through the lack of a behavioural model to account for the relevant situational factors not captured by the principles. The limitations of the principles in predicting ethical decision making are discussed.

An innovative approach to the assessment of nutrient intake in adults with type 2 diabetes : the development, trial and evaluation of a mobile phone photo/voice dietary record

Nutrition interventions in the form of both self-management education and individualised diet therapy are considered essential for the long-term management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The measurement of diet is essential to inform, support and evaluate nutrition interventions in the management of T2DM. Barriers inherent within health care settings and systems limit ongoing access to personnel and resources, while traditional prospective methods of assessing diet are burdensome for the individual and often result in changes in typical intake to facilitate recording. This thesis investigated the inclusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) to overcome limitations to current approaches in the nutritional management of T2DM, in particular the development, trial and evaluation of the Nutricam dietary assessment method (NuDAM) consisting of a mobile phone photo/voice application to assess nutrient intake in a free-living environment with older adults with T2DM. Study 1: Effectiveness of an automated telephone system in promoting change in dietary intake among adults with T2DM The effectiveness of an automated telephone system, Telephone-Linked Care (TLC) Diabetes, designed to deliver self-management education was evaluated in terms of promoting dietary change in adults with T2DM and sub-optimal glycaemic control. In this secondary data analysis independent of the larger randomised controlled trial, complete data was available for 95 adults (59 male; mean age(±SD)=56.8±8.1 years; mean(±SD)BMI=34.2±7.0kg/m2). The treatment effect showed a reduction in total fat of 1.4% and saturated fat of 0.9% energy intake, body weight of 0.7 kg and waist circumference of 2.0 cm. In addition, a significant increase in the nutrition self-efficacy score of 1.3 (p<0.05) was observed in the TLC group compared to the control group. The modest trends observed in this study indicate that the TLC Diabetes system does support the adoption of positive nutrition behaviours as a result of diabetes self-management education, however caution must be applied in the interpretation of results due to the inherent limitations of the dietary assessment method used. The decision to use a close-list FFQ with known bias may have influenced the accuracy of reporting dietary intake in this instance. This study provided an example of the methodological challenges experienced with measuring changes in absolute diet using a FFQ, and reaffirmed the need for novel prospective assessment methods capable of capturing natural variance in usual intakes. Study 2: The development and trial of NuDAM recording protocol The feasibility of the Nutricam mobile phone photo/voice dietary record was evaluated in 10 adults with T2DM (6 Male; age=64.7±3.8 years; BMI=33.9±7.0 kg/m2). Intake was recorded over a 3-day period using both Nutricam and a written estimated food record (EFR). Compared to the EFR, the Nutricam device was found to be acceptable among subjects, however, energy intake was under-recorded using Nutricam (-0.6±0.8 MJ/day; p<0.05). Beverages and snacks were the items most frequently not recorded using Nutricam; however forgotten meals contributed to the greatest difference in energy intake between records. In addition, the quality of dietary data recorded using Nutricam was unacceptable for just under one-third of entries. It was concluded that an additional mechanism was necessary to complement dietary information collected via Nutricam. Modifications to the method were made to allow for clarification of Nutricam entries and probing forgotten foods during a brief phone call to the subject the following morning. The revised recording protocol was evaluated in Study 4. Study 3: The development and trial of the NuDAM analysis protocol Part A explored the effect of the type of portion size estimation aid (PSEA) on the error associated with quantifying four portions of 15 single foods items contained in photographs. Seventeen dietetic students (1 male; age=24.7±9.1 years; BMI=21.1±1.9 kg/m2) estimated all food portions on two occasions: without aids and with aids (food models or reference food photographs). Overall, the use of a PSEA significantly reduced mean (±SD) group error between estimates compared to no aid (-2.5±11.5% vs. 19.0±28.8%; p<0.05). The type of PSEA (i.e. food models vs. reference food photograph) did not have a notable effect on the group estimation error (-6.7±14.9% vs. 1.4±5.9%, respectively; p=0.321). This exploratory study provided evidence that the use of aids in general, rather than the type, was more effective in reducing estimation error. Findings guided the development of the Dietary Estimation and Assessment Tool (DEAT) for use in the analysis of the Nutricam dietary record. Part B evaluated the effect of the DEAT on the error associated with the quantification of two 3-day Nutricam dietary records in a sample of 29 dietetic students (2 males; age=23.3±5.1 years; BMI=20.6±1.9 kg/m2). Subjects were randomised into two groups: Group A and Group B. For Record 1, the use of the DEAT (Group A) resulted in a smaller error compared to estimations made without the tool (Group B) (17.7±15.8%/day vs. 34.0±22.6%/day, p=0.331; respectively). In comparison, all subjects used the DEAT to estimate Record 2, with resultant error similar between Group A and B (21.2±19.2%/day vs. 25.8±13.6%/day; p=0.377 respectively). In general, the moderate estimation error associated with quantifying food items did not translate into clinically significant differences in the nutrient profile of the Nutricam dietary records, only amorphous foods were notably over-estimated in energy content without the use of the DEAT (57kJ/day vs. 274kJ/day; p<0.001). A large proportion (89.6%) of the group found the DEAT helpful when quantifying food items contained in the Nutricam dietary records. The use of the DEAT reduced quantification error, minimising any potential effect on the estimation of energy and macronutrient intake. Study 4: Evaluation of the NuDAM The accuracy and inter-rater reliability of the NuDAM to assess energy and macronutrient intake was evaluated in a sample of 10 adults (6 males; age=61.2±6.9 years; BMI=31.0±4.5 kg/m2). Intake recorded using both the NuDAM and a weighed food record (WFR) was coded by three dietitians and compared with an objective measure of total energy expenditure (TEE) obtained using the doubly labelled water technique. At the group level, energy intake (EI) was under-reported to a similar extent using both methods, with the ratio of EI:TEE was 0.76±0.20 for the NuDAM and 0.76±0.17 for the WFR. At the individual level, four subjects reported implausible levels of energy intake using the WFR method, compared to three using the NuDAM. Overall, moderate to high correlation coefficients (r=0.57-0.85) were found across energy and macronutrients except fat (r=0.24) between the two dietary measures. High agreement was observed between dietitians for estimates of energy and macronutrient derived for both the NuDAM (ICC=0.77-0.99; p<0.001) and WFR (ICC=0.82-0.99; p<0.001). All subjects preferred using the NuDAM over the WFR to record intake and were willing to use the novel method again over longer recording periods. This research program explored two novel approaches which utilised distinct technologies to aid in the nutritional management of adults with T2DM. In particular, this thesis makes a significant contribution to the evidence base surrounding the use of PhRs through the development, trial and evaluation of a novel mobile phone photo/voice dietary record. The NuDAM is an extremely promising advancement in the nutritional management of individuals with diabetes and other chronic conditions. Future applications lie in integrating the NuDAM with other technologies to facilitate practice across the remaining stages of the nutrition care process.

A multilevel investigation of inequalities in clinical and psychosocial outcomes for women after breast cancer

Background In Australia, breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting Australian women. Inequalities in clinical and psychosocial outcomes have existed for some time, affecting particularly women from rural areas and from areas of disadvantage. We have a limited understanding of how individual and area-level factors are related to each other, and their associations with survival and other clinical and psychosocial outcomes. Methods/Design This study will examine associations between breast cancer recurrence, survival and psychosocial outcomes (e.g. distress, unmet supportive care needs, quality of life). The study will use an innovative multilevel approach using area-level factors simultaneously with detailed individual-level factors to assess the relative importance of remoteness, socioeconomic and demographic factors, diagnostic and treatment pathways and processes, and supportive care utilization to clinical and psychosocial outcomes. The study will use telephone and self-administered questionnaires to collect individual-level data from approximately 3, 300 women ascertained from the Queensland Cancer Registry diagnosed with invasive breast cancer residing in 478 Statistical Local Areas Queensland in 2011 and 2012. Area-level data will be sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics census data. Geo-coding and spatial technology will be used to calculate road travel distances from patients' residence to diagnostic and treatment centres. Data analysis will include a combination of standard empirical procedures and multilevel modelling. Discussion The study will address the critical question of: what are the individual- or area-level factors associated with inequalities in outcomes from breast cancer? The findings will provide health care providers and policy makers with targeted information to improve the management of women with breast cancer, and inform the development of strategies to improve psychosocial care for women with breast cancer.

A hybrid model for studying spatial aspects of infectious diseases

We consider a hybrid model, created by coupling a continuum and an agent-based model of infectious disease. The framework of the hybrid model provides a mechanism to study the spread of infection at both the individual and population levels. This approach captures the stochastic spatial heterogeneity at the individual level, which is directly related to deterministic population level properties. This facilitates the study of spatial aspects of the epidemic process. A spatial analysis, involving counting the number of infectious agents in equally sized bins, reveals when the spatial domain is nonhomogeneous.

'It had to be my choice' Indigenous smoking cessation and negotiations of risk, resistance and resilience

While Australia is considered a world leader in tobacco control, smoking rates within the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population have not declined at the same rate. This failure highlights an obvious shortcoming of mainstream anti-smoking efforts to effectively understand and engage with the socio-cultural context of Indigenous smoking and smoking cessation experiences. The purpose of this article is to explore the narrative accounts of 20 Indigenous ex-smokers within an urban community and determine the motivators and enablers for successful smoking cessation. Our findings indicated that health risk narratives and the associated social stigma produced through anti-smoking campaigns formed part of a broader apparatus of oppression among Indigenous people, often inspiring resistance and resentment rather than compliance. Instead, a significant life event and supportive relationships were the most useful predictors of successful smoking cessation acting as both a motivator and enabler to behavioural change. Indigenous smoking cessation narratives most commonly involved changing and reordering a person’s life and identity and autonomy over this process was the critical building block to reclaiming control over nicotine addiction. Most promisingly, at an individual level, we found the important role that individual health professionals played in encouraging and supporting Indigenous smoking cessation through positive rather than punitive interactions. More broadly, our findings highlighted the central importance of resilience, empowerment, and trust within health promotion practice.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods to used elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We asked subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decision between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that while on an aggregate(subject pool) level the results are (roughly) consistent, on an individual(within-subject) level,behavior is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low correlations. This again questions the reliability of experimental risk elicitation measures and the ability to use results from such methods to control for the risk aversion of subjects when explaining e�ects in other experimental games.